Budgeting and Forcasting-Business Proposal wk 1-wk7

seasonal_variations_w2.xlsx

Seasonalization

Forecast of sales, including seasonal adjustment.
	y=	a + bx
	a=	246.884057971
	b=	1.0126086957
		Time x	Actual Sales (A) Jan-01 - Dec-02	Regression Forecast (F) y = a + bx	Seasonal Ratio (A)/(F)	Seasonal Forecast of Sales
Year	Month
		0		246.88
Year 1	Jan	1	245	247.90	0.99	245
	Feb	2	244	248.91	0.98	244
	Mar	3	250	249.92	1.00	250
	Apr	4	260	250.93	1.04	260
	May	5	265	251.95	1.05	265
	Jun	6	260	252.96	1.03	260
	Jul	7	255	253.97	1.00	255
	Aug	8	245	254.98	0.96	245
	Sep	9	240	256.00	0.94	240
	Oct	10	255	257.01	0.99	255
	Nov	11	265	258.02	1.03	265
	Dec	12	270	259.04	1.04	270
Year 2	Jan	13	250	260.05	0.96	250
	Feb	14	250	261.06	0.96	250
	Mar	15	258	262.07	0.98	258
	Apr	16	267	263.09	1.01	267
	May	17	273	264.10	1.03	273
	Jun	18	278	265.11	1.05	278
	Jul	19	260	266.12	0.98	260
	Aug	20	256	267.14	0.96	256
	Sep	21	255	268.15	0.95	255
	Oct	22	270	269.16	1.00	270
	Nov	23	275	270.17	1.02	275
	Dec	24	283	271.19	1.04	283
Year 3	Jan	25		272.20	0.97	265
	Feb	26		273.21	0.97	265
	Mar	27		274.22	0.99	272
	Apr	28		275.24	1.03	282
	May	29		276.25	1.04	288
	Jun	30		277.26	1.04	288
	Jul	31		278.27	0.99	276
	Aug	32		279.29	0.96	268
	Sep	33		280.30	0.94	265
	Oct	34		281.31	1.00	281
	Nov	35		282.33	1.02	289
	Dec	36		283.34	1.04	296