Getting Answers in the Robbery Scenario
1. What theories might you consider about the time and location of this offence?
◦ The fact that the jewellery store is in a strip mall may have been a factor in the robbers
selecting this location as a target. This type of business premises allows for drive by viewing
of the inside of the premises, as well as quick access and exit to the outside parking area.
This location also allows for the suspects to maintain an ongoing look-out for approaching
police response.
◦ The time of the offence could have been intentionally chosen closer to the end of the day on a
Saturday in the hope that more cash would be in the store. Depending on the typical customer
traffic volume in the mall area on a Saturday, the suspects may have hoped for more traffic
volume to assist with their escape.
2. Can you develop any theories about the level of planning that went into the robbery?
◦ Since the suspects arrived in disguise, armed with handguns, and carrying bags to take
away the proceeds of the robbery, it might be theorized that they took some time to put
together this special equipment to carry out the crime.
◦ The precision with which the robbery was carried out (e.g. completed in five minutes,
one suspect guarding the door, all persons ordered onto the floor) would indicate a high
level of planning to orchestrate this robbery.
3. How well did these three suspects know each other?
◦ It is very likely that the three suspects knew each other well enough to establish the
level of trust required to carry out the robbery.
◦ The type of goods taken in this robbery, except for the cash, would need to be converted to
cash to be divided up later. This could indicate that a longer term relationship exists
between these robbers.
◦ The planning that is apparent would indicate that the suspects spent some time together to
plan, collect the necessary equipment, and divide up the proceeds of the robbery.
4. Is it possible the suspects had been at the store sometime prior to this robbery?
◦ To plan this robbery and execute it with this level of precision, it is very likely that the
suspects spent at least some time looking over the premises and the surrounding area to plan
their approach, execute the robbery, and plan their escape.
5. What relevant theories might be considered from the way the suspects were dressed?
◦ It appears that all three suspects were wearing similar outfits with dark jackets, blue jeans, and
ski masks. This may indicate that the suspects deliberately purchased specific gear for
committing a crime.
◦ This clothing might be considered somewhat non-descript, and not easily distinguishable or
unique for a witness to accurately or specifically describe the fleeing suspects. The use of
masks and non-descript outfits might indicate that the criminals were experienced.
◦ The fact that they are all wearing jackets on a summer day in August might indicate that they
were covering up tattoos, scars, or other distinguishing features that might otherwise assist in
identifying the suspects.
◦ The fact that all suspects were wearing gloves would indicate that they are aware that any
fingerprints left behind could identify them.
6. What relevant theories might be made from handguns being carried by the robbers?
◦ Handguns are more easily concealed and may be the weapon of choice for more
professional criminals.
◦ Handguns are more difficult to obtain, and legal handguns are generally registered, so it is
likely that these were unregistered or stolen handguns.
7. What might be theorized from the way they carried out the robbery?
◦ From the overall planning and precision in the execution of the robbery, it might be
theorized that this is not the first robbery that these three have done together. This method
may have been used elsewhere.
8. What might be theorized considering the items taken?
◦ Considering that the items taken were specialty items and that some were marked with
identifying serial numbers, it might be theorized that the robbers have a prearranged or
preplanned means of disposing of the items or otherwise converting them to cash.
Alternately, the fact that they have taken items that are identifiable by serial numbers
may indicate a level of haste or even inexperience because these items, if discovered after
being sold, may be traced back to the robbery suspects.
8. Were these three suspects working alone?
◦ Considering the speed of execution and the apparent level of planning that went into this
robbery, it is possible that there was a fourth accomplice waiting outside in a get-away
vehicle.
◦ There is a possibility that the suspects had some inside knowledge of the jewellery
store and the inventory through association with a person connected to the store.
9. Who else might be involved?
◦ A fourth criminal associate as a get-away driver and lookout.
◦ A customer inside the store, at the time of the robbery, acting as a scout.
◦ A current or former employee of the store may have provided inside information.
◦ The owner/manager of the store could be involved as part of an insurance fraud scheme.
Topic 3: Answers to Possible Theories in the Robbery Scenario
Theory #1
This is a well-planned robbery executed by three or four experienced criminals. In addition to the three
suspects in the store, there might have been an outside get-away driver acting as a lookout. They
intentionally selected this store because of the strip mall location and the easy access to inventory by
smashing the display cabinets. They were wearing disguises and jackets to avoid facial identification
and possible tattoo or scar identification. They were wearing gloves probably because they already
have criminal records and know that any fingerprints left behind may allow for the suspects to be
identified. The suspects gained the information to execute their robbery by conducting surveillance on
the store. They intentionally selected the date and time to conduct the robbery because of customer
traffic patterns. They have some means of converting or disposing of the stolen items for cash.
