ASSESSING AND EVALUATING FUTURE EXISTENTIAL RISKS TO GLOBAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESILIENCE STRATEGIES

ASSESSING AND EVALUATING FUTURE EXISTENTIAL RISKS TO GLOBAL

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESILIENCE STRATEGIES

1. Introduction

1.1. Background and Rationale

New global risks are related to the growing complexity and interdependence of world

systems, and they are called existential threats, which are events that can endanger civilization or

even humanity as a whole (Tahtinen, 2022). These risks are approaching a large number of

threats, from natural and technological risks to postmodern high-tech risks; thus, these risks are

gradually discussed in the framework of global risk management and strategies for resilience. It

means that one must know about the academic, as well as the industrial reputation in terms of

crisis risk management and overall responses. The latest literature review indicates that a wide

range of disciplines needs sound and effective crisis management solutions. Tähtinen, (2022) in

his work support institutional structures and the way they manage the crisis especially within the

built environment and pointed out that the nature of threats within a given context define the

efficiency of the response to crises. This mentality supports the need for integrating resilience

into critical infrastructure and spatial planning as the other dimensions of existential risk

mitigation. But Turchin and Denkenberger (2022) have proposed existential and global

catastrophic risk communication scale while giving consideration to the communication skills. It

also stated that their work has established that in order to cope with these threats; focus should be

made to the overall risk communication to the stakeholders and the public. When there is no

well-structured channel of communication, there is high possibility of mishandling of crises due

to wrong perception and wrong priorities.

1.2. Scope and Objectives

As Zabaniotou (2020) defined systemic vulnerabilities, the disruptions related to the

pandemic revealed that global losses cause a number of systemic failures. The COVID-19

pandemic also showed how all three humans, social, and ecological systems are connected. This

was realized during the period of the epidemic. Hence, due to the fact that the present crisis

management system is not interdisciplinary in nature, this systemic approach requires that

ecological stability and social endurance be included in a framework for crisis management. The

main goals outlined for this study article relate to analysis and identification of potential risks

that may occur and also to outline the current and potential strategies that may be adopted in the

promotion of resilience. its objective is to specify the methods and the theories, regarding the

examination of the emergency management in the uncertain environment.

2. Conceptual Framework

2.1. Theoretical Perspectives on Existential Risk

Information about existential risks and their solutions includes a number of concepts that

are directly associated with the philosophical and theoretical approaches to the threats which

may lead to the human extinction or would pose a threat to the future of the civilization.

According to Ord (2020) with existential risk management, it is more than a duty towards the

living generation, it is about the responsibility towards the future of all human possibilities. In

his report, he focuses on so called concept of a “moral weight” stating that any inabilities to

manage such catastrophic risks may lead to consequences that cannot be reversed. This

worldview is built upon long-termism, a philosophical opinion which acting in favor of

prioritizing acts in the far future. In it, there is an insistence that the worth of future generations

is a moral issue that demands risk minimization opportunities to be plucked instantly and

intelligently right now. The authors Schuster and Woods (2021) take more skeptical view and

challenge the norms that are embedded in the classical risk theory. In their examination of the

concept of catastrophe they state that rather than being singular and isolated events systemic

disruptions can better be understood as emerging from networks that are intensely connected,

and fragile. The premise of these theories is that in order to be effective risk management cannot

solely rely on analyzing the relative likelihoods of events and must become more reliant on

system’s thinking that recognizes the connectedness of the global environment.

2.2. Frameworks for Understanding Existential Risk Dynamics

Frameworks were developed with the knowledge and intention of providing structured

methods for the identification, (and in some cases, management of) risks to the whole world.

Mitro and Shaw (2023) say these frameworks were developed with the purpose of improving the

understanding of processes typical for existential risk. While in the study of "Global Assessment

Report on Disaster Risk Reduction," McGlade et al.,2019 stated that total policies that lapses for

sustainability and resilience should include element of risk reduction. The company which is

Public is has a number of steps it follows in order to accomplish a broad risk analysis in order to

come up with a successful result. It is in the area of risk assessment, likely effects, and important

links that the strategy of interests comes in. Within the framework of risk analysis, this all-

embracing approach attempts to demonstrate, how one large-scale disaster can impact on other

systems. Mitro and Shaw (2023) maintained that a good background on the research done on

systemic risk is given to scholars to help them appreciate the complex interconnectivity of the

society that is present today. They stress that the approach which has been described earlier is

crucial and stress that this is the case due to the existence of this rationale. They also offer some

recommendations about how risk management models should be developed in order to create

global initiatives in the prevention of broad threats as these models should be recursive and

complex. As to the solutions of the scenarios which need the type of the comprehensive

intervention, these models are extremely useful.

In addition, however, such frameworks are beneficial criticisms have emerged that point

out to the fact that the frameworks they have are limited on their own. Schuster, Woods (2021)

stated that most of the models in use, have a tendency to oversimplify global systems. They point

out that in many instances risk assessment frameworks employ only quantitative analysis that is

inadequate to provide a full spectrum of potential disruptive events. Unfortunately, these metrics

do not consider non-linear dynamics and the unpredictable system behavior when failures

cascade. A weakness Patton (2021) has pointed out about many crisis management methods is

that most of them cannot be adjusted to suit the different circumstances present during disasters.

