GOVT 484 _DB_3.docx assign 19.pdf

Within the intelligence cycle there are five steps: Planning and Direction, Collection,

Processing, Analysis, and Dissemination. It is crucial for all five steps to be properly completed

to develop the highest quality intelligence. Albeit, even if all five steps are completed properly, it

does not necessarily mean the intelligence will be accurate enough to forestall an unseen event. It

must be accepted that intelligence may be wrong due to the impossibility of foreseeing the

must be stated even when the analyst(s) develops high quality intelligence, it does not mean the

consumer is always receptive nor does it mean the intelligence is precise enough to forestall a

specific unseen event. However, incorporating these attributes within the intelligence process

will produce finer work than if the attributes were not properly used or used at all.

There are many things that can go wrong during the five steps of the intelligence cycle;

things can begin to go wrong right from the start. The Planning and Direction phase is the first

step within the cycle. Johnson (2011) states in the beginning, the problem is generally the lack of

guidance from the policymaker about their intelligence requirements. This type of guidance is

the foundation the analyst’s work. He or she must have a clear understanding of the consumer’s

needs to properly conduct the intelligence cycle. This could be the foundational start to an

Once the consumer’s requirements are established, next is the collection phase. One thing that

can go wrong in the collection phase is the inability of using a wide range of sources. This can

result into a lack of flexibility that is needed to meet changing circumstances (McDowell, 2009).

The collection phase is vital to achieving success in the whole intelligence task; thus a well-

executed plan and collection activity must be achieved (McDowell, 2009).

first, therefore the data mechanics of this phase is secondary. “Mere data management will not

solve problems and where even the synergistic result that comes from adding data items together

just will not provide an answer without careful and talented analysis” (McDowell, 2009, p. 213).

This talent and critical thinking will allow for the appropriate analytical methodology to be

chosen. However, one thing that can go wrong is choosing just one methodology, especially in

strategic intelligence. McDowell (2009) states it is unlikely choosing just one single

methodology will produce the answer to any strategic intelligence problem.

Lastly, the Dissemination phase is where the analysis product is handed over to the

consumer in a timely manner. Many things can go wrong in this phase. One crucial element that

can go wrong is the analysis was misinterpreted by the consumer and the intelligence managers

picking, etc. Even though some of the responsibility lies within the policy maker for the

misinterpretations, it still falls on the intelligence manager to clear up these misinterpretations

regardless of the possible backlash received. Their goal is to produce analysis that is not

politicized and clear of biases, and to not fear objecting the policy makers. “Sanctify them in the

truth; your word is truth” (John 17:17, ESV).

doi: 10.1080/08850607.2015.1051410

McDowell, D. (2009). Strategic intelligence: A handbook for practitioners, managers, and

users.

Lanham, MD: The Scarecrow Press.

Thank you for your post Jordan. Within your last paragraph, you mentioned the

legislation process and the connection it has with the intelligence community. As you

mentioned, Lowenthal (2015) discusses the specificity of this by mentioning the Intelligence

Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA), it may be satisfying but will have no effect on

the analysts. Lowenthal also discusses the need for a profound political shift in managing and

(Lowenthal, 2011). Lowenthal also talks about the need for policy makers to be more informed

and educated on what intelligence truly provides. There is a saying "the educated consumer is the

best consumer", unfortunately as much as the intelligence community would love for this to be

true, but it is not always the case. Many presidents and cabinet members have little knowledge or

experience with intelligence when they come into the job, and that chance of gaining knowledge

References:

Jervis, R. (2010). Why intelligence and policymakers clash. Political Science Quarterly,

intelligence. Psychological evidence shows the real decision-making and information processing

abilities are not optimal due to the complexity of information in the world, which overwhelms

the human cognitive abilities and this is how cognitive bias is developed (Kebbell, Muller, and

Martin, 2010). Adding to the complexity of information, is the contextual pressures such as time

constraints (Kebbell, Muller, and Martin, 2010). While the analysis phase can certainly prove as

the phase for things to go wrong, the collection phase is just as important. McDowell (2009)

states while traditionally, more attention is paid to the analysis phase, the collection phase is

fundamental to the success of the entire intelligence task. He states it is imperative for a well-

planned and executed collection plan is crucial to the success of relevant collection, which in

turn provides more solid foundation for the analysis phase.

Reference:

Kebbell, M., Muller, D., & Martin, K. (2010). Understanding and managing bias. In Bammer G.

Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24hbrf.10

McDowell, D. (2009). Strategic intelligence: A handbook for practitioners, managers, and

users.