Discussion 5
Vulnerability Assessment and Impact Analysis
A. Community Setting
Regardless of where you live, you are part of a community. Some communities
are large and urban, others are small and rural, and there is everything in between. Busy,
bustling, opulent, quiet, sleepy, industrial, agricultural, poor, run-down—there are many
words that can be used to describe the communities we live in and serve as emergency
managers. Consider the many pieces within each community and how they are
interrelated. Not only are they interrelated, they also depend very much on each other for
the normalcy that has been achieved in the evolution of that community. Natural and
technological disasters disturb community normalcy. They may obliterate an entire
community or destroy a very specific slice.
Absolutely, you've captured the essence of vulnerability assessment and impact
analysis in emergency management perfectly. These processes are essential for
understanding the full extent of a community's vulnerability to natural and technological
hazards and assessing the potential impacts of these hazards under varying magnitudes.
By examining the community in its entirety and considering the interplay of various
factors, emergency management agencies can develop a comprehensive understanding of
the risks and vulnerabilities they face.
Vulnerability assessment involves identifying the underlying factors that make a
community susceptible to the effects of hazards. This includes analyzing socio-economic
conditions, demographic characteristics, land use patterns, infrastructure vulnerabilities,
environmental factors, and other relevant considerations. By assessing these factors,
agencies can identify populations, assets, and critical infrastructure that are most at risk
and prioritize mitigation efforts accordingly.
Impact analysis, on the other hand, focuses on evaluating the potential
consequences of hazards on the community. This involves considering the range of
possible outcomes that could result from a hazard event, including property damage, loss
of life, economic disruption, environmental degradation, and social upheaval. Impact
analysis may utilize various tools and methodologies, such as risk modeling, scenario
analysis, and consequence modeling, to quantify and assess the magnitude of potential
impacts under different scenarios.
Together, vulnerability assessment and impact analysis provide a holistic view of
a community's risk profile and help guide decision-making in emergency management
planning. By understanding the interactions between hazards, vulnerabilities, and
potential impacts, agencies can develop targeted mitigation strategies, emergency
response plans, and recovery measures to reduce risk and enhance resilience.
Additionally, vulnerability assessment and impact analysis inform community outreach
and public education efforts, helping to raise awareness and promote proactive
preparedness among residents and stakeholders.
In essence, vulnerability assessment and impact analysis are essential components
of effective emergency management planning, enabling agencies to identify, prioritize,
and address the risks and vulnerabilities facing their communities. By systematically
examining vulnerabilities and assessing potential impacts, agencies can enhance their
ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters and emergencies, ultimately
safeguarding lives, property, and livelihoods within their jurisdiction.
Hazard analysis involves identifying and investigating both the hazard location
and its geographical extent. It further examines the identified hazard’s strength (scale,
magnitude, intensity) and probability of occurrence. The many methods and instruments
available for hazard analysis operate on the basis of available scientific data.
Vulnerability assessment is the next step in the process, where assets at risk are pitted
against the hazards, the probability that they will occur, and the magnitude that one might
expect. This will then lead to impact analysis, where we can consider the consequences of
the hazards should they affect us.
Certainly, identifying and prioritizing hazards based on their likelihood and
potential impact is a fundamental aspect of effective hazard mitigation planning. As
noted by Cannon (1994), this approach allows emergency management agencies to
allocate limited resources strategically and focus their efforts on addressing the most
significant threats to the community's safety and well-being. Hazard Assessment
conducting a comprehensive assessment of the various hazards that may pose a risk to the
community. Hazards can include natural events such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes,
and wildfires, as well as human-induced events such as chemical spills, infrastructure
failures, and terrorist attacks. Absolutely, you've outlined a comprehensive approach to
hazard identification that is essential for effective emergency management planning.
Analyzing historical data, conducting risk assessments, and consulting with subject
matter experts are all critical components of the process by which emergency
management agencies identify hazards that are most likely to occur within their
jurisdiction.
Historical data analysis involves examining past occurrences of hazards, such as
natural disasters, technological accidents, or public health emergencies, within the
jurisdiction. By studying the frequency, severity, and impact of these events, agencies can
gain valuable insights into the types of hazards that pose the greatest risk to the
community. This historical perspective provides a foundation for understanding the
likelihood of future events and helps prioritize mitigation efforts accordingly. Risk
assessments build upon historical data analysis by systematically evaluating the potential
consequences of identified hazards on the community. This involves assessing factors
such as the probability of occurrence, the magnitude of potential impacts, and the
vulnerability of exposed assets and populations. Risk assessments may utilize various
methodologies, such as quantitative modeling, scenario analysis, or expert judgment, to
quantify and prioritize risks based on their likelihood and potential severity.
Consulting with subject matter experts, including meteorologists, geologists,
engineers, public health officials, and other specialists, is essential for gaining a
comprehensive understanding of hazard risks and vulnerabilities. These experts bring
valuable expertise and insights to the hazard identification process, helping emergency
management agencies assess complex hazards and develop informed mitigation
strategies. By leveraging the knowledge and experience of subject matter experts,
agencies can ensure that hazard identification efforts are based on the best available
science and technical expertise. Overall, by combining historical data analysis, risk
assessments, and expert consultation, emergency management agencies can
systematically identify hazards that are most likely to occur within their jurisdiction. This
proactive approach enables agencies to prioritize resources, plan mitigation efforts, and
implement measures to reduce the risk and impact of disasters and emergencies,
ultimately enhancing the community's resilience and preparedness.
Risk Analysis, once hazards have been identified, the next step is to assess the
potential impact of each hazard on the community. This involves evaluating factors such
as the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of potential consequences, and the
vulnerability of exposed assets and populations. By quantifying and prioritizing risks
based on these criteria, agencies can focus their mitigation efforts on addressing the most
significant threats to public safety and infrastructure.
Prioritization, based on the results of the risk analysis, emergency management
agencies can develop a prioritized list of hazards that guides their mitigation planning
efforts. Hazards with the highest likelihood and potential impact are typically given the
highest priority for mitigation actions, as addressing these risks can yield the greatest
return on investment in terms of reducing overall vulnerability and enhancing community
resilience.
By working off a prioritization list derived from hazard assessment and risk
analysis, emergency management agencies can ensure that mitigation efforts are targeted,
strategic, and aligned with community needs and priorities. This proactive approach
enables agencies to make informed decisions about resource allocation, policy
development, and infrastructure investments, ultimately enhancing the community's
ability to withstand and recover from disasters and emergencies.
B. Hazard Analysis
Once hazards are identified, the next step is to develop hazard event profiles,
which help determine the likelihood, magnitude, and potential impact of hazards in the
community. Some hazards affect the area more than others, and it is important to know
the geographic extent of each hazard. Obtaining or creating a base map is essential to
show areas that are subject to various hazards. A base map shows the basic topography,
physical elements and infrastructure, political boundaries such as city limits, streets and
roads, rivers, etc.
