project report
breezy
personalincome_.xlsxIndex
| Macro.xlsx Contents |
| Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.2 Real gross domestic product by major demand category, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.3 Nominal gross domestic product by major demand category, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.4 Personal consumption expenditures, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.5 Gross private domestic investment, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.6 Exports and imports of goods and services, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.7 Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.9 State and local government receipts and expenditures, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.10 Personal income, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
| Table 4.11 Labor supply and factors affecting productivity, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 |
Table 4.1
| Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||
| Billions of chained 2009 dollars | Annual | ||||||
| Exogenous variables | (unless noted) | rate of change | |||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Monetary policy-related: | |||||||
| Federal funds rate (percent) | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.4 | -10.7 | -23.8 | 43.7 |
| Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | -10.8 | -31.3 | 57.6 |
| Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | -4.9 | -5.1 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal policy, tax-related: | |||||||
| Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) | 21.8 | 21.4 | 23.2 | 23.2 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) | 23.4 | 23.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) | 26.4 | 24.5 | 28.0 | 28.0 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) | 24.7 | 15.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | -4.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: | |||||||
| Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased | 129.9 | 211.1 | 216.5 | 207.2 | 5.0 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| Defense gross investment | 101.1 | 133.2 | 134.1 | 153.3 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased | 49.7 | 84.7 | 91.4 | 73.3 | 5.5 | 0.8 | -2.2 |
| Nondefense gross investment | 70.9 | 94.2 | 105.0 | 110.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) | 166.9 | 332.2 | 501.0 | 749.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars) | 164.4 | 304.4 | 587.8 | 955.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5.0 |
| Energy-related: | |||||||
| Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) | 17.2 | 41.4 | 93.3 | 99.9 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 0.7 |
| Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) | 15.8 | 38.2 | 99.0 | 107.3 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 0.8 |
| Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs) | 1.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 12.0 | -2.9 | 5.0 |
| Domestic oil product (billions of barrels) | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | -2.0 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| Demographic-related: | |||||||
| Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions) | 263.5 | 293.1 | 319.1 | 343.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Population aged 16 and over (in millions) | 196.8 | 223.4 | 247.9 | 269.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau. | |||||||
Table 4.2
| Table 4.2 Real gross domestic product by major demand category, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | ||||||||||
| Billions of chained 2009 dollars | Annual | Contribution to percent change | ||||||||
| Category | rate of change | in real GDP | ||||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Gross domestic product | $9,905.4 | $13,773.5 | $16,085.6 | $19,917.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Personal consumption expenditures | 6,338.0 | 9,208.2 | 10,969.1 | 13,862.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Gross private domestic investment | 1,502.2 | 2,511.3 | 2,704.7 | 3,610.9 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Exports | 826.5 | 1,300.5 | 2,084.6 | 3,090.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Imports1 | 937.5 | 2,035.4 | 2,537.3 | 3,716.7 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| Government consumption expenditures | ||||||||||
| and gross investment | 2,245.6 | 2,808.2 | 2,889.7 | 3,124.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Federal defense | 565.5 | 652.7 | 702.4 | 698.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Federal nondefense | 280.3 | 364.5 | 421.0 | 419.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| State and local | 1,394.5 | 1,792.8 | 1,765.2 | 2,000.9 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Residual2 | -64.1 | -21.2 | -24.1 | -47.9 | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| Addendum | ||||||||||
| GDP per capita, chained 2009 dollars | 37,589.1 | 46,985.4 | 50,413.0 | 57,917.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | … | … | … |
| 1 Imports are subtracted from the other components of GDP because they are not produced in the United States. | ||||||||||
| 2 The residual is calculated as real gross domestic product, plus imports, less other components. | ||||||||||
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | ||||||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | ||||||||||
Table 4.3
| Table 4.3 Nominal gross domestic product by major demand category, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | ||||||||