Considering the precision of the crime, this is likely not their first robbery of this type. The possession
of handguns also indicates they are likely professional criminals.
Theory #2
As with Theory #1, this is a well-planned robbery executed by three or four experienced criminals;
however, the store was selected because they had an inside person, employee, or former employee
working with them, and were provided with information to assist in the plan.
Theory #3
As with Theory #1, this is a well-planned robbery executed by three or four experienced criminals;
however, the store owner/manager is a conspirator in the robbery, and assisted with the offence to
collect insurance with the possible additional intent to be the person who resells the stolen
merchandise. If this is the case, the owner/ manager may be providing an inflated inventory of items
taken or perhaps incorrect serial numbers for the items taken to allow for the stolen items to be more
easily disposable.
Topic 4: Answers – Investigative Plans From Theory Development
Do the theories above present any avenues where you can investigate further to gain additional
information? Theory #1
• Since it is likely not their first robbery of this kind, we should search police records for other
robberies using this similar modus operandi (MO) in the recent past and in our area and its
surrounding areas. We would be looking for similarities in:
1. Target selection
2. Number of suspects
3. Disguises used
4. Weapons of choice
5. Methodology (i.e. guard at door, making patrons lie down on the floor, bags to carry away
goods)
• Considering the likelihood that these suspects conducted surveillance of this store to select it as a
target, we should look at security cameras in the strip mall area and from the victim’s store for
images of possible suspects watching the store on the previous Saturday at this same time.
• Since a few of the items stolen had serial numbers, these numbers can be entered into CPIC as
identifiers to stolen property.
• Since the handguns used were likely stolen, we should look for incidents of stolen handguns
recently reported.
Theory #2
• Considering the possibility that an inside person, employee, or former employee is involved and
provided the robbers with information, we should look closely into the criminal record and police
record of the employees present at the time of the crime, as well as any other employees or former
employees who can be identified. We are looking for:
1. Evidence of criminal conduct by any employee or former employee
2. Information of any associations between the employees or former employees to
criminals, particularly those with records for robbery
3. Information from the owner/manager about suspicious conduct on the part of an
employee, a past employee, or a disgruntled past employee
4. Since customers inside the store at the time of the robbery may have also been in collusion
with the robbers, all three customers should be examined for criminal histories or
associations to known criminals.
Theory #3
• If the owner/manager is involved in the robbery for the proposes of insurance fraud and/or
inventory resale, we should examine several areas for evidence and information:
1. Any past record of criminal conduct by the owner/manager, particularly insurance fraud
2. A record of association to known criminals
3. A record of insurance policy status on inventory, particularly recent increases
4. Cross-check and verification of product inventories against items alleged to be stolen
5. Verification of accuracy of serial numbers on items stolen against supplier inventory
records.
Topic 5: Validation of the Report
Based on the theories considered in our robbery investigation, everyone present in the jewellery store at
the time of the robbery is being considered a possible suspect. This is a part of analysis and theory
development called validating the report. In criminal investigations, it occurs time and again that
people reporting criminal events will lie, fabricate, or embellish, the facts. These failures to provide an
accurate account of what happened occur for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to:
• Personal gain or financial reward, such as insurance fraud
• Attempting to take revenge on someone by accusing them of a crime
• Covering up personal involvement in the criminal act to avoid prosecution
• Attempting to shift responsibility for a crime to someone else
• Covering up the involvement of an associate to divert prosecution
With these kinds of motives in mind, an investigator analyzing and validating the facts and developing
a theory of the crime should always consider four key questions to authenticate the crime report:
1. Does the evidence support the report that an offence occurred?
2. If an offence did occur, did it happen at the time being reported?
3. If an offence did occur, did it happen at the place being reported?
4. If an offence did occur, did it happen the way the fact pattern being reported suggests (Arcaro,
2009)?
Thinking about these questions as part of the Analysis can help the investigator to formulate possible
theories and develop effective investigative plans.
At this point in the investigative process, as theories are developed and tested, additional new facts are
discovered. With the discovery of new facts, the Analysis and Investigation steps of the STAIR tool
become, as noted earlier, a bit of a circular process, where a new fact can confirm, disprove, or modify
a theory, and a new investigative plan may evolve in a new direction seeking the formation of
reasonable grounds to believe a particular suspect is responsible for the offence.