Absolutely, the base map plays a crucial role in conducting vulnerability
assessments within emergency management. The base map serves as the foundational
framework upon which vulnerability data is overlaid and analyzed, providing essential
spatial context and geographic information for understanding the distribution of hazards,
vulnerabilities, and assets within a community. The base map provides spatial context by
depicting the geographic features and boundaries of the area being assessed. This
includes natural features such as rivers, coastlines, and terrain, as well as human-made
features such as roads, buildings, and infrastructure. Understanding the spatial context is
essential for identifying areas of vulnerability and assessing the potential impact of
hazards on different parts of the community. In summary, the base map is a critical
component of vulnerability assessment in emergency management, providing spatial
context, enabling data integration, facilitating risk mapping, and supporting
communication and visualization efforts. By leveraging the base map as a foundational
framework, emergency management agencies can conduct more comprehensive and
effective vulnerability assessments, leading to more informed decision-making and
proactive risk reduction measures within communities.
In terms of hazard identification, FEMA (2001b) suggested the following
techniques that should provide a good starting point to identify hazards. Research
newspapers and other historical records, which often contain dates, magnitudes of the
events, damages, and other information about previous natural disasters that occurred in
the area. Review existing plans and reports such as local comprehensive plans, land use
plans, capital improvement plans, building codes, and flood ordinances, which may
indicate the presence of local hazards. Talk to local experts in your community, such as
floodplain managers, representatives of the department of public works, planning,
engineering, and local emergency management agencies (EMAs), who may have been
involved with past natural hazard events. Collect information on hazards in the area from
relevant websites.
The potential impact of a hazard can be determined by its location, how large an
area within the community is affected, magnitude or maximum probable extent, and the
probability or likelihood of future events. FEMA (2013) uses the following classifications
for location, magnitude, and probability of hazards and then rank each hazard based on
overall significance. Location (Geographic area affected) can be classified as negligible
(less than 10% of planning area affected), limited (10 to 25% of planning area affected),
significant (25 to 75% of planning area affected), or extensive (75 to 100% of planning
area affected).
Indeed, categorizing the maximum probable extent of hazards into classifications
such as weak, moderate, severe, or extreme is crucial for emergency management
planning. This classification system helps agencies assess the potential severity and
impact of hazards based on various factors, including historical data, probability, speed of
onset, duration, and potential damage. Historical data on past hazard events provide
valuable insights into the likelihood of similar events occurring in the future. By
analyzing historical trends and patterns, agencies can estimate the probability of different
hazard scenarios. Hazards with a high frequency of occurrence or a high probability of
occurrence may be classified as severe or extreme.
The speed at which a hazard event unfolds can significantly influence its
maximum probable extent. Hazards that develop rapidly or without warning, such as
tornadoes or tsunamis, may be classified as severe or extreme due to their sudden and
intense impacts. The duration of a hazard event, or how long it lasts, is another important
factor in determining its maximum probable extent. Hazards that persist over an extended
period, such as prolonged droughts or slow-moving hurricanes, may cause prolonged
impacts and may be classified as severe or extreme. The potential damage caused by a
hazard event is a critical consideration in classification. Hazards with the potential to
cause significant damage to infrastructure, property, and human life may be classified as
severe or extreme. This includes hazards such as earthquakes, floods, wildfires, and
hurricanes.
By classifying hazards into categories based on their maximum probable extent,
emergency management agencies can prioritize their planning and preparedness efforts
effectively. This classification system enables agencies to anticipate the potential severity
of hazard events, allocate resources appropriately, and develop targeted mitigation,
response, and recovery strategies to minimize the impact on communities and enhance
resilience.
Indeed, historical data on previous hazard events within each category serves as a
valuable foundation for estimating the likelihood or probability of future events. By
analyzing past occurrences, emergency management agencies can gain insights into the
frequency and recurrence patterns of different types of hazards, allowing them to classify
future events based on their probability of occurrence.
The classification of hazards into categories such as highly likely, likely,
occasional, and unlikely helps emergency management agencies prioritize their
mitigation efforts and allocate resources effectively. Hazards that are classified as highly
likely or likely may occur with greater frequency or have a higher probability of
occurrence, requiring more immediate attention and robust mitigation measures. On the
other hand, hazards that are classified as occasional or unlikely may occur less frequently
or have a lower probability of occurrence, allowing agencies to focus their efforts on
addressing higher-priority risks.
The classification of hazards based on their probability of occurrence also informs
risk assessment and planning processes, enabling agencies to develop tailored strategies
and response plans for different scenarios. For example, hazards that are classified as
highly likely or likely may require more extensive preparedness measures, such as public
education campaigns, infrastructure upgrades, and emergency response training, to
mitigate their potential impacts. Conversely, hazards that are classified as occasional or
unlikely may warrant less intensive preparedness efforts, allowing agencies to prioritize
resources and focus on addressing higher-priority risks.
Overall, by classifying hazards based on their likelihood or probability of
occurrence, emergency management agencies can better prioritize their mitigation efforts,
allocate resources effectively, and develop targeted strategies to reduce the risk and
impact of future events. This proactive approach to hazard assessment and classification
helps build resilience and preparedness within communities, ultimately enhancing their
ability to withstand and recover from disasters and emergencies.
C. Vulnerability Assessment for Natural Hazards
Vulnerability assessment involves identifying structures and areas of a
community that are vulnerable to hazards using current knowledge or some degree of
existing building stock (FEMA, n.d.a). It helps answer the question: “What assets in the
community will be affected by the hazard event?” Assets are the features of a community
that have value, such as buildings, facilities, infrastructure, historic and cultural
landmarks, and other local resources (Schwab et al., 2007). The first task for compiling
an inventory list is to determine the number and value of the buildings and the total
estimated population within the hazard areas.
Indeed, even a condensed inventory, such as the one outlined here, can serve as a
valuable tool for providing decision-makers with an initial overview of the potential
extent of damage from a hazard event. This simplified inventory offers a broad picture of
the likely impacts, helping decision-makers understand the urgency and importance of
further study to assess potential losses in more detail. As noted by FEMA (2001b), this
approach can be instrumental in gaining support for additional research and analysis to
develop comprehensive risk assessments and mitigation strategies.
The procedures and techniques for creating such an inventory are outlined in the
subsequent sections, offering guidance on how to systematically assess and categorize
hazards, vulnerabilities, and assets within a community. This includes identifying and
prioritizing key hazards, evaluating vulnerabilities and exposure, and quantifying
potential losses based on historical data, predictive modeling, and expert judgment. By
following these prescribed methods, emergency management agencies can generate
meaningful insights into the potential impacts of hazard events and lay the groundwork
for more in-depth studies and planning efforts.
Creating a truncated inventory involves synthesizing available information and
data sources to provide decision-makers with a concise yet informative overview of the
risks and vulnerabilities facing their jurisdiction. This may include summarizing hazard
maps, demographic data, infrastructure inventories, and historical records to highlight
key findings and trends. By presenting this information in a clear and accessible format,
decision-makers can better understand the potential risks and make informed decisions
about allocating resources and prioritizing mitigation efforts.
