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The Role of Modeling, AI, and the Pandemic

One thing that has continued to grow is the use of modeling with the MTS, the use of arti�cial intelligence and machine learning, and the ongoing

e�ect of the pandemic. Modeling has increased in its use, especially in o�shore oil platform activities. O�ered the 1894 company when describing

MTS modeling:

The simulation modeling allowed the experts to reveal that the expansion of accessibility of oil terminals has the highest positive e�ect on the

system e�ciency of all the other measures. This can be achieved by implementing a range of technical measures and by using the short weather

windows for tanker cargo operations that allow for increasing the total duration of weather windows by 10-15%. However, the crucial point for

system e�ciency was not the entire duration of accessibility periods but the availability of a tanker to approach the platform at a desired

moment. (1894)

Similar to Modeling, Arti�cial Intelligence has increased within the industry.

As the world’s Maritime Transportation System grows in complexity and dependency, maximizing all components is more critical than ever. Why

Arti�cial intelligence? Simply, it has been proven that using AI can deliver considerable bene�ts to the maritime supply chain and shipping operations.

This conclusion is being validated worldwide in ports and the maritime global commons.

Some advantages of using AI within the MTS include reduced cost, less overall risk, improved forecasting (which makes shoreside logistics much more

predictable), and faster deliveries through more optimized routes (including making decisions that shi� ports while merchant ships are en route to

their next port of call.

Writing in Ship Technology, Alexander Love noted in his piece “AI in shipping: areas to watch in 2020”, “Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line) has started a

project to research into AI’s capabilities to improve the quality of shipping services. The research is being carried out in collaboration with fellow

Japanese organizations Hiroshima University, Marubeni Corporation, and the National Institute of Maritime, Port and Aviation Technology (MPAT). The

project will use predictive models for maritime logistics and market conditions,” Love (2020) noted. “As for what they anticipate the biggest challenge

with AI, 68% stated that it was a lack of skills in the technology. While around a third said, there was a lack of cases that had proven the advantages for

business. But as the technology is still relatively new, this is hardly surprising”.

And then there is COVID. The impact of COVID-19 on the MTS has been signi�cant, especially in cruising. In 2021, Mille�ori, Braca, Zissis, et al. added,

“Similar to commercial aviation, the maritime tourism industry was the �rst and most-a�ected tra�c segment, with cases of COVID-19 among cruise

ships passengers and crew members reported all around the world, from Yokohama (Japan) to Corfu (Greece) and Sydney (Australia). To put it

bluntly…the COVID pandemic delivered a gut punch to the cruise ship industry worldwide. In 2023, the industry has rebounded – but there was a

cost. Experienced workers sought other opportunities. Wrote Luca Antonellini (2002, Jan), “The outbreak of COVID‐19 onboard several cruise ships,

as well as the sudden termination of hundreds of voyages, signi�cantly a�ected the perception and promotion of cruising as a ‘safe’ holiday (Holland

et al., 2020; Pan et al. 2020). The cruise industry has also been a�ected by a narrative in the wider media of cruise ships as ‘petri dishes’ (Awoniyi,

2020), and this lasting negative image may be di�cult to overcome.”

Credit: Cruise ships laid up during COVID

The overall e�ect of COVID-19 on MTS stability has been and continues to be into 2023. “The impact on this market segment might also be more

enduring than in other sectors, as psychological e�ects might come into play in addition to restrictive measures, with passengers being less inclined to

travel on large crowded ships. In the second half of March 2020, most European cruise terminals partially or, in some cases, wholly suspended

operations (e.g., 19 March in Italy, 20 March in Croatia, and 25 March in Spain) (Mille�ori et al., 2021).

Even today, there are still supply chain implications. In late 2021, President Biden proposed using the National Guard to help the Los Angeles Long

Beach port ease the bottleneck due to a lack of employees…a carryover from COVID. But was this the correct answer? According to Rob Hand�eld,

director of the Supply Chain Resource Cooperative at North Carolina State University, “the focus on port backlogs and sta� shortages obscures deeper

challenges throughout the supply chain, and politicians might not appreciate how much work needs to be done. Even if goods start moving through

ports more e�ciently, disruptions will likely arise at other points in the chain” (Loiaconi).

In late June, cargo containers were stacked at Shenzhen's Yantian port, China's largest container terminal, because of a COVID-19 outbreak. Now,

COVID has hit the country's second-busiest port. Marketwatch.

So, what does the future hold in 2023? The world's predictions and analysis still won't get it perfectly suitable. Why? Because there is always

uncertainty and strategic surprise. We just can't predict everything, but we can give the future of port security and its' associated issues a good review

and prepare the best we can.

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