Questions

Rolling out the campaign 1. Fundraising 2. Find your target market 3. Develop Message

◦ Candidate attributes ◦ Critique of opposition/Negative advertising

4. Communication ◦ Paid media (advertising) ◦ Media relations (earned media) ◦ Interpersonal

5. Development of organization ◦ Pre-existing organization in traditional marketing campaigns

6. GOTV (Go to vote initiatives)

Media component

Candidates spend millions of dollars on advertising but does it matter?

Type of media “Paid” Media or Advertising ◦ Ads on Tv ◦ Ads on social media ◦ Billboard ads

“Earned” Media or Public relations • Media relations

• Journalists write articles about you • Social media outreach

Some states matter more than others: primary

•Which are the states that decide a Presidential primary election? •Primaries

• Early primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina • Early primary states REDUCE the number of candidates to afew • Super Tuesday: big day in March where many states have a primary

Some states matter more than others: general election swing states

•General election • Historic big battleground: Florida and Ohio • Smaller battlegrounds: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa • The former “blue wall”: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania • Southern swing states: Virginia and North Carolina • The swing states of the future: Arizona, Georgia and (maybe?) Minnesota and Texas

Money raised by candidates and parties

TV spending for candidates by the summer of 2016

TV Advertising spending by the end of 2016 campaign

Advertising spending by state

What are pros and cons of advertising? Pros ◦ With TV ads, you can reach a big number of people quickly ◦ Effective way of boosting name recognition ◦ Ads affect attitudes of undecided voters, (but effects are short lived) ◦ Negative ads can mobilize partisan voters

Cons ◦ Very expensive ◦ People have no span of attention ◦ Too many ads: if there isn’t a clear message, they don’t work ◦ Negative ads can turn off independents and moderates

Media coverage of the candidatesand “earned media”

Trump was everywhere

Hillary “won”the debates but did it matter?

•According to news media and experts Hillary Clinton Performed better during the debates

•Debates are a moment where citizens can see candidates unfiltered

•Mass media paid a lot of attention to Trump even during the debates

•Social media conversation was dominated by Trump

Pros and cons of “earned media coverage”

Pros • Cheap/free • You can become a “topic” of conversation online and offline • (If you have a good communication team) it can be very effective • You have someone else (journalists) talking about some of the positive aspects of your campaign

Negative • No direct control over message • Journalists can decide whatever they want • In a crisis/scandal, it can become a nightmare • (If you DONT have a good communication team) it can be very ineffective

Social media Use during 2016

Trump and Twitter

Why was Trump’s twitter use so effective?

•Direct communication with voters •Understand what its voters like •”Tell it like it is”style •Tweets talked about on mainstream news •Tweets become “the news”

Campaigns are not just about media:the interpersonal factor

•Rallies •Town halls

•Individual meeting with voters

•Meeting at companies/factors

Campaign organization •Traditional campaigns have a very organized structure

•Well organized campaigns tend to be more successful

•Campaign manager is the leader of the campaign

•Various departments • Communication, Strategy, Data analysis & Research, GOTV

•The Trump campaign defies this logic

GOTV and ground game •EXTREMELY important to mobilize the base •Remind people to go and vote

• Information about voting options • Text, Email, Calls, Door to Door • Events to register people to vote • Last minute event to convince people to go vote ( often with celebrities)

• With the coronavirus crisis, everything has moved online

How is 2020 shaping up?

• Donald Trump is behind in the polls (by about 9-10 points according to 538)

• Message of Biden’s campaign: “restore the soul of America”

• Shifting Message of the Trump’s campaign: “keep America great”, “law and order”, and others

• Campaign strongly influenced by protests against police brutality and systemic racism and coronavirus crisis

How is the covid-19 crisis changing campaigning? • More online contacts • Advertising become crucial again • Fight for the right of voting by mail • Trump’s campaign still plans to have convention

speeches in a packed arena and have rallies • Joe Biden has adopted a “bunker” strategy and he’s

primarily campaigning online

Presidential campaign messages

Joe Biden • Campaign message: Restore the soul of America

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFUgU1v-XiI

• Covid 19 crisis: attacking the president’s mistakes • https://www.instagram.com/p/CCMZbwSlRIE/

Donald J Trump • Campaign message: Keep America great

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXTA36HO65g • Covid 19 crisis: America’s comeback

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws66liLKGzA