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forrer-trendanalysis.pptEnvironmental Trend Analysis
Dr. Don Forrer
1174 Dromin Lane
Melbourne Florida 32940
(Home) (321) 600-4845
(Cell) (239) 848-7182
Web Site: http://www.professorforrer.com
“The continuing commitment by business to behave ethically and contribute to economic development while improving the quality of life of the workforce, and their families, as well as of the local community and society at large.” (World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2000)
“Operating a business in a manner that meets or exceeds the ethical, legal, commercial and public expectations that society has of business”. (Business for Social Responsibility, 1998)
The
Organization
External
Environment
Internal
Environment
Employee
Relationships
Management
Relationships
Resources
Availability
Structure
Financial
Capabilities
Technology
Operations
Societal
Legal
Political
Regulatory
Technological
Advances
Competitive
Structure
Global
Issues
Industry
History
Economic
Trend analysis
Define the Business
External & Internal Environmental Analysis
Forecasting
Identify the Strategy
Implementation
Controls
Mission
Vision
Major Goals
Values
Philosophy
Institutionalize
Ethics in every
decision
Leadership
Porter’s 6 forces Model
- Strategy Shaping Factors
- Environmental Analysis
- Dominant Economic Characteristics
- Key Success Factors
- Strategic Group Map
- Industry and Competitive
- Boston Consulting Group Model
- Competitive Strength Model
- Value Chain
- Human Resource Model
- Financial Analysis Model
- Organizational Culture Model
- Marketing Analysis Model
- Operations Management Model
SWOT
All Needs
Budget
Production
Technology
Human
Education
Training
Etc.
Selection of
the
Strategy
Low Cost,
Differentiation
Niche. Etc.
Select Goals
To Support
Major
Organizational
goals
Strengths
Opportunities
Weaknesses
Threats
Create a
Competitive
Advantage
Feedback
Everything
you measure
Dr. Donald A. Forrer – Jan 28, 2016
Mann’s Trend Model
Trend Analysis Background
- Corporate social responsibility is an important consideration in the expanded global marketplace. Mann (2008) discusses a 360 degree enterprise Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) audit that can be used as an effective trend analysis tool. Through the CSR audit an organization can review all aspects of an organization for social issues that affect operations. The CSR audit used by Mann combines two models that look at organizational scanning and social responsibility to create an effective trend analysis tool that analyzes the environment surrounding the organization.
Trend siting
- Review each of the nine dynamics for potential effects. Identify any “red flags” where trends may already be forming and define any progress already made by the issue.
Trend candidates
- Review each of the nine dynamics for issues developing that could influence the market or change the industry. Define the level of impact the identified trend would have on the industry if progress continues. Describe the trend as “distant”, “emerging”, or “mature”.
Trend verification
- Provide a timeline for trends in the nine dynamics. Include the potential strength of the trend and its potential impact on the industry. Is the trend moving into any particular market faster than others?
Trend impact
- Determine a timeline indicating when the trend will create the most impact and the effect on the industry. Identify which competitors are exploiting the trend, rivals with the most to gain or lose, and the effects on customers. Project how the industry will change over the short and long term. Also, identify any measures that can be taken to slow the emerging trend.
Scenarios
- Decision-makers should create a detailed list of scenarios to combat any negative trends and take advantage of positive trends. Consideration should be given to changing or influencing the emerging trend if it will be harmful to the organization.
PANERA BREAD TREND ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE)
Trend Siting:
- Economic system: An example of an event that could affect the economic system of Panera Bread could be an extreme wheat shortage. If the supply of wheat is short, the price for wheat will increase. If the price of wheat goes up, then the price of goods that require wheat will also go up. This shortage affects the resource base, distribution system and production system that are Panera Bread’s main source of product which is bread.
- Political System: If Panera were to use an ingredient that was not approved by the FDA the legal base, policy-making process, and social compact areas would be impacted. For the legal base and policy-making process, Panera bread would have to decide if that ingredient was critical for the success of their business. If so, then they would have to go through the legal process to get their “special ingredient” approved by the FDA. If the ingredient did not get approved, Panera would have to overcome this challenge. Social aspects that Panera must be concerned with are the information about this “special ingredient.” Will the release of this information be publicized as a positive or a negative? If it is negative, then what is the response of the company to counteract the negative media exposure?
