Sampling and Prediction

 200 - 300 words

For this week's discussion, respond to one or both of the following methods for predicting elections. Your response should address these questions:

a) What is wrong with the sampling methods used in these studies?

b) Do you think that advertisers, politicians or others today commit the same type of sampling error?

c) Do you think portraying information in this way is ethical?

Method 1: In election years, the media likes to look to history to predict who might win the current election.  Case in point is the race between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole.  Time magazine reported that the "candidate who appeared on screen to the left of his opponent on the first debate has typically won the election." (Time, Oct.21. 1996, p.26)  At that time, there had been 9 televised debates and the winner had been on the left 7 times.  Bob Dole was on the left so the total became 7 to 3.

Method 2: In another example, Newsweek indicated that when the New York Yankees won the World Series during an election year, the Repulican candiate won the White House (Newsweek, Oct. 28, 1996, p.3) To that point, the Yankees had played in the World Series 5 times in presidential election years. The Yankees and the Republicans won in 1952 and 1956 and lost in 1960, 1964 and 1976.