Quantitative and Qualitative Decision Making

AD715_Business-Simulation_v401.xlsm

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		SEMESTER:	Fall 2019
		PROJECT TITLE:
		PROJECT LOCATION:
		STUDENT NAME:
		ADVISOR:	Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
		DATE OF SUBMISSION:	Wednesday, October 23, 2019

&8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making &8&K002060Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8&K002060Copyright 2012 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

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Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations

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	SEMESTER:	Fall 2019
	PROJECT TITLE:
	LOCATION:
	STUDENT NAME:
	ADVISOR:	Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
	DATE OF SUBMISSION:	10/23/19
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&"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9 Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9Coppyright 2012 - 2014 By Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

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© 2012 -2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev, All rights reserved. This program simulation package is designed to illustrate different managerial decision making concepts and to offer hands-on experience to the students who are taking the graduate course AD 715 Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making at Boston University, Metropolitan College. The program simulation package is property of and is provided by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev. Permission to use, copy and distribute this simulation without fee is hereby granted, provided that the above copyright notice appear in all copies and that both the copyright and this notice appear in supporting documentation, and that the name Dr. Vladimir Zlatev not be used in advertising or publicity pertaining to distribution of this documentation without specific, written permission..

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Help Menu

A. Navigation within the business simulation

E. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'

H. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'

test

I. Page 'Inn-Mgt'

F. Page 'Performance'

B. Introduction to the business simulation

J. Page 'Oper-Mgt'

Tutorial to the Business Simulation 'Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations'

G. Page 'D-Analysis'

C. Page 'Project-ID'

K. Page 'Fin-Mgt'

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L. Page 'Org-Mgt'

D. Page 'Project-Start'

A. Navigation within the business simulation

Simulation software: installation requirements

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Tab ‘Sim-Navigator’

Task List

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10.

Indicator: Current Cycle

11.

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D. Page 'Project-Start'

Critical Success Factors (CSF)

Key Performance Indicators (KPI)

E. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'

Sales Projection

Prices and Variable Costs per product

Annual fixed costs

12 month Proforma

Financial summary: per FY and overall

F. Page 'Performance'

Key Success Indicators

Key Performance Indicators

Efficiency Ratios

Trend Analysis

G. Page 'D-Analysis'

Break-Even Analysis

What-if Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

*LINK TO TUTORIAL HERE*

Optimization Analysis

*LINK TO TUTORIAL HERE*

Risk Analysis

H. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'

Marketing Costs

Product Description

Targeted Market Size

Sales Projections

I. Page 'Inn-Mgt'

Product Name & Description

J. Page 'Oper-Mgt'

Forecast for the nest three years

Targeted Market Size

Sales Projection

K. Page 'Fin-Mgt'

Miscellaneous Factors

Debt

L. Page 'Org-Mgt'

Employess

Employee Compensation

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current cycle

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Current Decision Cycle

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A. Navigation within the business simulation B. Introduction to the business simulation C. Page 'Project-ID' D. Page 'Project-Start' E. Page 'Mktg-Mgt' F. Page 'Inn-Mgt' G. Page 'Oper-Mgt' H. Page 'Fin-Mgt' I. Page 'Org-Mgt' J. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr' K. Page 'Performance' L. Page 'D-Analysis' M. Page 'Impl-Plan' N. Page 'Sim-Report' O. Page 'Printout Reports'

Project-Start


1	OVERALL BUSINESS PARAMETERS OF THE PROJECT (BUSINESS UNIT: next 36 Months of Operations)
1.1	Critical Success Factors
						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
CSF 1:	Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %)				[%]		58.49%	62.26%	67.93%	62.89%
CSF 2:	Retention of critical technology personnel				[number]		1	1	1
CSF 3:	Retention of critical marketing personnel				[number]		1	1	2
1.2	Key Performance Indicators
						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
KPI 1:	Actual size of the local market				[units]	15,000,000	103.00%	106.00%	110.00%
KPI 2:	Number of customers- existing business				[customers]	82,500
KPI 3:	Average consumption per existing customer				[units]	1.50
KPI 4:	Size of the penetrated market - without new project				[%]		105.00%	110.00%	115.00%
	*				[units]	123,750	129,938	136,125	142,313	408,375
KPI 5:	Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project				[%]					220%
KPI 6:	Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market				[%]		31.00%	33.00%	36.00%	100.00%
	Projected sales, new brand				[units]		278,512	296,480	323,433	898,425
KPI 7:	Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only				[%]		31.0%	31.5%	32.0%	31.53%
	**				[units]		86,339	93,391	103,499	283,228
	Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)				[%]		66%	69%	73%
	Wholesale distribution (new brand)				[%]		69.00%	68.50%	68.00%	68.48%
	***				[units]		192,173	203,089	219,934	615,197
KPI 8:	Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)				[units]	476,160	476,160	476,160	476,160
2	FIXED-COST
2.0	Initial Investment
	Equipment		$ 150,000
	Total		$ 150,000
2.1	Employees
					Salary increase
	Position		Budget	Number	FY-2	FY-3
	Office Assistants		$ 25,000	1	1.11	1.2
	Salesmen		$ 67,500	1.5	1.11	1.2
	Executive Salaries		$ 32,500	0.5	1.11	1.2
	Miscellaneous (Consultants)		$ 5,000		1.11	1.2
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total		$130,000	$144,300	$173,160
2.2	Range of compensations for critical workers
	Position	Importance	Min	Base	Market Research	Max
	Salesmen	Critical	$26,000	$30,000	$28,000	$32,000
	Salesmen		$23,000	$24,000	$25,000	$27,000
	Worker	Critical	$25,000	$30,000	$29,000	$32,000
	Worker		$15,000	$20,000	$20,000	$22,000
2.3	Utilities, Supplies and others
			Payment	Payment increase
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Leasing of cars, computers, etc		$ 8,000	1.11	1.2
	Office Supply		$ 4,000	1.11	1.2
	Heat, Light, Phone		$ 7,000	1.11	1.2
	Insurance		$ 7,000	1.11	1.2
	Depreciation		$ 7,500	1.9	0.9
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total		$33,500	$43,110	$47,457
2.4	Marketing costs
			Payment	Payment increase
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Local Advertising		$ 35,000	1.11	1.2
	Trade Shows		$ 3,000	1.11	1.2
	Total		$38,000	$42,180	$50,616
2.5	Rent
					Payment increase
			Payment	Space (ft^2)	FY-2	FY-3
	Office		$ 5,000	200	1.11	1.2
	Warehouse
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total		$5,000	$5,550	$6,660
2.6	Debt
	Loan		Amount	Interest rate	length (months)	payments/year	Date start
	Bank of America		$40,000	10.0%	36	12	FY-1 Jan
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	Total Debt
	Total		$15,391	$15,391	$15,391	$40,000
2.7	Depreciation		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	MACRS (15 yr schedule)		5.00%	9.50%	8.55%
	Tax Shelter		$2,625	$4,987.50	$4,488.75
2.8	Financial Market Indicators			Percentage
	Expected Return on Investment			5.0%
	Risk-Free Interest rate			1.0%
3	TAXES & FEES
3.1	Taxes
	Taxes type		Percentage
	Profit		35.00%
3.2	Fees
	Type		Ammount
	license to sell alcohol
	Total
4	PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
4.1.	Product Name & Description
				Variable Costs
				Material	Labor	Others	Price	Units	Cut off point	Weight	Weight (full)	Height	Diameter
	Product ID	Distribution	Name	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(Pints)		(lb)	(lb)	(inches)	(inches)
	BR01-01	[retail]	Pilsner	0.56	0.30	0.30	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05	1.3	0	0			NOTES:
	BR01-02	[retail]	Bavarian Lager	0.50	0.30	0.30	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05	1.3	0	0		(i)	one pint = 16 oz = 473.1765 ml
	BR01-03	[retail]	Light Wheat	0.50	0.30	0.30	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	1.3	0	0		(ii)	one keg = 124 pints
	BR01-04	[retail]	Red Wheat	0.50	0.30	0.30	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	1.3	0	0		(iii)	one barrel = 31 gallons
	BR01-05	[retail]	Pale Ale	0.50	0.30	0.30	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	1.3	0	0
	BR01-06	[retail]	Bock Dark	0.50	0.30	0.30	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	1.3	0	0
	BR01-07	[wholesale]	Pilsner	0.56	0.24	0.26	$1.25	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-08	[wholesale]	Bavarian Lager	0.56	0.24	0.26	$1.28	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23.3	16
	BR01-09	[retail]	Special Offer	0.52	0.29	0.29	$1.25	1	1	1.05	1.3	0	0
															(iv)	half barrel = one keg = 15.5 gallons
5	TARGETED MARKET SIZE (PER PRODUCTS AND FYs)
				FY-1				FY-2				FY-3
		Retail	100%	86,339			100%	93,391			100%	103,499
		Wholesale			100%	192,173			100%	203,089			100%	219,934
	Product ID	Distribution
	BR01-01	[retail]	23%	19,857.89			24%	22,413.91			23%	23,804.67
	BR01-02	[retail]	25%	21,584.66			23%	21,479.99			22%	22,769.68
	BR01-03	[retail]	14%	12,087.41			14%	13,074.78			15%	15,524.78
	BR01-04	[retail]	12%	10,360.64			13%	12,140.87			13%	13,454.81
	BR01-05	[retail]	12%	10,360.64			13%	12,140.87			13%	13,454.81
	BR01-06	[retail]	14%	12,087.41			13%	12,140.87			14%	14,489.80
	BR01-07	[wholesale]			45%	86,477.90			48%	97,482.71			50%	109,967.22
	BR01-08	[wholesale]			55%	105,695.21			52%	105,606.27			50%	109,967.22
	BR01-09	[retail]	0%	0			0%	0			0%	0
6	SALES PROJECTIONS (BUSINESS UNIT: next 36 Months of Operations)
	Keg	[units]	124	Cutoff Point	80%
	Year/Month		BR01-01	BR01-02	BR01-03	BR01-04	BR01-05	BR01-06	BR01-07	BR01-08	BR01-09
			[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	FY-1		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	6.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	99.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,390	1,295	604	518	518	604	4,324	5,285	0
	Feb		1,390	1,295	604	518	518	604	4,324	5,285	0
	Mar		1,390	1,295	725	622	622	725	5,189	6,342	0
	Apr		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	7,399	0
	May		1,589	1,727	967	829	829	967	6,918	8,456	0
	Jun		1,986	2,158	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,648	10,570	0
	Jul		1,986	2,158	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,648	10,570	0
	Aug		1,986	2,374	1,450	1,243	1,243	1,450	10,377	12,683	0
	Sep		1,986	2,374	1,450	1,243	1,243	1,450	10,377	12,683	0
	Oct		1,986	2,374	1,330	1,140	1,140	1,330	9,513	11,626	0
	Nov		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	7,399	0
	Dec		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	6,342	0
	Tot		19,858	21,585	12,087	10,361	10,361	12,087	86,478	105,695	0
	[kegs]								70	85
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.0	0.0
	Feb	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.0	0.0
	Mar	11.0	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	5.0	0.0
	Apr	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	May	15.0	1.3	1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.6	0.0
	Jun	22.0	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.5	8.3	0.0
	Jul	22.0	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.5	8.3	0.0
	Aug	26.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.4	10.1	0.0
	Sep	26.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.4	10.1	0.0
	Oct	24.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.4	9.1	0.0
	Nov	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	Dec	12.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	4.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	19,858	21,585	12,087	10,361	10,361	12,087	86,478	105,695	- 0
Total Supply		[units]	19,128	20,972	6,200	6,200	6,200	6,200	83,792	101,788	0
Excess Demand		[units]	730	613	5,887	4,161	4,161	5,887	2,686	3,907	0
	FY-2		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,569	1,289	654	607	607	607	4,874	5,280	0
	Feb		1,569	1,289	654	607	607	607	4,874	5,280	0
	Mar		1,569	1,289	784	728	728	728	5,849	6,336	0
	Apr		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	May		1,793	1,718	1,046	971	971	971	7,799	8,449	0
	Jun		2,241	2,148	1,307	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,748	10,561	0
	Jul		2,241	2,148	1,307	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,748	10,561	0
	Aug		2,241	2,363	1,569	1,457	1,457	1,457	11,698	12,673	0
	Sep		2,241	2,363	1,569	1,457	1,457	1,457	11,698	12,673	0
	Oct		2,241	2,363	1,438	1,335	1,335	1,335	10,723	11,617	0
	Nov		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	Dec		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	Tot		22,414	21,480	13,075	12,141	12,141	12,141	97,483	105,606	0
	[kegs]								79	85
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Feb	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Mar	12.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.7	5.0	0.0
	Apr	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	May	16.0	1.3	1.4	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.6	0.0
	Jun	23.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.3	8.3	0.0
	Jul	23.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.3	8.3	0.0
	Aug	27.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	10.1	0.0
	Sep	27.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	10.1	0.0
	Oct	25.0	1.7	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.3	9.1	0.0
	Nov	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	Dec	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	22,414	21,480	13,075	12,141	12,141	12,141	97,483	105,606	- 0
Total Supply		[units]	21,091	20,942	7,440	6,200	6,200	6,200	91,749	103,058	0
Excess Demand		[units]	1,323	538	5,635	5,941	5,941	5,941	5,734	2,548	0
	FY-3		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,666	1,366	776	673	673	724	5,498	5,498	0
	Feb		1,666	1,366	776	673	673	724	5,498	5,498	0
	Mar		1,666	1,366	931	807	807	869	6,598	6,598	0
	Apr		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	May		1,904	1,822	1,242	1,076	1,076	1,159	8,797	8,797	0
	Jun		2,380	2,277	1,552	1,345	1,345	1,449	10,997	10,997	0
	Jul		2,380	2,277	1,552	1,345	1,345	1,449	10,997	10,997	0
	Aug		2,380	2,505	1,863	1,615	1,615	1,739	13,196	13,196	0
	Sep		2,380	2,505	1,863	1,615	1,615	1,739	13,196	13,196	0
	Oct		2,380	2,505	1,708	1,480	1,480	1,594	12,096	12,096	0
	Nov		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	Dec		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	Tot		23,805	22,770	15,525	13,455	13,455	14,490	109,967	109,967	0
	[kegs]								89	89
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Feb	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Mar	12.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.8	5.0	0.0
	Apr	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
	May	20.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.6	6.6	0.0
	Jun	24.0	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.2	8.3	0.0
	Jul	24.0	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.2	8.3	0.0
	Aug	28.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	10.2	10.1	0.0
	Sep	28.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	10.2	10.1	0.0
	Oct	26.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	9.1	0.0
	Nov	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
	Dec	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	23,805	22,770	15,525	13,455	13,455	14,490	109,967	109,967	- 0
Total Supply		[units]	21,987	21,254	11,160	7,440	7,440	11,160	102,013	102,746	0
Excess Demand		[units]	1,818	1,516	4,365	6,015	6,015	3,330	7,954	7,221	0
			BR01-01	BR01-02	BR01-03	BR01-04	BR01-05	BR01-06	BR01-07	BR01-08	BR01-09
			[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	FY-1	Jan	1,207	1,220	0	0	0	0	3,753	4,980	0
	FY-1	Feb	1,207	1,220	0	0	0	0	3,753	4,980	470
	FY-1	Mar	1,310	1,262	0	0	0	0	4,890	6,178	0
	FY-1	Apr	1,389	1,472	0	0	0	0	6,051	7,208	0
	FY-1	May	1,589	1,682	0	0	0	0	6,918	8,238	173
	FY-1	Jun	1,853	2,103	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,067	10,297	470
	FY-1	Jul	1,853	2,103	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,067	10,297	470
	FY-1	Aug	1,986	2,346	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,377	12,534	37
	FY-1	Sep	1,986	2,346	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,377	12,534	37
	FY-1	Oct	1,927	2,313	1,240	1,140	1,140	1,240	9,233	11,327	201
	FY-1	Nov	1,389	1,472	0	0	0	0	6,051	7,208	0
	FY-1	Dec	1,389	1,432	0	0	0	0	6,051	6,008	0
	FY-2	Jan	1,510	1,216	0	0	0	0	4,690	4,984	0
	FY-2	Feb	1,510	1,216	0	0	0	0	4,690	4,984	0
	FY-2	Mar	1,569	1,258	0	0	0	0	5,849	6,182	22
	FY-2	Apr	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-2	May	1,623	1,677	1,046	0	0	0	7,057	8,243	194
	FY-2	Jun	2,086	2,096	1,240	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,074	10,304	78
	FY-2	Jul	2,086	2,096	1,240	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,074	10,304	78
	FY-2	Aug	2,193	2,338	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,447	12,542	0
	FY-2	Sep	2,193	2,338	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,447	12,542	0
	FY-2	Oct	2,144	2,305	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,256	11,335	0
	FY-2	Nov	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-2	Dec	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-3	Jan	1,442	1,234	0	0	0	0	4,758	4,966	0
	FY-3	Feb	1,442	1,234	0	0	0	0	4,758	4,966	0
	FY-3	Mar	1,500	1,276	0	0	0	0	5,940	6,164	0
	FY-3	Apr	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
	FY-3	May	1,765	1,702	1,240	1,076	1,076	1,159	8,155	8,218	408
	FY-3	Jun	2,207	2,127	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,193	10,273	0
	FY-3	Jul	2,207	2,127	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,193	10,273	0
	FY-3	Aug	2,274	2,374	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	12,606	12,506	0
	FY-3	Sep	2,274	2,374	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	12,606	12,506	0
	FY-3	Oct	2,243	2,340	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,397	11,300	0
	FY-3	Nov	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
	FY-3	Dec	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
7	PRODUCTION CAPACITY (next 36 Months of Operations)
7.1	Production Capacity: Definitions
	Capacity per tank	[units]	1240
	Capacity per tank	[kegs]	10
	Capacity per keg	[units]	124
7.2
	Maximum Capacity:			CAPACITY (per pints)
	Tanks	Gallons	Pints	Capacity	Month	FY
				[1 week]	[ 4 week]	[48 week]
	1	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	2	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	3	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	4	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	5	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	6	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	7	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	8	155	1,240	1,240	4,960	59,520
	Total	1240	9920	9920	39680	476160