Overall, while a truncated inventory may not capture all nuances and complexities
of hazard risk, it serves as a valuable starting point for initiating discussions and
garnering support for further study and analysis. By leveraging available data and
expertise to create this initial overview, emergency management agencies can lay the
foundation for more comprehensive risk assessments and develop targeted strategies to
enhance community resilience and preparedness.
Information about the total number of buildings in your community can be
obtained from the local tax assessment report, aerial photographs, or the local planning
department. This information can be grouped by occupancy class, such as residential,
commercial, and industrial. HAZUS, loss estimation software developed by FEMA, is a
great tool to use to collect this information. Once you gather this data, the next thing to
do is to establish the total approximate replacement value of the buildings located inside
the hazard area. Again, this information can be obtained from HAZUS or from the tax
assessment values of individual buildings. The population data can be found or estimated
from census data, HAZUS, or local resources.
Using a geographic information system (GIS), maps of hazard areas and locations
of community assets can be overlaid on top of the base map to determine the number and
value of the buildings and the populations that are vulnerable to the hazard events (refer
to Figure 7.3). This can also be done using HAZUS. To determine the proportion of
buildings or assets located in hazard areas, you can divide the number or value in your
hazard area by the total number or value in your jurisdiction. For instance, if your
community has 20 residential buildings, and 10 of those are located in the 100-year
floodplain, then 50% of your residential buildings are located in the flood hazard area of
the community.
The location of expected growth in the community can be determined by
reviewing your local comprehensive plan or by talking with your local community
officials where the future growth is expected to occur. Note if these areas lie within the
hazard areas of your community. If you decide to develop a more detailed inventory, you
can collect data on other types of assets located in hazard areas and the characteristics of
these assets. This will help determine the losses to these assets from different hazards.
Types of assets include critical facilities that are important to your community;
vulnerable populations, such as non-English speaking people or elderly people; economic
elements, such as major employers and financial centers in your area; areas with special
needs, such as highdensity residential or commercial development; historic, cultural, and
natural resource areas; and other important facilities such as government buildings of a
particular size, type, and quality.
When assessing potential losses from hazards, it's crucial to consider the value of
the contents within structures. This encompasses a wide range of items, including
furniture, equipment, inventory, personal belongings, and specialized assets. For
businesses, the loss of inventory or machinery can have significant financial implications,
impacting operations and profitability. Similarly, for households, damage to personal
belongings can lead to emotional distress and financial strain. By accurately estimating
the value of contents, emergency management agencies can better understand the full
extent of potential losses and tailor response efforts accordingly.
The function served by structures plays a pivotal role in determining their
importance and impact on communities. Different buildings serve diverse purposes, such
as residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, or critical infrastructure. For example,
hospitals, fire stations, and communication centers are indispensable during emergencies,
providing essential services and support to affected populations. Similarly, schools and
community centers serve as hubs for education, shelter, and coordination during disaster
response efforts. Understanding the function and value of structures enables emergency
management agencies to prioritize resources and allocate assistance where it is most
needed, ensuring the continuity of critical services and minimizing disruptions to
community functions.
Hazards such as floods, wildfires, or earthquakes can result in the displacement of
individuals and communities from their homes or places of business. Displacement costs
encompass a wide range of expenses, including temporary housing, relocation assistance,
loss of income or productivity, and social support services. Displaced individuals may
require emergency shelter, food, medical care, and psychosocial support to meet their
basic needs and cope with the upheaval caused by the disaster. By estimating
displacement costs, emergency management agencies can anticipate the broader social
and economic impacts of hazard events and develop proactive measures to support
affected populations and facilitate recovery.
The occupancy or capacity of structures is another critical consideration in
assessing potential losses from hazards. High-density areas, such as residential
neighborhoods, commercial districts, or industrial zones, may face greater risks and
vulnerabilities during hazard events due to the concentration of people, assets, and
infrastructure. Additionally, buildings with high occupancy rates, such as apartment
complexes, schools, or shopping malls, may pose heightened safety concerns and
evacuation challenges in emergency situations. Understanding occupancy patterns and
capacity limits enables emergency management agencies to implement targeted
preparedness measures, evacuation plans, and sheltering strategies to protect lives,
mitigate risks, and enhance community resilience. By considering these factors in detail,
emergency management agencies can develop more robust risk assessments, response plans,
and mitigation strategies to effectively mitigate the impact of hazards on communities and
promote long-term resilience and recovery.
D. Impact Analysis
Impact analysis is done by estimating losses in terms of the expected losses from
hazard events to people, buildings, and other important assets that are compiled during
inventory assets. Comprehensive loss estimation should assess the level of damage,
including to the contents and functions of the buildings or assets, in addition to the risk to
the structure itself (FEMA, 2001b). For instance, suppose that a particular building could
suffer damage from a 100-year flood event at a level equal to 50% of its total value. The
loss estimation should calculate the potential loss by multiplying the value of structure,
contents, or use by the percentage of damage expected from the hazard event. Loss
estimation from floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes for any region in the United States
can be done using HAZUS software.
The procedures and techniques outlined by FEMA (2001b) for conducting loss
estimation provide a systematic approach to assessing the potential economic, social, and
environmental impacts of hazard events. These methods are designed to help emergency
management agencies quantify and analyze the various components of losses, including
structural damage, infrastructure disruption, economic losses, and social impacts. By
following these prescribed procedures, agencies can develop comprehensive loss
estimates that inform decision-making and guide resource allocation efforts effectively.
The subsequent sections describe in detail the procedures and techniques used by FEMA
for conducting loss estimation. This includes guidance on data collection, analysis
methodologies, modeling techniques, and reporting standards. By providing step-by-step
instructions and best practices, FEMA aims to standardize the process of loss estimation
and ensure consistency and accuracy in assessments conducted by emergency
management agencies nationwide.
Gathering relevant data on hazards, vulnerabilities, exposure, and assets is the
first step in conducting loss estimation. This may involve collecting historical data,
conducting field surveys, utilizing remote sensing technologies, and accessing databases
and repositories maintained by government agencies, research institutions, and private
organizations. FEMA provides guidance on various analysis methodologies and modeling
techniques used to estimate losses. This may include statistical analysis, geographic
information systems (GIS) modeling, engineering assessments, and economic modeling.
These methods enable agencies to quantify the potential impacts of hazard events on
physical infrastructure, economic sectors, and human populations. FEMA's loss
estimation procedures may involve the use of modeling tools and software applications to
simulate hazard scenarios and predict potential outcomes. This may include flood
inundation modeling, earthquake shaking intensity modeling, wind hazard modeling, and
other predictive modeling techniques. By simulating hazard events under different
scenarios, agencies can assess the range of potential impacts and develop response
strategies accordingly. FEMA establishes reporting standards and guidelines for
documenting loss estimation results. This may include formatting requirements, data
presentation guidelines, and quality assurance protocols. Standardized reporting ensures
consistency and transparency in the communication of loss estimation findings to
decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public.
