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Maritime Energy Issues

We live in a world where energy --- both from traditional means and from renewable sources - will continue to present a target for threats. There are a

growing number of energy resources – Lique�ed Natural Gas (LNG), oil and wind energy all o�er a high value target. This will not change in the future.

Of these sources, LNG and oil are a product of o�shore e�orts, such as the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Once secured, these energies are

transported by sea. Both are transported by large ocean going vessels, or when moved along the Western Rivers of the United States by barge. The

growth in the recovery of these energy systems means that countries are increasingly dependent on the security of maritime energy infrastructure to

meet both their in-country needs and a growing appetite world-wide. The treat vectors to these systems could be everything from a suicide boat

bomb, to a denial of service cyber attack. But what are the real e�ects on such an attack?

In the case of an LNG carrier, the impacts have been widely discussed in the literature with very di�erent conclusions reached. Would such an attack be

a true "city killer" event? Many academics have written that this threat scenario is hype? Only additional academic rigor, analysis and modeling will

support a conclusion the majority will agree on.

One of the truly overlooked issues that will present new challenges are the increased transport of LNG within the Western Rivers of the United States

by barge. There is an increase in the number of transfer stations that are being built which underscore more opportunities for vulnerability.

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The Vessel

Perhaps one of the biggest most persistent treats has been the possibility of a piracy attack on merchant vessels. The trend for the next ten years,

however, is evaluated to be very di�erent than the activity observed in the last decade.

Bueger (2015) noted, "The international naval program directly a�ects and improves law enforcement in the region’s waters. The global prosecution

program supported at sea by the work of naval forces and on land by the UNODC’s counter-piracy program equally has direct impact on the quality of

law enforcement". Continued Bueger (2015), "the e�ective persecution of piracy suspects. If only indirectly, we might also want to include the self-

defensive measures of the industry, notably the use of armed guards on board vessels as a contribution to law enforcement."

What about small boat attacks inside a port similar to what USS COLE experienced in 2001? Is this possible nowadays? All one has to do is look at the

United States for a start to addressing this potential future issue. How many recreational boats can be found here? The number hovers between 15.5

and 15.8 million depending on source. These are the vessels that are just registered. It would not take much to pack a small recreation boat with high

explosive in the covered bow, at a remote location, on a trailer. Launch the boat on a busy summer weekend day. Blend in with all the other tra�c and

conduct an attack.

Credit: Attack on USS COLE

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The World Economy

The �nal issue that needs to be considered when looking at threats in the future is the world itself. The world economy will continue to grow, as will the

dependence on MORE short-sea shipping, a cost-e�ective and e�cient methodology of moving goods, especially within the European Union where

oil is expensive and traditional ground and rail transportation snarled.

New ports will be constructed with greater capacity, especially as the Chinese enter Africa and South America. As the population grows, the need to

move large amounts of food products becomes more critical. More ships transiting, more ships in port, and more overall activity present opportunities

in which threats are current, both man-made and naturally occurring.

In 2023, issues plaguing the intersection between the Maritime Transportation System and the world economy are dock worker lockouts, labor issues,

and worker shortages. These three issues have impacted cargo sitting at terminals and sea. The lack of tracker trailer drivers has also had an impact. In

2002, the U.S. economy was a�ected by a dock worker lockout that saw hundreds of ships “qued up” o� the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. In

2022, as the ports started to emerge from the impact of COVID-19, 22,000 West Coast dock workers were working under an expired contract. The

licensed truck driver issue is signi�cant: “According to the American Trucking Association, the road freight industry is heading towards a shortage of

160,000 drivers in the next eight years” (Conqueror Freight Network).

So, what does the future hold? The world's predictions and analysis still won't get it perfectly suitable. Why? Because there is always uncertainty and

strategic surprise. We just can't predict everything....but we can give the future of port security and its' associated issues a good review...and prepare

the best we can!

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References

Antonellini, L. (2022). IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE CRUISE INDUSTRY. 27. 5 - 20.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357867228_IMPACT_OF_COVID-19_ON_THE_CRUISE_INDUSTRY/citation/download

Bueger, C. (2015). Learning from piracy: Future challenges of maritime security governance. Forthcoming in Global A�airs 1(1).

https://www.cardi�.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_�le/0013/42412/dr-christian-bueger.pdf

Conqueror Freight Network. (2022). A report on the ongoing truck driver shortage in the USA.

https://www.conquerornetwork.com/blog/2022/04/12/a-report-on-the-ongoing-truck-driver-shortage-in-the-usa/

International Maritime Organization. (2020). Resolution MSC. 428(98).

https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Security/Documents/Resolution%20MSC.428(98).pdf

Love, A. (2020, June). AI in shipping: areas to watch in 2020. https://www.ship-technology.com/features/ai-in-shipping/

1894. (2021). Modeling and Optimization of a Maritime Transportation System for an O�shore Oil Platform. https://www.anylogic.com/modeling-

and-optimization-of-a-maritime-transport-system-for-an-o�shore-oil-platform/

Loiaconi, S. (2021, Oct). Biden weighs use of National Guard at ports, but deployment 'unlikely'. https://wset.com/news/nation-world/biden-

weighs-use-of-national-guard-at-ports-but-deployment-unlikely

Mille�ori, L.M., Braca, P., Zissis, D. et al. (2021). COVID-19 impact on global maritime mobility. Sci Rep 11, 18039. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-

021-97461-7

PortStrategy.com. (2013). Preparing ports for the future: Making the most of a vital resource.

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/europe/exclusive-preparing-ports-for-the-future-making-the-most-of-a-vital-

resource#sthash.S3cM0ciZ.dpuf

APUS does not maintain or control third-party websites and is not responsible for the accuracy or accessibility of their content.