&8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev &8&K002060Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8&K002060Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

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36-Mo-Fin-Pr

										Current Cycle 0	Cycle in Calculation 0
1	Sales Projections
			Sales Projections: Products sold per month (for FY-1, FY-2, and FY-3)
	Products		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Overall
	BR01-01,	FY-1	1,390	1,390	1,254	1,328	1,549	1,986	1,986	1,901	1,901	1,841	1,328	1,328	19,182	FY-1
		FY-2	1,510	1,510	1,569	1,391	1,623	2,086	2,086	2,193	2,193	2,144	1,391	1,391	21,087	FY-2
		FY-3	1,442	1,442	1,500	1,545	1,765	2,207	2,207	2,274	2,274	2,243	1,545	1,545	21,987	FY-3
	BR01-02,	FY-1	1,167	1,167	1,205	1,406	1,606	2,008	2,008	2,239	2,239	2,374	1,406	1,369	20,194	FY-1
		FY-2	1,216	1,216	1,258	1,467	1,677	2,096	2,096	2,338	2,338	2,305	1,467	1,467	20,942	FY-2
		FY-3	1,234	1,234	1,276	1,489	1,702	2,127	2,127	2,374	2,374	2,340	1,489	1,489	21,254	FY-3
	BR01-03,	FY-1	0	0	0	0	0	1,209	1,209	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6,137	FY-1
		FY-2	0	0	0	0	1,046	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	7,246	FY-2
		FY-3	0	0	0	1,087	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,087	1,087	10,700	FY-3
	BR01-04,	FY-1	0	0	0	0	0	1,036	1,036	1,240	1,240	1,140	0	0	5,692	FY-1
		FY-2	0	0	0	0	0	1,214	1,214	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6,148	FY-2
		FY-3	0	0	0	0	1,076	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	7,276	FY-3
	BR01-05,	FY-1	0	0	0	0	0	1,036	1,036	1,240	1,240	1,140	0	0	5,692	FY-1
		FY-2	0	0	0	0	0	1,214	1,214	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6,148	FY-2
		FY-3	0	0	0	0	1,076	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	7,276	FY-3
	BR01-06,	FY-1	0	0	0	0	0	1,209	1,209	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6,137	FY-1
		FY-2	0	0	0	0	0	1,214	1,214	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6,148	FY-2
		FY-3	0	0	0	1,014	1,159	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,014	1,014	10,402	FY-3
	BR01-07,	FY-1	4,570	4,570	4,946	6,112	7,131	9,139	9,139	10,499	10,499	9,319	6,112	6,112	88,147	FY-1
		FY-2	4,690	4,690	5,849	6,049	7,057	9,074	9,074	11,447	11,447	10,256	6,049	6,049	91,731	FY-2
		FY-3	4,758	4,758	5,940	7,135	8,155	10,193	10,193	12,606	12,606	11,397	7,135	7,135	102,013	FY-3
	BR01-08,	FY-1	5,033	5,033	6,235	7,274	8,314	10,392	10,392	12,641	12,641	12,287	7,274	6,071	103,587	FY-1
		FY-2	4,984	4,984	6,182	7,213	8,243	10,304	10,304	12,542	12,542	11,335	7,213	7,213	103,058	FY-2
		FY-3	4,966	4,966	6,164	7,191	8,218	10,273	10,273	12,506	12,506	11,300	7,191	7,191	102,746	FY-3
	Total Products	FY-1	12,160	12,160	13,640	16,120	18,600	28,014	28,014	32,240	32,240	30,581	16,120	14,880	254,768	FY-1
	per Months	FY-2	12,400	12,400	14,858	16,120	19,646	28,442	28,442	33,480	33,480	31,000	16,120	16,120	262,508	FY-2
		FY-3	12,400	12,400	14,880	19,461	24,392	29,760	29,760	34,720	34,720	32,240	19,461	19,461	283,655	FY-3
															800,932	Overall
2	Prices and Variable Costs per product
				Variable Costs per Unit
	Product ID	Distribution	Name	Materials	Labor	Others	Overall	Prices
	BR01-01,	[retail]	Pilsner	0.28	0.10	0.15	$0.53	$4.00
	BR01-02,	[retail]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.10	0.15	$0.53	$4.00
	BR01-03,	[retail]	Light Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$0.50	$3.50
	BR01-04,	[retail]	Red Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$0.50	$3.50
	BR01-05,	[retail]	Pale Ale	0.25	0.10	0.15	$0.50	$3.50
	BR01-06,	[retail]	Bock Dark	0.25	0.10	0.15	$0.50	$3.50
	BR01-07,	[wholesale]	Pilsner	0.28	0..8	0.13	$0.41	$1.25
	BR01-08,	[wholesale]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0..8	0.13	$0.41	$1.28
	BR01-09,	[retail]	Special Offer	0.27	0.10	0.15	$0.51	$3.00
3	Annual Fixed Costs
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Employees salaries	0	0	0
	Utilities&Other	0	0	0
	Marketing Costs	0	0	0
	Rent	0	0	0
	Loans Payments	0	0	0
	Total Fixed Costs	$0	$0	$0
	Total Current Assets	$0
	Private Investment	$0
4	12 Month Proforma: FY-1
	Year		FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1
	Month		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
	BR01-01,	Price per unit	$4.00
		Variable cost	$0.53
		Sales Volume	1,390	1,390	1,254	1,328	1,549	1,986	1,986	1,901	1,901	1,841	1,328	1,328	19182
		Revenue	$5,560	$5,560	$5,015	$5,312	$6,198	$7,943	$7,943	$7,604	$7,604	$7,363	$5,312	$5,312	$76,728
		Expenses	$737	$737	$665	$704	$821	$1,052	$1,052	$1,008	$1,008	$976	$704	$704	$10,166
		Contribution	$4,823	$4,823	$4,351	$4,608	$5,376	$6,891	$6,891	$6,597	$6,597	$6,388	$4,608	$4,608	$66,562
	BR01-02,	Price per unit	$4.00
		Variable cost	$0.53
		Sales Volume	1,167	1,167	1,205	1,406	1,606	2,008	2,008	2,239	2,239	2,374	1,406	1,369	20194
		Revenue	$4,668	$4,668	$4,819	$5,623	$6,426	$8,032	$8,032	$8,957	$8,957	$9,497	$5,623	$5,475	$80,778
		Expenses	$619	$619	$639	$745	$851	$1,064	$1,064	$1,187	$1,187	$1,258	$745	$725	$10,703
		Contribution	$4,050	$4,050	$4,181	$4,878	$5,575	$6,968	$6,968	$7,770	$7,770	$8,239	$4,878	$4,750	$70,075
	BR01-03,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,209	1,209	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6137
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$4,231	$4,231	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$21,481
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$604	$604	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,069
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,626	$3,626	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$18,412
	BR01-04,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,036	1,036	1,240	1,240	1,140	0	0	5692
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,626	$3,626	$4,340	$4,340	$3,989	$0	$0	$19,921
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$518	$518	$620	$620	$570	$0	$0	$2,846
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,108	$3,108	$3,720	$3,720	$3,419	$0	$0	$17,075
	BR01-05,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,036	1,036	1,240	1,240	1,140	0	0	5692
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,626	$3,626	$4,340	$4,340	$3,989	$0	$0	$19,921
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$518	$518	$620	$620	$570	$0	$0	$2,846
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,108	$3,108	$3,720	$3,720	$3,419	$0	$0	$17,075
	BR01-06,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,209	1,209	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6137
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$4,231	$4,231	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$21,481
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$604	$604	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,069
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,626	$3,626	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$18,412
	BR01-07,	Price per unit	$1.25
		Variable cost	$0.41
		Sales Volume	4,570	4,570	4,946	6,112	7,131	9,139	9,139	10,499	10,499	9,319	6,112	6,112	88147
		Revenue	$5,712	$5,712	$6,183	$7,640	$8,913	$11,424	$11,424	$13,124	$13,124	$11,649	$7,640	$7,640	$110,183
		Expenses	$2,422	$2,422	$2,028	$2,506	$2,924	$3,747	$3,747	$4,305	$4,305	$3,821	$2,506	$2,506	$37,237
		Contribution	$3,290	$3,290	$4,155	$5,134	$5,990	$7,677	$7,677	$8,819	$8,819	$7,828	$5,134	$5,134	$72,946
	BR01-08,	Price per unit	$1.28
		Variable cost	$0.41
		Sales Volume	5,033	5,033	6,235	7,274	8,314	10,392	10,392	12,641	12,641	12,287	7,274	6,071	103587
		Revenue	$6,442	$6,442	$7,981	$9,311	$10,641	$13,302	$13,302	$16,180	$16,180	$15,727	$9,311	$7,771	$132,591
		Expenses	$2,667	$2,667	$2,556	$2,982	$3,409	$4,261	$4,261	$5,183	$5,183	$5,038	$2,982	$2,489	$43,678
		Contribution	$3,775	$3,775	$5,425	$6,329	$7,233	$9,041	$9,041	$10,998	$10,998	$10,690	$6,329	$5,282	$88,913
	BR01-09,	Price per unit	$3.00
		Variable cost	$0.51
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Total Revenue	$22,383	$22,383	$23,999	$27,886	$32,178	$56,415	$56,415	$63,225	$63,225	$60,894	$27,886	$26,198	$483,085
		Total Expenses	$6,445	$6,445	$5,887	$6,937	$8,005	$12,369	$12,369	$14,162	$14,162	$13,472	$6,937	$6,424	$113,614
		Total Contribution	$15,938	$15,938	$18,111	$20,949	$24,173	$44,045	$44,045	$49,063	$49,063	$47,422	$20,949	$19,774	$369,471
	Fixed Costs	FY-1 (Total)
		Employees salaries	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Utilities&Other	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Marketing Costs	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Rent	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Loan Payments	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Total Fixed Costs	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Depreciation	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Profit (Before Taxes)	$15,938	$15,938	$18,111	$20,949	$24,173	$44,045	$44,045	$49,063	$49,063	$47,422	$20,949	$19,774	$369,471
		Profit taxes	ERROR:#N/A
		Cumulative Profit	$15,938	$31,876	$49,987	$70,936	$95,109	$139,155	$183,200	$232,263	$281,326	$328,749	$349,697	$369,471
		Ending Cash Balance													ERROR:#VALUE!
		Profit (After Taxes)	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!
		Year	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1	FY-1
		Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
5	12 Month Proforma: FY-2
	Year		FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2
	Month		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
	BR01-01,	Price per unit	$4.00
		Variable cost	$0.53
		Sales Volume	1,510	1,510	1,569	1,391	1,623	2,086	2,086	2,193	2,193	2,144	1,391	1,391	21087
		Revenue	$6,039	$6,039	$6,276	$5,563	$6,491	$8,345	$8,345	$8,773	$8,773	$8,575	$5,563	$5,563	$84,347
		Expenses	$800	$800	$832	$737	$860	$1,106	$1,106	$1,162	$1,162	$1,136	$737	$737	$11,176
		Contribution	$5,239	$5,239	$5,444	$4,826	$5,631	$7,239	$7,239	$7,611	$7,611	$7,439	$4,826	$4,826	$73,171
	BR01-02,	Price per unit	$4.00
		Variable cost	$0.53
		Sales Volume	1,216	1,216	1,258	1,467	1,677	2,096	2,096	2,338	2,338	2,305	1,467	1,467	20942
		Revenue	$4,866	$4,866	$5,030	$5,868	$6,707	$8,383	$8,383	$9,353	$9,353	$9,222	$5,868	$5,868	$83,768
		Expenses	$645	$645	$666	$778	$889	$1,111	$1,111	$1,239	$1,239	$1,222	$778	$778	$11,099
		Contribution	$4,221	$4,221	$4,364	$5,091	$5,818	$7,273	$7,273	$8,114	$8,114	$8,000	$5,091	$5,091	$72,669
	BR01-03,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	1,046	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	7246
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,661	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$25,361
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$523	$620	$620	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,623
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,138	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$21,738
	BR01-04,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,214	1,214	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6148
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$4,249	$4,249	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$21,519
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$607	$607	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,074
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,642	$3,642	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$18,445
