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qso_520_module_8_homework.docxQSO 520 Module Eight Homework Questions
1. (P10-46) A plant engineering group needs to set up an assembly line to produce a new product. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed for this product to be manufactured:
|
Activity |
Days |
Immediate Predecessors |
||
|
|
a |
m |
b |
|
|
A |
3 |
6 |
8 |
|
|
B |
5 |
8 |
10 |
A |
|
C |
5 |
6 |
8 |
A |
|
D |
1 |
2 |
4 |
B, C |
|
E |
7 |
11 |
17 |
D |
|
F |
7 |
9 |
12 |
D |
|
G |
6 |
8 |
9 |
D |
|
H |
3 |
4 |
7 |
F, G |
|
I |
3 |
5 |
7 |
E, F, H |
Assume that each activity time is normally distributed with expected time and standard deviation computed as shown in equations 7-6 and 7-8, respectively, on page 283. Round off all activity times to two decimal places.
a) Use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability that the project will finish in 37 days or less.
b) Use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability that the project will take more than 32 days.
