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WHAT? WHO? WHY?

What exactly is terrorism? This may seem like a very simplistic question. But since the concept of terrorism is essentially a social construct, that people have various definitions of the term. In addition, many contend that “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.” Many of the actions of the early American Colonists against Native American peoples or even acts of sabotage committed against the British in the Revolutionary War could be described as terrorism in other contexts. People who are labeled “terrorists” today are not likely to describe themselves that way.

But generally speaking, terrorism has an extremely negative connotation, and one universally associated with death and destruction. Terrorists murder innocent people in cold blood, egregiously violating the civil rights and freedoms of American men, women, and children.

Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century

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None of these attempted attacks and planned attacks were linked to extensive networks such as those that pose a threat today, and none resulted in mass death or destruction. This is not to say that the United States does not have a lengthy history of terrorist attacks, but very few have involved any types of CBRN weapons. To see the effects that a full-blown WMD terrorist attack could have, one must examine attacks that have occurred in other countries. The use of Sarin nerve gas in a subway in Tokyo by the religious cult Aum Shinrikyo, which killed twelve people and injured over five thousand, shows how simple but devastating a WMD attack can be if conducted in the right place at the right time.

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When examining how terrorists have successfully used WMDs against civilian populations, there have been very few examples on U.S. soil.

 

Past Uses of WMDs by Terrorists

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EASIER METHODS

ACCESS TO INFORMATION

ELEMENT OF SURPRISE

HIGH VISIBILITY

 

If a WMD attack were to occur, it would be highly visible. What information should be made public in the case of a terrorist attack, and what should remain classified? Decisions concerning what should be made public and what should remain classified may need to be made under great pressure and at the spur of the moment. A distinction must be made between protecting the public and keeping them informed. In other words, much would be involved in a terrorist attack using WMDs—perhaps more than we have yet to realize.

 

Of the hundreds of terrorist groups that have been formed over the past century, only a handful have used or attempted to use WMDs, and only a few more have declared any interest in doing so. Nonetheless, experts in the field have insisted that this number will grow, and that we are almost certain to see a WMD-related nuclear attack within our lifetimes.

 

 

The Future of WMD-related Terrorism

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WHAT? WHO? WHY?

People who commit acts of terrorism tend to be highly discontent with their government or society and committed to a cause that affronts it. Most successful terrorists have a healthy amount of support from the general public but still cling to society’s edge. For example, at the current time the two greatest terrorist threats in the United States come from Islamist groups and right-wing extremists. The former consider themselves to be at perpetual war with anyone who disagrees with their views on Islam (including other Muslims), while the latter seek a reactionary return to a previous state of society and government that many Americans might view as regressive.

While terrorists may consider themselves to be at war with their enemies, their targets are typically not military, but non- combatants and civilians. This is where the “terror” element comes from—the psychological impact that their actions have on civilians, who are made to live in constant fear. This reduces the confidence that this population has in their government’s ability to protect them.

Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century

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Tensions rose between Rajneesh and the local community, and when an election was to be held to decide on whether or not the commune would be allowed Rajneesh and his followers resorted to terrorist acts to influence this election’s outcome. The most extreme involved the cult’s adherents spraying a salmonella-tainted liquid on the salad bars of several local restaurants. In the end, over 750 people had to be hospitalized for poisoning (although none died). In the end, Rajneesh was convicted of immigration fraud and deported to India.

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When examining how terrorists have successfully used WMDs against civilian populations, there have been very few examples on U.S. soil.

 

Past Uses of WMDs by Terrorists

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WHAT? WHO? WHY?

What causes terrorism? Terrorists often claim that they are oppressed, perhaps due to some financial or sociological connotation, and among the lower echelons of larger terrorist groups there may be some credence to this claim. People from marginalized sectors of society often find the terrorist life attractive and view it as a way to make a difference and achieve a level of self-importance otherwise inaccessible to them. However, virtually all major terrorist groups are led by educated men with substantial wealth. For example, al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden was born to a very wealthy family and had a personal net worth estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Worldwide, over 300 groups pose terrorist threats, some of which have fewer than 50 members; therefore, familiarizing oneself with every single group is virtually impossible, especially with new groups emerging regularly. The fewer than one dozen major groups are where attacks are likely to come from, threatening the nation’s security in the foreseeable future. These are the groups that have become so large and influential that they have been able to evade even government forces. With many groups operating in multiple countries and even continents, containment seems to be the only solution to halt their spread.

Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century

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Religious-based terrorism gets a lot of attention in today’s world, and it is true that about one-half of the world’s terrorist groups are religiously motivated. Islamic groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State pose the greatest threats to U.S. national security today, but at various times in history the most dangerous religious-based groups have included Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Buddhists, and many others. Atheist and secular groups have shown to be just as dangerous.