That is understandable when he analyzed risk frameworks, people tend to stick to established

processes that are averse to new finding and technology. These frameworks are stubborn and can

be a disadvantage in today’s threat evolving environment. Besides this, Sears (2021) voice

concern over the proliferation of a fragmented approach in the management of international

risks. Sears (2021), notably, underlines the idea that a common issue emerging from his

comparative study is that the disparate nature of policies from one country to another undermines

the effectiveness of coordinated international risk management efforts, and he then urges for

more synergistic arrangements.

These difficulties have been recognized by the most recent changes in risk assessment

methods and are sought to improve flexibility and adaptation. In the same owe, Millett and

Snyder-Beattie (2017) also support the progressive stance in biosecurity since it encourages

prevention of future bio-incidents. These steps epitomes the need to actively fund and champion

scientific progress just as much is responsibilities of delivering data as threats metamorphic into

usable strategies in real time. Liu, Lauta, and Maas underline that there is a need for

organizations to incorporate details from previous crises to the adaptive governance models. Risk

management policies recommended the endogenous mechanism that is forever active in response

to new information and developments in the world market. Adaptive governance models are

described as type of governance. The shift from risk management in which novel case and

extensive data investments make up the framework is the best step to embracing existential risk

management. Liu, Lauta, and Maas (2020) stressing the importance of constantly changing

threats and the related measures that incorporate the current knowledge of threat and risk. Due to

the issues posed by globalization, the field still continues as theorists consider together views

from other fields to bring real solutions to theoretical claims.

3. Methodology

3.1. Literature Review

The new literature on existential and global catastrophic risks and the threat identification

and management shows that threat governance is a complex and limited timeframe process. In

the paper "Climate Change and Global Catastrophic Risk," Beard et al., (2021) build upon the

concept that climate change is interconnected with the environment because the environmental

damage is not a simple process. Critics of recent amendments to the Paris agreement argue that

the existential dimension of climate change is not confined to the direct impacts that are defined

as sea level rise and heat waves to the second order impacts including food scarcity, human

migration, and resource conflicts. The study also identifies how the combined climate risks

increase the likelihood of huge and complete failures of global systems. Beard et al. (2021) are

pointing out that climate change exacerbates other risks and enhances inequality, which is why it

has become the challenge of the global governance. This kind of view is in harmony with the

opinion that holistic risk management should address the complexity and interconnectivity of the

environments on which society relies to provide the conditions for human life to continue into

the far future without threats that can cause its termination.

The topic of international governance as a solution to existential risks is present

throughout the publications. In the recent survey conducted by Boyd and Wilson (2020) climate

change, nuclear threats, and super intelligent AI were ranked as threats that should attract more

attention from the international actors. They argue that at the present the former are not yet fully

harmonized, some of the latter are rather primitive and conditioned by selfish and formal, often

rhetoric, short-term political considerations. The authors see several compelling reasons why

governance mechanisms should become more purposefully integrated and substantive in the

long-run approach to risk management than the short-run possible political gains. They say that

existential risks should be front and center on the international stage, in the same way that

economic stability or human rights are. But, according to Boyd and Wilson in their study, the

majority of the international institutions were observed to have inadequate direction, structure,

and mandate to address such risks. This is a governance issue because existential risks comprise

of several and interconnected challenges that require collaboration from different countries. This

type of a risk management approach may continue being a rather uncoordinated and hectic

endeavor in the absence of enhanced international cooperation.

This approach of anticipatory governance has emerged as a possible strategy to these

existential risks while calling for the proactive measures. In light of the paper by Boyd & Wilson

(2021), this section will describe preventive and preparatory models of anticipatory governance

for the catastrophic event in order to avoid and be ready for it. In their view, the traditional

paradigm of management is rather naive and actions are taken when things have gone wrong and

have led to a loss. Instead of that, anticipatory governance tries to assure that policies and

strategies, which are developed by the integrated approach of scenario planning, risk assessment

and strategic foresight are prepared for. The authors make a special focus on the fact that this

approach presupposes the integration of the technical expertise and collaboration of the

governmental and academic institutions and the private sector. As an example to this, the variety

of the foresight tools which can be applied in practice can help to enhance the analysis of the

threats, because it provides recommendations on the basis of the rational forecast of tendencies

for resource management. Even though this the case, there are challenges that whist trying to

implement such proactive governance there are challenges of political will, lack of resources and

institutional rigidness. For Boyd and Wilson, going beyond these challenges means to develop

cultural and structural change in governance institutions that encourages thinking in time

horizons of many decades.

Boyd and Wilson have undertaken an analysis of the use of islands as a space of safety

from the threats from global catastrophes and existence in the year 2021. Mar 28, 2008 Isolation

might be considered as a strength which might be helpful for mankind where epidemic disasters

or nuclear wars along with so on are concerned. This is the area of their work, which is

completely devoted to the subject of geographical sublimity. During the work on the book the

author looks at several factors that affect the effectiveness of such islands. These aspects are such

factors as geographical localization, politico-economic stability, and the possibility of existence.

As the authors correctly note, it must be remembered that the provision of island refuges cannot

in any way be viewed as a form of substitute to normal disaster prevention and preparedness;

however, they emphasize the usefulness of island sanctuaries as types of insurance against some

forms of disaster which could potentially wipe out a large fraction of the population of the Earth.