	BR01-05,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,214	1,214	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6148
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$4,249	$4,249	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$21,519
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$607	$607	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,074
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,642	$3,642	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$18,445
	BR01-06,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	1,214	1,214	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	6148
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$4,249	$4,249	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$21,519
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$607	$607	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,074
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,642	$3,642	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$18,445
	BR01-07,	Price per unit	$1.25
		Variable cost	$0.41
		Sales Volume	4,690	4,690	5,849	6,049	7,057	9,074	9,074	11,447	11,447	10,256	6,049	6,049	91731
		Revenue	$5,863	$5,863	$7,311	$7,561	$8,822	$11,342	$11,342	$14,308	$14,308	$12,820	$7,561	$7,561	$114,664
		Expenses	$2,486	$2,486	$2,398	$2,480	$2,894	$3,720	$3,720	$4,693	$4,693	$4,205	$2,480	$2,480	$38,735
		Contribution	$3,377	$3,377	$4,913	$5,081	$5,928	$7,622	$7,622	$9,615	$9,615	$8,615	$5,081	$5,081	$75,929
	BR01-08,	Price per unit	$1.28
		Variable cost	$0.41
		Sales Volume	4,984	4,984	6,182	7,213	8,243	10,304	10,304	12,542	12,542	11,335	7,213	7,213	103058
		Revenue	$6,379	$6,379	$7,914	$9,233	$10,551	$13,189	$13,189	$16,053	$16,053	$14,508	$9,233	$9,233	$131,914
		Expenses	$2,641	$2,641	$2,535	$2,957	$3,380	$4,225	$4,225	$5,142	$5,142	$4,647	$2,957	$2,957	$43,450
		Contribution	$3,738	$3,738	$5,379	$6,275	$7,172	$8,965	$8,965	$10,911	$10,911	$9,861	$6,275	$6,275	$88,464
	BR01-09,	Price per unit	$3.00
		Variable cost	$0.51
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Total Revenue	$23,146	$23,146	$26,531	$28,226	$36,231	$58,348	$58,348	$65,848	$65,848	$62,485	$28,226	$28,226	$504,610
		Total Expenses	$6,572	$6,572	$6,431	$6,952	$8,545	$12,603	$12,603	$14,717	$14,717	$13,690	$6,952	$6,952	$117,306
		Total Contribution	$16,574	$16,574	$20,100	$21,274	$27,687	$45,745	$45,745	$51,131	$51,131	$48,795	$21,274	$21,274	$387,304
	Fixed Costs	FY-2 (Total)
		Employees salaries	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Utilities&Other	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Marketing Costs	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Rent	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Loan Payments	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Total Fixed Costs	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Depreciation	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Profit (Before Taxes)	$16,574	$16,574	$20,100	$21,274	$27,687	$45,745	$45,745	$51,131	$51,131	$48,795	$21,274	$21,274	$387,304
		Profit taxes	ERROR:#N/A
		Cumulative Profit	$16,574	$33,149	$53,249	$74,522	$102,209	$147,954	$193,699	$244,831	$295,962	$344,757	$366,030	$387,304
		Ending Cash Balance													ERROR:#VALUE!
		Profit (After Taxes)	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!
		Year	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2	FY-2
		Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
6	12 Month Proforma: FY-3
	Year		FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3
	Month		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
	BR01-01,	Price per unit	$4.00
		Variable cost	$0.53
		Sales Volume	1,442	1,442	1,500	1,545	1,765	2,207	2,207	2,274	2,274	2,243	1,545	1,545	21987
		Revenue	$5,768	$5,768	$6,000	$6,178	$7,061	$8,826	$8,826	$9,096	$9,096	$8,971	$6,178	$6,178	$87,949
		Expenses	$764	$764	$795	$819	$936	$1,169	$1,169	$1,205	$1,205	$1,189	$819	$819	$11,653
		Contribution	$5,004	$5,004	$5,205	$5,360	$6,125	$7,657	$7,657	$7,891	$7,891	$7,783	$5,360	$5,360	$76,295
	BR01-02,	Price per unit	$4.00
		Variable cost	$0.53
		Sales Volume	1,234	1,234	1,276	1,489	1,702	2,127	2,127	2,374	2,374	2,340	1,489	1,489	21254
		Revenue	$4,936	$4,936	$5,105	$5,956	$6,807	$8,508	$8,508	$9,495	$9,495	$9,359	$5,956	$5,956	$85,017
		Expenses	$654	$654	$676	$789	$902	$1,127	$1,127	$1,258	$1,258	$1,240	$789	$789	$11,265
		Contribution	$4,282	$4,282	$4,429	$5,167	$5,905	$7,381	$7,381	$8,237	$8,237	$8,119	$5,167	$5,167	$73,752
	BR01-03,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	1,087	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,087	1,087	10700
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$3,804	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$3,804	$3,804	$37,451
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$543	$620	$620	$620	$620	$620	$620	$543	$543	$5,350
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$3,260	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,260	$3,260	$32,101
	BR01-04,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	1,076	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	7276
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,767	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$25,467
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$538	$620	$620	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,638
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,229	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$21,829
	BR01-05,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	1,076	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	0	0	7276
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,767	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$0	$0	$25,467
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$538	$620	$620	$620	$620	$620	$0	$0	$3,638
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3,229	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$0	$0	$21,829
	BR01-06,	Price per unit	$3.50
		Variable cost	$0.50
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	1,014	1,159	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,014	1,014	10402
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$3,550	$4,057	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$4,340	$3,550	$3,550	$36,407
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$507	$580	$620	$620	$620	$620	$620	$507	$507	$5,201
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$3,043	$3,478	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,720	$3,043	$3,043	$31,206
	BR01-07,	Price per unit	$1.25
		Variable cost	$0.41
		Sales Volume	4,758	4,758	5,940	7,135	8,155	10,193	10,193	12,606	12,606	11,397	7,135	7,135	102013
		Revenue	$5,948	$5,948	$7,425	$8,919	$10,193	$12,742	$12,742	$15,757	$15,757	$14,246	$8,919	$8,919	$127,516
		Expenses	$2,522	$2,522	$2,435	$2,926	$3,343	$4,179	$4,179	$5,168	$5,168	$4,673	$2,926	$2,926	$42,967
		Contribution	$3,426	$3,426	$4,990	$5,994	$6,850	$8,562	$8,562	$10,589	$10,589	$9,574	$5,994	$5,994	$84,549
	BR01-08,	Price per unit	$1.28
		Variable cost	$0.41
		Sales Volume	4,966	4,966	6,164	7,191	8,218	10,273	10,273	12,506	12,506	11,300	7,191	7,191	102746
		Revenue	$6,357	$6,357	$7,890	$9,205	$10,519	$13,149	$13,149	$16,008	$16,008	$14,464	$9,205	$9,205	$131,515
		Expenses	$2,632	$2,632	$2,527	$2,948	$3,370	$4,212	$4,212	$5,128	$5,128	$4,633	$2,948	$2,948	$43,318
		Contribution	$3,725	$3,725	$5,362	$6,256	$7,150	$8,937	$8,937	$10,880	$10,880	$9,831	$6,256	$6,256	$88,197
	BR01-09,	Price per unit	$3.00
		Variable cost	$0.51
		Sales Volume	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Contribution	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Total Revenue	$23,008	$23,008	$26,420	$37,612	$50,512	$60,586	$60,586	$67,717	$67,717	$64,401	$37,612	$37,612	$556,789
		Total Expenses	$6,572	$6,572	$6,434	$8,532	$10,826	$13,168	$13,168	$15,239	$15,239	$14,215	$8,532	$8,532	$127,030
		Total Contribution	$16,436	$16,436	$19,986	$29,079	$39,686	$47,418	$47,418	$52,477	$52,477	$50,187	$29,079	$29,079	$429,758
	Fixed Costs	FY-3 (Total)
		Employees salaries	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Utilities&Other	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Marketing Costs	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Rent	$0.00	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Loan Payments	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Total Fixed Costs	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Depreciation	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
		Profit (Before Taxes)	$16,436	$16,436	$19,986	$29,079	$39,686	$47,418	$47,418	$52,477	$52,477	$50,187	$29,079	$29,079	$429,758
		Profit Taxes	ERROR:#N/A
		Cumulative Profit	$16,436	$32,871	$52,857	$81,937	$121,623	$169,041	$216,458	$268,936	$321,413	$371,599	$400,679	$429,758
		Ending Cash Balance													ERROR:#VALUE!
		Profit (After Taxes)	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!	ERROR:#VALUE!
		Year	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3	FY-3
		Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
7	Financial Summary: per FY and Overall
			36 Months	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
			Total	Total	Total	Total
	BR01-01,
		Sales Volume	62,256	19,182	21,087	21,987
		Revenue	249,024	76,728	84,347	87,949
		Expenses	32,996	10,166	11,176	11,653
		Contribution	216,028	66,562	73,171	76,295
	BR01-02,
		Sales Volume	62,391	20,194	20,942	21,254
		Revenue	249,563	80,778	83,768	85,017
		Expenses	33,067	10,703	11,099	11,265
		Contribution	216,496	70,075	72,669	73,752
	BR01-03,
		Sales Volume	24,084	6,137	7,246	10,700
		Revenue	84,293	21,481	25,361	37,451
		Expenses	12,042	3,069	3,623	5,350
		Contribution	72,251	18,412	21,738	32,101
	BR01-04,
		Sales Volume	19,116	5,692	6,148	7,276
		Revenue	66,907	19,921	21,519	25,467
		Expenses	9,558	2,846	3,074	3,638
		Contribution	57,349	17,075	18,445	21,829
	BR01-05,
		Sales Volume	19,116	5,692	6,148	7,276
		Revenue	66,907	19,921	21,519	25,467
		Expenses	9,558	2,846	3,074	3,638
		Contribution	57,349	17,075	18,445	21,829
	BR01-06,
		Sales Volume	22,688	6,137	6,148	10,402
		Revenue	79,407	21,481	21,519	36,407
		Expenses	11,344	3,069	3,074	5,201
		Contribution	68,063	18,412	18,445	31,206
	BR01-07,
		Sales Volume	281,891	88,147	91,731	102,013
		Revenue	352,363	110,183	114,664	127,516
		Expenses	118,939	37,237	38,735	42,967
		Contribution	233,424	72,946	75,929	84,549
	BR01-08,
		Sales Volume	309,391	103,587	103,058	102,746
		Revenue	396,020	132,591	131,914	131,515
		Expenses	130,446	43,678	43,450	43,318
		Contribution	265,574	88,913	88,464	88,197
	BR01-09,
		Sales Volume	4,093	2,177	372	1,545
		Revenue	12,280	6,530	1,115	4,635
		Expenses	2,102	1,125	189	788
		Contribution	10,177	5,405	925	3,847
		Total Revenue	1,556,764	489,616	505,724	561,424
		Total Expenses	360,053	114,739	117,495	127,818
		Total Contribution	1,196,711	374,876	388,229	433,605
	Fixed Costs
		Employees salaries	390,000	130,000	130,000	130,000
		Utilities&Other	114,000	38,000	38,000	38,000
		Marketing Costs	114,000	38,000	38,000	38,000
		Rent	15,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
		Loan Payments	62,384	25,297	20,795	16,292
		Total Fixed Costs	695,384	236,297	231,795	227,292
		Profit (Before Taxes)	501,327	138,579	156,435	206,313
		Profit (After Taxes)	501,327	138,579	156,435	206,313
		Year	36 Months	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3

