comparable analysis

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DCFAnalysis_Template2.xls

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Investment Banking
Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts,
and Mergers & Acquisitions
DCF Analysis - Template
JOSHUA ROSENBAUM
JOSHUA PEARL

DCF

ValueCo Corporation
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
($ in millions, fiscal year ending December 31) Operating Scenario Base
Operating Scenario 1
Mid-Year Convention Y Historical Period CAGR Projection Period CAGR
2005 2006 2007 ('05 - '07) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ('08 - '13)
Sales -0 -0 -0 - -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -
% growth NA -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
COGS -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Gross Profit -0 -0 -0 - -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -
% margin -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
SG&A -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
EBITDA -0 -0 -0 - -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -
% margin -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Depreciation & Amortization -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
EBIT -0 -0 -0 - -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -
% margin -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Taxes -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
EBIAT -0 -0 -0 - -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Less: Capital Expenditures -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
WACC - %
Discount Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Discount Factor 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Present Value of Free Cash Flow -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Enterprise Value Implied Equity Value and Share Price Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Cumulative Present Value of FCF -0 Enterprise Value -0 Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2013E) -0
Less: Total Debt -0 WACC -0
Terminal Value Less: Preferred Securities -0 Terminal Value -0
Terminal Year EBITDA (2013E) -0 Less: Noncontrolling Interest -0
Exit Multiple - x Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents -0 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate - %
Terminal Value -0
Discount Factor 1.00 Implied Equity Value -0 Implied EV/EBITDA
Present Value of Terminal Value -0 Enterprise Value -0
% of Enterprise Value - % Implied Share Price -0 LTM 9/30/2008 EBITDA -0
Enterprise Value -0 Implied Share Price NA Implied EV/EBITDA - x
Enterprise Value Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x - % -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
WACC -1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 WACC -1.0% - % - % - % - % - %
-0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 -0.5% - % - % - % - % - %
0.0% 0 0 $0 0 0 0.0% - % - % - % - % - %
0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0.5% - % - % - % - % - %
1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 1.0% - % - % - % - % - %
Assumptions
Sales (% growth) NA - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
COGS (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
SG&A (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Capital Expenditures (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Tax Rate - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Working Capital (% sales) - % - % - % - % - %
ValueCo Corporation
Sensitivity Analysis
($ in millions)
Enterprise Value Implied Equity Value
Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
WACC -1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 WACC -1.0% 0 0 0 0 0
-0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 -0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
0.0% 0 0 $0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 $0 0 0
0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0
1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 1.0% 0 0 0 0 0
Implied Share Price PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value
Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
NA -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x - % -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
WACC -1.0% NA NA NA NA NA WACC -1.0% - % - % - % - % - %
-0.5% NA NA NA NA NA -0.5% - % - % - % - % - %
0.0% NA NA NA NA NA 0.0% - % - % - % - % - %
0.5% NA NA NA NA NA 0.5% - % - % - % - % - %
1.0% NA NA NA NA NA 1.0% - % - % - % - % - %
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA
Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
- % -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x - x -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x
WACC -1.0% - % - % - % - % - % WACC -1.0% - x - x - x - x - x
-0.5% - % - % - % - % - % -0.5% - x - x - x - x - x
0.0% - % - % - % - % - % 0.0% - x - x - x - x - x
0.5% - % - % - % - % - % 0.5% - x - x - x - x - x
1.0% - % - % - % - % - % 1.0% - x - x - x - x - x
Calculation of Implied Share Price
Enterprise Value -0
Less: Total Debt -0
Less: Preferred Securities -0
Less: Noncontrolling Interest -0
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents -0
Implied Equity Value -0
Options/Warrants
Number of Exercise In-the-Money
Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds
Options 1 -0 -0 -0 -0
Options 2 -0 -0 -0 -0
Options 3 -0 -0 -0 -0
Options 4 -0 -0 -0 -0
Options 5 -0 -0 -0 -0
Total -0 -0 -0
Basic Shares Outstanding -0
Plus: Shares from In-the-Money Options -0
Less: Shares Repurchased -0
Net New Shares from Options -0
Plus: Shares from Convertible Securities -0
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding -0
Implied Share Price -0

NWC

ValueCo Corporation
Working Capital Projections
($ in millions)
Historical Period Projection Period
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sales -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Cost of Goods Sold -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Inventories -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Prepaid Expenses and Other -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Total Current Assets -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Accrued Liabilities -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Other Current Liabilities -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Total Current Liabilities -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Net Working Capital -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
% sales -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
(Increase) / Decrease in NWC -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Assumptions
Days Sales Outstanding -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Days Inventory Held -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Days Payable Outstanding -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %

WACC

ValueCo Corporation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis
($ in millions)
WACC Calculation Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta
Target Capital Structure Predicted Market Market Debt/ Marginal Unlevered
Debt-to-Total Capitalization - % Company Levered Beta(4) Value of Debt Value of Equity Equity Tax Rate Beta
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 100.0% CompCo1 -0 -0 -0 - % - % -0
CompCo2 -0 -0 -0 - % - % -0
CompCo3 -0 -0 -0 - % - % -0
Cost of Debt CompCo4 -0 -0 -0 - % - % -0
Cost of Debt - % CompCo5 -0 -0 -0 - % - % -0
Tax Rate - %
After-tax Cost of Debt - % Mean -0 - % -0
Median -0 - % -0
Cost of Equity ValueCo Relevered Beta
Risk-free Rate(1) - % Mean Target Target
Market Risk Premium(2) - % Unlevered Debt/ Marginal Relevered
Levered Beta -0 Beta Equity Tax Rate Beta
Size Premium(3) - % Relevered Beta -0 - % - % -0
Cost of Equity - %
WACC Sensitivity Analysis
Pre-tax Cost of Debt
WACC - % Debt-to-Total Capitalization 0.0 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
-20.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
-10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10.0% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
20.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
(1) Interpolated yield on 20-year U.S. Treasury
(2) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook
(3) Low-Cap Decile size premium based on market capitalization, per Ibbotson
(4) Sourced from Barra

A1

`
Assumptions Page 1 - Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement
Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Income Statement Assumptions
Sales (% growth) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Cost of Goods Sold (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
SG&A (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Cash Flow Statement Assumptions
Capital Expenditures (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

A2

Assumptions Page 2 - Balance Sheet
Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current Assets
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Days Inventory Held (DIH) -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Prepaid and Other Current Assets (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Current Liabilities
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Base 1 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Management 2 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Upside 3 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 1 4 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0
Downside 2 5 - % - % - % - % - % -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

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Copyright © 2009 by Joshua Rosenbaum and Joshua Pearl. All rights reserved.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
ISBN-13 978-0-470-44220-3
Printed in the United States of America
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