The results and the issues, which are connected with such strategies and their implementation,

are still to this day on the table. The critics have argued that funding of island sanctuaries may

channel the funds to weak strategies that are not comprehensive and hence cannot help in

minimizing risks. Rather than addressing the above concerns Boyd and Wilson continue to assert

that island refuges should be among the strategies in the overall risk management plan that

complements the strategies that are being used to enhance resilience. As they also point out,

creation of these refuges is not a one man’s show that can be done without a lot of planning or

with the help of other nations to ensure that the right environment is created for these refuges and

proper management of the same.

The framework of the disaster risk management policy and practice that is already in

place and is referred as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) is of huge

significance. These writers must consider the capacity of the Bangladesh SFDRR which is to

enhance the community resilience and the time that is stated on the plan implementation stage. In

the end, they learned that topics that they engaged beforehand evolved, there are still gaps

discovered which cannot easily be solved, especially what relates to resources, community, and

policies. Another point which the authors raise is concerned with the fact that in many cases the

organizations that are actually in charge of disaster management at the state and local level are

not well linked in a given region. Not only may this form of decoupling be detrimental to

resilience tactics, but it can be rather beneficial in those regions that are experiencing climate

change. Some suggestions have pointed that the results of current worldwide and systematic

study might be sued for the decrease of catastrophe risk for all communities of the world

especially the Bangladesh communities. This is why once again we have seen that the

community-based and inclusive approach’s need ascendancy. Originally, the SFDRR aimed at

focusing on readiness and risk assessment and on the early signals inscribed into the concept of

anticipatory governance necessary for managing existential threats. Chisty et al. (2022) also

opined that while the direction of the above monies may require political will that is there as well

as the monies that are required to be directed.

According to their studies, it is the aforementioned precluded societies that are in most

cases the most exposed to such disaster and it is for this reasons that they call for equity of access

and management of disaster risk. Cremer and Kemp (2021) noting this have suggested that

existential risk governance should always have an effect on all the population across the

population even those not in management and leadership roles. The technique is one which

should be employed since it will enable the citizens to possess the optimum amount of influence

in their risk evaluation which will help in enhancing the accountability of the risk decision-

making process. Cremer and Kemp (2021) argue that this method has the potentiality of exerting

useful impacts that would help enhance public acceptability and ensure that societally acceptable

risk management systems are all instituted. The other aspect of democratizing risk is raising the

information throughput and the extent of knowing about the presence of threats. This is done so

that the citizens could be given a chance and the right to be allowed make decision and govern

the issues. Ebi et al. (2021) express different opinions on the application of inclusive governance

in combating Covid-19 and climate change. According to their studies, it is the aforementioned

precluded societies that are in most cases the most exposed to such disaster and it is for this

reasons that they call for equity of access and management of disaster risk. The first line of

argument is that considering more aspects of the case might be helpful in terms of models of the

governance for purpose of risk or risks prevention.

3.2 Case Studies

The case analyses have also been included in this study because the case analyses allow

for a more focused view of how certain categories of existential risks have been addressed and

shows the success and failure in these cases because the case studies also provide real life

background information and examples of how the proposed model has been applied in practice.

Covid 19 and climate change by Ebi et al., (2021) a good effort has been made. The observation

of this research reveals the fundamentals of how two existential risks can mutually escalate. It is

argued that; non-readiness in one sector, such as public health, means non-readiness in another

sector, such as environmental resilience. From this junction it is therefore possible to engage in

risk assessment and planning at the cross sectoral level that is integrative. Similarly, Jovanović et

al. (2020) conduct a study to establish the effectiveness and the sustainability of the health care

systems in the COVID 19 pandemic. The authors pay much attention to the integration concept

especially the relations that are obtained between the central systems. This is the reason why

some of the useful concepts of the organization such as the ability to bear stress is indicated by

them; through them, health care system’s strength is described. These are very useful while

designing any future disasters and belong to the most valuable resilience indicators. These

examples indicate that to find out more profound countermeasures to resilience, one has to

discuss other potential threats.

Another example that Huggel et al. (2022) describe is a climatic threat and the

experiences of different geographical territories to manage the long-term climate change impact.

The research they have done shows the current climate adaptation practices are insufficient to

meet the challenge because, the current measures are unable to respond to the climate change

issues in the manner and to the extent necessary. Concerning the choice of the research method

that has been used in this particular case under consideration, it is possible to state the

significance of the anticipatory adaptation approach that take into consideration the climate

change induced long-term existential risk space. Crisis management implies a system that can

understand how several existential threats may occur and interconnect; and the policies that lead

to adaptability and resilience. All these cases provide the sort of information that such an

understanding must take into account and that is why crisis management requires it.

3.3 Design of the Research.

The quantitative and qualitative research methods are employed in this study to ensure

that enough details of existential dangers are accrued. As will be in such an account which

comprises of talks with the main subjects an analysis can be made of many aspects of the

research as maybe deemed pertinent after the results. Mostly qualitative literature reviews to

accomplish some task for and from the institution. These measurements aim at getting

information on the prevailing state that relates to crisis management and prevailing trends in the

market. It was theoretically posited by Puneet Kumar et al. (2021) that climate change is a social

construction. Social analysis, economic analysis, and environmental analysis are all aspects of

climate change (Puneet Kumar et al., 2021) It is useful for reducing existential risks and for

constructing, searching, and investigating the multitude of constituents associated with them and

their connections to the organization of a systematic stock of information about the nature of the

relationships (Puneet Kumar et al., 2021). In this qualitative research, policy, risk assessment,

and case analysis were used to identify impacts of the modifications on the existing frameworks.

