Discussion

Make a Decision 

Decision Making Problem You must read the following Decision Making items in Week Eleven in order to understand the process for solving these problems.

Decision - Heuristics

Risk  - Prospect Theory

Rational Decision Making - PP

Fairness - PP

Offer your solution to the following problems and then provide one example from your work experience where one of these processes was used and describe how it was used - or, provide an example from your work where one of these processes should have been used and was not.
This Discussion is an exercise in critical thinking. You need to solve the problems. You do not need to interact with your classmates in this discussion but you are certainly welcome to do so if you would like.

The above listed lectures and PPs will really help you address the questions in this discussion. In order to answer the first question you need to read Dr. Martin Luther King Jr's "Letter From a Birmingham Jail". The link is in Week 11. 

In the "Letter from a Birmingham Jail" Dr Martin Luther King Jr. eloquently describes his reasons for supporting the actions of the individuals fighting for civil rights. Using Bazerman's Prospect theory, explain what action King is advocating -  that is, is he being risk seeking or risk averse, and explain why he is doing this?  Hint: his reference point is equality. Make sure that whatever you decide, in order to explain your choice of risk seeking or risk averse, use the language of Prospect Theory to support your decision.

Pretend that for the last two years the snowfall in the Washington DC area has been heavy. Many years there is barely any snow during the winter, but these last two years have seen major snow accumulation.  Your store has a fairly set average for snow blower sales. However for the last two years there has been an extreme amount of snowfall in your area and the snow blower sales have skyrocketed. You are the purchasing agent for your store. You now have to put in the order to the supplier for snow blowers for this coming winter. You do not want to be stuck with a lot of extra snow blowers at the end of the season. If this happens you lose money. But you do want to have enough snow blowers on hand to fill the need. Based upon the ten year history of snow fall in your area do you order the number of snow blowers that you have sold for the last two years or not?  Explain how the Bazerman heuristic "Regression to the Mean" would be the best heuristic to use to help you decide the number of snow blowers to stock.  How many snow blowers would you order and why?  Make sure you fully explain your decision. 

Remember to include an example of one of these two decision making techniques, presented here, from your work.