- Culture: The culture of the society must play a key role in the culture of the business. Positive values that mirror or exemplify the society must be inculcated into the practice of the location of the business. By practicing these high values, the work force’s mindset will be in tune with the mindset of the organization. This will provide buy in for the employees which will inculcate them into the business model of Panera Bread.
PANERA BREAD TREND ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE)
Trend candidates:
- One of the trends that have been gaining momentum is curbside pickup. This trend allows diners to get a much higher quality meal within far less time and effort. This trend is affected by family values that depict that families should share dinner together at home. With curbside pickup, even with severe time constraints, parents can bring good quality food home to share at the dinner table with their family. Another trend that is affecting the industry is fast food places like McDonald’s and Wendy’s offering fresher, healthier menu items. Social influences are putting pressure on people to eat healthier and move away from burgers and fries but the general fast-paced environment still pushes us toward the speed and convenience of fast food drive-thru restaurants. The mention of drive-thru restaurants introduces another trend that is affecting the industry. Healthier restaurants that are competitive with Panera Bread such as Subway and Jimmy John’s are incorporating drive-thru restaurants thus allowing consumers to get healthy food with the convenience of the drive-thru. An additional trend is the incorporation of “lunch-time” hour guarantees. Some restaurants, such as Applebee’s offer quick menu items for lunch that come with a guarantee of having you in and out in less than one hour. This will significantly affect Panera Bread because the majority of their sales occur during the lunch hour.
PANERA BREAD TREND ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE)
Trend verification:
- The trend of curbside pick-up has been increasing over the past few years. This is due to people having less time to cook but desiring high quality meals to be shared with their family. Fast food has been a trend since the days of carhops at restaurants such as McDonalds. The quality of the food served through drive through or pick up establishments has increased. Several restaurants such as Olive Garden and TGIF have caught onto the desire by consumers and have been very successful in meeting these needs. This trend does not seem to have an end due to the never changing requirement of families to receive quality meals and the fact that more families are becoming dual income families. Dual income families make more income for the family; however, they sacrifice time to properly prepare meals for the family. This trend is growing in both fast food and sit-down restaurants to accommodate the busy family. This trend could be positively or negatively affected by the economy and the structure of the family. If the economy raised and the demand for a dual income family sharply decreases, the need to find a quality meal as opposed to cook a quality meal will decrease. Families will have the time and opportunity to create home cooked meals as opposed to going out to eat those meals. This will be a slight decrease because as the economy improves, people will have the time and the finances to sit down and eat. The intensity is likely to be high over the next 5 years. The economy is still recovering and the requirement for the dual income family is still needed to provide for the needs. With this dual income family, there will continue to be a shortfall of time to prepare meals for the family. The trend of fast food burger places like McDonald’s and Wendy’s offering fresher, healthier menu items is ‘emerging’ quickly. The social pressure to be healthy will remain strong and continue to perpetuate this trend for a number of years. Its momentum is likely to be high. The only factor that may slow this trend down would be economic. The cost of offering fresher, healthier foods is higher and therefore the cost to consumers to purchase this food will be higher and depending on the strength of the economy, a customer might continue to opt for the cheaper, less healthy items.
PANERA BREAD TREND ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE)
Trend impact:
- The trends of healthier foods being offered at lower prices with much faster, convenient services will converge within the next 10 years. Consumer needs and demands will be met. People are already willing to give up human interaction and pleasantries in many other facets of their lives for the sake of speed and convenience with clear examples of this to include texting instead of calling, emailing instead of writing letters, and chatting online instead of making a phone call or meeting in person. Customers even choose to order their food online instead of making that phone call for the pizza delivery or the curbside pickup. Fast food restaurants and casual dining restaurants are moving to exploit these trends and they have the most to gain.
PANERA BREAD TREND ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE)
Trend scenarios:
- The possible future could be that drive-thru fast food restaurants will offer comparable foods and Panera will be forced to find some way to match the speed, convenience, and low prices with which their competitors are able to offer their menu options. It could also be possible that the majority of healthier and casual dining restaurants will begin to offer curbside pickup and drive-thru restaurants and therefore Panera Bread would again be forced to match the speed and convenience of these equal quality-dining options. Panera should move to impede the progress of these trends and continue to put emphasis on the comfortable “group-meeting” environment of their cafes.
Questions?????