In order to determine the effectiveness of these frameworks, some amount of review was

undertaken.

As part of this research quantitative data will be used especially those relating to risk,

exposure and the ability of a place or system to adapt or cope with change. In the study

conducted by Jovanović and other authors in 2020, the authors proposed that resilience indicators

should be used to measure the stability of the critical infrastructures. Consequently, the

quantitative analysis will employ data sets which have been gathered by the governments,

intergovernmental organizations as well as research institutions to determine the patterns, trends,

or dominant areas. Through the use of this two-faceted approach the study will be able to draw

on facts while at the same time considering overlays of existential risks as indicated by any good

qualitative work. The general intention of a mixed method of designing the study implies that at

the completion of the study there is always a triangulation which enhances the validity and

dependability of the results.

3.4 Techniques of data collection and their assessment

Both primary and secondary data will be gathered from different sources in order to

achieve the objective of data collection. The first hand data will be collected from the experts in

crisis management, climatology and public health to get more information about the

advancements that has taken place in the mentioned fields. Secondary data will therefore

comprise of analyses of articles that are academic and peer reviewed, reports from international

bodies and cases. According to Leta and Chan (2021), it is imperative to take lessons from

previous calamities in the preparation for the next one. By analyzing the kinds of problems that

are contained in the crisis management areas they do in the hotel industry, the kind of patterns

and strategies which can be used in other organizations, the kind of approaches which can be

applied to the successive disasters are made known. The information will help data collecting to

ensure that both, past and present problems and issues are taken into account.

Qualitative data assessment will involve the use of thematic coding, otherwise known as

pattern matching of qualitative data. As a result of this, quantitative data will be analyzed using

statistical techniques in other to make known risky variables and protective factors. In the work

that they have done, Huggel and colleagues (2022) stress that, to acquire a clearer picture of the

context into which risks that are linked with climate change directly relate – it is crucial to

employ more detailed approach to the analysis of the data provided. For this reason, this

approach should consider several various geographical perspectives and the future possible

scenarios. Will be useful in creating a higher understanding of the evolution of

interconnectedness in relation to global systems, and the findings from this research will be used

toward fine-tuning the Aspect of new forms of risk management and resilience. This study is

being done with the purpose of bringing out a very compound work that addresses the causes that

are deemed a threat as well as all the paths of amputation that may be taken by the politicians,

researchers and the practitioners.

4. Types of Existential Risks

4.1 Natural Disasters

Hurricanes on earthquakes and volcanic eruptions pose very severe threats on the human

existence and there is high possibility of causing large-scale destruction and shifting structures

on a global level. According to Huggel et al. (2022), these risks are compounded by climate

change since these globalization and industrialization create more and intense events such as

flooding. Their results assist in showing how the climatic related disasters like the floods and

wildfires are very much fatal to lives in the first place and are also corrosive of the physical

structures and frames, which are the genesis of the societarian structures of society in the latter.

These disasters, in their wake, evoke horrible food emergencies; much deeper shortages of

resources; forced relocations that generate new conflicts about place and power that in turn help

to worsen risks worldwide. Ebi et al. (2021) discussed how these challenges are linked and

showed that climate change will produce more threats to healthcare and social systems to act as a

multiplier for natural disasters.

The management of natural disasters is viewed as a system that addresses natural disaster

control and extreme natural events at the same time. Kumar, Nagar, and Anand (2022), in their

article that was published at the beginning of this year identify disaster risk management to

include climate adaption. They also suggest that highly developed built environment and forward

planning should be encouraged. For example, measures aimed at preserving some categories of

people, including children or intellectually disabled survivors, may be difficult to apply because

the ability to do so is restricted by political and, quite often, financial factors. This makes it very

hard to offer special protection for these communities. As pointed by Cremer and Kemp (2021),

the democracy of risk governance is also relevant with the objective of giving the local people

the right to participate in the decision making process of the whole process. Improved ways of

identifying effective and culturally viable measures for implementing disaster mitigation

measures may still be realized by societies through involving a wide group of stakeholders and

embracing traditional knowledge. The use of methods in incorporating the community based risk

assessment will have the potential of improving disaster response and hence minimizing the

various adverse impacts of natural disasters on population and environment.

4.2 Technological Risks

Some of the new threats are AI; autonomous weaponry; and use of biotechnology. They

make them subject to such intelligent mishaps of the technical system that such systems on

which they rely more and more are capable of, as well as likely to, produce catastrophic failure

or have unforeseen effects. Liu, Lauta and Maas (2020) investigate the possibility of the new

technologies generating more risks as they are interrelated. Liu, Lauta and Maas (2020) also raise

a concern that a failure in one system may lead to failure of other essential infrastructures. For

example, the novel technology of interest to us is artificial intelligence and related concerns such

as relinquishing control and abuse for instance the use of autonomous weapons in the warfare.

These dangers can therefore be used to support the argument that technology should be checked

and regulated through good governance and ethic in order to do so. This will ensure that

improvements in science and technology do not by some way threaten the security of the world.

