CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC TURBULENCE TO UNITED
STATES INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY
Introduction
The global economic situation in the next few years is predicted to be increasingly
difficult to rise. Although predicted to increase, the increase is not so significant in
overcoming global economic problems. At least in overcoming economic problems with
growth, inflation and interest rates that will stagnate for a long time as in developed
countries, or better known as secular stagnation.
The slowdown in economic growth especially after the 2008 economic recession
continues to bring the global economy into uncertainty or what is referred to as Volatility,
UnCertainly, Complexity, Ambiguity (VU-CA). The factors are not only based on the
international economy but also due to changes in international politics, international security
and global geopolitics. International economic aspects such as the end of the commodity
boom, the nomalization of China's economy and the slowdown of the US economy have kept
the global economic recovery under pressure. Throughout 2016, for example, global
economic growth was negative at 2.3 from 2015, which was able to grow 2.7.
The rise of the far-right in the United States and Europe has seen the world shift
towards protectionism. Britain's decision to leave the The European Union (Brexit) and
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election changed the constellation of
international economic policies, and hampered the agents of economic growth and stability.
Although the World Bank projected that in 2017 the global economy would be able to
grow by 2.7, the projected global economic growth until 2019 was only able to grow by 0.2
to 2.9. The weakness of global economic locomotives such as the US, China and the
European Union is exacerbated by the absence of alternative global economic buffers.
Emerging market countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or
Asian countries that are predicted to be able to replace the new locomotive of the global
economy are also experiencing an economic slowdown.
The slow economic growth of emerging market countries is not only based on poor
economic fundamentals (e.g. high dependence on commodities, such as Russia, which
experienced high fiscal burdens when oil prices fell for a long time), but also due to political
instability (e.g. in Brazil, India, Thailand and the Philippines), which led to depressed
economic performance.
The deteriorating performance of sovereign economies has also made the performance
of developed and emerging market corporations problematic. During 2016, for example, the
out-of-control increase in private debt ratios and the US sentencing of Deutche Bank at the
end of 2016 were bad news for the global economy.
The worrying situation is not only coming from China, but also from Germany. With
a fairly good economic performance and being the motor of the European economy with an
economic growth of 3.1 percent as of July July 2016 of 3.1 percent with an average European
growth of 1.6 percent, the threat of a crisis emanating from Germany has put the global
economy under increasing pressure. A US court imposed a US$14 billion fine on Deutsche
Bank for selling subprime mortgages, which led to the 2008 crisis. Threatened bankruptcy,
Deusche Bank's shares fell by 7 percent in 2016, causing global financial markets to take a
temporary hit. Eurostoxx stock index in the European Union for example corrected 1.86
percent at 2975.88. In addition, the Composite Stock Price Index, United States Stock
Exchange was also depressed at 36.76 points or equivalent to 0.68 percent at 5,352.13.
The Deutsche incident became an al- arm of an economic crisis in 2016 as the IMF
categorized Deutsche as a bank with a global scale that has potential systemic risks to the
global economy, although in the end the sanctions were compromised by a reduction in the
amount of fines by the US courts so as to avoid the bankruptcy of Deutsche Bank.
Concerns about both potential sources of new crises clearly make the prospects for
future global economic growth very steep. In 2016, major global events such as the UK's exit
from the European Union, the long-running weakening of global oil prices, the normalization
of the Chinese economy and the United States as the main 'driver' of the global economy
caused global economic growth to continue to be corrected from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent in
2016. In addition, events in 2017 such as the US attack on Syria, and the threat of war with
North Korea will add to the burden of moving the global economy away from the symptoms
of circular stagnation.
Signs of a new crisis are very likely given the uncertainty and ambiguity in the world
today. Based on the global economic situation above, this paper will examine how United
States is coping with the new crisis. VUCA global economy, and what United States should
do in response to the global economic downturn.
Literature Review
Alesina et al (1996) in Political Instability and Economic Growth state that political
instability affects economic growth, especially the coup aspect. Political and economic
relations strongly influence each other. 4 Based on Alesiana et al (1996), at least a few things
can be concluded, namely that: temporary changes in the state will affect economic growth;
there is no correlation between the state system (authoritarian or democratic) and economic
growth; and, the most important factor is political stability for economic growth. Alesina's
research concludes that out of 113 countries (1950-1982) with high political instability (even
towards failed states), experienced a significant decline in economic growth.
