The Concept of Probability is the likelihood that a specific event or outcome will
happen. A sample space of a probability experiment is all of the possible
outcomes or results of an experiment. An experiment is when an event is
conducted which can produce numerous outcomes. An outcome is the result of an
experiment. These concepts can be useful as demonstrated in a coin toss. There
are two possible outcomes in the experiment. In this case, the coin can either
land on heads or tails. In my personal experience, I enjoy playing roulette. My
desired outcome would be to win by betting on even. Ideally, I would double my
money in one roll and walk away from the table. There are 38 spaces on an
American Roulette wheel. The sample space is 38. The likelihood of me placing a
bet on even, winning, and walking away is 47.37%. The plan for me to double
my money this way is not totally flawed, though the likelihood of me winning on
one roll is less than 50%.The Concept of Probability is the likelihood that a
specific event or outcome will occur. This is determined by using mathematical
equations with tests or experiments. Without the listed examples we can not find
probable outcomes. We would have no idea how to create an idea of what could
happen or become. . My personal experience with probability was when my
husband and I tried to conceive our children. I have a condition called
endometriosos I have been battling it since puberty. The percent or chances of me
becoming pregnant are a very low 10 percent chance. I was told the odds were
against me that 90% of people with my degree of this never had children. We
consulted a fertility specialist who helped us conduct our treatment plan or
experiment. We had a lot of hoops to jump. I had to track the ovulation, record
temperatures and activities and then take medication every 28 days. This increased
our probability to 75%. It was a very long two years with many tears shed but
our experiment was successful and we have two beautiful children. My probability
was low but the odds were in our favor. It's a little more in depth than rolling
a dice and having a set amount of chances at rolling a specific number. One out
of 6 chances that you will get a six or 50 percent chance that you can get an
even number. Probabilities may come from classical probabilities, such as the
experiment with the die and it may come through experience. The probability of
an outcome will always be a number that is between 0 and 1. An outcome is
the result of an experiment. The set of all possible outcome is defined as the
space of an experiment. Probability is useful to us in many ways such as
business, finances, and just over all life. In my personal work experience I work
in logistics receiving and shipping freight from a ware house and probability is
something I use on a daily basis. One example of how we utilize probability is
by making predictions on how much to load on a truck based on previous
shipments and predicting the possible weight off the freight. For example,
receiving 100 cases of laundry detergent is a huge difference than receiving 100
cases of pillows. Having this kind of information helps guide and predict exactly
how much of a shipment can be loaded at a time. The concept of probability is
that a number reflects the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur.
Probability can be expressed as proportions that range from 0 to 1, and also as
percentages ranging from 0% to 100%. A notion of a probability experiment is a
coin toss. This gives two possible outcomes which are heads or tails. The
probability of flipping heads or tails is ½. A sample space of a probability
experiment is the set of all possible outcomes or results of that experiment.
In my professional life I work in the fraud department of a very popular and
well known bank as a Sr. Fraud Analyst. My job is to look at a transaction on
an account, analyze the account as a whole, and make a determination of if there
is a risk of fraud on the customer’s account. Since these decisions are mostly
made by me, there is a probability of the transaction being fraudulent or not.
This gives a probability that I could be correct or incorrect but it is very hard to
keep up with the percentages given the many factors that go into our metrics.
probability is a chance , a concept like dice rolled to a ramdom experiment. The
result is the outcome of the experiment. For me this reminds me playing the
lotto. You play the lotto and might buy 100 tickets or just one ticket, its all the
luck of the draw. The results are you win or don't by just one ticket or one of
those 100 tickets bought. This also reminds me if you go gambling, you taking a
chance going to a casino to gamble that you might win some money, or loose
what you took to play. The results are all taking a chance and unpredictable
because you don't know whats going to happen until you get to the casino and
play. For my personal experience, if I go to a casino, and that's maybe, maybe
once a year lol! I only play with the money I intended to play. If I win any
money is won in the process, I keep and don't replay it, so I put it away in my
purse. A reminder I have in mind since I have worked at a casino before, "The
casino always wins" . The point on all this the unpredictablility and probability of
a concept and the outcome is the experiment, like rolling a dice and taking a
chance. Probability is the chances of an event occurring. Experiment, outcomes and
sample space are part of the probability relation in mathematics. Experiment is
when you perform an event with numerous outcomes. An outcome is what results
from the experiment. Sample space shows all probable outcomes that could be
produced from said experiment. Some everyday life events that could relate to us
through experiment, outcome and sample space could be weather predictions. Is
there a chance it could rain or be sunny all day? Could it be warm or cold
weather? Will it be windy or not? All of these are examples of our everyday
life.In my personal life, besides looking at weather, I can relate experiment,
outcome and sample space to my time management. Having a 10-month-old son, a
husband who travels with a racing team while going to school full time and
working full time, can be very stressful and harder to manage for most people.