The advancement in technology which is both rapid and global, there are no enough laws

that put in place measures that control technical risks in the long term. The authors Cremer and

Kemp (2021) opined that there should be more technological democracy given the fact that

everybody should have something to say about a project. These stakeholders should be ethicists,

scientists and the general population. This way, a number of approaches are presented and such

risks as a narrow view of technological progress typical of hormonally driven companies are

avoided. Similarly, Allowa and Chan (2021) explain the true story of how technical

malfunctioning has been hitherto used to highlight the importance of triage through redundancy

and good risk management practices. It also underlines that a number of lessons were learned in

the previous technological disasters. Ebi et al. (2021) say that while technical solutions also need

to be connected to more general existential risk management strategies like climate adaptation to

make sure that the enhancements in technology do not undermine the current resilience. The

challenges are having to be solved, in order to manage and integrate social systems with the

supports of technologies by the help of management.

4.3 Biological Risks

Biotic threats such as epidemics and biochemistry misuse are a severe menace to life and

has a widespread effect. The biological threats are capable of overstretching the capacities of the

healthcare organizations and result in social disruption on the international level and COVID-19

pandemic provided the evidence. Jovanović et al. (2020) focus on the role of resilience in the

healthcare organizations and they argue that since health care systems and many other systems of

equal importance are more interconnected, it increases the probability of various large scale

biological catastrophes. Jovanović et al. (2020) also indicates that the healthcare networks need

encouragement to be reliable in situations where the network can be scaled up quickly, but the

patients’ basic services still need to be provided. However, the technology that is synthetic

biology also has other implications, that are concerning as well. This is because any

advancement in education system in genetic engineering comes with new, possibly accidental or

intentional, way of introducing dangerous viruses and this has to rely on strict measures and

regulation.

There is the need for both global collaboration and anticipatory governance to develop

good strategies for the handling of bio risks. As stated by Ebi et al. (2021) authors, it is high time

that the society should have proper monitoring and surveillance system to identify the epidemics

at its early stage in order to minimize the total effects and avoid maximum destruction. COVID

19 has shown us the need to be prepared and Liu, Lauta, and Maas (2020) opine that what has

been learned should be turned into a culture change rather than a one off event. It entails granting

funds for researches, enhancing the system of the state health care, and promoting people’s unity

across the borders through information. In the same way that ethical consideration should be

made in the handling of the biological risks with regard to the welfare of all the populations,

there is the need to consider such factors as equitable access to diagnostic and therapeutic

measures. As Cremer and Kemp (2021) point out, these challenges can be effectively responded

to by democratizing risk governance since decision making procedures and policies assign value

to the inputs and exploitations of differential and consider the preferences of a pluralistic set of

stakeholders.

4.4 Societal and Political Risk

The concrete threats that are associated with existential risks originating in social and

political processes are geopolitical threats, migration, governance failures, and others which may

pose a threat to states and the international system. Where there is social vulnerability and other

external conditions like climate change or the economic crisis it is capable of worsening the

already fragile and precarious situation and results in the breakdown of the systematically

implemented social order. In their recent article, Ebi et al. (2021) describe climate change as a

threat multiplier that exacerbates the effects of other threats to those in the lower social strata and

puts pressure on governments and governance structures. Perhaps, the effects of these threats

could be seen in the form of serious social vices, the deterioration of democracy and the coming

on board of dictators. Kumar, Nagar, and Anand (2021) noted that these risks should be

contained by implementing proper measures of governance which should be supported by

countries of the world. This is due to the fact that these risks are linked and therefore can only be

tackled through measures that can help sustain the current state of stability.

Since managing social and political risks is a process that needs good governance that

cannot only support democracy and freedom but also be able to accommodate change, it has the

following; According to Cremer and Kemp (2021), there is need to put in place more

decentralized governance structures so that the people may feel empowered and when people are

in need of the government or when they need government’s intervention, they should be able to

depend on the government. If societies focus on this aspect of openness they are in a position to

reduce on the social divides and build a better society if people are given or encouraged to be

involved in matters concerning the society. In their work Leta and Chan (2021) stress that it is

possible to gain some insights from the negative experiences, which have occurred in the context

of crisis management. It is most specific of the good communication and coordination especially

in the event of large scale social unrest. Integrated approach of risk management within

comprehensive frameworks is expected to contribute to prevention of circumstances that can lead

to societal collapse and this is only possible if leadership and commitment to the discussion of

sustainable living is forthcoming. It also requires providing adequate means to strengthen the

International Organizations in order to avoid the war, and to find the condition in responding to

the threats such as Social and Political. This is done in order to guarantee that the global

governance is unambiguously responsible in the world that is gradually moving into the future

whose outcome cannot be predicted.

5. Impacts of Existential Risks

5.1 Economic Impacts

The existential risks have a great and extended impact on the global supply chain in the

economy, nation’s economy, and even employment. As put by Cremer and Kemp (2021), supply

chains are built in a system that emerges from interdependent economic structures and are rather

vulnerable to multiple failures that stem from disaster. That is, economic shocks that come with

disruption may be quickly and easily transferred from one industry to another and from one

country to another, for example, if a shock occurs as a result of a natural disaster or a global

pandemic. This was seen in the COVID-19 pandemic where Jovanović et al. (2020) highlighted

that failure of the health systems leads to reduced productivity, high costs of health care and

derailing of economic activities. The same way Huggel et al. (2022) indicates the economic

consequence where climate change impacts the GDP through the destruction of property and

assets through ultra-nature events exerting much pressure on the financial budget of countries.