Countries in the Middle East and South Asia confirm the findings of Alesina et al.
With high volatility of regime change (political instability), economic performance declines.
In Thailand, for example, regime change through a coup resulted in political insta- bility that
led to negative economic growth.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
Economic Diplomacy
Economic diplomacy is part of the fulfillment of foreign policy. That is, the way the
state carries out foreign policy through economic activities, both in the form of sanctions and
economic activities benefits from economic activity. Furthermore, economic diplomacy is a
policy related to production, movement of goods and services, investment, and economic
cooperation.
The realization of national interests is the ultimate goal of economic diplomacy. The
scope of economic diplomacy, according to Perwita (2008), is at least three important issues:
first, the relationship between economics and politics, second, the relationship between the
environment and various domestic and international pressures, and finally the relationship
between state and non-state actors (private actors).
The scope of diplomacy that includes not only non-state actors puts economic
diplomacy into the multi-track diplomacy in diplomacy. Actors in economic diplomacy are
not only monopolized by state actors but also apply to the private sector such as multinational
corporations, chambers of commerce, and companies.
The implementation of economic diplomacy boils down to national interests, that is,
economic diplomacy is aimed at achieving national interests through foreign policy.7
Research Methods
This research uses a qualitative method, which is to produce descriptive data, namely
speech or writing, or observable behavior of the subject itself (Fuchran, 1998).
The approach of this research is critical discourse analysis. According to Badara
(2012), critical discourse analysis is an in-depth study that seeks to reveal activities, views,
and identities based on the language used in discourse.
The data presented in this study are secondary data. The data collection method uses
literature studies, both journals, books, and news.
Data Analysis and Discussion
Absence of Alternative Global Economic "Locomotive" and Emerging Market Problems
Developing countries that are growing positively are heavily influenced by the
presence of global economic locomotives such as China, America, Japan, and the European
Union. ASEAN, for example (with a major portion of exports to China with 15.2 percent,
Japan 10.5 percent, the European Union 10 percent and the United States 9.3 percent) is also
depressed and unable to become an alternative "locomotive" of the global economy, when the
global economic "locomotive" experiences economic turbulence.
The economic slowdown in advanced industrial countries - such as the US, EU, Japan
and China - provides an opportunity for peripheral countries to replace the role of industrial
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS). With the five countries'
economic share equivalent to 43 percent of the world's population, 30 percent of GDP and 17
percent of total global trade, BRICS is very feasible as an alternative "locomotive" of the
global economy and is projected to be the most important country in the world capable of
generating a GDP of USD 128.4 trillion by 2050.
Right at the eighth BRICS meeting on October 15-16, 2016 in Goa - India, in 2016,
the BRICS condition turned around, Brazil, South Africa and Russia experienced an
economic slowdown and even negative growth due to falling commodity prices in the global
market. With an economic foundation that still relies on the commodity sector, Brazil and
Russia were hit hard when oil prices plummeted beyond predictions (even up to 20 Dollars
per barrel).
The weakening of the global economic 'engine' and the military capabilities of the
BRICS countries provide opportunities for new su- perpower states to emerge. However, not
only the aspects of glo- bal economic turbulence, but also internal (and transnational)
conflicts and domestic stability, problems that continue to plague the BRICS today are
evolving into, for example, separatism and terrorism.
The problem of emerging markets with high political instability makes BRICS, which
in its formation was predicted to be able to become a global economic locomotive, must
recede before it can become a superpower. The main motor of BRICS, China for example,
continues to show a sharp economic correction. The World Bank corrected China's growth
from 6.9 percent in 2015 to 6.7 percent in 2016. China's economic normalization is predicted
to continue for a long time. In addition, China is still constrained by various kinds of
domestic political stability such as chaos with Taiwan, as well as conflicts in the China Sea
South with some ASEAN countries.
China's 'anarchic' attitude not only has the potential to slow down the work of
economic recovery, but also has the potential to reduce China's alliances in the region.
