Understanding and shaping consumer behavior in the next normal
Javier Ramirez
Liberty University
BUSI 520: Strategic Marketing Management
Muriel Wilson
January 5, 2022
Understanding and shaping consumer behavior in the next normal
Months after the novel coronavirus was first detected in the United States, the
COVID-19 crisis continues to upend Americans’ lives and livelihoods. The pandemic has
disrupted nearly every routine in day-to-day life. The extent and duration of mandated
lockdowns and business closures have forced people to give up even some of their most
deeply ingrained habits—whether spending an hour at the gym after dropping the kids off at
school, going to a coffee shop for a midday break, or enjoying Saturday night at the movies.
Such disruptions in daily experiences present a rare moment. In ordinary times, consumers
tend to stick stubbornly to their habits, resulting in very slow adoption (if any) of beneficial
innovations that require behavior change. Now, the COVID-19 crisis has caused consumers
everywhere to change their behaviors—rapidly and in large numbers. In the United States,
for example, 75 percent of consumers have tried a new store, brand, or different way of
shopping during the pandemic. Even though the impetus for that behavior change may be
specific to the pandemic and transient, consumer companies would do well to find ways to
meet consumers where they are today and satisfy their needs in the postcrisis period.
Behavioral science tells us that identifying consumers’ new beliefs, habits, and “peak
moments” is central to driving behavioral change. Five actions can help companies influence
consumer behavior for the longer term:
Reinforce positive new beliefs.
Shape emerging habits with new offerings.
Sustain new habits, using contextual cues.
Align messages to consumer mindsets.
Analyze consumer beliefs and behaviors at a granular level.
According to behavioral science, the set of beliefs
that a consumer holds about the world is a key influencer of
consumer behavior. Beliefs are psychological—so deeply
rooted that they prevent consumers from logically
evaluating alternatives and thus perpetuate existing habits
and routines. Companies that attempt to motivate
behavioral change by ignoring or challenging consumers’
beliefs are fighting an uphill battle.
The COVID-19 crisis, however, has forced many
consumers to change
their behaviors, and their new experiences have caused them to change their beliefs
about a wide range of everyday activities, from grocery shopping to exercising to socializing.
When consumers are surprised and delighted by new experiences, even long-held beliefs
can change, making consumers more willing to repeat the behavior, even when the trigger
(in this case, the COVID-19 pandemic) is no longer present. In other words, this is a unique
moment in time during which companies can reinforce and shape behavioral shifts to
position their products and brands better for the next normal.
When consumers are surprised and delighted by new experiences, even long-held
beliefs can change, making consumers more willing to repeat the behavior.
For example, approximately 15 percent of US consumers tried grocery delivery for
the first time during the COVID-19 crisis. Among those first timers, more than 80 percent say
they were satisfied with the ease and safety of the experience; 70 percent even found it
enjoyable. And 40 percent intend to continue getting their groceries delivered after the
crisis, suggesting that they’ve jettisoned any previously held beliefs about grocery delivery
being unreliable or inconvenient; instead, they’ve been surprised and delighted by the
benefits of delivery
Another example of changing beliefs involves at-home exercise. The US online fitness
market has seen approximately 50 percent growth in its consumer base since February
2020; the market for digital home-exercise machines has grown by 20 percent. It’s likely
that many people who tried those fitness activities for the first time during the pandemic
believed that at-home exercise couldn’t meet their exercise needs. That belief has clearly
changed for many of these consumers: 55 percent who tried online fitness programs and 65
percent who tried digital exercise machines say they will continue to use them, even after
fitness centers and gyms reopen. To reinforce the new belief that online fitness can be
motivating and enjoyable, NordicTrack, in a recent TV ad titled “Face Off,” shows that online
workouts can foster the same friendly competition and connection that people look for
when they go to the gym or attend in-person exercise classes.
An effective way to reinforce a new belief is to focus on peak moments—specific
parts of the consumer decision journey that have disproportionate impact and that
consumers tend to remember most. Peak moments often include first-time experiences
with a product or service, touchpoints at the end of a consumer journey (such as the
checkout process in a store), and other moments of intense consumer reaction.