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Port Infrastructure, Including Cyber

What will change in the future ports that will present a possible threat vector or vulnerability that can be exploited? Well, for one thing, and perhaps

the most obvious, an individual port will grow in its dependence on its' cyber system not only for internal operations but to stay "connected" to the

outside world 7x24. Automation will be the key as the engagement between humans and machines grows. This will open a new set of threat vectors

as speed and e�ciency will be pushed to their breaking point. In the Merchant Marine business, "time is indeed money." The faster and more

e�ciently a ship can get into a port and unloaded...the more money a company (and the hosting port) make.

On January 1, 2021, perhaps the most over-arching change to Maritime Cyber Security requirements will come into force as the International Maritime

Organization (IMO) enforces Resolution MSC. 428(98) that “encourages administrations to ensure that cyber risks are appropriately addressed in

existing safety management systems (as de�ned in the International Safety Management (ISM) Code) no later than the �rst annual veri�cation of the

company’s Document of Compliance (DOC) a�er January 1, 2021.” The document states: “Maritime organizations now need to follow the guidance

and recommendations outlined by the IMO to ensure their vessel operations are protected from potentially catastrophic cyberattacks.”

In addition, future ports will need to consider everything from emissions standards to maintaining a healthy ecosystem. Natural threats from climate

change will need to be considered and addressed. The world is getting warmer, and the oceans are rising. The population, mainly located along the

coast, will face this threat vector. Communities are becoming increasingly densely populated, and a shoreline community's ability to develop and

sustain resiliency is more expensive. In this vain, the Maritime Security issue is a subset of national security.

In 2017, Christian Bueger and Timothy Edwards, writing in the November 2017 International A�airs, noted:

The concept of maritime security as a distinct subset of security thinking— including but not con�ned to existing themes of sea power and

maritime law—is a relatively recent creation. In many ways, the study of the seas has lagged considerably behind developments in mainstream

security studies. The latter discipline’s traditional focus on states, armed forces, and war has been commonly ‘broadened’ and ‘deepened’ to

incorporate a much wider set of security issues, domains, and activities since the early 1990s at least. These have included so-called ‘new’

security issues such as terrorism, transnational organized crime, or environmental degradation, a�ecting a diverse range of actors including but

not limited to the state, and have been characterized by multisectoral responses such as the increasing tendency to link security with

development.

In 2023, decision-makers need to look at published studies that have indicated that the very location of a port makes it susceptible to natural and

human-made disasters. Think about the Naval infrastructure in the port of Norfolk, Virginia, and the e�ect sea level rise would have on a Category V

hurricane. This is just one of many examples. There is more and more of a focus on these types of ports as they will inherently have some level of

vulnerability to signi�cant disruptions. This is the damage a sustained event would have on the port of Houston and to the economies of their

associated cities and surrounding communities.

Not to be discounted, ports will also face the potential of terrorist actions, from suicide bombers and truck bombs to maritime containers �lled with

chemical, biological, or radiological materials, making a weapon of mass destruction. These are all concerns.

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Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue online event featuring a discussion with VADM John B. Nowell, Jr., USN, Chief of Naval

Events

VIDEO ON DEMAND

Online Event: UPDATE: Maritime Security Dialogue: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in the U.S. Navy

October 1, 2020 • 2:00 – 3:00 pm EDT

Online Event: UPDATE: Maritime Security Dialogue: Diversity, Equity, and IncluOnline Event: UPDATE: Maritime Security Dialogue: Diversity, Equity, and Inclu……

Personnel, on diversity, equity, and inclusion in the U.S. Navy.

The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation's most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.

There is a new Naval Institute Essay Contest focused on the topic of diversity and inclusion in the Sea Services. Deadlines for essay submissions will be 31 January 2021 and you can find additional details at https://www.usni.org/essaycontests. 

This event is made possible by support from Huntington Ingalls Industries.

Event Partners

PROGRAMS & PROJECTS

VADM John B. Nowell, Jr., USN

Chief of Naval Personnel

VADM Peter H. Daly, USN (Ret.)

Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Naval Institute

Alice Hunt Friend

International Security Program

Maritime Security Dialogue

Center for Strategic and International Studies

1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20036

Tel: 202.887.0200

Fax: 202.775.3199

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H. Andrew Schwartz

Chief Communications Officer

202.775.3242

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202.775.3173

[email protected]

See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details.

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Introduction: Future Maritime/ Port Security Issues

In this �nal e�ort, we will consider future maritime and port security issues and their associated threats. The best way to address this question is to look

at this over-arching issue from �ve di�erent perspectives. These include:

Remember that, based on several studies and current data, ports worldwide may get signi�cantly busy in the next decade, straining an already

stressful logistics chain. For example, Portstrategy.com (2013) noted, "Europe depends heavily on its seaports, which handle 74% by volume of the

goods exported or imported to the EU and from the rest of the world. Not only are they important for foreign trade and local growth, ports are the key

for developing an integrated and sustainable transport system, as we work to get trucks o� our saturated land transport corridors and make more use

of short sea shipping." Continued Port Strategy (2013), "Even with only modest assumptions of economic growth, port cargo volumes are expected to

rise by 57% by 2030, almost certainly causing congestion. In 20 years, Europe’s hundreds of seaports will face major challenges in performance,

investment needs, sustainability, human resources, and integration with port cities and regions."

The port itself and its associated infrastructure including cyber•

The vessel itself (as a target)•

Maritime energy issues•

The world economy•

The Role of Modeling Within the MTS, AI, and the COVID Pandemic•

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