Likewise, what happened to Russia and Brazil, Russia's economic growth was corrected by
minus 1.2 percent and Brazil's minus 4.0 percent. Both continue to be hit by the decline in
global oil prices because the economic structure is still dependent on a commodity-based
economy.9 Practically only India showed a fairly impressive economic performance by
growing 7.6 percent amidst the continued correction of global economic growth in the figure
of 2.4 percent.
The BRICS' heavy burden is not only due to declining economic performance but also
political and security instability within the BRICS countries. Brazil experienced instability
due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Social unrest due to the impeachment process
undermined the legitimacy of Michel Temer's government.
Similarly, Russia has been relatively stable domestically, but the Ukraine conflict and
Russia's incursion into Syria have hampered economic recovery due to low oil prices. India
also has to deal with domestic and regional threats. The Thamil conflict and most recently
Nerenda Modi calling Pakistan the mother of terrorism still pose a threat to India's economic
reform process 2008, partly because United States economy was not strongly and deeply
integrated with the global economy. However, it cannot be denied that the 2008 crisis still
sent signals of a systemic crisis, especially in the financial sector after the failed clearing of
Bank Century.
How United States mitigates the threat of crisis is obviously difficult to predict. But at
least we can look at the 2008 global economic situation. The threat of the Deutsche Bank
crisis and China's debt is clearly very worrying, first Deutsche will hit the financial sector
which has the potential to be systemic while the China debt crisis will hit United States trade
because United States economy is quite strongly integrated with China's economy.
At least United States is still facing a crucial issue in the financial sector, namely
mitigating the impact of the Fed's interest rate or US Quantitaive Easing (QE), which has the
potential to result in substantial money outflows in the financial sector.10 Mitigating the
normalization of the US economy is important both through moderate monetary policy.
The high dependence on China and developed countries has made United States also
experience international economic pressures. The weakening of advanced industrialized
countries and BRICS as an alternative buffer for the global economy has forced United States
to expand its international economic market.
Growth is targeted to grow by 5.4 percent as stated by President Trump in his
introductory speech to the 2018 Draft State Budget in parliament. On the one hand, the 2018
Draft State Budget provides an optimistic and ambitious stance with a growth projection of
5.4 percent, but on the other hand, it shows that the government is projecting a conservative
target.
United States is still optimistic because in the midst of the global economic downturn
it is still able to accelerate its economic performance, but on the other hand the economic
growth projections give the message that the government is very conservative. With the tax
revenue target set at 9 percent from the previous projection of tax revenue in the 2017 Draft
State Budget of 18.4 percent for the realization of tax deposits throughout 2016. What the
government can do is to increase domestic consumption as a pillar of the economic structure,
as well as international trade as an important aspect of accelerating economic growth.
Basri, Rahardja and Fitrania (2016) revealed that to improve United States status as a
developed country, the way out is the industrialization process. United States must make the
transition from a commodity-based economy to manufacturing.
Economic growth, which from 2003 to 2009 was supported by commodities, is
gaining momentum when commodity prices on the international market were very expensive,
but declined in 2011 until now. China's economy continued to experience a decline in
economic growth which resulted in a weakening of global commodity demand. The
weakening of major global economic locomotives such as China, the US and the EU has hit
United States export performance. The way out is to open new markets to expand United
States export market.
There is no alternative but to look for new markets when looking at the future
prospects of the global economy using the predictions of the World Bank (global economy
grows 2.7 percent. developed countries grow 1.8 percent, and China stagnates at around 6.5
percent).
Beyond that, political challenges such as Brexit, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's
policies, and the strengthening of the EU's right-wing populism (which brings inward-looking
national interests with protectionist slogans) are challenges for the global economy (and
United States). United States international economy, which is still dependent on demand in
key countries such as China, Japan, the EU and the US, is clearly under pressure. The Central
Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that exports in 2016 fell by 3.95 percent or US$1.5 billion.
144.43 billion (YoY). 13 The option of expanding markets is a way out amidst the economic
slowdown and geopolitical dynamics in major countries.
Market Expansion Momentum
The southern world became an alter-Harvard's Center for International Development (CID),
Atlas of Economic Complexity, predicts that by 2024 India will grow by 7 percent, and East
Africa (including Uganda and Kenya) by 6 percent. In addition to India and East Africa,
Southeast Asia is predicted to become the new "locomotive" of the global economy while
China is predicted to grow only 4.3 percent. 14
This situation, at least in the context of international relations, benefits United States
both due to historical factors and political economy factors. Referring to history, United
States and southern countries have long friendships and diplomacy such as the African
Conference.