The costs of loss mitigation are very high and this implies that increased spending on the

resilience and disaster risk management could be profitable in the long run.

Also, existential threats are not constrained by or financial impacts of growth and

inequality in the international system. In the study by Kumar, Nagar, and Anand (2021) threat

perceptions such as climate change and other threats of existence often have an impact on

sensitive groups, therefore worsening economic inequalities in countries and groups. This is

especially so with the developing countries which are not in a position to effect a quick economic

turnaround since it takes ages for the economy to stabilize and the citizens remain poor. Ebi et

al., 2021, also link economic preparedness with governance and infrastructure because it points

to the fact that societies that have well developed readiness will be able to leverage it in order to

respond to shocks in the economy. Existential threats are a threat to economic growth and

recovery and the financing of sustainable infrastructure, disaster risk reduction and health

systems are critical to the avoidance of worst case economic outcomes. As it has been observed

from the literature, economic risk assessment constitutes an essential part of the holistic area of

resilience management that would help avoid future shocks to the national as well as the

international economy.

5.2 Social Impacts

There are also existence risks which have social consequences for societies and their

stability, and consequences for people’s wellbeing. The existential risks are seen by Cremer and

Kemp (2021) as interlinking function effects on the society and this enhances social injustice on

susceptible individuals. COVID-19 is one such example that Jovanović et al. (2020) explained,

stressing on how the healthcare systems and other working examples of how individuals from

different SES Status had differential access to healthcare. It also provided evidence that

employment and educational disparities exist, and the minority population has a higher level of

unemployment and limited access to internet classes or electronic materials. Social consequence

of Global warming include the effects of disasters caused by climate change in that they result to

discontinuation of social relation through resettlement of people and detrimental effects on their

psychological health. According to Ebi et al. (2021), the reduction of those social impacts should

be guided by a sufficiently sophisticated approach that offers a solution to the emerging needs on

one hand and strengthens the resilience of structural vulnerability on the other hand.

Societal capital and trust are elements of societal resilience and therefore threatened by threats to

existence. As pointed by Kumar, Nagar, and Anand (2021) crisis such as climate change or the

current pandemic lead to societal division and erode the credibility of institutions when managed

in a wrong way. Aspects such as corruption, and management of the crisis worsen social

relations and exacerbate political divide thus society cannot recover or grow. In addition, Leta

and Chan (2021) continue to state that it is elementary to identify the success factors of previous

crises to create more effective governance for the future. There is another way of looking at the

role for communities in decision making and equitable distribution of resources for social justice

in society. This literature review shows that to address social impacts of existential risks, there is

a need to develop social capital in areas such as education, health and equity.

5.3 Environmental Impacts

Existential risks are by their nature unhelpful, pressing and detrimental in their impact

upon the environment that supports human existence. According to Huggel et al. (2022), there is

an existential risk mapping from climate change where environmental degradation leads to

ecosystem and biodiverse organisms’ loss. This is climate change which has led to increase in

temperature, sea water level and extreme weather conditions, which in turn affects habitat and

species, and leads to extinction and destabilization of ecosystem. This means that the feedback

mechanisms that stem from climate destruction can be intensified, and there by making the rates

of climate change even worse. Kumar, Nagar, & Anand, (2021) in their assessment of the effects

of inaction posit that the impacts of environment should not only be assessed in terms of the loss

of ecosystems but also human beings through loss of Map COS available services such as clean

water, air and ability of ecosystems to produce food. These impacts require a global policy to

protect environment and enforce measures to control emission and conserve ecosystems.

The environmental degradation conflict with the other existential risks. Ebi et al, (2021)

has observed that as climate change escalates the effects of other disasters, other than the health

sector, pandemics for instance, may worsen disease transmission or hinder access to necessities.

Therefore, the absence of the measures and the identified risks combination indicates the need of

the integrated measures, which can be based on crisis management for the environmental, social,

and economic risks. According to Cremer and Kemp (2021), the decentralized approach should

be encouraged in environmental disputes because those who live in the area have useful

knowledge on how to manage and harness natural assets. The existing literature shows that

environmental resilience can be considered as the subspecies of existential threats and there is a

possibility that the ecosystems’ functionality may defend against climate change in the future.

6. Current Emergency Management Practices

6.1 Global Initiatives

The ways of tackling existential risks are the most effective on a global scale because no

one state can handle climate change, the spread of infectious diseases, or technological threats

alone. As these threats has continued to appear, international efforts to mobilize and share

resources in order to combat them has also increased. UNFCCC and Paris Agreement are very

important international global initiatives associated with cutting down emission of GHG

particularly in an effort to contain climate change impacts. As noted by Kumar, Nagar, and

Anand (2021), international climate agreements are relevant for establishing goals and,

particularly, for the development of the frameworks for their achievement. The striking effective

results is still a contentious issue owing to the conflict of interest of various states, the

differences in the level of economic development, and the political rivalry which hinders

collaboration. The current trends in the process of formation of standards for international

activities are to focus on such threats of climate change as existential ones.