&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Professor Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

&8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N

Choose cycle to calculate

D-Analysis

								Current Cycle 0	Calculating 0	MCS Interation:0
1	BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
					FY-1
				TOTAL BRAND 01	BR01-01,	BR01-02,	BR01-03,	BR01-04,	BR01-05,	BR01-06,	BR01-07,	BR01-08,	BR01-09,
	Revenue		[$]	$483,085.46	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$0
	Expenses		[$]	$113,614.10	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$37,237	$43,678	$0
	Total Fixed Costs		[$]	$0
	Contribution		[$]	$369,471.36	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	18,412	$72,946	$88,913	$0
	Contribution Margin [%]			76.48	86.75	86.75	85.71	85.71	85.71	85.71	66.20	67.06	ERROR:#DIV/0!
		Break-even		Months	0.00		Break-even	Months	0.00	[=Total Fixed Costs/Contribution*12 months]
				Sales	$0			Sales	$0	[=Total Fixed Costs/Contribution Margin]
		X-axis range		0	0.00
		Fixed Cost Range		$0	$0
		Total Revenue Range		$0	0
		Total Cost Range		$0	0
2	WHAT IF ANALYSIS
	2.1	What is the BEP if the total fixed costs are increased and/or decreased while the selling price and the variable costs per products remain the same?
				FY-1
	BRAND 01		TOTAL BRAND 01	BR01-01,	BR01-02,	BR01-03,	BR01-04,	BR01-05,	BR01-06,	BR01-07,	BR01-08,	BR01-09,
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
Increase to:	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$250,000
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Break-Even Point	Months	7.95
	(BEP)	Revenue	$324,510
Decrease to:	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$230,000
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Break-Even Point	Months	7.32
	(BEP)	Revenue	$298,549
	2.2	What is the BEP if the selling prices per products are increased and/or decreased while the total fixed costs and the variable costs per products remain the same?
				FY-1
	BRAND 01		TOTAL BRAND 01	BR01-01,	BR01-02,	BR01-03,	BR01-04,	BR01-05,	BR01-06,	BR01-07,	BR01-08,	BR01-09,
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
Increase to:	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728.25	$80,777.98	$21,481.19	$19,921.29	$19,921.29	$21,481.19	$110,183.29	$132,590.98	$6,530.11
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166.49	$10,703.08	$3,068.74	$2,845.90	$2,845.90	$3,068.74	$36,140.12	$42,470.55	$1,110.12
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,561.76	$70,074.90	$18,412.45	$17,075.39	$17,075.39	$18,412.45	$74,043.17	$90,120.43	$5,419.99
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Break-Even Point	Months	0.00
	(BEP)	Revenue	$0
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
Decrease to:	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	$0.87	$0.87	$0.86	$0.86	$0.86	$0.86	$0.67	$0.68	$0.83
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		$19,182.06	$20,194.50	$6,137.48	$5,691.80	$5,691.80	$6,137.48	$88,146.63	$103,586.70	$2,176.70
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728.25	$80,777.98	$21,481.19	$19,921.29	$19,921.29	$21,481.19	$110,183.29	$132,590.98	$6,530.11
	% of Sales	[%]		$0.16	$0.16	$0.04	$0.04	$0.04	$0.04	$0.23	$0.27	$0.01
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166.49	$10,703.08	$3,068.74	$2,845.90	$2,845.90	$3,068.74	$36,140.12	$42,470.55	$1,110.12
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,561.76	$70,074.90	$18,412.45	$17,075.39	$17,075.39	$18,412.45	$74,043.17	$90,120.43	$5,419.99
		[%]		$0.18	$0.19	$0.05	$0.05	$0.05	$0.05	$0.20	$0.24	$0.01
	Break-Even Point	Months	0.00
	(BEP)	Revenue	$0
	2.3	What is the BEP if the Variable Cost/unit are increased and/or decreased while the total fixed costs and the price per products remain the same?
	BRAND 01		TOTAL BRAND 01	BR01-01,	BR01-02,	BR01-03,	BR01-04,	BR01-05,	BR01-06,	BR01-07,	BR01-08,	BR01-09,
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
Increase to:	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Contribution margin	[%]	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
	Contribution	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
		[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Break-Even Point	Months	0.00
	(BEP)	Sales	$ - 0
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
Decrease to:	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Contribution margin	[%]	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
	Contribution	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
		[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Break-Even Point	Months	0.00
	(BEP)	Sales	$ - 0
3	SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
				FY-1
	BRAND 01		TOTAL BRAND 01	BR01-01,	BR01-02,	BR01-03,	BR01-04,	BR01-05,	BR01-06,	BR01-07,	BR01-08,	BR01-09,
				[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]	256,945	19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Profit (Before Taxes)	[$]	$377,196
	Price Sensitivity	Min		$3.00	$3.00	$2.50	$2.50	$2.50	$2.50	$1.00	$1.00	$1.00	$1.00
		Base		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$1.28	$1.28
		Market Research		$5.00	$5.00	$4.00	$4.00	$4.00	$4.00	$1.30	$1.35	$1.35	$1.35
		Max		$6.00	$6.00	$5.00	$5.00	$5.00	$5.00	$1.50	$1.50	$1.50	$1.50
	VarCosts Sensitivity	Min		$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40
		Base		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.41	$0.41
		Market Research		$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60
		Max		$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90
		retail	wholesale
	max divided by min	2	1.5
	Min			19182	20194	6137	5692	5692	6137	58764	69058	2177
	Projected Consumption	[quantity]	238388	25576	26926	8592	7969	7969	8592	70517	79416	2830
	Max			38364	40389	12275	11384	11384	12275	88147	103587	4353
	Contribution	Projected	$ 454,671	$ 112,535	$ 118,474	$ 29,214	$ 27,093	$ 27,093	$ 29,214	$ 49,362	$ 59,562	$ 2,122
	Profit before Taxes	Projected	$454,671
4	OPTIMIZATION ANALYSIS
				FY-1
	BRAND 01		TOTAL BRAND 01	BR01-01,	BR01-02,	BR01-03,	BR01-04,	BR01-05,	BR01-06,	BR01-07,	BR01-08,	BR01-09,
				[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	Total Fixed Costs	[$]	$0
	Price/unit	[$]		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$3.00
	Variable cost/unit	[$]		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.51
	Contribution/unit	[$]		$3.47	$3.47	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$3.00	$0.84	$0.87	$2.49
	Contribution margin	[%]	77.04%	86.75%	86.75%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	85.71%	67.20%	67.97%	83.00%
	Sales Volume	[quantity]		19,182	20,194	6,137	5,692	5,692	6,137	88,147	103,587	2,177
	Revenue	[$]	$489,616	$76,728	$80,778	$21,481	$19,921	$19,921	$21,481	$110,183	$132,591	$6,530
	% of Sales	[%]		15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	Expense	[$]	$112,420	$10,166	$10,703	$3,069	$2,846	$2,846	$3,069	$36,140	$42,471	$1,110
	Contribution	[$]	$377,196	$66,562	$70,075	$18,412	$17,075	$17,075	$18,412	$74,043	$90,120	$5,420
		[%]		17.65%	18.58%	4.88%	4.53%	4.53%	4.88%	19.63%	23.89%	1.44%
	Profit (Before Taxes)	[$]	$377,196
	Price Sensitivity	Min		$3.00	$3.00	$2.50	$2.50	$2.50	$2.50	$1.00	$1.00	$1.00	$1.00
		Base		$4.00	$4.00	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$3.50	$1.25	$1.28	$1.28	1.28
		Market Research		$5.00	$5.00	$4.00	$4.00	$4.00	$4.00	$1.30	$1.35	$1.35	$1.35
		Max		$6.00	$6.00	$5.00	$5.00	$5.00	$5.00	$1.50	$1.50	$1.50	$1.50
	VarCosts Sensitivity	Min		$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40	$0.40
		Base		$0.53	$0.53	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	$0.41	$0.41	$0.41	0.41
		Market Research		$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60	$0.60
		Max		$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90
		retail	wholesale
	max divided by min	2	1.5
	Min			19182	20194	6137	5692	5692	6137	58764	69058	2177
	Projected Consumption	[quantity]	238388	25576	26926	8592	7969	7969	8592	70517	79416	2830
	Max			38364	40389	12275	11384	11384	12275	88147	103587	4353
	min consumption deviation		-2.00%
	consumption deviation		-7.22%
	max consumption deviation		2.00%
	Contribution	Projected	$454,671	$112,534.76	$118,474.37	$29,214.41	$27,092.96	$27,092.96	$29,214.41	$49,362.11	$59,562.35	$2,122.29
	Fixed Costs (Please enter manually)
	Profit before Taxes	Projected	$454,671
	Targeted Market size recommended for next cycle:
5	RISK ANALYSIS
								Cycle used for MCS: Total iterations: 100 Current Interaction: 0
								Cycle used in calculation		0
								Average (Profit)
								Failure rate (Profit)
								Standard Deviation (Profit)
								Cycle used in calculation
								Average (Profit)
								Failure rate (Profit)
								Standard Deviation (Profit)
								Cycle used in calculation
								Average (Profit)
								Failure rate (Profit)
								Standard Deviation (Profit)
								Cycle used in calculation
								Average (Profit)
								Failure rate (Profit)
								Standard deviation (Profit)
								Average (IRR)
								Failure rate (Return on investment)
								Standard deviation (IRR)

