MAT 540 Week 5 MIDTERM EXAM

Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
 

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An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

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A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
 

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A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

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Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

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A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

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The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

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Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
 

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Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

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In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

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The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

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Consider the following frequency of demand:
 
           
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

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Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

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Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

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A seed value is a(n)

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__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

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__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

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Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

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__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

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Consider the following graph of sales.
 

 
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
           
 
 If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

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 rob
 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 
 

 
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
 
What is the expected yield of the crop?

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__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

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__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

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A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

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A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

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The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
           
Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

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An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.
 
 The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

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An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
 
                                            Economic Condition
                        Poor           Average       Good        Excellent
    Investment      (S1)              (S2)           (S3)          (S4)
           A               50                  75              20              30
           B               80                  15              40              50
           C           -100                 300             -50              10     
           D               25                  25              25              25 
 
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

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The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
 
                       
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

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Consider the following distribution and random numbers:
 
If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.

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This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
 
             
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

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Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
              
 
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

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Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
 
                        Year    Demand           Forecast

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Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
 

 
 
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

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Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
 
           
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

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The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
 

 
 
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

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The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
 
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

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Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

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The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
 

 
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
 

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