Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism 1
Intelligent Strategy:
Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism
Georgetown University
Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism 2
Intelligent Strategy Paper
Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism
In the past, the United States dealt with terrorist or radical organizations that were big in
size and structured. Due to the prior encounters and trends, the United States formulated ways to
track and prevent possible terrorist attacks. However, the enemies started to implement a new
technique known as lone-wolf terrorism in order to harm our ways of lives. The lone-wolf
terrorism is known as terrorist attacks carried out by one person that has no physical association
with terrorist or radical groups. The idea is that this disassociation from a group will prevent
disclosure of attack plans to informants or technical surveillances and therefore provide superior
operational security. (Stratfor, 2008) The United States law enforcement agencies also defined
the “lone-wolf” as individuals carrying out attacks outside a designated command structure. The
term lone wolf has been used interchangeably with “individual resistance”, “self-indoctrinated
terrorist tactics” and “self-sponsored terrorism” as well (Mishra 2018). Due to the isolated and
low-profile nature of lone-wolf terrorism, it brought a new challenge to law enforcement and
intelligence agencies. With the new kind of terrorists and threats, we need to study and formulate
a new plan. Just like a well-known PSA “Knowing is the half the battle”.
Since the advent of social media, extremists across the political spectrum have sought ideological
validation of their toxic opinions through anonymous online sympathizers that function as
communities of belief by transferring personal frustrations onto a transgressive “other.” (Hamm
2018) Also, known terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda or ISIS started to utilize social networks to
spread their propaganda and radical ideologies. According to “The Age of Lone Wolf Terrorism”,
out of 123 cases of lone-wolf terrorism in the United States between 1940 and mid- 2016,
roughly 70 percent of the terrorists were influenced by enablers from the fields of politics,
Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism 3
religion, literature, and media as well as other terrorists. (Hamm 2018) These terrorists are
usually self-indoctrinated or pledged allegiance to the terrorist or radical groups prior to their
attacks. Not only that social media influenced them, but also many lone-wolf terrorists use the
internet as their platform. Robert Bower, the lone wolf attacker of the Tree of Life Congregation
Synagogue in Pittsburgh, shouting hate for Jews and killing 11 worshipers, has used social media
network Gab to post anti-Semitic messages and spouted conspiracy theories opposing the
migrant caravans. There were multiple indicators that he was an apparent danger to the society
prior to his attack. Just like Bower, many lone-wolf terrorists have multiple indicators that are
observable. So, using the “Indicators” technique would be ideal to look for possible lone-wolf
terrorists. However, this is not an easy task since the internet is infinite. Former FBI Director
James Comey described it as “looking for needles in a nationwide haystack.” An attacker’s
online profile may provide clues to an attacker’s motivation or information that could be useful
to law enforcement authorities but generally only after an attack, to narrow down and zero-in on
the perpetrator. (Connor &Flynn 2018) However, looking for indicators utilizing Open Source
Intelligence (OSINT) has seen some success as well. To stop lone-wolf terrorism, Israeli
government stepped up its monitoring of social media. After the Israel started to monitor the
social media, security forces and intelligence agencies started to use algorithms to predict the
likelihood that a given person will carry out a lone-wolf attack and intervene before it happened.
After this implementation, there were only four lone wolf attacks in April of 2018 compared to
71 lone wolf attacks in October of 2015 according to Israel Security Agency. (Eglash & Morris
2018), Even though, it is not perfect, Israel’s approach has been proven to be effective in
decreasing the lone-wolf attacks. Since OSINT isn’t perfect, it would be nice to include Human
intelligent (HUMINT) aspect as well. However, there isn’t enough resources to watch over
Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism 4
millions of possible terrorists. Not only that, if a possible terrorists
notices that they are being watched, they might launch their attack
prematurely, or halt the planning. If they launch an attack
prematurely, there is still going to be possible victims and we do
not want that. Also, if the terrorist drags on, the valuable resources
will be wasted as well. Therefore, OSINT would be a better source
to collect information and monitor for a possible attack.