It is important to remember than no matter how a group represents itself or what it purports its beliefs to be, power and politics are the true motivators behind terrorism. Religious belief is merely the reasoning and justification employed by these terrorists. These individuals desire nothing more than the power to define the environment in which others will live.

 

 

In the sphere of Islamic extremism, two organizations that have used terror extensively as a means of accomplishing these goals have been al-Qaeda, a group founded by Saudi Arabian jihadist Osama bin Laden in 1988, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, also known as Daesh), which emerged in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

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Al-Qaeda

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EASIER METHODS

ACCESS TO INFORMATION

ELEMENT OF SURPRISE

HIGH VISIBILITY

 

Why have there been so few attempts by terrorist groups to use or acquire WMDs? Homeland security experts have debated this question thoroughly. Some believe that technical constraints draw the terrorist away from their use, while others say that the terrorists’ operating environment is the reason why we have not seen more non-state WMD activity. Still others cite strategic constraint as the reason. The planning of a terrorist attack may include cost benefit analyses, and the use of a CBRN weapon may be determined to have very few strategic benefits compared to other, more conventional weapons. Will a CBRN weapon help a terrorist achieve their objectives faster or more effectively than other means? For most terrorist groups, the answer has been no.

 

Of the hundreds of terrorist groups that have been formed over the past century, only a handful have used or attempted to use WMDs, and only a few more have declared any interest in doing so. Nonetheless, experts in the field have insisted that this number will grow, and that we are almost certain to see a WMD-related nuclear attack within our lifetimes.

 

 

The Future of WMD-related Terrorism

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LESSON TWO: NON-STATE ACTORS’ EXPERIENCE WITH WMDS

In the last three Presidential elections, all candidates agreed that the most significant threat to the United States today was WMD terrorism, initially identified as an external religious extremist threat, but evolving today to also include the lone wolf individual. With the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons by state entities largely under control thanks to treaties and agreements made between most of the world’s states, the chance that a WMD may end up in the hands of a non-state actor (such as a terrorist) still looms.

In the past, the complex nature of WMDs and the materials and technology required to create them ensured a safe distance from the possibility that hostile groups or individuals would procure them and use them against U.S. citizens. But today, it is known that many hostile groups from throughout the world have sought the materials to build these weapons. Even if unlikely, any chance at all that one of these groups may develop and employ a WMD should be taken very seriously.

Topics to be covered include:

Terrorism in the twenty-first century Past uses of WMDs by terrorists How terrorists might access WMDs Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State Presidential Decision Directive 39 WMDs and the National Response Framework The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT) The future of WMD-related terrorism

Introduction

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STAFFORD ACT PRESIDENTIAL DECISION DIRECTIVE 39

The fear that non-state actors such as terrorists may acquire or develop WMDs has increased in the twenty-first century, but it has existed for much longer. In 1988, the Stafford Act elucidated the measures that would be taken in the event of a disaster or emergency, making a clear distinction between the two. While a “disaster” is defined as including a fire, flood, or explosion regardless of its cause (as well as a variety of natural catastrophes), an emergency can be any situation in which the U.S. President declares that federal assistance is necessary for mitigation.

A nuclear attack on the United States by either an enemy state or a non-state actor would be likely to be designated a disaster, since it would probably entail an explosion and possibly fires or floods. A chemical or biological attack would be more likely to be designated an “emergency,” which the president would be able to address directly under the Stafford Act.

The Stafford Act has been supplemented since its passage. President Ronald Reagan’s Executive Order 12656, which identified the functions that are necessary during any U.S. national security emergency and the development of plans for performing these functions, was the first of these. This EO notably grants the President a large amount of power in the mitigation of such an emergency; in the case of a major WMD attack, he or she would even be authorized to invoke martial law.

Laws and Acts

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Barely a month after the 9/11 attacks, letters stuffed with weaponized anthrax were sent through the mail in the United States, killing five and sicken dozens more. First believed to be the work of Islamic terrorists, the American scientist Bruce E. Ivins was later found to be the culprit.

In 2008, materials and instructions for a dirty bomb were found in the home of James Cummings, a right-wing extremist from Maine who had been killed by his wife in a domestic violence-related homicide.

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When examining how terrorists have successfully used WMDs against civilian populations, there have been very few examples on U.S. soil.