| Category | Billions of dollars | Percent distribution | ||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | |
| Gross domestic product | $7,308.8 | $12,274.9 | $17,418.9 | $26,563.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Personal consumption expenditures | 4,741.0 | 8,260.0 | 11,930.3 | 18,235.3 | 64.9 | 67.3 | 68.5 | 68.6 |
| Gross private domestic investment | 1,256.5 | 2,276.7 | 2,851.6 | 4,639.8 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 16.4 | 17.5 |
| Exports | 720.9 | 1,181.5 | 2,336.9 | 3,795.7 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 13.4 | 14.3 |
| Imports1 | 813.4 | 1,800.7 | 2,875.2 | 4,550.7 | 11.1 | 14.7 | 16.5 | 17.1 |
| Government consumption expenditures | ||||||||
| and gross investment | 1,403.7 | 2,357.4 | 3,175.2 | 4,443.5 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 18.2 | 16.7 |
| Federal defense | 380.3 | 570.2 | 761.5 | 923.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Federal nondefense | 192.4 | 322.1 | 457.6 | 534.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| State and local | 831.0 | 1,465.1 | 1,956.1 | 2,985.9 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| 1 Imports are subtracted from the other components of GDP because they are not produced in the United States. | ||||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | ||||||||
Table 4.4
| Table 4.4 Personal consumption expenditures, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||
| Billions of chained 2009 dollars | Annual | ||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Personal consumption expenditures | $6,338.0 | $9,208.2 | $10,969.1 | $13,862.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Durable goods | 457.0 | 992.9 | 1,410.0 | 1,937.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Motor vehicles and parts | 252.6 | 405.5 | 405.0 | 479.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Other durable goods | 222.3 | 592.3 | 1,008.2 | 1,496.6 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Nondurable goods | 1,527.2 | 2,063.6 | 2,364.8 | 2,879.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Food | 618.4 | 729.8 | 809.7 | 946.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Gasoline | 272.3 | 299.3 | 274.5 | 297.4 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.8 |
| Other nondurable goods | 664.0 | 1,030.8 | 1,292.6 | 1,667.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Services | 4,485.2 | 6,156.6 | 7,218.6 | 9,114.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Housing services | 1,356.6 | 1,717.9 | 1,981.7 | 2,411.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Imputed rent | 810.2 | 1,104.7 | 1,253.6 | 1,567.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Natural gas | 58.2 | 56.2 | 56.0 | 54.9 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Electricity | 128.4 | 157.0 | 163.8 | 199.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Other housing services | 361.8 | 398.8 | 508.5 | 588.7 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Medical services | 1,046.1 | 1,442.3 | 1,830.7 | 2,466.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Other services | 2,089.3 | 2,995.3 | 3,404.9 | 4,230.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Residual1 | -185.6 | -3.7 | -38.4 | -131.7 | … | … | … |
| 1 The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines. | |||||||
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||
Table 4.5
| Table 4.5 Gross private domestic investment, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||
| Billions of chained 2009 dollars | Annual | ||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Gross private domestic investment | $1,502.2 | $2,511.3 | $2,704.7 | $3,610.9 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| Fixed nonresidential investment | 937.6 | 1,605.3 | 2,116.4 | 2,826.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Equipment and software | 381.7 | 731.2 | 1,008.2 | 1,432.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| Computers and software | 4.5 | 46.8 | 84.6 | 154.9 | 26.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
| Other equipment | 463.1 | 692.0 | 921.4 | 1,279.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Intellectual property products | 232.6 | 464.9 | 654.2 | 843.1 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Structures | 389.7 | 414.1 | 456.2 | 610.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Fixed residential structures | 512.8 | 818.8 | 496.1 | 710.6 | 4.8 | -4.9 | 3.7 |
| Single-family | 264.2 | 405.5 | 169.5 | 357.4 | 4.4 | -8.4 | 7.7 |
| Multifamily | 27.6 | 52.0 | 40.2 | 50.0 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 2.2 |
| Other | 217.5 | 356.7 | 287.5 | 298.5 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 0.4 |
| Change in business inventories | 75.4 | 71.4 | 70.6 | 50.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -3.3 |
| Residual1 | -172.4 | 7.9 | 20.5 | -33.2 | … | … | … |
| 1 The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines. | |||||||
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||
Table 4.6
| Table 4.6 Exports and imports of goods and services, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||
| Billions of chained 2009 dollars | Annual | ||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Exports of goods and services | $826.5 | $1,300.5 | $2,084.6 | $3,090.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Goods | 553.0 | 904.5 | 1,438.9 | 2,146.5 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Nonagricultural | 487.5 | 824.9 | 1,323.3 | 2,018.9 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Agricultural | 69.4 | 80.4 | 117.2 | 137.5 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| Services | 279.7 | 395.4 | 645.1 | 947.9 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| Residual1 | -10.1 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -13.5 | … | … | … |