&8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N

Break-Even Analysis Chart: BRAND 01

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36 month profit after taxes

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Performance

										Current Cycle 0	Calculating 0
1	Key Success Indicators
From Project-Start						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
	Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %)				[%]		58.49%	62.26%	67.93%	62.89%
	Retain of critical technology personnel				[number]		1	1	1	1.00
	Retain of critical marketing personnel				[number]		1	1	2	1.33
From Current Cycle						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
	Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %)				[%]		53.50%	55.13%	59.57%	56.07%
	Retention of critical technology personnel				[number]		1	1	1	1.00
	Retention of critical marketing personnel				[number]		1	1.5	1	1.17
2	Key Performance Indicators
From Project-Start						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
KPI 1:	Actual size of the local market				[units]	15,000,000	103%	106%	110%
KPI 2:	Number of customers- existing business				[customers]	82,500
KPI 3:	Average consumption per existing customer				[units]	1.5
KPI 4:	Size of the penetrated market - without new project				[%]	0%	105%	110%	115%
					[units]	123,750	129,938	136,125	142,313	408,375
KPI 5:	Overall increase of the penetrated market - with new project				[%]					220%
KPI 6:	Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market				[%]		31.00%	33.00%	36.00%	100.00%
	Projected sales, new brand				[units]		278,512	296,480	323,433	898,425
KPI 7:	Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only				[%]		31.0%	31.5%	32.0%	31.53%
					[units]		86,339	93,391	103,499	283,228
	Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)				[%]		66%	69%	73%
	Wholesale distribution (new brand)				[%]		69%	69%	68%	68.48%
					[units]		192,173	203,089	219,934	615,197
KPI 8:	Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)				[units]	476,160	476,160	476,160	476,160
From Current Cycle						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
KPI 1:	Actual size of the local market				[units]	15,000,000	103%	106%	110%
KPI 2:	Number customers- existing business				[customers]	82,500
KPI 3:	Average consumption per existing customer				[units]	2
KPI 4:	Size of the penetrated market - without new project				[%]	0%	105%	110%	115%
					[units]	123,750	129,938	136,125	142,313	408,375
KPI 5:	Overall increase of the penetrated market - with new project				[%]					220%
KPI 6:	Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market				[%]					0.00%
	Projected sales, new brand				[units]		254,768	262,508	283,655	800,932
KPI 7:	Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only				[%]		0%	0%	0%	0.00%
					[units]		- 0	- 0	- 0	- 0
	Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)				[%]		0%	0%	0%
	Wholesale distribution (new brand)				[%]		100%	100%	100%	0.00%
					[units]		- 0	- 0	- 0	- 0
KPI 8:	Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)				[units]	476,160	476,160	476,160	476,160
	Projected consumption current cycle VS Project-Start [Retail]					Projected consumption current cycle VS Project-Start [Wholesale]						Recommended additional value for next cycle
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3				FY-1	FY-2	FY-3				FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Project-start	86,339	93,391	103,499		Project-start		192,173	203,089	219,934		Project Start		278,512	296,480	323,433
	Current cycle	- 0	- 0	- 0		Current cycle		- 0	- 0	- 0		Current Cycle		254,768	262,508	283,655
		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%				0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		Recommended Value		23,743	33,972	39,778
3	EFFICIENCY RATIOS
	1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]
		BR01-PA-01,	BR01-PA-02,	BR01-PA-03,	BR01-PA-04,	BR01-PA-05,	BR01-PA-06,	BR01-PA-07,	BR01-PA-08,	BR01-PA-09,
	FY-1	15.67%	16.50%	4.39%	4.07%	4.07%	4.39%	22.50%	27.08%	1.33%
	FY-2	16.68%	16.56%	5.01%	4.26%	4.26%	4.26%	22.67%	26.08%	0.22%
	FY-3	15.67%	15.14%	6.67%	4.54%	4.54%	6.48%	22.71%	23.43%	0.83%
	Total 3 years	16.00%	16.03%	5.41%	4.30%	4.30%	5.10%	22.63%	25.44%	0.79%
	2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%]
		BR01-PA-01,	BR01-PA-02,	BR01-PA-03,	BR01-PA-04,	BR01-PA-05,	BR01-PA-06,	BR01-PA-07,	BR01-PA-08,	BR01-PA-09,
	FY-1	8.86%	9.33%	2.67%	2.48%	2.48%	2.67%	32.45%	38.07%	0.98%
	FY-2	9.51%	9.45%	3.08%	2.62%	2.62%	2.62%	32.97%	36.98%	0.16%
	FY-3	9.12%	8.81%	4.19%	2.85%	2.85%	4.07%	33.62%	33.89%	0.62%
	Total 3 years	9.16%	9.18%	3.34%	2.65%	2.65%	3.15%	33.03%	36.23%	0.58%
	3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%]
		BR01-PA-01,	BR01-PA-02,	BR01-PA-03,	BR01-PA-04,	BR01-PA-05,	BR01-PA-06,	BR01-PA-07,	BR01-PA-08,	BR01-PA-09,
	FY-1	17.76%	18.69%	4.91%	4.55%	4.55%	4.91%	19.46%	23.72%	1.44%
	FY-2	18.85%	18.72%	5.60%	4.75%	4.75%	4.75%	19.56%	22.79%	0.24%
	FY-3	17.60%	17.01%	7.40%	5.03%	5.03%	7.20%	19.50%	20.34%	0.89%
	Total 3 years	18.05%	18.09%	6.04%	4.79%	4.79%	5.69%	19.51%	22.19%	0.85%
	4.			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Fixed Costs/Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$]			$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
	The company spends $0.XX fixed costs for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 01
	5.
	Compensations/Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$]			$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
	The company spends $0.XX costs for compensation needed for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 01
	6.
	(Local Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total Revenue Sales [$]			$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
	The company spends $0.XX costs for advertising & trade shows needed for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 01
	7.			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$]			$0.76	$0.77	$0.77
	The company make $0.XX overall profit before taxes for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 01
4	Trend Analysis
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
		Revenue	$ 483,085	$ 504,610	$ 556,789	$ 1,544,484
		Expenses	$ 113,614	$ 117,306	$ 127,030	$ 357,950
		Total contribution	$ 369,471	$ 387,304	$ 429,758	$ 1,186,534
				FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
			Profit Before Taxes	$ 369,471	$ 387,304	$ 429,758	$ 1,186,534
			Fixed Costs	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0
					FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
				Marketing Cost	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0
				Compensation	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0
				Other costs	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0
		FY-1				FY-2				FY-3
		Q-1	Q-2	Q-3	Q-4	Q-1	Q-2	Q-3	Q-4	Q-1	Q-2	Q-3	Q-4
	Revenue	$68,764	$116,479	$182,864	$114,979	$72,824	$122,805	$190,044	$118,937	$72,435	$148,710	$196,019	$139,625
	Expenses	$18,777	$27,311	$40,692	$26,834	$19,575	$28,100	$42,037	$27,595	$19,578	$32,527	$43,647	$31,279
	Contribution	$49,987	$89,168	$142,172	$88,145	$53,249	$94,705	$148,008	$91,342	$52,857	$116,183	$152,372	$108,346
	Fixed Costs	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
	Profit (B. T.)	$49,987	$89,168	$142,172	$88,145	$53,249	$94,705	$148,008	$91,342	$52,857	$116,183	$152,372	$108,346
Revenue
Expenses
Contribution
Fixed Costs
Proft BT

&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

&8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N

FY-3

Marketing Cost Compensation Other costs 0 0 0

Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 0 0 0 0

Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 53248.648979924415 94705.39 0792873732 148007.70018787042 91342.247675390056

Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 72435.280981309304 148709.87368662 804 196018.82730803301 139624.57820203929

Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 19577.964402553032 32526.58891966 7091 43646.702447938973 31278.997422099579

Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 52857.316578756276 116183.284 76696095 152372.12486009405 108345.58077993969

Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 0 0 0 0

Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 52857.316578756276 116183.2 8476696095 152372.12486009405 108345.58077993969

Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 68763.610023575267 116478.73406442 591 182864.3119081154 114978.79608718827

Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 0 0 0 0

Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 49987.035220451791 89167.54 0308040305 142171.81946723978 88144.953512568231

FY-2

Marketing Cost Compensation Other costs 0 0 0

Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 18776.574803123469 27311.19375638 5605 40692.492440875634 26833.842574620026

Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 49987.035220451791 89167.5403 08040305 142171.81946723978 88144.953512568231

1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]

BR01-PA-01, BR01-PA-02, BR01-PA-03, BR01-PA-04, BR01-PA-05, BR01-PA-06, BR01-PA-07, BR01-PA-08, BR01-PA-09, 0.15996239272099749 0.1603085896182283 5.4146207995769455E-2 4.2978425742516389E-2 4.2978425742516389E-2 5.1007707870112287E-2 0.22634356554445953 0.2543866841473692 7.8880006822667579E-3

2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%]

BR01-PA-01, BR01-PA-02, BR01-PA-03, BR01-PA-04, BR01-PA-05, BR01-PA-06, BR01-PA-07, BR01-PA-08, BR01-PA-09, 9.1641135332462043E-2 9.1839468574451313E-2 3.3444653382186301E-2 2.6546615204749185E-2 2.6546615204749185E-2 3.1506086365667013E-2 0.33033912121465159 0.36229 693990702627 5.8393653695314983E-3

3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%]

BR01-PA-01, BR01-PA-02, BR01-PA-03, BR01-PA-04, BR01-PA-05, BR01-PA-06, BR01-PA-07, BR01-PA-08, BR01-PA-09, 0.18051810606522153 0.18090879047669542 6.0374653495619213E-2 4.7922239635036112E-2 4.7922239635036112E-2 5.6875131143723084E-2 0.19505458013302612 0.22191988884274208 8.5043705729004378E-3

[类别名称] [百分比] R W 0.31 0.69 R W 0 1 [类别名称] [百分比] R W 0.315 0.68500000000000005 R W 0 1 FY-1 Marketing Cost Compensation Other costs 0 0 0 [类别名称] [百分比] R W 0.32 0.67999999999999994 R W 0 1 Project-Start 86338.642500000016 93391.278750000012 103498.56000000003 Current Cycle FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 0 0 0 Percentage 0 0 0 Project-start 192173.10750000001 203088.97125000006 219934.44000000003 Current Cycle FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 0 0 0 Percentage 0 0 0 Efficiency Ratio of Task 4,5,6 Fixed cost/Total overall sales FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 0 0 0 Compensations/total overall sales FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 0 0 0 (Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total overall sales FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 0 0 0 Efficiency Ratio of Task 7 Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$ ] FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 0. 764815721348999 0.76753170907814017 0.77185189804969023 FY-1 Revenue Expenses Total contribution 113614.10357500473 369471.34850830009 FY-2 Revenue Expenses Total contribution 117305.76731626524 387303.98763605865 FY-3 Expenses Total contribution 127030.25319225869 429758.30698575097 FY-3 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 72435.280981309304 148709.87368662804 196018.82730803301 139624.57820203929 FY-2 72823.579673402346 122805.04125354659 190044.27332986405 118936.8606955109 FY-1 68763.610023575267 116478.73406442591 182864.3119081154 114978.79608718827 FY-1 Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 429758.30698575097 0 FY-3 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 19577.964402553032 32526.588919667091 43646.702447938973 31278.997422099579 FY-2 19574.930693477927 28099.650460672849 42036.573141993627 27594.613020120836 FY-1 18776.574803123469 27311.193756385605 40692.492440875634 26833.842574620026 FY-3 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 52857.316578756276 116183.28476696095 152372.12486009405 108345.58077993969 FY-2 53248.648979924415 94705.390792873732 148007.70018787042 91342.247675390056 FY-1 49987.035220451791 89167.540308040305 142171.81946723978 88144.953512568231 FY-3 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 0 0 0 0 FY-2 0 0 0 0 FY-1 0 0 0 0 FY-3 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 52857.316578756276 116183.28476696095 152372.12486009405 108345.58077993969 FY-2 53248.648979924415 94705.390792873732 148007.70018787042 91342.247675390056 FY-1 49987.035220451791 89167.540308040305 142171.81946723978 88144.953512568231 Retention of critical technology personnel Retain of critical technology personnel FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 1 1 1 Retention of critical technology personnel FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 1 1 1 Retention of critical marketing personnel Retain of critical marketing personnel FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 1 1 2 Retention of critical marketing personnel FY-1 FY-2 FY-3 1 1.5 1 FY-1 Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 387303.98763605865 0 FY-1 Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 369471.34850830009 0 Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 72823.579673402346 122805.04125354659 190044.27332986405 118936.8606955109 Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 19574.930693477927 28099.65046067 2849 42036.573141993627 27594.613020120836 Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 53248.648979924415 94705.3907 92873732 148007.70018787042 91342.247675390056

In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should decrease each year

In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should increase each year

II: Total Contribution- Fixed Costs

III: Fixed Cost Structure

I: Product Structure

Sim-Report

CurrentCycle 0 Cycle in Calculation 0 Cycle for Monte-Carlo Simulation

Cycles

Start

Cycle 01

Cycle 02

Cycle 03

Cycle 04

Cycle 05

Cycle 06

Cycle 07

Underlying Cycles

Department

Selected metrics for analyzing and evaluating the efficiency of projects or investments

Total revenue, Total

Total Revenue, FY1

Total Revenue, FY2

Total Revenue, FY3

Profit Before Taxes, Total

Profit Before Taxes, FY-1

Profit Before Taxes, FY-2

Profit Before Taxes, FY-3

Net Profit (After Taxes), Total

Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-1

Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-2

Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-3

Invested Capital

Profit BT/Total Revenue (36 Month)

Net Profit/Total Revenue (36 Month)

Break Even Point: Months

Break Even Point: Revenue

Ending Cash Balance (End of FY-1)

Return On Investment (ROI)

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Discount Rate

Risk-Free Rate

Net Present Value

Duration (3 year to maturity, 10% coupon Bond)

Duration (Project)

Standard Deviation (Profit)

Failure rate (Return On Investment)

Standard Deviation (IRR)

Sharpe Ratio (Applying Risk-Free Interest Rate)

Sharpe Ratio (Applying Expected Return on Investment)

Average (Profit)

Average (IRR)