Some companies have focused on enhancing the consumer’s first-time
experience. Plant-based-meat manufacturer Beyond Meat, for instance, was already
benefiting from delays in meat production in the early days of the COVID-19 crisis: its sales
more than doubled between the first and second quarters of 2020. In collaboration
with local restaurants and catering companies, the company has been delivering free,
professionally prepared food to hospitals and other community centers. By giving away
Beyond Burgers prepared by professional chefs, Beyond Meat is creating positive first
experiences with its product at a time when consumers are more open to trial.
As the consumer journey has changed, so have the peak moments, and it’s crucial for
companies to identify and optimize them. For example, a peak moment in a grocery store
might be the discovery of an exciting new product on the shelf. In the online-grocery
journey, however, a peak moment might instead be on-time delivery or the “unboxing” of
the order (the experience of taking the delivered items out of the packaging). Grocers could
consider including a handwritten thank-you note or some other surprise, such as a free
sample, to reinforce consumers’ positive connections with the experience.
Highly emotional occasions can spark intense consumer reactions and therefore
present an opportunity for companies to create peak moments associated with their
products or brands. For example, when graduations shifted from formal, large-scale
ceremonies to at-home, family celebrations, Krispy Kreme offered each 2020 graduate a
dozen specially decorated doughnuts for free. With that promotion, the company
connected its brand with an emotional event that may not have been a key occasion for
doughnuts prior to the pandemic.
Shape emerging habits with new products
Companies can nudge consumers toward new habits through product innovation.
For instance, the COVID-19 crisis has spurred consumers to become more health
oriented and increase their intake of vitamins and minerals. Unilever reported a sales spike
in beverages that contain zinc and vitamin C, such as Lipton Immune Support tea. The
company is therefore rolling out such products globally. It’s also aligning its innovation
priorities with consumers’ emerging health-and-wellness concerns.
Similarly, packaged-food companies can encourage the habit of cooking at home.
Spice manufacturer McCormick’s sales in China have sustained double-digit increases
compared with 2019, even as the Chinese economy has reopened and people go back to
their workplaces. The same pattern could play out in other countries. Kraft Heinz’s
innovation agenda for its international markets now prioritizes products that make home
cooking pleasurable, fast, and easy—products such as sauces, dressings, and side dishes.
These will be targeted at “light” and “medium” users of Kraft Heinz products.
Sustain new habits, using contextual cues
Habits can form when a consumer begins to associate a certain behavior with a
particular context; eventually, that behavior can become automatic. To help turn behaviors
into habits, companies should identify the contextual cues that drive the behaviors. A
contextual cue can be a particular task, time of day, or object placement. For example, more
consumers are keeping hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes near entryways for easy access
and as a reminder to keep hands and surfaces clean. Product packaging and marketing that
reinforces the put-it-by-the-door behavior can help consumers sustain the habit.
Some companies may need to identify—and create—new contextual cues. Before
the COVID-19 crisis, a contextual cue for chewing-gum consumption was anticipation of a
social interaction—for instance, before going to a club, while commuting to work, and after
smoking. As social occasions have waned during the pandemic, a chewing-gum
manufacturer must look for new contextual cues, focusing largely on solo or small-group
activities, such as gaming and crafting. Gum manufacturers could consider The COVID-19
crisis has changed people’s routines at unprecedented speed—and some of those changes
will outlast the pandemic. Even in states and cities that have reopened, consumers remain
cautious about resuming all of their precrisis activities. We’ve seen differences in consumer
behavior across geographic markets and demographic groups, and those differences will
only widen during the recovery phase, given that the health, economic, and social impact of
COVID-19 isn’t uniform. Companies that develop a nuanced understanding of the changed
beliefs, peak moments, and habits of their target consumer bases—and adjust their product
offerings, customer experiences, and marketing communications accordingly—will be best
positioned to thrive in the next normal.