A loss estimate assesses the level of damage from each type of hazard event to
each individual asset in the inventory of a community. Structural loss can be determined
by multiplying the structure replacement value identified in the previous equation by the
expected percent damage from a hazard event. Information about the estimated percent
damage can be obtained from the loss estimation tables developed by FEMA for HAZUS
or benefit-cost analysis (Figure 7.4), or from other publications. For instance, if the city
hall’s structure replacement value equals $100,000 and the expected damage from a 100-
year flood is 40% of the structure, then the estimated structural loss for the city hall from
a flood is $40,000.
If loss estimation tables are not available for a particular hazard, you can use the
full value of the assets that are in the hazard area or assume the percentage based on the
past occurrences of such hazard events in the planning area (FEMA, 2001b). Similarly,
content loss can be estimated by multiplying the replacement value of the contents by the
expected percent damage for a particular hazard event. For example, if the city hall’s
content replacement value equals $200,000 and the expected damage from a 100-year
flood is 10% of the contents, then the estimated content loss from a flood would be
$20,000.
Also, you may need to calculate functional downtime of some assets (e.g.,
businesses or services), as those might not be operational due to a hazard event. For
instance, if a convenience store has daily sales of $2500 and is forced to shut down for
two weeks due to a hazard event, their function loss would be $35,000 ($2500 3 14 days).
If it is a public facility, such as the city hall, with an annual budget of $600,000 and an
average daily budget of $1644 ($600,000/365), then the cost for the loss of use of this
building for two weeks would be $23,016.
To determine which hazard event could have the largest economic losses in your
community, calculate the total loss for all assets in the hazard area from each hazard
event. For instance, if there are three buildings located in the 100-year floodplain of your
community with estimated total flood losses of $10,000, $5000, and $2500, the total
estimated loss from floods would be $17,500. Next, you can find out which hazard event
would likely affect the greatest proportion of your community assets by dividing the total
hazard loss by the total value of the assets that you determined during inventory. For
instance, if the total estimated flood loss is $17,500 and the value of three buildings you
assessed is $100,000, then the flood losses would be approximately 17% of the value of
the assets. Creating a composite loss map is a crucial step in synthesizing the findings of
hazard assessments and loss estimation efforts into a comprehensive visual
representation. This map serves as a valuable tool for identifying high-risk areas,
prioritizing mitigation efforts, and informing land use planning and decision-making
processes. By integrating data on multiple hazards and their potential impacts, emergency
management agencies can develop a nuanced understanding of risk patterns and
vulnerabilities within their jurisdiction.
The composite loss map combines information from hazard maps, vulnerability
assessments, and loss estimation studies to identify areas with varying levels of risk and
loss potential. High-loss potential areas are typically characterized by a convergence of
multiple hazards, significant exposure to vulnerable populations or assets, and a high
likelihood of severe impacts in the event of a hazard event. These areas may include
floodplains, earthquake fault zones, coastal areas prone to storm surge, and urban centers
with high population density and critical infrastructure. On the other hand, moderate or
low-loss potential areas are those with fewer hazards or lower exposure to risk factors.
These areas may be situated away from major hazard zones, have robust infrastructure
and building codes, or benefit from natural features that mitigate hazard impacts, such as
elevation or vegetation cover. While these areas may still face some level of risk, their
overall loss potential is considered lower compared to high-risk areas.
Creating a composite loss map involves overlaying hazard maps, vulnerability
assessments, and loss estimation results onto a geographic base map. Geographic
information systems (GIS) software is commonly used for this purpose, allowing
agencies to visualize and analyze spatial data layers and generate composite maps that
highlight areas of varying risk levels. By visually representing the distribution of risk and
loss potential within a community, the composite loss map facilitates informed decision-
making, resource allocation, and community engagement efforts aimed at enhancing
resilience and reducing vulnerability to hazard events.
Overall, the composite loss map serves as a powerful tool for emergency
management agencies to prioritize mitigation actions, allocate resources effectively, and
implement land use policies that promote sustainable development and resilience in the
face of natural and technological hazards. By identifying high-risk areas and
implementing targeted interventions, agencies can mitigate the impacts of hazard events
and safeguard the well-being of communities and their assets.
A hazard mitigation plan also requires including information about repetitive loss
structures and Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL) structures inrisk assessment and how
repetitive loss structures will be addressed in the mitigation strategy portion of the plan.
For instance, repetitive loss properties can be identified during inventory for participation
in an acquisition and demolition program. While it is not required, the Disaster
Mitigation Act (DMA) 2000 regulations suggest that local plans discuss vulnerability in
terms of a general description of land uses and development trends within the
community.
E. Technological Hazard Assessment
Technological hazard assessment or hazard vulnerability analysis (HVA) for
technological hazards is accomplished in much the same way as one would perform an
HVA for natural hazards. As with natural hazards, the variables include the probability of
occurrence, the magnitude, and the potential impact on people, property, operations, the
environment, and perhaps the agency or organization. Probabilities for many of the
natural hazards are available from a number of government sources. Data for manmade
hazards can be obtained from local industry (for fixed-site hazards), pipeline operators,
railroads, or truck carriers (Waugh & Tierney, 2007) to name just a few possible sources.
One significant difference between natural hazards and technological hazards is that we
look internally to community assets, transportation nodes, industry, public and private
agencies, and companies to locate the sources of those hazards, the threats they pose, and
subsequent risk. In essence, the threat (risk) is within the community. Where does it
exist? How potentially dangerous is it? What accidents have occurred previously and
where? What are potential targets for an intentional incident, and how likely is an act of
terrorism? These are some of the questions that one could use to begin the process of
technological hazard mapping.
To begin to answer the questions posed here, the process is heavily reliant on the
collection of data from the community. Collection of technological hazard data from
multiple sources can be used to generate multilayered hazard maps, which can be very
useful in mitigation and preparedness planning. Hazard mapping is the process of
identifying and displaying the spatial variation of hazard events or physical conditions.
Important variables involved in mapping hazards and interpreting hazard maps include
the size (scale) of the area to be mapped, the availability and completeness of data, the
cost of collecting and mapping data.
When you conduct an HVA, you identify, using current knowledge or some
degree of existing building stock, those structures and areas that are vulnerable to
hazards. In addition, a community growth plan or flat map superimposed on the hazard
map will help you identify areas vulnerable to natural hazards. Vulnerability
identification determines the facilities at risk and to what degree they might be affected,
as well as how they might affect other surrounding structures (FEMA, n.d.b). Assessing
the technological hazard risk for an entire community with its many structures, improved
areas, and facets is a daunting task. Technological hazards are all around us, and many of
them move throughout the community (e.g., 90 ton rail tanker car filled with chlorine).
