DISCUSSION BOARD FORUM THREE 1
Forecasting
School of Nursing, Liberty University
Author Note
Crystal Anthony
I have no known conflict of interest to disclose.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Crystal Anthony
Email: Cranthony1@liberty.edu
Forecasting
DISCUSSION BOARD FORUM THREE 2
Forecasting is a technique that uses historical data to make predictions for the next year.
The forecasting process includes: 1) collection of historical data, 2)graphing the data, 3)
analyzing data to show patterns or similarities, and 4) creating and using formulas to project the
variable being forecast into the future (Jones et al., 2019). As a result of today’s pandemic, my
place of work is making financial decisions that must be forecasted. The budget will be
predicted based on historical data that will prepare for elevation of Covid-19 patients, with the
focus of readiness of healthcare services. The historical data will include the number of Covid-
19 outbreaks that were within the community, how many were admitted to hospital, the number
of ventilated patients, required PPE, and the number of staff needed to accommodate these
patients (Wirawan & Januraga, 2020). Data was obtained from medical health records that
showed age, sex, race, diagnosis coeds, hospital admission and discharge date, and if applicable
date of intensive care unit admission and date of death. Another forecasting method would be to
collect data the cost per measuring tools, hours per patient day or full-time equivalents.
Seasonality is a characteristic of time series when predictions can be made due to
reoccurrence every calendar year. Our text gives an example of seasonal diseases during the
winter month, and in this case Covid-19 numbers are expected to increase during this winter
season. Trend does not repeat itself and is an upward or downward trend that changes over time.
Some historical patterns can demonstrate both trend and seasonality, but the trend will be more
noticeable. When both exist, the organization should forecast seasonal patterns for accuracy.
Accurate forecasting of Covid-19 trends is essential to manage and instruct the demand to health
systems. This prediction will allow the organization to play an important role in allocating
limited health resources rationally and which health interventions should be utilized to alleviate
the outbreak (Vergori, 2017).
DISCUSSION BOARD FORUM THREE 3
When forecasting hospital essentials during this pandemic, budget numbers will need to
increase. The budget will increase to continue to provide quality care to these patients and safety
for healthcare professionals. Budget increase can include PPE for all staff members, adequate
staffing that may require overtime, ventilation machines and other respiratory equipment, and
other supplies for daily living. As of now, strategic planning for this organization is to designate
a unit for Covid-19 positive patients and to designate another inpatient units in case of overflow.
Another plan is to prepare nurses in administration to provide care to patients in case of a nurse
shortage. It is important for all organizations, healthcare and non-healthcare, to forecast
predictions for this pandemic to prepare for what could potentially happen, and every staff
member should understand that flexibility is key at this time and should do whatever possible to
keep themselves and other safe. Jeremiah 29:11 states, “For I know the plans I have for you,
declares the Lord, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope” (ESV). As
devastating as this pandemic is, as Christian healthcare professionals, we are to keep faith that
the Lord will guide us and get us through this.
References
Bible. Jeremiah 29:11. English Standard Version
Jones, C. B., Kovner, C. T., Finkler, S. A., & Mose, J. (2019). Financial management for
nurse managers and executives (5th ed.). St. Louis, MO: Elsevier
Vergori, A. S. (2017). Patterns of seasonality and tourism demand forecasting. Tourism
Economics, 23(5), 1011–1027. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616656418
