Classifying Work Tasks and Costs
The cost estimating process begins by breaking the project down into work phases such as
design, engineering, development, and fabrication, or into work packages from the WBS. The project
team, including members from the involved functional areas and contractors, meets to discuss the
work phases or packages, and to receive specific work assignments. The team tries to identify tasks in
the project that are similar to existing designs and standard practices and can readily be adopted.
Work is classified either as developmental or as an adaptation of existing or off-the-shelf (OTS)
designs, techniques, or procedures. Because developmental work requires effort in design, testing,
and fabrication, cost estimating is more difficult compared to OTS due to the greater uncertainty about
what needs to be done. Overruns for developmental work are common, especially due to inaccurate
labor estimates. In contrast, estimating for OTS items or duplicated work is straightforward because
it is based upon known prices, or records of material and labor costs for similar systems or tasks. It is
thus often beneficial to make use of existing designs and technology as much as possible. Estimated
costs are classified as recurring and nonrecurring.
Recurring costs happen more than once and are associated with tasks periodically repeated,
such as costs for quality assurance and testing. Nonrecurring costs happen once and are associated
with development, fabrication, and testing of one-of-a-kind items, or procurement of special items. In
the pure project form of organization the project manager delegates the responsibility for the
estimating effort, combines the estimated results, and presents the final figures to management. In a
matrix organization, estimating is the joint responsibility of the project and functional managers,
though the project manager coordinates the effort and accumulates the results. The estimating effort
requires close coordination and communication between the estimating groups to avoid redundancies
and omissions. Although this typifies the cost estimating process, the actual method used to estimate
cost figures will depend on the required accuracy of and the information available to make the
estimate. Cost estimates are determined using variants of four basic techniques: expert opinion,
analogy, parametric, and cost engineering.
Contingency Amount
Contingency amounts are added to estimates to offset uncertainty. In general, the less well
defined or more complex the situation, the greater the required amount. Contingency amounts can
be developed for individual activities or work packages, or the project as a whole. Activity contingency
is an amount estimated to account for “ known unknowns ” in an activity or work package, i.e., sources
of cost increases that could or likely will occur; they include scrap and waste, design changes, increases
in the scope, size, or function of the end-item, and delays due to weather. Later, when the project
budget is established, this amount should be included in a special budget, subdivided into work
package accounts and strictly controlled by the project manager. For the project cost estimate, the
project manager sums these activity contingencies and adds them to the total project cost, yielding
the base estimate. To the base estimate the project manager might add yet another amount, a project
contingency . This is to account for “ unknown unknowns ” —external factors that affect project costs
but cannot be pinpointed. Examples include unforeseen fluctuation in exchange rates, shortages in
resources, and changes in the market or competitive environment. The size of the contingency
depends on the perceived risk and likelihood of cost escalation due to unknowns. Computing the
contingency based on the perceived project risk is covered in Chapter 10. Any subsequent usage of
project contingency funds, like that of the activity contingency, is controlled by the project manager.
Adding the project contingency to the base estimate gives the final cost estimate , which is the most
likely cost. Besides the activity and project contingencies, the corporation might also set aside an
additional allowance to cover overruns. This amount, the overrun allowance , is added to the most
likely cost to yield a cost where the probability of exceeding it is less than 10 percent. The overrun
allowance is controlled by a program manager or corporate managers and is ordinarily not available
to the project manager without approval.
Reducing Costs
What happens if competition or insufficient funding forces management to reduce costs?
Managers will want to retain their share of the project and none will want to see budget or staff
reduced. Nonmanagement professionals such as engineers, scientists, or systems analysts, unless
actively involved in the budgeting process, are often unaware of budget constraints and resist cuts.
Here is where communication, negotiation, and diplomacy between project managers and functional
managers and staff are necessary to convince the latter to accept a share of budget reductions. When
this fails the project manager must look for ways to reduce costs (e.g., reduce work scope or labor
requirements or use less costly resources) and convince the team to accept the reductions (dashed
arrows in Figure 8-4 ). If that fails, the final resort is to appeal to top management. 14 To reconcile
differences between estimates, top management sometimes exercises an across-the-board cut on all
estimates. This is poor practice because it fails to account for judgmental errors or excessive costs on
the part of just a few units.
It also unfairly penalizes managers who tried to produce fair estimates and were honest
enough not to pad them. Such indiscriminate, acrossthe-board cuts induce everyone to pad estimates
for their own protection. Suppose you are the project manager and it is clear that management insists
on a budget that is too low to perform the work. There are only two courses of action: either undertake
the project and attempt wholeheartedly to meet the budget, or hand it over to another manager. 15
If you decide on the former, you should document your disagreement and report it to top
management; later, the client might agree to changes that would reduce costs and enable it to be
completed within budget. If the contract is cost-plus, then the risk is low because additional costs will
be reimbursed. If the contract is fixed price and the budget is so underfunded as to likely require
cutting corners or stalling the project, then you should suggest to management that they appoint
another project manager (who, assuming your argument is valid, might then argue the same case).
Not only is this good business practice, it is the only ethical alternative.