One should examine the hazards present and then consider the probability, risk, and
subsequent impact of each one.
Taking a focused approach by examining critical infrastructure and key assets
within a community is essential for assessing vulnerability to technological hazards.
Critical infrastructure encompasses the essential facilities, systems, and networks that
support societal functions and enable economic activity. Key assets refer to specific
structures, facilities, or resources that are deemed vital for the functioning of the
community or have significant economic, social, or cultural value.
By identifying and prioritizing critical infrastructure and key assets, emergency
management agencies can better understand the potential impacts of technological
hazards and develop targeted mitigation strategies to protect these vital resources. This
proactive approach helps safeguard essential services, minimize disruption to economic
activity, and enhance the overall resilience of the community.
Highways, bridges, railways, airports, and seaports are critical components of the
transportation infrastructure. Disruption to these systems due to hazards such as chemical
spills, train derailments, or cyberattacks can impede the movement of goods and people,
disrupt supply chains, and hinder emergency response efforts. Power plants, substations,
transmission lines, and natural gas pipelines are essential for providing electricity and
fuel to homes, businesses, and industries. Hazards such as cyberattacks, physical attacks,
natural disasters, or technological failures can lead to widespread power outages,
disrupting daily life and economic activity. Water treatment plants, reservoirs, pumping
stations, and sewer systems are critical for providing clean drinking water and managing
wastewater. Contamination events, infrastructure failures, or cyber incidents can
compromise the safety and reliability of water supplies, posing health risks and disrupting
essential services. Telecommunications infrastructure, including cell towers, fiber optic
cables, and satellite systems, plays a vital role in facilitating communication and
information exchange. Disruptions to communications networks due to cyberattacks,
physical damage, or natural disasters can hamper emergency response efforts and hinder
coordination among stakeholders.
Hospitals, clinics, and medical supply warehouses are essential for providing
healthcare services and responding to emergencies. Hazards such as pandemics,
cyberattacks, or infrastructure failures can strain healthcare systems, overwhelm medical
facilities, and compromise patient care. Government buildings, emergency operations
centers, and public safety facilities serve as hubs for governance, coordination, and
response activities. Disruption to these facilities due to hazards such as terrorism,
cyberattacks, or physical damage can impair the ability of government agencies to
provide essential services and maintain public safety. Banks, stock exchanges, and
financial data centers are critical for facilitating economic transactions and maintaining
financial stability. Hazards such as cyberattacks, data breaches, or physical security
threats can disrupt financial markets, undermine consumer confidence, and have far-
reaching economic consequences.
When it comes to vulnerability assessment, the emergency manager should
consider the entire community. But, as previously stated, hazard mitigation programs are
costly and hazard mitigation funds are scarce. Therefore, the emergency manager might
want to focus his or her attention for technological hazards on critical infrastructure.
Critical infrastructure is defined as assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or
virtual, that are so vital to the United States, your State or local community that the
incapacity or destruction of such assets, systems, or networks would have a debilitating
impact on security, national economic security, public health or safety, or any
combination.
The critical infrastructure that keeps your community running includes, but is not
limited to, the electrical grid, telecommunications networks, natural gas network, and key
transportation nodes. Threats or hazards of all types may render those critical systems or
key assets inoperable or dysfunctional. If we view critical infrastructure as targets of
opportunity, then some carry value for both their disruption impact and the potential for a
mass casualty incident. Much of each community’s critical infrastructure is dangerously
exposed and therefore exceedingly vulnerable.
The agriculture/food sector is a source of essential commodity and accounts for
close to one-fifth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States. A significant
percentage of that figure also contributes to its export economy. The United States
exports approximately one-quarter of its farm and ranch products. The remainder is used
to feed its own people. The water sector consists of two basic, yet vital, components:
freshwater supply and wastewater collection and treatment. The public water systems
depend on reservoirs, dams, wells, and aquifers, as well as treatment facilities, pumping
stations, aqueducts, and transmission pipelines. Wastewater utilities collect and treat
sewage and process water from domestic, commercial, and industrial sources. It also
includes systems collecting and sometimes treating stormwater runoff.
Clean water is indeed a vital resource that sustains communities, supports
agricultural production, and plays a critical role in various aspects of human life. Access
to safe and reliable water is essential for meeting basic needs such as drinking, cooking,
and sanitation, as well as for supporting economic activities and ensuring public health.
In addition to its fundamental importance for human well-being, water has become
increasingly scarce and valuable in many parts of the world, particularly in regions
affected by drought, climate change, and competing demands for water resources. As
populations grow, industrialization advances, and climate patterns shift, the availability
of clean water is becoming more precarious, posing significant challenges for sustainable
development and resource management.
Access to clean water is essential for maintaining public health, preventing
waterborne diseases, and ensuring the well-being of communities. Reliable water sources
are needed for drinking, cooking, bathing, and sanitation, as well as for supporting
healthcare facilities, schools, and households. Water is a fundamental resource for
agricultural production, providing irrigation for crops, livestock watering, and
aquaculture. In many parts of the world, agriculture is the largest consumer of water, and
efficient water management practices are crucial for ensuring food security, enhancing
crop yields, and sustaining rural livelihoods. Water plays a central role in various
economic sectors, including manufacturing, energy production, mining, and tourism.
Industries rely on water for processes such as cooling, cleaning, and transportation, while
hydroelectric power generation harnesses the energy of flowing water to produce
electricity. Healthy aquatic ecosystems depend on clean and sufficient water supplies to
support diverse flora and fauna. Rivers, lakes, wetlands, and oceans provide habitat for
wildlife, regulate climate patterns, and contribute to ecological balance. Protecting water
quality and preserving natural water sources are essential for maintaining biodiversity
and ecosystem services. Climate change is altering precipitation patterns, melting
glaciers, and exacerbating water scarcity in many regions. Sustainable water management
practices, such as water conservation, watershed protection, and drought-resistant crop
cultivation, are essential for building resilience to climate-related challenges and ensuring
the availability of water for future generations.
The public health sector consists of state and local health departments, hospitals,
health clinics, mental health facilities, nursing homes, blood supply facilities,
laboratories, mortuaries, and pharmaceutical stockpiles. The ability to protect the health
of residents is not only one of the greatest qualities of a nation’s life, but the
pharmaceutical industry also can be a major element of the economy. The emergency
services sector consists of highly mobile teams of specialized personnel and equipment. It
includes fire, emergency medical services (EMS), governmental administration, HazMat
units, law enforcement, public health, health care, public safety communications, public
works, and EMAs that support technological and natural disasters. The defense industrial
base sector consists of the private-sector defense industry and some supporting military
facilities. Private industry manufactures and provides a majority of the equipment,
materials, services, and weaponry used by a nation’s armed forces. National defense is
highly dependent upon the private sector to contribute to the effective execution of its
core defense missions, including mobilization, deployment, and sustainment of a nation’s
military forces abroad. The telecommunications sector provides communications through
voice and data services to public and private users through a complex and diverse public-
network infrastructure encompassing the Public Switched Telecommunications Network
(PSTN), the Internet, and private enterprise networks.
The Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) stands as a cornerstone of
global telecommunications infrastructure, underpinning a vast array of interconnected
systems and services that facilitate communication across vast distances. Established as a
legacy system rooted in the early days of telephony, the PSTN has evolved over time to
embrace a multitude of technologies, from traditional circuit-switched networks to
modern digital and IP-based communication protocols. Originally conceived to provide
basic voice communication services, the PSTN has since expanded its capabilities to
encompass a diverse range of telecommunication offerings. These include not only
traditional telephone services but also data transmission, fax, and specialized leased
point-to-point connections, catering to the multifaceted needs of businesses,
governments, and consumers alike. The ubiquity and reliability of the PSTN have made it
an indispensable tool for global communication, serving as the backbone for countless
interactions, from casual conversations to critical business transactions.
However, the landscape of telecommunications is constantly evolving, driven by
rapid advancements in technology and changing consumer preferences. As such, the
PSTN is no longer the sole player in the telecommunications arena. The emergence of
mobile networks, VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) services, and fiber-optic
infrastructure has ushered in a new era of communication, offering alternative avenues
for voice and data transmission that challenge the traditional dominance of the PSTN.
Moreover, the advent of digital communication technologies has blurred the
distinction between voice and data, leading to the convergence of services previously
segregated within the confines of the PSTN. Voice calls, once the exclusive domain of
circuit-switched networks, can now be transmitted as data packets over IP-based
networks, blurring the lines between traditional telephony and internet-based
communication platforms.
In parallel to these developments, enterprise networks have emerged as dedicated
infrastructures tailored to meet the unique communication needs of large organizations
and industries. Unlike the PSTN, which caters to a broad consumer base, enterprise
networks are customized to address the specific requirements of businesses, offering
tailored solutions for voice and data communication, as well as specialized services such
as virtual private networks (VPNs), unified communications, and cloud-based
collaboration tools.
Enterprise networks play a pivotal role in facilitating internal communication and
collaboration within organizations, providing secure and reliable channels for sharing
information, conducting meetings, and coordinating workflows across geographically
dispersed teams. By leveraging advanced networking technologies and protocols, such as
MPLS (Multiprotocol Label Switching) and SD-WAN (Software-Defined Wide Area
Networking), enterprise networks ensure optimal performance, scalability, and resilience
to meet the demands of modern business operations.
Furthermore, enterprise networks serve as the foundation for digital
transformation initiatives, enabling organizations to embrace emerging technologies such
as IoT (Internet of Things), big data analytics, and artificial intelligence. By integrating
these technologies into their network infrastructure, businesses can unlock new
opportunities for innovation, efficiency, and competitive advantage, driving growth and
success in an increasingly digital-centric world. In conclusion, while the PSTN remains a
critical component of global telecommunications infrastructure, its role is evolving in
response to changing technological trends and consumer demands. Concurrently,
enterprise networks have emerged as specialized platforms tailored to the unique
communication needs of large organizations, empowering businesses to leverage
advanced networking technologies and digital capabilities to drive innovation and success
in the digital age.
The energy sector is divided into two segments: electricity and oil and natural gas.
The electricity industry services almost every household and institution in the developed
world. Almost every form of productive activity—whether in businesses, manufacturing
plants, schools, hospitals, homes, or agriculture—requires electricity. Oil and natural gas
facilities and assets are widely distributed. In the United States, this consists of more than
300,000 producing sites, 4000 offshore platforms, 600 natural gas processing plants, 150
refineries, 1400 product terminals, and 7500 bulk stations. Other oil- and natural gas-
producing nations could post equally impressive numbers. The transportation sector
consists of several key modes: aviation, maritime traffic, rail, pipelines, highways,
trucking, busing, and public mass transit. The diversity and size of the transportation
sector makes it vital to the economy and national security of any developed nation. The
banking/finance sector consists of a variety of physical structures, such as buildings and
financial utilities. The financial utilities infrastructure includes electronic devices such as
computers, storage devices, and telecommunications networks. Many financial service
employees have highly specialized skills and are therefore considered essential elements
of the industry’s critical infrastructure. The financial industry relies heavily on continued
public confidence and involvement to maintain normal operations; financial stability is
dependent on these areas.
Indeed, disasters, whether natural or human-made, possess the potential to disrupt
telecommunications infrastructure significantly, thereby precipitating notable changes in
the economic landscape of vital market areas. Such disruptions can manifest in various
forms, ranging from physical damage to network infrastructure caused by natural
calamities like hurricanes, earthquakes, or wildfires, to cyberattacks targeting critical
communication systems, and even regulatory changes impacting industry operations. In
the aftermath of a disaster, the telecommunications sector often finds itself at the
forefront of recovery efforts, as the restoration of communication networks is crucial for
coordinating emergency response activities, disseminating vital information to affected
populations, and facilitating the resumption of normal business operations. The ability of
telecommunications providers to rapidly deploy resources, repair damaged infrastructure,
and restore connectivity can have a profound impact on the overall resilience and
recovery of communities and economies in the affected areas.
However, the economic ramifications of disasters on the telecommunications
sector extend beyond immediate recovery efforts. Disruptions to communication
networks can impede the flow of goods and services, disrupt supply chains, and hinder
business continuity, leading to productivity losses, revenue declines, and increased
operational costs for businesses operating in affected regions. Moreover, the loss of
connectivity can undermine consumer confidence, deter investment, and weaken the
overall economic competitiveness of the impacted area. In some cases, disasters may also
serve as catalysts for transformative changes within the telecommunications sector,
prompting industry stakeholders to reevaluate existing infrastructure, technologies, and
business models in light of emerging threats and vulnerabilities. For instance, the
increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events driven by climate change
have spurred investment in resilient network infrastructure, disaster recovery capabilities,
and alternative energy sources to mitigate the impact of future disasters.
Similarly, cyberattacks targeting critical communication systems have prompted
heightened cybersecurity measures, increased collaboration between public and private
sector entities, and the development of new regulatory frameworks to safeguard against
emerging threats. These efforts aim to enhance the sector's resilience to cyber threats and
minimize the potential economic fallout from disruptive cyber incidents. Overall,
disasters have the potential to exert profound and far-reaching effects on the
telecommunications sector and the broader economy. By understanding and addressing
the vulnerabilities exposed by such events, stakeholders can work towards building more
resilient and adaptive communication networks capable of withstanding future challenges
and ensuring the continued stability and prosperity of essential market areas.
The chemical industry and hazardous materials sector provides products essential
to the economy and standard of living of most nations. The chemical industry
manufactures products that are fundamental elements of other economic sectors. For
example, it produces fertilizer for agriculture and chlorine for water purification. In the
United States, more than $100 billion of the sector’s products go to health care.
