American Foreign Policy Paper

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THE FUTURE OF U.S. POWER &  NATIONAL SECURITY

Beyond the Bush & Obama Doctrines

Is the U.S. a Shrinking Superpower?

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TAPS FOR A SUPERPOWER?

WHAT IS A SUPERPOWER?

• “A country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemony”

• Does This Apply to Any Other Country?

• Still, Only the U.S

• BUT……

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WHAT STRATEGIC POSTURES FOR THE FUTURE: HOW MIGHT WE ADJUST TO

MULITPOLARITY ABROAD & DIMINISHING RESOURCES AT HOME?

• Neo Isolationism?

• Selective Engagement?

• Cooperative Security?

• Primacy?

• Off-Shore Balancing

NEO-ISOLATIONISM

• Can’t Afford the Cost of World Order

• Minimalist Defense Posture (Nuks, MD, Navy, Robust Intell)

• These and Geography Make us Secure from Peer Threats

• Little Support for This Posture (Libertarians)

• Disengagement Makes us More or Less Safe?

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SELECTIVE ENGAGEMENT

• Focus on Vital Interests & the Dynamics Among the Major Powers

• Finite Resources = Cannot Afford Leadership in a Unipolar World

• Case by Case Assessment and Public Debate

• Interventions must be Related to Vital Interests and be Cost-Effective

LEADERSHIP IN COOPERATIVE SECURITY

• Peace is Indivisible and Affects U.S. Interests

• Multi-lateralism: Use Collective Security & Collective Defense

• “Rogue States” Managed by U.S. & High-Tech Military

• Favors Humanitarian Interventions

• Leans in Favor of “Missionary Model”

• Cautions on Over-extension & “Mission Creep”

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PRIMACY

• The Bush NSS

• No Peers; Sole Super Power, Strong Defense

• Unilateralism When Required

• Aggregating Power via Alliances & Coalitions Not Reliable

• Focus on Major Powers

• Avoid Protracted Conflicts in non-Critical Regions

• Fails to Address Challenges of Asymmetric War

OFF-SHORE BALANCING: The Old or New American Era?

• Primacy Reduced Great Power Competition & Helped Shape a More Tranquil International Environment

• No State/Empire Has Ever Remained on Top

• “Imperial Overstretch”

• We Have Power But With Declining Influence to Shape the World

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OFF-SHORE BALANCING: The Old or New American Era?

• Post-Unipolar World Requires Clear Priorities

• Primacy Precluded Difficult Choices

• Off-Shore Balancing

• Support Regional Balances of Power From a Distance

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OFF-SHORE BALANCING: The Old or New American Era?

• More Burden on Allies

• 1979 RDJTF Model of Off-Shore Balancing

• Limit On-Shore Basing & U.S. Visibility

• Eschew Nation Building

• Bush Regional Transformation

OFF-SHORE BALANCING: The Old or New American Era?

• China & The Shift to Asia

• The Model for Off- Shore Balancing?

• The New World: Unipolar, Bipolar, or Multipolar, the U.S. Will be One of the Poles & First Among Equals

• Build Fewer Bagrams & Polish the “City on a Hill”

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Global Trends 2025: National Intelligence  Council  

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1991 GULF WAR: THE HIGH WATER MARK of THE AMERICAN ERA?

• Triumph of Liberal Democracy

• Globalization of Prosperity

• Unchallenged Military Superiority

THE FUTURE OF U.S. GRAND STRATEGY: Can We Still Shape the World?

• Neo-Isolationism

• Cooperative Security

• Selective Engagement

• Primacy

• Off-Shore Balancing

• Will We Reshape the World or Our Strategy?