Business Indicators

1.1

Critical Success Factors

1.2

Key Performance Indicators

2.0

Private Investment

2.1

Employees

2.11

Total Salaries Budget, FY-1

2.12

Total Salaries Budget, FY-2

2.13

Total Salaries Budget, FY-3

2.2

Range of compensations for critical workers

2.3

Utilities & Others

2.31

Total Utilities Payments, FY-1

2.32

Total Utilities Payments, FY-2

2.33

Total Utilities Payments, FY-3

2.4

Marketing Costs

2.41

Total Market Costs, FY-1

2.42

Total Market Costs, FY-2

2.43

Total Market Costs, FY-3

2.5

Rent

2.51

Total Rent, FY-1

2.52

Total Rent, FY-2

2.53

Total Rent, FY-3

2.6

Debt

2.61

Total Payments, FY-1

2.62

Total Payments, FY-2

2.63

Total Payments, FY-3

2.64

Total debt

2.70

Depreciation

2.701

2.710

Tax Shelter, FY-1

2.711

2.720

Tax Shelter, FY-2

2.721

2.730

Tax Shelter, FY-3

2.8

Financial Market Indicators

3.1

Taxes

3.2

Fees

3.21

Total Fees

4.1

Product Name & Description

5.1

Targeted Marked Size

6.1

Sales Projections

6.21

Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-1

6.22

Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-2

6.23

Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-3

7.1

Capacity Definitions

7.2

Capacity

&8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N

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Monte-Carlo Simulation

	Cycle in Calculation	Required Number of Interactions 100				Current interaction 0
0.0	Preset Parameters
	Section	Parameters	Constant	Min	Max	mu	sigma	epsilon
						0	0.5	5.0%
		Total	#
	1.25		*
	1.26		*
	1.31	Profit	*
	1.41		*
	1.41	!Material				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Labor				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Others				0.055	0.082
	1.24		*
	1.12	**				0.000	0.350
	1.12	***				0.000	0.350
	1.21	! Budget	#
	1.21	! Number	#
	1.21	!Salary		1.000	1.050
	1.22	?FY-1	#
	1.22	?FY-2		1.000	1.100
	1.22	?FY-3		1.000	1.100
	1.23	?FY-1	#
	1.23	?FY-2		1.000	1.100
	1.23	?FY-3		1.000	1.100
	1.41	!Material				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Labor				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Others				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Material				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Labor				0.055	0.082
	1.41	!Others				0.055	0.082
	1.12	?FY1+FY2+FY3	#
1.0	Business Indicators
			Initial Parameters			Distribution Parameters			New Parameters
		Constant	Expected	Min	Max	mu	sigma	epsilon	Random	New Value
1.11	Critical Success Factors
1.12	Key Performance Indicators
1.21	Employees
1.211	Total Salaries Budget, FY-1
1.212	Total Salaries Budget, FY-2
1.213	Total Salaries Budget, FY-3
1.22	Utilities & Others
1.221	Total Utilities Payments, FY-1
1.222	Total Utilities Payments, FY-2
1.223	Total Utilities Payments, FY-3
1.23	Marketing Costs
1.231	Total Market Costs, FY-1
1.232	Total Market Costs, FY-2
1.233	Total Market Costs, FY-3
1.24	Rent
1.241	Total Rent, FY-1
1.242	Total Rent, FY-2
1.243	Total Rent, FY-3
1.25	Debt
1.251	Total Payments, FY-1
1.252	Total Payments, FY-2
1.253	Total Payments, FY-3
1.26	Depreciation
	Tax Shelter, FY-1
	Tax Shelter, FY-2
	Tax Shelter, FY-3
1.31	Taxes
1.32	Fees
1.321	Total Fees
1.41	Products Name & Description
1.412	Products Variable Cost, FY-2
1.413	Products Variable Cost, FY-3
1.51	Targeted Marked Size
1.621	Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-1
1.622	Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-2
1.623	Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-3
1.63	Sales Projections	Produced	Demanded	Excess
2	Profit Calculation
	Year		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	BR01-PA-01,	Price per unit
		Discount
		Material	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Labor
		Others
		Variable cost
		Produced
		Sold
		Excess
		Revenue	0.00	0.00	ERROR:#REF!
		Expenses	0.00	ERROR:#REF!	ERROR:#REF!
		Contribution	0.00	ERROR:#REF!	ERROR:#REF!
		Employees salaries	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Utilities&Other	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Marketing Costs	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Rent	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Loan Payments	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Total Fixed Costs	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Depreciation	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Profit (Before Taxes)	0.00	ERROR:#REF!	ERROR:#REF!
		Profit taxes	0.00	0.00	0.00
		Profit (After Taxes)	0	ERROR:#REF!	ERROR:#REF!	ERROR:#REF!
3	Key Parameters
	Parameter	Value
	Cycle in use (at beging)
	# Interactions	100
	Current interaction	0
	# Simulations Run	0
	Current Cycle in Use
	Histogram Parameters	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	Total
	Min
	Max
3	Record
							Profit FY-1			Profit FY-2		Profit FY-3		Total Profit
Interaction	Initial Investment	Profit FY-1	Profit FY-2	Profit FY-3	Total Profit	IRR	Interval	Counts		Interval	Counts	Interval	Counts	Interval	Counts

Preset

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Mktg-Mgt

1	Key Performance Indicators
						FY-0	FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	FY1+FY2+FY3
KPI 1:	Actual size of the local market				[units]	15,000,000	103.00%	106.00%	110.00%
KPI 2:	Number of customers- existing business				[customers]	82,500
KPI 3:	Average consumption per existing customer				[units]	1.50
KPI 4:	Size of the penetrated market - without new project				[%]		105.00%	110.00%	115.00%
	*				[units]	123,750	129,938	136,125	142,313	408,375
KPI 5:	Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project				[%]					220%
KPI 6:	Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market				[%]		31.00%	33.00%	36.00%	100.00%
	Projected sales, new brand				[units]		278,512	296,480	323,433	898,425
KPI 7:	Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only				[%]		31.0%	31.5%	32.0%	31.53%
	**				[units]		86,339	93,391	103,499	283,228
	Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)				[%]		66%	69%	73%
	Wholesale distribution (new brand)				[%]		69.00%	68.50%	68.00%	68.48%
	***				[units]		192,173	203,089	219,934	615,197
KPI 8:	Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)				[units]	496,000	476,160	476,160	476,160
1	Marketing costs
			Payment	Payment increase
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Local Advertising		$ 35,000	1.11	1.2
	Trade Shows		$ 3,000	1.11	1.2
	Total		$38,000	$42,180	$50,616

2	Product Name & Description
				Variable Costs
				Material	Labor	Others	Price	Units	Cut off point	Weight	Weight	Height	Diameter
	Product ID	Distribution	Name	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(Pints)		(lb)	(full) (lb)	(inches)	(inches)
	BR01-01	[retail]	Pilsner	0.28	0.10	0.15	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05	0	0	0
	BR01-02	[retail]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.10	0.15	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05	0	0	0
	BR01-03	[retail]	Light Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-04	[retail]	Red Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-05	[retail]	Pale Ale	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-06	[retail]	Bock Dark	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-07	[wholesale]	Pilsner	0.28	0.80	0.13	$1.25	1	0.8	130.8	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-08	[wholesale]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.80	0.13	$1.28	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23.3	16
	BR01-09	[retail]	Special Offer	0.27	0.10	0.15	$3.00	1	1	1.05	0	0	0
3	Targeted Market Size (per product and FY)
				FY-1				FY-2				FY-3
		[retail]	100%	86,339			100%	93,391			100%	103,499
		[wholesale]			100%	192,173			100%	203,089			100%	219,934
	Product ID	Distribution
	BR01-01	[retail]	23.00%	19857.9			24.00%	22413.9			23.00%	23804.7
	BR01-02	[retail]	25.00%	21584.7			23.00%	21480.0			22.00%	22769.7
	BR01-03	[retail]	14.00%	12087.4			14.00%	13074.8			15.00%	15524.8
	BR01-04	[retail]	12.00%	10360.6			13.00%	12140.9			13.00%	13454.8
	BR01-05	[retail]	12.00%	10360.6			13.00%	12140.9			13.00%	13454.8
	BR01-06	[retail]	14.00%	12087.4			13.00%	12140.9			14.00%	14489.8
	BR01-07	[wholesale]			45.00%	86477.9			48.00%	97482.7			50.00%	109967.2
	BR01-08	[wholesale]			55.00%	105695.2			52.00%	105606.3			50.00%	109967.2
	BR01-09	[retail]	0.00%	0.0			0.00%	0.0			0.00%	0.0

4	Sales Projections (business unit: next 36 months of operations)
	Year/Month		BR01-01	BR01-02	BR01-03	BR01-04	BR01-05	BR01-06	BR01-07	BR01-08	BR01-09
			[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	FY-1		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	6.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	99.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,390	1,295	604	518	518	604	4,324	5,285	0
	Feb		1,390	1,295	604	518	518	604	4,324	5,285	0
	Mar		1,390	1,295	725	622	622	725	5,189	6,342	0
	Apr		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	7,399	0
	May		1,589	1,727	967	829	829	967	6,918	8,456	0
	Jun		1,986	2,158	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,648	10,570	0
	Jul		1,986	2,158	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,648	10,570	0
	Aug		1,986	2,374	1,450	1,243	1,243	1,450	10,377	12,683	0
	Sep		1,986	2,374	1,450	1,243	1,243	1,450	10,377	12,683	0
	Oct		1,986	2,374	1,330	1,140	1,140	1,330	9,513	11,626	0
	Nov		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	7,399	0
	Dec		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	6,342	0
	Tot		19,858	21,585	12,087	10,361	10,361	12,087	86,478	105,695	0
	[kegs]								70	85
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.0	0.0
	Feb	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.0	0.0
	Mar	11.0	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	5.0	0.0
	Apr	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	May	15.0	1.3	1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.6	0.0
	Jun	22.0	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.5	8.3	0.0
	Jul	22.0	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.5	8.3	0.0
	Aug	26.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.4	10.1	0.0
	Sep	26.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.4	10.1	0.0
	Oct	24.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.4	9.1	0.0
	Nov	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	Dec	12.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	4.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	19,858	21,585	12,087	10,361	10,361	12,087	86,478	104,638	0
Total Supply		[units]	19,128	20,972	6,200	6,200	6,200	6,200	83,792	101,788	0
Excess Demand		[units]	730	613	5,887	4,161	4,161	5,887	2,686	2,850	0
	FY-2		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,569	1,289	654	607	607	607	4,874	5,280	0
	Feb		1,569	1,289	654	607	607	607	4,874	5,280	0
	Mar		1,569	1,289	784	728	728	728	5,849	6,336	0
	Apr		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	May		1,793	1,718	1,046	971	971	971	7,799	8,449	0
	Jun		2,241	2,148	1,307	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,748	10,561	0
	Jul		2,241	2,148	1,307	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,748	10,561	0
	Aug		2,241	2,363	1,569	1,457	1,457	1,457	11,698	12,673	0
	Sep		2,241	2,363	1,569	1,457	1,457	1,457	11,698	12,673	0
	Oct		2,241	2,363	1,438	1,335	1,335	1,335	10,723	11,617	0
	Nov		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	Dec		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	Tot		22,414	21,480	13,075	12,141	12,141	12,141	97,483	105,606	0
	[kegs]								79	85
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Feb	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Mar	12.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.7	5.0	0.0
	Apr	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	May	16.0	1.3	1.4	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.6	0.0
	Jun	23.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.3	8.3	0.0
	Jul	23.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.3	8.3	0.0
	Aug	27.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	10.1	0.0
	Sep	27.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	10.1	0.0
	Oct	25.0	1.7	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.3	9.1	0.0
	Nov	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	Dec	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	22,414	21,480	13,075	12,141	12,141	12,141	97,483	105,606	0
Total Supply		[units]	21,091	20,942	7,440	6,200	6,200	6,200	91,749	103,058	0
Excess Demand		[units]	1,323	538	5,635	5,941	5,941	5,941	5,734	2,548	0
	FY-3		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,666	1,366	776	673	673	724	5,498	5,498	0
	Feb		1,666	1,366	776	673	673	724	5,498	5,498	0
	Mar		1,666	1,366	931	807	807	869	6,598	6,598	0
	Apr		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	May		1,904	1,822	1,242	1,076	1,076	1,159	8,797	8,797	0
	Jun		2,380	2,277	1,552	1,345	1,345	1,449	10,997	10,997	0
	Jul		2,380	2,277	1,552	1,345	1,345	1,449	10,997	10,997	0
	Aug		2,380	2,505	1,863	1,615	1,615	1,739	13,196	13,196	0
	Sep		2,380	2,505	1,863	1,615	1,615	1,739	13,196	13,196	0
	Oct		2,380	2,505	1,708	1,480	1,480	1,594	12,096	12,096	0
	Nov		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	Dec		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	Tot		23,805	22,770	15,525	13,455	13,455	14,490	109,967	109,967	0
	[kegs]								89	89
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Feb	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Mar	12.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.8	5.0	0.0
	Apr	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
	May	20.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.6	6.6	0.0
	Jun	24.0	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.2	8.3	0.0
	Jul	24.0	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.2	8.3	0.0
	Aug	28.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	10.2	10.1	0.0
	Sep	28.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	10.2	10.1	0.0
	Oct	26.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	9.1	0.0
	Nov	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
	Dec	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	23,805	22,770	15,525	13,455	13,455	14,490	109,967	109,967	0
Total Supply		[units]	21,987	21,254	11,160	7,440	7,440	11,160	102,013	102,746	0
Excess Demand		[units]	1,818	1,516	4,365	6,015	6,015	3,330	7,954	7,221	0
			BR01-01	BR01-02	BR01-03	BR01-04	BR01-05	BR01-06	BR01-07	BR01-08	BR01-09
			[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	FY-1	Jan	1,207	1,220	0	0	0	0	3,753	4,980	0
	FY-1	Feb	1,207	1,220	0	0	0	0	3,753	4,980	470
	FY-1	Mar	1,310	1,262	0	0	0	0	4,890	6,178	0
	FY-1	Apr	1,389	1,472	0	0	0	0	6,051	7,208	0
	FY-1	May	1,589	1,682	0	0	0	0	6,918	8,238	173
	FY-1	Jun	1,853	2,103	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,067	10,297	470
	FY-1	Jul	1,853	2,103	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,067	10,297	470
	FY-1	Aug	1,986	2,346	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,377	12,534	37
	FY-1	Sep	1,986	2,346	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,377	12,534	37
	FY-1	Oct	1,927	2,313	1,240	1,140	1,140	1,240	9,233	11,327	201
	FY-1	Nov	1,389	1,472	0	0	0	0	6,051	7,208	0
	FY-1	Dec	1,389	1,432	0	0	0	0	6,051	6,008	0
	FY-2	Jan	1,510	1,216	0	0	0	0	4,690	4,984	0
	FY-2	Feb	1,510	1,216	0	0	0	0	4,690	4,984	0
	FY-2	Mar	1,569	1,258	0	0	0	0	5,849	6,182	22
	FY-2	Apr	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-2	May	1,623	1,677	1,046	0	0	0	7,057	8,243	194
	FY-2	Jun	2,086	2,096	1,240	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,074	10,304	78
	FY-2	Jul	2,086	2,096	1,240	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,074	10,304	78
	FY-2	Aug	2,193	2,338	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,447	12,542	0
	FY-2	Sep	2,193	2,338	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,447	12,542	0
	FY-2	Oct	2,144	2,305	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,256	11,335	0
	FY-2	Nov	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-2	Dec	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-3	Jan	1,442	1,234	0	0	0	0	4,758	4,966	0
	FY-3	Feb	1,442	1,234	0	0	0	0	4,758	4,966	0
	FY-3	Mar	1,500	1,276	0	0	0	0	5,940	6,164	0
	FY-3	Apr	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
	FY-3	May	1,765	1,702	1,240	1,076	1,076	1,159	8,155	8,218	408
	FY-3	Jun	2,207	2,127	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,193	10,273	0
	FY-3	Jul	2,207	2,127	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,193	10,273	0
	FY-3	Aug	2,274	2,374	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	12,606	12,506	0
	FY-3	Sep	2,274	2,374	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	12,606	12,506	0
	FY-3	Oct	2,243	2,340	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,397	11,300	0
	FY-3	Nov	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
	FY-3	Dec	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379