Currently, the chemical sector in the United States is the nation’s top exporter,
accounting for 10 cents of every export dollar. The postal/shipping sector is relied on
heavily for the delivery of billions of pieces of mail and packages all over the world
daily. Any nation’s postal system is highly dependent on and interconnected with other
key infrastructure systems, especially the transportation sector. The postal service
depends on a fleet of both service-owned and contractor-operated vehicles and
equipment.
Absolutely, the transportation and logistics sector plays a vital role in facilitating
the movement of mail, packages, and goods across various modes of transportation,
including commercial aircraft, trucks, railroads, and ships. This infrastructure is not only
essential for the efficient operation of commerce but also for enabling people to
communicate and stay connected. Commercial aircraft serve as a crucial means of
transporting time-sensitive mail and packages over long distances, connecting distant
regions and facilitating global trade. Air cargo networks operated by airlines and
dedicated freight carriers ensure the swift and reliable delivery of goods, including
perishable items, high-value merchandise, and urgent documents. Additionally, air
transportation enables expedited delivery services, allowing businesses and individuals to
meet tight deadlines and fulfill customer expectations.
Trucking plays a central role in the last-mile delivery of mail and packages,
bridging the gap between distribution centers and end consumers. Trucking companies
operate extensive networks of delivery routes, transporting goods to residential
neighborhoods, commercial establishments, and remote locations inaccessible by other
modes of transportation. The flexibility and versatility of trucking make it indispensable
for fulfilling diverse logistical requirements and supporting e-commerce activities.
Railroads contribute to the efficient movement of bulk shipments and large
volumes of freight, offering cost-effective transportation solutions for mail, parcels, and
goods. Freight railroads operate extensive networks of track spanning vast distances,
connecting major metropolitan areas, industrial centers, and ports. Rail transportation is
particularly well-suited for transporting heavy and bulky cargo over long distances,
reducing road congestion and carbon emissions while enhancing supply chain efficiency.
Maritime shipping plays a critical role in facilitating international trade and global
commerce, transporting goods and parcels across oceans and continents. Container ships,
cargo vessels, and maritime logistics networks form the backbone of global supply
chains, carrying a diverse range of products, raw materials, and commodities. Ports and
shipping terminals serve as key nodes in the transportation network, facilitating the
loading and unloading of cargo and ensuring seamless connectivity between different
modes of transportation. The integration of these transportation modes within a cohesive
logistics framework enables the efficient and reliable movement of mail, packages, and
goods from origin to destination.
The following sections list key assets, according to the National Strategy for the
Physical Protection of Critical Infrastructure and Key Assets. Protection of national
monuments and icons typically combines the authorities, responsibilities, and resources
of federal, state, and local jurisdictions, and, in some cases, private foundations. Imagine
the importance of preserving the Washington Monument or Statue of Liberty in the
United States. Also, imagine the importance of Eiffel Tower to France, the Taj Mahal to
India, Buckingham Palace to the United Kingdom, the Coliseum to Italy, and so on.
These national treasures and iconic buildings must be preserved at all cost. It should go
without saying that mitigation planning for these structures should be extremely proactive
and a very high priority. Currently, there are 31 countries with nuclear power plants:
United States, France, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Canada, Ukraine, China, Germany,
United Kingdom, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Taiwan, India, Czech Republic, Switzerland,
Finland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Brazil, South Africa, Slovakia, Mexico, Romania, Argentina,
Iran, Pakistan, Slovenia, Netherlands, and Armenia. In some cases (i.e., France, Belgium,
and Slovakia), this capability may represent more than 50% of a nation’s electrical
generation capacity. The United States has more than 100 commercial nuclear reactors in
31 states. Nuclear power plants are among the most strongly constructed structures in a
country.
Nuclear power plants, while offering significant energy benefits, are not
impervious to the threats posed by natural disasters or technological mishaps. The
devastating incidents in Japan, notably the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster of 2011,
and in Ukraine, with the infamous Chernobyl catastrophe of 1986, serve as poignant
reminders of the potential risks associated with nuclear energy generation. In the case of
Fukushima, a massive earthquake followed by a tsunami overwhelmed the plant's safety
systems, leading to multiple reactor meltdowns and the release of radioactive materials
into the environment. This event, classified as a Level 7 nuclear accident on the
International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), had far-reaching consequences, including
widespread evacuation, contamination of land and water, and long-term health concerns
for local residents.
Chernobyl, on the other hand, stands as one of the most catastrophic nuclear
accidents in history. A combination of design flaws, operator errors, and inadequate
safety protocols led to a reactor explosion and fire, releasing massive amounts of
radioactive particles into the atmosphere. The aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster
resulted in significant environmental contamination, displacement of populations, and
adverse health effects for thousands of people, as depicted vividly in Chapter 6 of our
discussion. Moreover, beyond the threat of natural disasters and technical failures,
nuclear power plants present an attractive target for terrorist activities. The potential for
sabotage, theft of radioactive materials, or deliberate attacks on critical infrastructure
poses significant security challenges. While stringent security measures are in place at
nuclear facilities worldwide, the ever-evolving nature of terrorism underscores the need
for continuous vigilance and adaptation of security protocols.
Expanding upon these points, it's crucial to delve into the broader context of
nuclear safety and security. International organizations such as the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) play a pivotal role in establishing standards and guidelines to
ensure the safe operation of nuclear facilities and mitigate potential risks. Additionally,
advancements in technology, such as passive safety systems and modular reactor designs,
aim to enhance the resilience of nuclear power plants against both natural and human-
induced threats.
However, despite these efforts, the inherent complexity and potential
consequences of nuclear accidents demand ongoing scrutiny and proactive measures to
minimize risks. Public awareness, transparency in regulatory oversight, and international
cooperation are essential pillars in promoting nuclear safety and security in an
increasingly interconnected world. In conclusion, while nuclear power remains a
significant contributor to global energy needs, it is essential to acknowledge and address
the inherent vulnerabilities and potential hazards associated with its utilization. By
learning from past incidents, investing in robust safety measures, and fostering a culture
of responsibility and accountability, we can strive towards a more sustainable and secure
nuclear energy landscape.
This category consists of larger and symbolic dams that are major components of
other critical infrastructure systems that provide water and electricity to large
populations, cities, and agriculture complexes. In the United States, there are
approximately 80,000 dam facilities identified in the national inventory. Most of these are
small, privately owned dams on farm property. The federal government is responsible for
roughly 10% of the dams in the country, and their failure could cause significant property
damage, have public health and safety consequences, or both. Government facilities is
composed of buildings that governments own and others lease from the private sector.
Government organizations also occupy buildings used by a variety of nongovernmental
tenants, such as shops and restaurants.
Commercial Key Assets consists of prominent commercial centers, office
buildings, sports stadiums, theme parks, and other sites where large numbers of people
congregate to pursue business activities, conduct personal commercial transactions, or
enjoy recreational activities. Day-to-day protection of such facilities is the responsibility
of their commercial owners and operators, in close cooperation with local law
enforcement. At the national level, the government is normally responsible for providing
timely threat indicators and warnings. This includes the inherent responsibility to protect
large gatherings of citizens. The threat of severe weather or credible threat of terrorism to
a stadium complex on game day is a prime example of this.
