project management
344SAM Project Management L4: Project Planning (Part 2)
Learning Outcomes
Explain the different approaches to estimating duration of tasks
Describe the different approaches used for planning projects (low level)
Critical Path Analysis
Gantt Charts
Re-cap from last lecture
Start of the planning process
Work breakdown structures (WBS)
You can use WBS to help to identify tasks
It can help to ensure the team understands the project scope
‘Draws a picture’ of task requirements
Dissertation
Identify Problem
Literature Review
Methodology
Data Gathering
Data Analysis
Conclusion
What
How
Why
Questionnaire
Interview
Case Study
Observation
Experiment
Questionnaire Design
Questionnaire Pilot
Questionnaire Correction
Allocating time to activities
Once a WBS is agreed, time can be allocated to each stage/task.
How do we estimate time?
Using historical data
Based upon past experience
Time the activity
Trial run
Impact of learning
Using a probabilistic method
With uncertainty/no experience
Weighted average technique
Based upon three estimates of duration for the activity:
Most optimistic (a)
Most likely (m)
Most pessimistic (b)
Weighted average = a + 4m + b
6
a = 24 hrs (most optimistic)
m = 48 hrs (most likely)
b = 96 hrs (most pessimistic)
WA = 24 + (4x48) + 96 = 52 hrs
6
Four simple questions
What can be done now?
What must you have done before that?
What can be done at the same time?
What must follow what you do now?
Importance of Sequential activities
Chicago Millennium Park
Delay: 4 years
Proposed cost: $150 million
Final cost: $482.4 million
Critical path analysis
Background
Developed in the late 1950’s by Remington Rand Univac
Improved the control of production to sales turnaround
Purpose
To calculate the longest sequence of dependent activities needed to complete the project
Use
Enables the PM to see the impact of delays/which activities can tolerate delays
Float highlights delay tolerance
Method
Two stages:
forward pass (earliest start)
reverse pass (latest start)
Activity boxes
| Earliest start time (ES) | Identifier number/code | Earliest finish time (EF) |
| Float (FL) | Activity descriptor | |
| Latest start time (LS) | Duration | Latest finish time (LF) |
Example (writing a book): organise activities
| A | ||
| Write draft | ||
| B | ||
| Type manuscript | ||
| C | ||
| Create drawings | ||
| D | ||
| Design cover | ||
| E | ||
| Collate | ||
| F | ||
| Earliest start time (ES) | Identifier number/code | Earliest finish time (EF) |
| Float (FL) | Activity descriptor | |
| Latest start time (LS) | Duration | Latest finish time (LF) |
Example (writing a book): organise activities
| A | ||
| Write draft | ||
| 20 |
| B | ||
| Type manuscript | ||
| 10 |
| C | ||
| Create drawings | ||
| 5 |
| D | ||
| Design cover | ||
| 2 |
| E | ||
| Collate | ||
| 6 |
| F | ||
| 5 |
| Earliest start time (ES) | Identifier number/code | Earliest finish time (EF) |
| Float (FL) | Activity descriptor | |
| Latest start time (LS) | Duration | Latest finish time (LF) |
Example (writing a book): Forward pass: ES + Duration = EF
| 0 | A | 20 |
| Write draft | ||
| 20 |
| 20 | B | 30 |
| Type manuscript | ||
| 10 |
| 20 | C | 25 |
| Create drawings | ||
| 5 |
| 20 | D | 22 |
| Design cover | ||
| 2 |
| 30 | E | 36 |
| Collate | ||
| 6 |
| 36 | F | 41 |
| 5 |
| Earliest start time (ES) | Identifier number/code | Earliest finish time (EF) |
| Float (FL) | Activity descriptor | |
| Latest start time (LS) | Duration | Latest finish time (LF) |
Example (writing a book): Backward pass: LF – Duration = LS
| 0 | A | 20 |
| Write draft | ||
| 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 20 | B | 30 |
| Type manuscript | ||
| 20 | 10 | 30 |
| 20 | C | 25 |
| Create drawings | ||
| 25 | 5 | 30 |
| 20 | D | 22 |
| Design cover | ||
| 28 | 2 | 30 |
| 30 | E | 36 |
| Collate | ||
| 30 | 6 | 36 |
| 36 | F | 41 |
| 36 | 5 | 41 |
| Earliest start time (ES) | Identifier number/code | Earliest finish time (EF) |
| Float (FL) | Activity descriptor | |