Another current global lead initiative is the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction which is an instrument that defines a set of actions to be taken to achieve a society

with a culture of safety and resilience to disasters for various levels of development. Chisty et al.

(2022) assesses the effectiveness of the proposed framework and also appreciate the significance

of the proposed approach that include risk assessment, early warning systems and preparations

on the possible worst case scenarios. The work also tries to respond to the Sendai Framework

that requires the engaging of the national and sub-national governments, other nations as well as

international organizations in building the desired resilience in the world. Despite this the

framework has thus in one way the other contributed in the promotion of disaster risk reduction;

however, there are challenges that exist in the financing aspect and the implementation of

policies and strategies in the developing countries. As pointed out by Ebi et al. (2021), there are

four critical dimensions that must ground transformation for any global initiatives; first, equity

and justice for the excluded populations, second, first priority to the most affected and

overloaded parts of the world. The integration of the disaster risk reduction frameworks with the

climate change adaptation frameworks depicts an important factor in the international risk

management system.

In trying to address the issue of biological threats including the occurrence of pandemics,

efforts have been made to put in place international organizations such as the World Health

Organization (WHO) not-withstanding the recently developed Global Health Security Agenda.

Jovanović et al. (2020) highlight the importance of international cooperation for the preparedness

of health systems and, consequently, countries to tackle new infectious diseases. The COVID-19

has shown that the world needs new international organizations that will allow for the sharing of

information and resources and medical technologies. Even though this is the case, there have

been such enhancements, yet vices like COVID-19 vaccine inequity and unequal healthcare have

exposed other hitherto unknown inequalities in the world. The organizations like COVAX have

been formed to provide vaccines to the LMIC to minimize these inequities but because of some

administrative and political issues the vaccines are not able to reach the targeted group.

According to Cremer and Kemp (2021), it is crucial in the present world to extend the

democratic nature of the global health governance and its attractiveness in order to involve as

many people as possible in the decision-making process in regard to existential biological

threats.

6.2 Regional Approaches

The regional concepts are significant since they make it possible for stochastic strategies

depending on the characteristics of the region in geography, culture, and economy to be used. A

number of regional organizations, including the European Union (EU), have developed elaborate

policies to combat climate change, as well as disaster risk reduction. In another part, Huggel et

al. (2022) have focused on the analysis of how the EU has financed climate adaptation measures

such as enhancing infrastructure, and developing a sustainable energy infrastructure. Due to the

sustainable climate goals and the annual spending for research, and innovations, the EU is at the

forefront of regional climate change policies. The challenges persist on the basis of regional

disparities within the member states where some regions can achieve climate goals and targets

because they are rich while others cannot. The EU approach underlines that although the certain

degree of regional integration is required for effective climate policy, the rigidness of policy

implementation should not be overestimated.

Cooperation at the sub-regional level is necessary in Asia because of the high risk of

natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons as well as bio-terrorism. ASEAN is the

organization of South East Asia countries that has tried to build the regional frameworks for

disaster management through learning and practice of mock disasters. According to Chisty et al.

(2022), ASEAN has played a role in the disaster management responses and networking through

the process of promoting resilience. But the problem of the cooperation of resources and the

development disparity among the member countries is present in the region. The need for all

countries to participate effectively in regional activities requires that the developed countries

provide specific capital and funds. It is also suggested that these various regional elevations in

disaster management be brought into conformity with other international calls for frameworks

such as the Sendai Framework in order to improve the effectiveness of risk reduction in Asia.

In North America, cooperation towards climate and health security has mainly been

between the United States of America, Canada and Mexico. These cross border cooperation

concerns include for example combating of wildfires, disasters, and diseases. Ebi et al. (2021)

employed words that captured the essence of intergovernmental cooperation to mitigate

environmental and biological risks because these risks are transnational. The North American

Commission for Environmental Cooperation acts as the executive secretariat and therefore

assists the countries in identifying and managing the transboundary risks, and public health

cooperation may be the most significant and has been vital in preventing the spread of diseases.

However, political and economic competition limits such operation and does not promote

cooperation between these three countries. Leta and Chan (2021) argue that regional approaches,

which are the focus here, need strong governance frameworks and reciprocity because collective

action is critical for managing risks that threaten existence.

7. Challenges in Addressing Existential Risks

7.1 Editorial Interdisciplinary

As existential threats are associated with different fields such as climatology, medicine,

informatics, and politics, it is necessary that many participants are representatives of different

fields of knowledge. According to Cremer and Kemp (2021), the constituent voices are always

chosen from a range of specialists and that the organization of these voices is a macro-

coordination with a view towards the environment to which they are to be applied. Thus, it is

quite possible to assume that communities, organizations, and governments can address the

various categories of scientists, policymakers, economists, sociologists, and other specialists in

order to enhance the prediction and prevention of the various crises as well as to timely interfere

with them. In the article of Ebi et al., (2021), the author is of the opinion that climate change

should be linked with public health in terms of research since it affects the natural environment

and humans. In the present year 2021 he has also published a paper. Besides the information

sharing process, interdisciplinary cooperation involves the development of the platforms and

structures that may be frequently changed. On the other hand, manipulation of set structural and

conceptual paradigms of academic and institutional perspectives brings some specific concerns,

which seem to prevent the use of systemic approach in risk management. Since these obstacles

are an issue in the implementation of the solutions across the disciplines, it is reasonable to

presume that when overcoming the mentioned obstacles and improving collaboration between

the disciplines it is possible to come across more effective subsequent solutions to neutralize

existential threats.