 

Past Uses of WMDs by Terrorists

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EASIER METHODS

ACCESS TO INFORMATION

ELEMENT OF SURPRISE

HIGH VISIBILITY

 

Nonetheless, a 2010 poll found that 53 percent of Americans believe that a major terrorist attack will occur on U.S. soil involving nuclear weapons by 2050 (Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2010). Many experts agree that these types of fears related to potential WMD events in the future are not exaggerated. Acquiring WMDs have been made easier due the availability of suppliers and to Information Age technologies, even as countries buckle down on security measures to prevent the proliferation of these weapons by terrorists. According to David Kay:

 

“Only a blind, deaf and dumb terrorist group could have survived the last five years and not been exposed at least to the possibility of the use of WMD, while the more discerning terrorists would have found some tactically brilliant possibilities already laid out on public record” (Kay, 2001).

 

Of the hundreds of terrorist groups that have been formed over the past century, only a handful have used or attempted to use WMDs, and only a few more have declared any interest in doing so. Nonetheless, experts in the field have insisted that this number will grow, and that we are almost certain to see a WMD-related nuclear attack within our lifetimes.

 

 

The Future of WMD related Terrorism

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While this may be considered the most successful attack using CBRN weapons against U.S. citizens, others have been thwarted. In 1985, a plan by the far-right survivalist group The Covenant, the Sword, and the Arm of the Lord to poison water supplies in several major cities with potassium cyanide was discovered through a federal raid on the group’s headquarters in Arkansas’s Ozark Mountains.

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When examining how terrorists have successfully used WMDs against civilian populations, there have been very few examples on U.S. soil.

 

Past Uses of WMDs by Terrorists

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SUPPLIES NUCLEAR FACILITIES BIOTERRORISM

As far as bioterrorism is concerned, a terrorist could potentially utilize any germ, bacteria, or virus to use in a WMD. But according to homeland security experts, there are certain biological agents that are far more likely to be employed in a WMD-related terrorist attack. These are the agents that are most widely available to terrorists and can be disseminated with greater ease, such as anthrax, smallpox, and botulism. In past attacks, biological agents have most commonly been disseminated through the air and through pharmaceutical contamination, although food and water contamination, and even direct contact through injection or other means are feasible. Biological and chemical attacks are most lethal within enclosed public spaces, as evidenced by the 1995 attacks on the Tokyo subway, although agents have the potential to be spread to more people if released in open areas (even if this type of dissemination results in the dilution of the agents).

It is highly unlikely, however, that terrorists would be successful in stealing (or illegally purchasing) a very powerful CBRN weapon in its intact state. Each known nuclear state maintains a stringent security regimen and accounting system in order to track every device in its stockpile. Multi-layer systems are also deployed to prevent unauthorized detonation of these weapons. In the United States, these security measures have increased exponentially since the 9/11 attacks. Nonetheless, in less stable areas of the world the potential for even the theft of a nuclear weapon cannot be ruled out.

How Terrorists Might Access WMDs

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Possibly the most notable occurred in Oregon in 1984. Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh, a cult leader who invented the practice of “dynamic meditation,” amassed many followers as well as enemies in his native India before fleeing to the United States in the early 1980s. When Rajneesh purchased a 100-acre ranch in Oregon and attempted to use it to establish a spiritual commune, the idea was met with friction.

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When examining how terrorists have successfully used WMDs against civilian populations, there have been very few examples on U.S. soil.

 

Past Uses of WMDs by Terrorists

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An attack on a nuclear facility would also have the potential for great terror and devastation. Damaging a reactor or waste fuel-cooling pond could result in an enormous release of radioactivity not unlike the detonation of a nuclear bomb. Terrorists might also disrupt the safe operation of such a facility. By impeding its water supply, for instance, may cause the reactor to become overheated with no water available for cooling. However, this would also be unlikely to occur in the developed world, as most nuclear facilities receive the same level of security as state arsenals.

SUPPLIES NUCLEAR FACILITIES BIOTERRORISM

How Terrorists Might Access WMDs

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EASIER METHODS

ACCESS TO INFORMATION

ELEMENT OF SURPRISE

HIGH VISIBILITY

 

The other question that remains is whether and how the United States would be able to meet a WMD emergency were it to occur. The threat of WMDs has loomed over the nation’s emergency management agencies more heavily than ever before since the 9/11 attacks, but most major disasters and emergencies that have been handled by the protocols established to respond to such an emergency have involved natural phenomena such as hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms, and floods. Unlike these types of emergencies, a terrorist attack cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy. Terrorists thrive on the element of surprise.

 

Of the hundreds of terrorist groups that have been formed over the past century, only a handful have used or attempted to use WMDs, and only a few more have declared any interest in doing so. Nonetheless, experts in the field have insisted that this number will grow, and that we are almost certain to see a WMD-related nuclear attack within our lifetimes.

 

 

The Future of WMD-related Terrorism

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