| Latest start time (LS) | Duration | Latest finish time (LF) |
Example (writing a book): determine slack = difference between LS and ES
| 0 | A | 20 |
| 0 | Write draft | |
| 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 20 | B | 30 |
| 0 | Type manuscript | |
| 20 | 10 | 30 |
| 20 | C | 25 |
| 5 | Create drawings | |
| 25 | 5 | 30 |
| 20 | D | 22 |
| 8 | Design cover | |
| 28 | 2 | 30 |
| 30 | E | 36 |
| 0 | Collate | |
| 30 | 6 | 36 |
| 36 | F | 41 |
| 0 | ||
| 36 | 5 | 41 |
| Earliest start time (ES) | Identifier number/code | Earliest finish time (EF) |
| Float (FL) | Activity descriptor | |
| Latest start time (LS) | Duration | Latest finish time (LF) |
Limitations to CPA
Sharing ‘slack’ with the team
Resources not visible
Can be visually complex on larger projects
Gantt Charts
Developed by Harvey Gantt in 1917
Most widely used planning tool by PMs
Show activities by calendar dates
Horizontal time line showing:
What should have been completed
Which activities should be in progress
What’s scheduled for the future
Predecessor & successor activities
Milestones
Project Gantt chart
Adding Resources
Gantt Charts
Easy to understand
Easy to continually update activities
Enables resources to be scheduled
Intuitive and easy to create
Basis for most project planning software
Limitations?
Gantt chart limitations
If all dependencies are added to the chart it may be overcrowded and difficult to read
All bars are the same thickness, suggesting similar workloads
Many activities are particularly front or back loaded, not as even as suggested by the bars
Unmanageable for very large projects
Gates and milestones
Phases/stages are punctuated by gates and milestones
These may correspond to completion of one or more project deliverables
e.g. in the development of a new concept car a milestone might be the completion of the engine design
Gates and milestones
What types of decisions need to be made when a project reaches a gate/milestone/end of stage?
If you were planning a project that would take 3 years to complete, how much detail would you go into?
Additional Information
Gantt chart software:
MS Project (available as a Microsoft product)
Project in a Box (free downloadable software)
http://www.projectinabox.org.uk/
Gantt Project (free downloadable software)
Problems in planning
Poorly defined scope
No WBS
Poor estimations
Poor communication
Procrastination
Trilogy Project
Scrapped in 2005
$170M
Three major components of a budget (APM 2012)
Base cost estimate
Resourcing
Accommodation
Consumables
Expenses
Capital items
Contingency
Identified risks
Management
Changes to scope of unidentified risks
Cost planning
Two basic approaches:
Top down – where you develop or set the total or top budget and then break it down into the component parts within that budget.
Bottom up – where you start with a list or plan or schedule of the things you want to do and then cost it up to get the total budget.
Cost estimations
Parametric
Works well when experienced in similar projects
E.g. highway development projects, office refurbishments
Forecasting
When little is known
More prone to change
Common with bid proposals
Considerations when budgeting
The base cost estimate
Outsourcing
Contingency
Direct and indirect costs
Fixed and variable costs
Currency fluctuations
Key factors in planning projects
1. Time
Timescales
Resources (will be discussed later)
Task dependencies
2. Cost
3. Quality (will be discussed later)
Recommended reading
Maylor, H. (2010) Project Management 4th ed. Essex: Prentice Hall (Chapter 5)
Pinto, J.K. (2013) Project Management: Achieving Competitive Advantage, 3rd edition, Harlow, Pearson (Chapters 9 and 10)
Online Self Study Task
References
APM (2012) APM Body of Knowledge. 6th ed. Bucks: APM
Lock, D. (2010) Project Management. 4th ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall
Maylor, H (2010) Project Management 4th ed. Essex: Prentice Hall
Office of Government Commerce (2009). Managing Successful Projects with PRINCE2: 2009 Edition . Norwich: TSO
Thanks!
Any questions?