F. Terrorism and Technological Hazards
The potential for terrorism is nearly unlimited, which is especially true when one
imagines a terrorist group utilizing deadly manmade substances against soft targets (e.g.,
schools, churches, etc.). A successful attack on critical infrastructure and key assets could
have tremendous impact beyond the immediate target, and could continue to resurface
through other related or interdependent infrastructures long after the immediate damage
is done. Terrorists are inventive and resourceful in terms of target selection, as well as in
their use of specific instruments of violence and intimidation. To achieve their objectives,
terrorists may choose to target critical infrastructures and key assets as a low-risk means
to generate mass casualties, shock, and panic.
The immediate damage to facilities and disruption of services that resulted from
the attacks on September 11, 2001, on the World Trade Center towers, which housed
critical assets of the financial services sector, as well as on the Pentagon, a major military
complex, is a prime example of a terrorist attack on critical infrastructure and key assets.
The attacks led to public disengagement from air travel and other facets of the economy.
Terrorists proved that they could exploit elements of the transportation infrastructure and
hoped that this might have a spreading effect into other critical infrastructures within the
United States, such as participation in and reliance on global economic markets.
Government security officials and emergency first responders have no higher
purpose than to ensure the security of their people and preserve their way of life. The
more we understand and identify our vulnerability to terrorist attacks, the better we can
protect ourselves. Vulnerability is defined as the characteristics of an asset’s design,
location, or operation/ use that render it susceptible to damage, destruction, or
incapacitation by terrorist or other intentional acts, mechanical failures, and natural
hazards. Intelligence gathering over the past 20 years has shown that numerous terrorist
groups have been and are working to obtain chemical, biological, radiological, and
nuclear weapons for the stated purpose of killing large numbers of people. But terrorists
also continue to employ conventional means of attack, such as bombs and guns.
Explosives are a weapon that is easy to procure, assemble, and deliver; they give
terrorists maximum effect with minimum resources. Approximately 80% of all terrorist
acts within involve incendiary and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). At the same
time, they are gaining expertise in less traditional means, such as cyberattacks on
Information Technology and computer systems. The knowledge, technology, and
materials needed to build weapons of mass destruction are spreading. Terrorists can
conceivably steal or obtain chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives
(CBRNE) materials or related technology from states with such capabilities.
Terrorists will also seek to cause widespread disruption and damage, including
casualties, by attacking computer and electronic networks. Computer and electronic
networks are linked to other critical infrastructure, such as energy, financial, and security
networks. Terrorist groups are already exploiting new information technology and the
Internet to plan attacks, raise funds, spread propaganda, collect information,
communicate securely, and manage global resources.
Vulnerability assessment is a process to identify, evaluate, and assess
susceptibility to natural and technological hazards (Figure 7.7). Through a vulnerability
assessment, areas of weakness and potential actions that would exploit those weaknesses
are identified, and the effectiveness of additional security measures is assessed (DHS,
2006). Next, we lay out a simple, six-step HVA process that can be used when planning
for technological hazards in general, as well as the protection of critical infrastructure and
key assets. Form an assessment team made up of key personnel who can identify critical
infrastructure and key assets and are knowledgeable of manmade hazards. Construct a
blank Hazard Vulnerability Assessment matrix with columns for each hazard, a possible
scenario, the probability of an event, and the impact of such an event is for people,
property, operations, the environment and the entity making the assessment. In addition,
add a column for the highest impact rating and risk rating Begin filling out a matrix for
identifying technological hazards and pit those against critical infrastructure or key assets
found within the community to create a hazard and scenario combination. Ultimately, this
should enable the team to evaluate the potential vulnerability of the critical infrastructure
and key assets against a broad range of identified threats. The assessment team should
assign relative probabilities (with values ranging from 0 to 3) for each hazard and
scenario combination. Impact values are subjectively ranked on a scale of 15, with 5
being the highest impact. The team should rank each of the five impact areas (people,
property, operations, environment, and entity). Calculate the risk rating, which is the
value of the probability figure for a hazard/scenario combination multiplied by the
highest impact rating for any of the five areas assessed.
HVA analyzes the threat, critical infrastructure/key asset value, and vulnerability
to ascertain the level of risk for each critical infrastructure/key asset against each
applicable threat. In this example, the two scenarios shown at the top of the matrix
produced the highest risk rating. Community attention and assets for mitigation measures
should be placed there. In the simple HVA matrix shown in Figure 7.9, impact analysis
was assessed on a scale of 15. So, for example, Major fire in the ABC plastics factory
would have a moderate to high effect (3) on Property and the Environment, a low to
moderate effect (2) on People and Operations, and a low effect (1) on the Entity (in this
case, the EMA). The assessment team may use any reasonable approach or scale to
quantitatively determine the impact of any hazard on the community and entity making
the assessment. FEMA gives more detailed guidance for business impact analysis, which
is performed in business continuity planning activities. Business continuity professionals
should visit the FEMA website listed at the end of this chapter for that information.
HVA is the basis for developing a comprehensive emergency management
program. It evaluates what events could happen, the likelihood of these events occurring,
and the magnitude of problems created because of a given event. By identifying potential
events that could occur, efforts can be directed toward mitigation activities and
developing needed response plans. Although this is not a complex task, it does require a
comprehensive review of the natural and technological (manmade) hazards of the region.
Consideration must be given to the possibility of damage or failure of facilities, loss of
basic utilities, and multiple casualty events, to name just a few possibilties. The
organization must also consider the effect of a loss of trust from the community, as well
as legal ramifications, if it fails to respond properly. Consulting with local emergency
planners, public health, fire, police, public works, and utility company officials is
essential to the process of identifying current hazards and historical events that have
occurred in the region. Examples of this would be obtaining information on the region’s
100-year flood plain record, hurricane or severe storm experience, earthquake potential,
utility outage records, and hazardous material concerns in the area.
Vulnerability assessment (natural hazards) helps to inventory assets in the
community that will be affected by hazard events. The first task for compiling an
inventory list is to determine the number and value of the buildings and the total
estimated population within the hazard areas. If resources are available, a detailed
inventory of assets can be compiled. Impact analysis is done by estimating the expected
losses from hazard events to people, buildings, and other important assets that are
compiled during inventory. Comprehensive loss estimation should assess the level of
damage from natural hazards, including the contents and functions of the buildings or
assets and the risk to the structure itself. The hazard mitigation plan should also address
repetitive loss properties and development trends, including scheduled infrastructure,
while conducting risk and vulnerability assessment. HVA for manmade (technological)
hazards begins by looking within a community for where these hazards exist. Multiple
sources of data must be collated to determine the threat of these hazards and the relative
risk they bring to a community.