The momentum to revive Asia-Africa diplomacy with the rest of the world at least
gained momentum on the 60th anniversary of the Asia-Africa Conference in 2015, but
unfortunately the multilateral event that is very strategic to strengthen diplomacy with the rest
of the world is only limited to ceremonial. The strategic position of India and United States at
the Asia-Africa conference should be a "locomotive carriage" for the development of
countries in South Asia and Africa.
In addition, meetings such as the Indian Ocean Rim As- sociation (IORA) summit on
March 7, 2017 in Jakarta should be strategic in expanding access to the market. In addition to
historical factors, eco-nomical factors are an important factor in native new markets for
United States. Release building trade relations with southern countries. South Asia's
economic growth, which is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent, and East Africa at 5-8 percent in
2017 are potential markets for United States.
Despite its similarities as a country that relies on commodity goods, United States still
has a comparative advantage and can boost the export of the Basic Metal and Electronics
Machinery Industry (IMEDE). With the economic growth of south Asia and east Africa
impressively outpacing global economic growth, the market for IMEDE is promising as PT
PINDAD has exported Anoa, and excavators to several south Asian and African countries
such as Pakistan and Senegal, and PT INKA has supplied 250 train cars to Bangladesh
Railways. The successful flight of the N-219 is also a momentum to expand the market to
Africa and Asia Pacific which continues to experience an increase in pioneer routes with the
need for N-219 model aircraft.
Challenges: Domestic and Emerging Market Problems
Two years of government with an economic reform agenda that continues to be
pushed by the government through economic policy packages and expansion of government
spending on infrastructure indicates that the government continues to spur the economic
engine of United States, but fundamental homework is still a challenge for the government.
The crucial homework is to shift from a heavy reliance on commodities in
international trade to a manufacturing-based economy. In makro, United States international
trade structure is still dominated by co-modities at 79.6 percent, manu- factures at 8.6
percent, and services at 11.8 percent (2015).
World Bank Quarterly Report II (2016), for example, states that United States
aggregate international trade to the global market over 15 years has only recorded a value of
0.6 percent. 16 Despite experiencing non-traditional threats such as terrorism and regional
instability, overall it is still relatively safe. What drains energy is domestic political
instability. A series of disturbances at the end of the year, such as the 212 demonstrations and
the threat of a coup attempt, sent a bad message to economic reform efforts. The
government's "failure" to ease domestic political conditions will further complicate efforts to
improve the economy.
Challenge
The challenges of working in the South A sia and African markets are also quite dire.
The most influential factors are the politics and geo-politics of the region. South Asia and
Africa have do- mestic and geopolitical issues like India.
India's future political stability is still prone to instability. Apart from the conflict with
the Kurds, India's security stability is prone to conflict with Pakistan, as well as the end of the
Nerendra Modi government. However, the general election process will result in India's
political uncertainty, albeit temporary. Likewise, in Africa, the South Sudan conflict and the
escalation in Burundi will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape.
affecting the regional economy in Southern Africa.
Countries with a tendency towards political instability such as South Asia and East
Africa will also affect their economic development. Roubini, et al's thesis is a guide for
United States when it comes to making South Asia and Africa the new markets of United
States international economy.
Conclusions
The uncertainty of the global economy requires United States international political
economy policy response in order to mitigate the threat of a new crisis. In addition, amidst
the weak economic performance of developed countries, which are the main markets for
United States exports such as China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan, it
provides momentum for United States to expand non-traditional export markets to southern
regions such as South Asia and Africa, which are predicted to continue to experience high
economic growth above global economic growth.
Market expansion to the south is not only economically beneficial but also historically
and politically impactful for United States. United States has a relatively good historical
relationship with the South through the Asian-African Conference.
The challenge of expanding the South Asia and Af- rica market expansion agenda has
considerable risks related to political stability that will affect economic performance. Strong
domestic political instability and the threat of conflict make economic performance uncertain.
Under such conditions, the expansion of United States export markets outside developed
countries such as South Asia and Af- rica is likely to have a significant impact on economic
performance Africa remains an alternative market for United States exports.