However, I have experimented over the months to determine how I can effectively
manage my time while making the most of it by finding all the different
outcomes of my stress levels and happiness overall. I had many options to
explore and eventually, settled into a routine that is quite helpful, manageable and
less stressful.
The concept of probability is the number of times an event will occur using the
examples from our week's reading this could be picking an even number out of a
deck of cards or rolling an odd number on a die. The experiment would be
picking the card from the deck of cards and recording your results or rolling the
die and recording if it was an even or odd number. The sample space would be
how many options there would be of the experiment we are doing.In my personal
life I time that I was focused on obtaining a specific outcome would be getting
my son into college. The experiment would be looking at his grades and deciding
if out of state or in state would be better. Also seeing what schools he was
interested in. After going through the options which was about 6 we narrowed
down to what would fit him the best. The finally outcome was we determined an
in state school would be the best and he ended up picking NAU.
Probability put simply, is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a
particular event will occur. When discussing notion, the controlled
environment/conditions are being referenced. This is important to test or establish a
hypothesis, and or is a simple part of the process. The results gleaned from the
experiment itself are the outcomes. Lastly, a same space is simply a collection of
all possible outcomes. Each of the previously mentioned concepts can be useful,
however, to get a reasonable and just outcome of your research, task, etc., all
must be used together. Let’s take a professional poker player for instance. Are
they playing on chance? Absolutely not. They are mathematicians of their craft,
having honed their skills of assessing probability of draws of cards based on what
is visible at any given moment. They play the odds of probability.
In my professional experiences, we desire classes achieving high test scores when
we are looking to gain insight regarding ability to leave the classroom and care
for the client needs at a high level. The experiment is the hypothesis that our
training materials contain enough substance and that our training staff is equipped
appropriately to achieve a high ROI seen through test scores. The ideal outcome
is that we achieve a class average of 95% on final assessments, and the sample
space would increase class over class. We are always focused on class level data,
so as to appropriately assess the instructors, but we are just as concerned with
scoring at a conceptual level too; hence the focus on total data results too.
When discussing the concepts of probability these definitions of this week's
podcast source breaks down what each notion means and how they play a part in
determining outcomes of many different ranges. Experiment: An experiment is a
procedure that results in a single outcome that was part of a collection of many
possible outcomes. Outcome: The formula to calculate probability is the number of
ways you can get your desired outcome divided by the total number of outcomes
possible from your experiment. Probability equals P of the desired outcome equals
the number of ways to get your desired outcome divided by the total number of
possible outcomes. Sample Space: Now the sample space, that is a set or
collection of all of the possible outcomes and we denote that as S.
When thinking about how each of these terms can be applied and used I think
we can apply them to everyday simple tasks such as playing a board game with
our children or placing a bet during times of gambling at a casino, hopefully
trying our hands and luck at a game of craps or poker (lol). Prediction and the
study of probable patterns of outcomes from how we play each activity allows us
to predict if we will win or lose within these games. For instance if I am
playing a game of monopoly , and it's my turn to throw the dice...I can make a
prediction on if the dice will land on a 2 & 6 , or a 1 & 4. That is if I play
with both dice. If I play with one die then my chances of predicting the number
I will land on maybe a bit more easier. In my own personal experience I would
have to say that each time I go to the casinos and play the slots I am using
each notion of probability. I Although I am not rolling dice in these type of
games I am taking a chance of wining and using a set amount of money to not
only increase my chances of wining , but still taking a chance of losing as well.