Topic 6: Evidence Transfer Theory
In our robbery scenario, the reported fact pattern appears to be fairly clear. The investigative strategies
being planned are aimed at suspect identification as a first goal. But, once a suspect or suspects have
been identified, because of some circumstantial association or linkage to the crime scene, it does not
mean they can immediately be arrested. Often, these kinds of linkages are sufficient to only provide
grounds for suspicion and are not enough to form reasonable grounds for belief to make an arrest.
The ability to link a suspect back to a crime and to form reasonable grounds for belief to make an arrest
can depend on the existing evidence transfer. Evidence transfer means that evidence will transfer from
a suspect to the crime scene, a suspect to a victim, from the crime scene to the victim, or from the
crime scene to the suspect. Modern forensic science has evolved into forensic specialties that look for
evidence transfer. For example, with the advances being made in DNA science, evidence transfer is
becoming more refined allowing the analysis of ever smaller samples for comparison (Savino, 2011).
Remarkably, it is not just DNA or fingerprints that can contribute to connecting a suspect to a criminal
event. Hair and fibre, shoe prints, tool marks, bite marks, ballistics, and other forensic exhibits do
contribute to the range of comparison tools. We will discuss these more in-depth later in our chapter on
forensic evidence; however, the point is that forensic comparisons are only one form of evidence that is
developed to create circumstantial connections between a suspect, the crime, and/or the victim.
Topic 7: Spatial Relationships and Timelines
Other circumstantial evidence can be illustrated that connect suspects to the crime through
relationships, associations, and chronology. This type of circumstantial evidence can include exhibits
and witness statements that demonstrate spatial relationships. Spatial relationships are circumstantial
links that demonstrate connections between objects, events, or people. This can be any type of evidence
that demonstrates a connection or relationship between the suspect and the criminal event or the
suspect and the victim. It could also be evidence that demonstrates where a suspect was during the
critical times when the crime was occurring.
Recall the example of the young man standing behind a tree one block away from the scene of the
warehouse break in. This was an example of both timeline evidence, namely being present at the scene
when the event took place, and spatial relationship evidence, namely being one block away from the
crime scene. This kind of evidence can be considered by the investigator in forming reasonable
suspicion and reasonable grounds to believe and take action at a later point in time.
Topic 8: Timeline Evidence
Timeline evidence is any item that demonstrates a time alignment of the suspect to the criminal event
or the victim. Spatial relationship evidence comes from items that demonstrate other types of
connections, relationships, or associations. Consider for example, the following scenario.
Timeline evidence would include:
• 12 Noon: time the body was found by the janitor
• 10 AM: time the victim’s flight arrived
• 10 AM: time the suspect’s flight arrived
• 10:45 AM: time the suspect was recorded on security camera near the crime scene
This timeline evidence provides some significant information, as it establishes a time range when the
crime occurred and it establishes that the suspect was at the airport during the possible time of the
crime.
Topic 9: Spatial Relationship Evidence
• Victim and suspect’s boarding passes show that they were both on Fight AC201 and were
seated next to each other
• Security video puts the suspect in the area of the crime scene during the timeframe when the crime
occurred
• The suspect is an airport employee and was in possession of a key that would open the door of
the crime scene
It is important to note here that the items of evid, in this case, ase are not forensic exhibits such as
fingerprints or DNA that might draw a definite link between the suspect and the crime. They are
instead linkages in times and common locations within those times. These connections within time and
locations are spatial relationships, and although this circumstantial evidence from spatial relationships
alone is not sufficient to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, it is often sufficient to form reasonable
grounds to believe that an individual is implicated in the offence. In this case, the suspect would be
detained and cautioned. Additional forensic evidence collection and interrogation would follow to
develop reasonable grounds for belief and possibly the grounds to lay a charge, if additional forensic
evidence could be developed.
Summary
In this chapter, we have worked through some scenarios demonstrating the application of the STAIR
tool in both tactical and strategic investigative processes. In working through the strategic process, we
have practiced examining the fact patterns of events and making the assumptions to drive theory
development directing the engagement of our investigative plans. This is truly the creative art of the
investigative process and, as such, it is a process that can be enhanced through practice and experience.
This can also be a great opportunity for collaboration and teamwork where brainstorming sessions take
place to analyze the facts, develop theories, and develop investigative plans. Along with theory
development and investigative plan making, we have examined the ways physical and circumstantial
evidence of spatial relationships can be used to confirm, negate, and modify theories and investigative
plans.