Another challenge in combating lone wolf terrorism is that
it is difficult to differentiate between the ones who intend to
execute an attack and those
who simply have radical beliefs
and only active behind the
computer. In addition, it is hard to track the planning periods
of the terrorists as well. The Swedish Research Agency came
up with a terrorist planning cycle based on the commonality
with the prior terrorists. This cycle can help identify whether
the lone wolf is actually planning an attack or not. Analysis of
competing hypothesis would be ideal to determine the
possibility. This method is used to evaluate multiple
competing hypotheses for data that is observed, and it is
grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology and
decision analysis. Since the method is thorough, it is suitable for controversial issues when an
analyst wants to achieve traceability and the ability to show what he/she considered when
Terrorist Planning Cycle
Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism 5
arriving at their judgment. (Kaati & Svenson) To conclude the possibility, multiple analysts
would gather and discuss the probability of a terrorist attack based on the gathered information
and the terrorist planning cycle. If a possible target’s activities align with the Terrorist planning
cycle, and the majority of the analyst concludes that the target is likely to commit a lone-wolf
terrorist, then the observers can focus on the target and determine where the target falls in the
cycle. Since every terrorist is different in radicalization and planning process, an observation
period would vary. However, as the terrorist enters into a “Pre attack Surveillance and Planning”
phase or the observers gather any actionable indicator, such as the purchase of explosive
materials and weapon, or radical posts on social networks that threaten an imminent attack, law
enforcement should interfere and prevent a terrorist attack.
Even after utilizing and implementing these techniques and plans, it is impossible to stop
the lone-wolf terrorist attack completely. However, using OSINT and indicator techniques, law
enforcement and intelligence agencies would be able to exploit social media, identify potential
terrorists, and monitor or even disrupt the terrorists. This would lower the number of terrorist
attacks significantly just as it did in Israel. With the continuous surveillance and prevention, the
number of lone-wolf terrorism will decrease and possibly abandon the tactic. In order to do that,
the intelligence agencies and law enforcement need to develop better plans to stop lone-wolf
attacks. At the same time, we need to predict and anticipate the new terrorist tactics so we can
prevent any future attacks. So that we can continue to defend out homeland and the way of our
lives.
Running Head: Strategy to Combat Lone-Wolf Terrorism 7
Reference
Stratfor. (2008, January 30). The 'Lone Wolf' Disconnect. Retrieved from
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/lone-wolf-disconnect.
Mishra, A. (2018, February 8). Declassifying "Lone-Wolf" terrorism: Formulating a
"Counter-Terror" strategy. Retrieved from
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2018/02/07/declassifying-lone-wolf-terrorism-formulating-
counter-terror-strategy/.
Hamm, M. S. (2018, November 5). Social media is a 'force multiplier' for a lone wolf on
the edge. Retrieved from https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/414643-social-
media-is-a-force-multiplier-for-a-lone-wolf-on-the-edge.
Eglash, R., & Morris, L. (2018, July 9). Israel says monitoring social media has cut lone-
wolf attacks. Palestinians are crying foul. Retrieved
from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-says-that-monitoring-
social-media-has-cut-lone-wolf-attacks-palestinians-are-crying-
foul/2018/07/08/bfe9ece2-7491-11e8-bda1-18e53a448a14_story.html.
Connor, J. C., & Flynn, C. R. (n.d.). What To Do About Lone Wolf Terrorism? Examining
Current Trends and Prevention Strategies. Retrieved
from https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/what-to-do-about-lone-wolf-terrorism-
examining-current-trends-and-prevention-strategies/.
Kaati, L., & Svenson, P. (n.d.). Analysis of Competing Hypothesis for Investigating Lone
Wolf Terrorist. Retrieved from
https://www.foi.se/download/18.7fd35d7f166c56ebe0bffbf/1542623690262/Analysis-of-
competing-hypothesis_FOI-S--3800--SE.pdf.
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