&8BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

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Inn-Mgt

1	Product Name & Description
				Variable Costs
				Material	Labor	Others	Price	Units	Cut off point	Weight	Weight	Height	Diameter
	Product ID	Distribution	Name	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(Pints)		(lb)	(full) (lb)	(inches)	(inches)
	BR01-01	[retail]	Pilsner	0.28	0.10	0.15	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-02	[retail]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.10	0.15	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-03	[retail]	Light Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-04	[retail]	Red Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-05	[retail]	Pale Ale	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-06	[retail]	Bock Dark	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-07	[wholesale]	Pilsner	0.28	0.80	0.13	$1.25	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-08	[wholesale]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.80	0.13	$1.28	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23.3	16
	BR01-09	[retail]	Special Offer	0.27	0.10	0.15	$3.00	1	1

&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

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1	Forecast for the next three years
				Variable Costs
				Material	Labor	Others	Price	Units	Cut off point	Weight	Weight	Height	Diameter
	Product ID	Distribution	Name	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(per unit)	(Pints)		(lb)	(full) (lb)	(inches)	(inches)
	BR01-01	[retail]	Pilsner	0.28	0.10	0.15	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-02	[retail]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.10	0.15	$4.00	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-03	[retail]	Light Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-04	[retail]	Red Wheat	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-05	[retail]	Pale Ale	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-06	[retail]	Bock Dark	0.25	0.10	0.15	$3.50	1	0.8	1.05
	BR01-07	[wholesale]	Pilsner	0.28	0.80	0.13	$1.25	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23,3	16
	BR01-08	[wholesale]	Bavarian Lager	0.28	0.80	0.13	$1.28	124	0.8	130.8	160.5	23.3	16
	BR01-09	[retail]	Special Offer	0.27	0.10	0.15	$3.00	1	1
2	Targeted Market Size (per product and FY)
				FY-1				FY-2				FY-3
		[retail]	100%	86,339			100%	93,391			100%	103,499
		[wholesale]			100%	192,173			100%	203,089			100%	219,934
	Product ID	Distribution
	BR01-01	[retail]	23%	19857.9			24%	22413.9			23%	23804.8
	BR01-02	[retail]	25%	21584.7			23%	21480.0			22%	22769.8
	BR01-03	[retail]	14%	12087.4			14%	13074.8			15%	15524.9
	BR01-04	[retail]	12%	10360.6			13%	12140.9			13%	13454.9
	BR01-05	[retail]	12%	10360.6			13%	12140.9			13%	13454.9
	BR01-06	[retail]	14%	12087.4			13%	12140.9			14%	14489.9
	BR01-07	[wholesale]			45%	86477.9			48%	97482.7			50%	109967.0
	BR01-08	[wholesale]			55%	105695.2			52%	105606.3			50%	109967.0
	BR01-09	[retail]	0	0.0			0	0.0			0	0.0
3	Sales Projections (business unit: next 36 months of operations)
	Year/Month		BR01-01	BR01-02	BR01-03	BR01-04	BR01-05	BR01-06	BR01-07	BR01-08	BR01-09
			[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	FY-1		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	6.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	99.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,390	1,295	604	518	518	604	4,324	5,285	0
	Feb		1,390	1,295	604	518	518	604	4,324	5,285	0
	Mar		1,390	1,295	725	622	622	725	5,189	6,342	0
	Apr		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	7,399	0
	May		1,589	1,727	967	829	829	967	6,918	8,456	0
	Jun		1,986	2,158	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,648	10,570	0
	Jul		1,986	2,158	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,648	10,570	0
	Aug		1,986	2,374	1,450	1,243	1,243	1,450	10,377	12,683	0
	Sep		1,986	2,374	1,450	1,243	1,243	1,450	10,377	12,683	0
	Oct		1,986	2,374	1,330	1,140	1,140	1,330	9,513	11,626	0
	Nov		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	7,399	0
	Dec		1,390	1,511	846	725	725	846	6,053	6,342	0
	Tot		19,858	21,585	12,087	10,361	10,361	12,087	86,478	105,695	0
	[kegs]								70	85
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.0	0.0
	Feb	9.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	4.0	0.0
	Mar	11.0	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	5.0	0.0
	Apr	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	May	15.0	1.3	1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.6	0.0
	Jun	22.0	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.5	8.3	0.0
	Jul	22.0	1.5	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.5	8.3	0.0
	Aug	26.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.4	10.1	0.0
	Sep	26.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.4	10.1	0.0
	Oct	24.0	1.6	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.4	9.1	0.0
	Nov	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	Dec	12.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	4.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	19,858	21,585	12,087	10,361	10,361	12,087	86,478	105,695	- 0
Total Supply		[units]	19,128	20,972	6,200	6,200	6,200	6,200	83,792	101,788	0
Excess Demand		[units]	730	613	5,887	4,161	4,161	5,887	2,686	3,907	0
	FY-2		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,569	1,289	654	607	607	607	4,874	5,280	0
	Feb		1,569	1,289	654	607	607	607	4,874	5,280	0
	Mar		1,569	1,289	784	728	728	728	5,849	6,336	0
	Apr		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	May		1,793	1,718	1,046	971	971	971	7,799	8,449	0
	Jun		2,241	2,148	1,307	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,748	10,561	0
	Jul		2,241	2,148	1,307	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,748	10,561	0
	Aug		2,241	2,363	1,569	1,457	1,457	1,457	11,698	12,673	0
	Sep		2,241	2,363	1,569	1,457	1,457	1,457	11,698	12,673	0
	Oct		2,241	2,363	1,438	1,335	1,335	1,335	10,723	11,617	0
	Nov		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	Dec		1,569	1,504	915	850	850	850	6,824	7,392	0
	Tot		22,414	21,480	13,075	12,141	12,141	12,141	97,483	105,606	0
	[kegs]								79	85
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Feb	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Mar	12.0	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.7	5.0	0.0
	Apr	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	May	16.0	1.3	1.4	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.6	0.0
	Jun	23.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.3	8.3	0.0
	Jul	23.0	1.7	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	7.3	8.3	0.0
	Aug	27.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	10.1	0.0
	Sep	27.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	10.1	0.0
	Oct	25.0	1.7	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.3	9.1	0.0
	Nov	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
	Dec	13.0	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	5.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	22,414	21,480	13,075	12,141	12,141	12,141	97,483	105,606	- 0
Total Supply		[units]	21,091	20,942	7,440	6,200	6,200	6,200	91,749	103,058	0
Excess Demand		[units]	1,323	538	5,635	5,941	5,941	5,941	5,734	2,548	0
	FY-3		Percent Monthly Demand by Year
	Jan		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Feb		7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%
	Mar		7.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%	6.00%
	Apr		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	May		8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
	Jun		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Jul		10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
	Aug		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Sep		10.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
	Oct		10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
	Nov		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Dec		7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%
	Tot		100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%
			Demanded Quantity per Month
	Jan		1,666	1,366	776	673	673	724	5,498	5,498	0
	Feb		1,666	1,366	776	673	673	724	5,498	5,498	0
	Mar		1,666	1,366	931	807	807	869	6,598	6,598	0
	Apr		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	May		1,904	1,822	1,242	1,076	1,076	1,159	8,797	8,797	0
	Jun		2,380	2,277	1,552	1,345	1,345	1,449	10,997	10,997	0
	Jul		2,380	2,277	1,552	1,345	1,345	1,449	10,997	10,997	0
	Aug		2,380	2,505	1,863	1,615	1,615	1,739	13,196	13,196	0
	Sep		2,380	2,505	1,863	1,615	1,615	1,739	13,196	13,196	0
	Oct		2,380	2,505	1,708	1,480	1,480	1,594	12,096	12,096	0
	Nov		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	Dec		1,666	1,594	1,087	942	942	1,014	7,698	7,698	0
	Tot		23,805	22,770	15,525	13,455	13,455	14,490	109,967	109,967	0
	[kegs]								89	89
		Total	Number of Tanks to Produce and Serve
	Jan	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Feb	10.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	4.0	0.0
	Mar	12.0	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.8	5.0	0.0
	Apr	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
	May	20.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.6	6.6	0.0
	Jun	24.0	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.2	8.3	0.0
	Jul	24.0	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8.2	8.3	0.0
	Aug	28.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	10.2	10.1	0.0
	Sep	28.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	10.2	10.1	0.0
	Oct	26.0	1.8	1.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	9.2	9.1	0.0
	Nov	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
	Dec	16.0	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.8	5.8	0.0
Total Demand		[units]	23,805	22,770	15,525	13,455	13,455	14,490	109967	109967	0
Total Supply		[units]	21,987	21,254	11,160	7,440	7,440	11,160	102,013	102,746	0
Excess Demand		[units]	1,817	1,516	4,365	6,015	6,015	3,330	7,954	7,221	0
			BR01-01	BR01-02	BR01-03	BR01-04	BR01-05	BR01-06	BR01-07	BR01-08	BR01-09
			[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[retail]	[wholesale]	[wholesale]	[retail]
	FY-1	Jan	1,207	1,220	0	0	0	0	3,753	4,980	0
	FY-1	Feb	1,207	1,220	0	0	0	0	3,753	4,980	470
	FY-1	Mar	1,310	1,262	0	0	0	0	4,890	6,178	0
	FY-1	Apr	1,389	1,472	0	0	0	0	6,051	7,208	0
	FY-1	May	1,589	1,682	0	0	0	0	6,918	8,238	173
	FY-1	Jun	1,853	2,103	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,067	10,297	470
	FY-1	Jul	1,853	2,103	1,209	1,036	1,036	1,209	8,067	10,297	470
	FY-1	Aug	1,986	2,346	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,377	12,534	37
	FY-1	Sep	1,986	2,346	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,377	12,534	37
	FY-1	Oct	1,927	2,313	1,240	1,140	1,140	1,240	9,233	11,327	201
	FY-1	Nov	1,389	1,472	0	0	0	0	6,051	7,208	0
	FY-1	Dec	1,389	1,432	0	0	0	0	6,051	6,008	0
	FY-2	Jan	1,510	1,216	0	0	0	0	4,690	4,984	0
	FY-2	Feb	1,510	1,216	0	0	0	0	4,690	4,984	0
	FY-2	Mar	1,569	1,258	0	0	0	0	5,849	6,182	22
	FY-2	Apr	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-2	May	1,623	1,677	1,046	0	0	0	7,057	8,243	194
	FY-2	Jun	2,086	2,096	1,240	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,074	10,304	78
	FY-2	Jul	2,086	2,096	1,240	1,214	1,214	1,214	9,074	10,304	78
	FY-2	Aug	2,193	2,338	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,447	12,542	0
	FY-2	Sep	2,193	2,338	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,447	12,542	0
	FY-2	Oct	2,144	2,305	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,256	11,335	0
	FY-2	Nov	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-2	Dec	1,391	1,467	0	0	0	0	6,049	7,213	0
	FY-3	Jan	1,442	1,234	0	0	0	0	4,758	4,966	0
	FY-3	Feb	1,442	1,234	0	0	0	0	4,758	4,966	0
	FY-3	Mar	1,500	1,276	0	0	0	0	5,940	6,164	0
	FY-3	Apr	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
	FY-3	May	1,765	1,702	1,240	1,076	1,076	1,159	8,155	8,218	408
	FY-3	Jun	2,207	2,127	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,193	10,273	0
	FY-3	Jul	2,207	2,127	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	10,193	10,273	0
	FY-3	Aug	2,274	2,374	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	12,606	12,506	0
	FY-3	Sep	2,274	2,374	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	12,606	12,506	0
	FY-3	Oct	2,243	2,340	1,240	1,240	1,240	1,240	11,397	11,300	0
	FY-3	Nov	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379
	FY-3	Dec	1,545	1,489	1,087	0	0	1,014	7,135	7,191	379

&8BU MET AD715 OL:Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved

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Force Calculation

Fin-Mgt

1	Employees
				Salary increase
	Position	Budget	Number	FY-2	FY-3
	Office Assistants	$ 25,000	1	1.11	1.2
	Salesmen	$ 67,500	1.5	1.11	1.2
	Executive Salaries	$ 32,500	0.5	1.11	1.2
	Miscellaneous (Consultants)	$ 5,000		1.11	1.2
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total	$130,000	$144,300	$173,160
2	Utilities, Supplies and other
		Payment	Payment increase
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Leasing of cars, computers, etc	$ 8,000	1.11	1.2
	Office Supply	$ 4,000	1.11	1.2
	Heat, Light, Phone	$ 7,000	1.11	1.2
	Insurance	$ 7,000	1.11	1.2
	Depreciation	$ - 0	ERROR:#DIV/0!	ERROR:#DIV/0!
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total	$26,000	ERROR:#DIV/0!	ERROR:#DIV/0!
3	Marketing costs
		Payment	Payment increase
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Local Advertising	$ 35,000	1.11	1.2
	Trade Shows	$ 3,000	1.11	1.2
	Total	$38,000	$42,180	$50,616
4	Rent
				Payment increase
		Payment	Space (ft^2)	FY-2	FY-3
	Office	$ 5,000	200	1.11	1.2
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total	$5,000	$5,550	$6,660
5	Debt
		FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Loan	Amount	Interest rate	length (months)	payments/year	Date start
	Bank of America	$40,000	10.0%	36	12	FY-1 Jan
	Citizen	$20,000	8.0%	24	24	FY-1 Feb
	Total Debt	$60,000
	Payment	$25,297	$26,198	$16,292
	Private Investment	$150,000
6	Taxes
	Taxes type	Percentage
	Profit	35.00%
7	Fees
	Type	Ammount
	Total
7	Financial Market Indicators
			Percentage
	Expected Return on Investment		5.0%
	Risk-Free Interest rate		1.0%