7.2 Resource Allocation

One of the most important questions when discussing existential threats is the question of

how resources are to be divided. This is so because resources are limited and have to be utilized

in the most appropriate way so as to produce the most possible impact on the process of strength

building. Furthermore, Jovanović et al. (2020) have found out that the society under study has to

be ready for the disasters by raising the budgets allocated to the health care, disaster aid, and

climate change mitigation. In the COVID-19 situation, people of the world got the worst

example of resource misallocation, especially in medical and logistics industries. Kumar, Nagar,

and Anand have explained that where choices have to be made when and how to allocate

resources each of the afore-listed factors of decision-making must be regarded absolute. Chances

of risks have to be assessed and total exposure of the population and fair issues have to be

estimated. The activities that are carried out by the writers of Chisty et al. (2022) are those that

assert that the distribution of the resources should occur through the impact assessment that

should be based on the research and which should occur with the participation of the government

and international organizations with the local communities. The disadvantages of long term

vulnerability include locking whereby one is assured of making present investments with a view

of achieving a situation which will reduce vulnerability in the future. In order to reduce

existential risks locking in is required.

8. Evaluation Frameworks

8.1 Risk Assessment Tools

Since it would be impossible to approach such existential concerns without systematic

tools for assessing threats and risks, the specific basic tools of risk assessment properly form the

basis of existential threat management. The article by Ebi et al., (2021) present an idea of

expanding the current risk assessment frameworks that address various and complex threats and

how their likelihood and impacts interrelate such as climate and pandemics. It is quite common

to apply the wide range of data including the environmental factors, socioeconomic features, and

the longevity of the infrastructure to depict the consequences. In their recent work, Cremer &

Kemp (2021) recommend one of the future directions that can contribute to the improvement of

risk management practice; that is, to democratize risk assessment and make the tools available to

a wider audience and with clearer explanation. Most of these tools have become more accurate

and the prognostic powers have been enhanced especially by the use of artificial intelligence

together with big data analysis; there has been concern with regards to the reliability of these

assessment tools especially when it comes to updates of the previous data and other events that

may point to possible threats. Risk management is not a one-off activity, it requires ongoing

effort and cooperation and regular updating because the world is evolving.

8.2 Scenario Planning

Strategic scenario development or the process of developing a comprehensive approach

to readying an organization for the future to prevent the worst from happening. Due to this

approach, decision makers and organizations can decide the manner in which the different

factors, for instance, technology, the environment and so on, should emerge and how in turn they

are likely to impact the society. In the article Liu, Lauta & Maas (2020) the authors state that

scenarios are useful in enhancing governance relations and resource allocation; scenario planning

is a technique that may be used to improve the impact of managing decision making processes

within organizations. This is where through a number of crises and possibilities it is possible to

identify the key issues, to evaluate the potential of the current systems, and to define which

changes are needed. As pointed out by Huggel et al., 2022 there is a need to engage in scenarios

planning with especial attention to climate change since this help in planning amid climate

change disasters. While helpful, scenario planning requires a significant amount of data, skills,

and coordination across many different sectors of society; its implementation is based on the

capacity of the stakeholders to act beforehand based on the lessons learnt throughout the process.

9. Policy Recommendations

9.1 International Cooperation

It is quite comprehensible that such threats as a climate change, epidemics and

pandemics, and threats related to the new technologies and artificial intelligence cannot be

eliminated without the international cooperation. As stated by Kumar, Nagar, and Anand (2021),

the current threats threaten the world since no state can have the population, financial or other

resources to deal with these threats alone. The Paris Agreement and global health initiatives of

the WHO show that there is a need for framework based approaches which define how

information can be shared, how resources can be shared and how common action can be

undertaken. As pointed out by Cremer and Kemp (2021) states cooperation can also include

independent organizations as well as the private sector and other non-state actors from civil

society which make cooperation more inclusive. However, political and in the first turn,

economic opposition does not always presuppose cooperation, and the lack of confidence can

become a hindrance to interaction. So as in the partnership with the international community,

diplomacy, and accountability for the development of strong societies and states, should be

shown.

9.2 Legislative Reforms

There is need for the laws to expand in order to enhance the governance structures that

govern the management of threats to the existence with an outlook of having good, strong and

effective policies. Jovanović et al. (2020) indicate that there are laws that prescribe and/or

promote the provisions of measures on disaster risk reduction, health systems and climate change

with a view to minimizing loss from disasters. There are instances where a country has

provisions that cannot capture the interdependencies in global risks and at other times a country

has other outdated laws that may hinder the management and mitigation of risks. Cremer and

Kemp (2021) posit that there is a requirement to build an explicit legislative program that

embraces scientific understanding, public participation, and transdisciplinary collaboration.

There are also other areas that should be given attention in reform agenda which include closure

of governance deficits, good accountability and good system of crisis management. Ebi et al.,

(2021) urge the development of policy frameworks that can be used in the integration of equity

in laws that govern vulnerable populations and resources distribution. Hence, reforms of

legislation proceeding from law science should be conducted with regard to the results of the

given study, the expected problems, and, at the same time, be rather adaptable to new

circumstances during further activity.

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