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Change Underlying Cycle

Force Calculation

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Org-Mgt

Human Resources
1	Employees
					Salary increase
	Position		Budget	Number	FY-2	FY-3
	Office Assistants		$25,000	1	1.11	1.2
	Salesmen		$67,500	1.5	1.11	1.11
	Executive Salaries		$32,500	0.5	1.11	1.2
	Miscellaneous (Consultants)		$5,000		1.11	1.2
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total		$130,000	$144,300	$166,417
Miscellaneous
2	Utilities, Supplies and other
			Payment	Payment increase
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Leasing of cars, computers, etc		$ 8,000	1.11	1.2
	Office Supply		$ 4,000	1.11	1.2
	Heat, Light, Phone		$ 7,000	1.11	1.2
	Insurance		$ 7,000	1.11	1.2
	Depreciation		$ 12,000	1.11	1.2
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total		$38,000	$42,180	$50,616
3	Rent
					Payment increase
			Payment	Space (ft^2)	FY-2	FY-3
	Office		$ 5,000	200	1.11	1.2
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3
	Total		$5,000	$5,550	$6,660
2	Employees' Compensation
			market research	salary increase in %		FY-1		FY-2		FY-3
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	# people hired	budget	# people hired	budget	# people hired	budget
	Critical Salesmen	min	$26,000
		base	$30,000	2.00%	1.00%	1	$30,000	1.5	$45,900	1	$30,906
		market research	$28,000
		max	$32,000
	Salesmen	min	$23,000
		base	$24,000	1.00%	1.50%	1	$24,000	1.5	$36,360	1.5	$36,905
		market research	$25,000
		max	$27,000
				Total sum		2	$54,000	3	$82,260	2.5	$67,811
						1.5	$67,500		$74,925		$83,167
				Surplus		-0.5	$13,500		-$7,335		$15,355
3	Workers' Compensation
			market research	salary increase in %		FY-1		FY-2		FY-3
			FY-1	FY-2	FY-3	# people hired	budget	# people hired	budget	# people hired	budget
	Critical Workers	min	$25,000
		base	$30,000	1.00%	2.00%	1	$30,000	1	$30,300	1	$30,906
		market research	$29,000
		max	$32,000
	Workers	min	$15,000
		base	$20,000	1.50%	1.00%	1.5	$30,000	1	$20,300	2	$41,006
		market research	$20,000
		max	$22,000
				Total sum		2.5	$60,000	2	$50,600	3	$71,912
				Cost of labor			$0		$0		$0
				Surplus			-$60,000		-$50,600		-$71,912

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Change Underlying Cycle

Force Calculations

Impl-Plan

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN: recommended steps for the next nine months (an example)
	Task Name	Duration	Start	Finish	Predecessors
1	Prepare Mission, Value, Vision (MVV) statements	5 days	1/5/15 8:00	1/9/15 17:00
1.1	Mission Statement	5 days	1/5/15 8:00	1/9/15 17:00
1.2	Value Statement	5 days	1/5/15 8:00	1/9/15 17:00
1.3	Vision Statement	5 days	1/5/15 8:00	1/9/15 17:00
2	Define Goals and Objectives	2 days	1/12/15 8:00	1/13/15 17:00	1
2.1	Financial	2 days	1/12/15 8:00	1/13/15 17:00
2.2	Non-Financial	2 days	1/12/15 8:00	1/13/15 17:00
3	Define INTERNAL Strategy-Shaping Factors	5 days	1/14/15 8:00	1/20/15 17:00	5
4	Define EXTERNAL Strategy-Shaping Factors	5 days	1/21/15 8:00	1/27/15 17:00	8
5	Select a BUSINESS STRATEGY of the company	5 days	1/27/15 17:00	2/3/15 17:00	9
	(Work with 'Project-Start')	0 days	1/27/15 17:00	1/27/15 17:00
5.1	Prepare different scenario developments	1 day	1/28/15 8:00	1/28/15 17:00
5.2	Identify and Evaluate STRATEGY ALTERNATIVES	2 days	1/29/15 8:00	1/30/15 17:00	12
5.2.1	Resources for alternative 1	0 days	1/30/15 17:00	1/30/15 17:00	13
5.2.2	Resources for alternative 2	0 days	1/30/15 17:00	1/30/15 17:00	13
5.2.3	Resources for alternative 3	0 days	1/30/15 17:00	1/30/15 17:00	13
5.3	Define criteria for comparison/evaluation	1 day	2/2/15 8:00	2/2/15 17:00	14,15,16
5.4	Select a BUSINESS STRATEGY of the company	1 day	2/3/15 8:00	2/3/15 17:00	17
6	Prepare functional Strategy MARKETING	5 days	2/4/15 8:00	2/10/15 17:00	10
6.1	Work with 'Mktg-Mgt'	2 days	2/4/15 8:00	2/5/15 17:00
6.2	Analyze the outputs	2 days	2/6/15 8:00	2/9/15 17:00	20
6.3	('36-Mo-Fin-Pr'; 'Performance'; 'D-Analysis')	0 days	2/9/15 17:00	2/9/15 17:00	21
6.4	Apply other Decision Support Tools	1 day	2/10/15 8:00	2/10/15 17:00	21
6.5	(Optimization Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, others)	0 days	2/10/15 17:00	2/10/15 17:00	23
7	Prepare functional Strategy INNOVATION	5 days	2/3/15 17:00	2/10/15 17:00	10
7.1	Work with 'Inn-Mgt'	2 days	2/5/15 8:00	2/6/15 17:00
7.2	Analyze the outputs	2 days	2/9/15 8:00	2/10/15 17:00	26
7.3	('36-Mo-Fin-Pr'; 'Performance'; 'D-Analysis')	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
7.4	Apply other Decision Support Tools	1 day	2/11/15 8:00	2/11/15 17:00	27
7.5	(Optimization Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, others)	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
8	Prepare functional Strategy OPERATIONS	5 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/11/15 17:00	10
8.1	Work with 'Oper-Mgt'	2 days	2/5/15 8:00	2/6/15 17:00
8.2	Analyze the outputs	2 days	2/9/15 8:00	2/10/15 17:00	32
8.3	('36-Mo-Fin-Pr'; 'Performance'; 'D-Analysis')	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
8.4	Apply other Decision Support Tools	1 day	2/11/15 8:00	2/11/15 17:00	33
8.5	(Optimization Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Risk Analysis, others)	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
9	Prepare functional Strategy Finance	5 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/11/15 17:00	10
9.1	Work with 'Fin-Mgt'	2 days	2/5/15 8:00	2/6/15 17:00
9.2	Analyze the outputs	2 days	2/9/15 8:00	2/10/15 17:00	38
9.3	('36-Mo-Fin-Pr'; 'Performance'; 'D-Analysis')	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
9.4	Apply other Decision Support Tools	1 day	2/11/15 8:00	2/11/15 17:00	39
9.5	(Optimization Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Risk Analysis, others)	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
10	Prepare functional Strategy HR & ORGANIZATIONAL	5 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/11/15 17:00	10
10.1	Work with 'Org-Mgt'	2 days	2/5/15 8:00	2/6/15 17:00
10.2	Analyze the outputs	2 days	2/9/15 8:00	2/10/15 17:00	44
10.3	('36-Mo-Fin-Pr'; 'Performance'; 'D-Analysis')	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
10.4	Apply other Decision Support Tools	1 day	2/11/15 8:00	2/11/15 17:00	45
10.5	(Optimization Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Risk Analysis, others)	0 days	2/4/15 17:00	2/4/15 17:00
11	Action Plan	155 days	2/12/15 8:00	9/16/15 17:00	43,19,25,31,37
11.1	Prepare a Business Plan for the New Project & related	10 days	2/12/15 8:00	2/25/15 17:00
11.1.1	Prepare a first draft of the Business Plan for the New Project	2 days	2/12/15 8:00	2/13/15 17:00
11.1.2	Discuss the first draft internally (in your company)	2 days	2/16/15 8:00	2/17/15 17:00	51
11.1.3	Discuss the first draft with potential investors (fin-institutions)	2 days	2/18/15 8:00	2/19/15 17:00	52
11.2	Modify the initial Request for Quotation	1 day	2/20/15 8:00	2/20/15 17:00	53
11.2.1	Negotiate changes with the seller (if needed)	2 days	2/23/15 8:00	2/24/15 17:00	54
11.3	Contact your financial institution (bank, private investor)	7 days	2/12/15 8:00	2/20/15 17:00
11.3.1	Negotiate final conditions for the financing of the project	2 days	2/23/15 8:00	2/24/15 17:00	56
11.3.2	Prepare all additional/requested documents	2 days	2/23/15 8:00	2/24/15 17:00	56
11.4	Prepare and send a Purchase Order to the Seller	1 day	2/25/15 8:00	2/25/15 17:00	58
11.4.1	Receive confirmation from seller	5 days	2/26/15 8:00	3/4/15 17:00	59
11.5	Sign a commercial contract with the Seller	1 day	3/5/15 8:00	3/5/15 17:00	60
11.6	Make a payment to the Seller (for the new technology)	1 day	3/5/15 8:00	3/5/15 17:00	60
11.7	Prepare the site for the installation of the new technology	30 days	3/6/15 8:00	4/16/15 17:00	62,61
11.8	Instalation of the technology (by the Seller)	10 days	4/17/15 8:00	4/30/15 17:00	63
11.9	Hiring of new personnel	30 days	3/6/15 8:00	4/16/15 17:00	62,61
11.9.1	Training of the new personnel	10 days	4/17/15 8:00	4/30/15 17:00	65
11.10	Contracts with wholesale buyers of the new products (kegs)	40 days	3/6/15 8:00	4/30/15 17:00	62,61
11.11	Advertising Campaign	90 days	3/6/15 8:00	7/9/15 17:00	61
11.11.1	Design	10 days	3/6/15 8:00	3/19/15 17:00	62,61
11.11.2	Execution	80 days	3/20/15 8:00	7/9/15 17:00	69
11.12	Launch the BrewPub	0 days	5/1/15 8:00	5/1/15 8:00	64,66
11.12.1	First month of operation	30 days	5/1/15 8:00	6/11/15 17:00	71
11.12.2	Second month of operation	30 days	6/12/15 8:00	7/23/15 17:00	72
11.12.3	Third month of operation	30 days	7/24/15 8:00	9/3/15 17:00	73
11.12.4	Evaluation of the results: First Quarter of Operation	2 days	9/4/15 8:00	9/7/15 17:00	74
11.12.5	Evaluation of the Compatitive Advantages	2 days	9/8/15 8:00	9/9/15 17:00	75
11.12.6	Plans for the next 12 months of operations	5 days	9/10/15 8:00	9/16/15 17:00	76

&8&F &8&A &8Page: &P of &N

1. Simulation software: installation requirements

2. Layouts

3. Tab Sim-Navigator

4. Task List

5. Force Calculation

6. Submit Results

7. Choose cycle to calculate

8. Create Financial Report

9. Go Back to Sim-Navigator

10. Indicator: Current Cycle

11. Help

1. Simulation software: installation requirements

2. Layouts

3. Tab Sim-Navigator

4. Task List

5. Force Calculation

6. Submit Results

7. Choose cycle to calculate

8. Create Financial Report

9. Go Back to Sim-Navigator

10. Indicator: Current Cycle

11. Help

Back to Oper-Mgt

Back to Fin-Mgt

Back to Org-Mgt

1. Key Success Indicators

2. Key Performance Indicators

3. Efficiency Ratios

4. Trend Analysis

1. Key Success Indicators

2. Key Performance Indicators

3. Efficiency Ratios

4. Trend Analysis

1. Sales Projections

2. Prices and Variable Costs per product

3. Annual Fixed Costs

4. 12 month Proforma

5. Financial Summary

1. Sales Projections

2. Prices and Variable Costs per product

3. Annual Fixed Costs

4. 12 month Proforma

5. Financial Summary

1. Break-Even analysis

2. What-if Analysis

3. Sensitivity Analysis

4. Optimization Analysis

5. Risk Analysis

1. Break-Even analysis

2. What-if Analysis

3. Sensitivity Analysis

4. Optimization Analysis

5. Risk Analysis

1. Marketing Costs

2. Product Description

3. Targeted Market Size

4. Sales Projections

1. Marketing Costs

2. Product Description

3. Targeted Market Size

4. Sales Projections

1. Product Name & Description

1. Forecast for the next three years

2. Targeted Market size

3. Sales Projection

1. Forecast for the next three years

2. Targeted Market size

3. Sales Projection

1. Miscellaneous factors

2. Debt

1. Miscellaneous factors

2. Debt

1. Critical Success Factors

2. Key Performance Indicators

1. Critical Success Factors

2. Key Performance Indicators

1. Employees

2. Employee compensation

1. Employees

2. Employee compensation

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