| Imports of goods and services | 937.5 | 2,035.4 | 2,537.3 | 3,716.7 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 |
| Goods | 747.7 | 1,704.1 | 2,072.4 | 3,120.6 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 4.2 |
| Nonpetroleum | 595.0 | 1,405.2 | 1,918.4 | 2,997.8 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| Petroleum | 204.5 | 308.7 | 214.9 | 236.2 | 4.2 | -3.6 | 0.9 |
| Services | 193.8 | 326.4 | 464.4 | 595.5 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Residual2 | -55.7 | -5.0 | -60.4 | -112.9 | … | … | … |
| Trade surplus/deficit | -111.0 | -734.8 | -452.7 | -625.9 | 20.8 | -4.7 | 3.3 |
| 1 The residual following the detail categories for exports is the difference between the aggregate of "exports of goods and services" and the sum of the figures those separate categories for exports of goods and services. | |||||||
| 2 The residual following the detail categories for imports is the difference between the aggregate of "imports of goods and services" and the sum of the figures those separate categories for imports of goods and services. | |||||||
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||
Table 4.7
| Table 4.7 Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||||||
| Billions of current dollars | Percent distribution | Annual | |||||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Receipts | $1,326.7 | $2,022.2 | $3,300.8 | $4,854.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| Tax receipts | 781.4 | 1,154.0 | 2,024.5 | 2,957.3 | 58.9 | 57.1 | 61.3 | 60.9 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 |
| Personal taxes | 542.6 | 798.5 | 1,374.2 | 2,214.3 | 40.9 | 39.5 | 41.6 | 45.6 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Corporate income taxes | 156.7 | 250.3 | 497.3 | 536.7 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 0.8 |
| Taxes on production and imports | 79.0 | 95.2 | 134.1 | 176.1 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Taxes from the rest of the world | 3.2 | 10.0 | 18.9 | 30.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 4.8 |
| Contributions for social insurance | 496.2 | 808.9 | 1,149.3 | 1,749.2 | 37.4 | 40.0 | 34.8 | 36.0 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Income receipts on assets | 23.6 | 25.3 | 37.5 | 49.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Interest receipts | 20.0 | 16.6 | 27.9 | 34.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| Rents and royalties | 3.5 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 15.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| Transfer receipts | 21.6 | 29.1 | 68.5 | 84.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 2.1 |
| From business | 15.9 | 15.9 | 47.4 | 56.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 11.6 | 1.7 |
| From persons | 5.6 | 13.2 | 21.1 | 27.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| Surplus of government enterprises | 4.1 | 4.9 | -19.7 | -6.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 1.9 | … | -10.4 |
| Expenditures | 1,580.4 | 2,421.4 | 3,883.1 | 6,008.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Consumption expenditures | 427.3 | 681.4 | 965.2 | 1,156.6 | 27.0 | 28.1 | 24.9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| Transfer payments | 800.1 | 1,388.0 | 2,419.6 | 3,877.6 | 50.6 | 57.3 | 62.3 | 64.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Government social benefits | 613.2 | 1,025.6 | 1,882.8 | 3,071.1 | 38.8 | 42.4 | 48.5 | 51.1 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Social Security benefits | 312.2 | 485.5 | 834.7 | 1,443.3 | 19.8 | 20.1 | 21.5 | 24.0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Medicare benefits | 164.4 | 304.4 | 587.8 | 955.8 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 15.1 | 15.9 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5.0 |
| Unemployment benefits | 24.0 | 36.4 | 36.9 | 40.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| Other benefits to persons | 105.9 | 188.6 | 404.1 | 603.5 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 4.1 |
| Benefits to the rest of the world | 6.8 | 10.6 | 19.3 | 28.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 |
| Other transfer payments | 186.8 | 362.4 | 536.9 | 806.5 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Grants-in-aid to state & local government | 166.9 | 332.2 | 501.0 | 749.1 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| To the rest of the world | 20.0 | 30.2 | 36.0 | 57.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 4.8 |
| Interest payments | 320.8 | 306.1 | 441.4 | 876.7 | 20.3 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 14.6 | -0.5 | 3.7 | 7.1 |
| To persons and business | 284.5 | 251.3 | 331.8 | 495.3 | 18.0 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| To the rest of the world | 36.3 | 54.8 | 109.5 | 381.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 13.3 |
| Subsidies | 32.2 | 46.0 | 56.9 | 97.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 5.5 |
| Net Federal Government saving | -253.7 | -399.2 | -582.3 | -1,153.8 | … | … | … | … | 4.6 | 3.8 | 7.1 |
| Surplus or deficit as percentage of | |||||||||||
| gross domestic product | -3.5 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -4.3 | … | … | … | … | -0.6 | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||||||
Table 4.8
| Table 4.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||
| Billions of chained 2009 dollars | Annual | ||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | $2,245.6 | $2,808.2 | $2,889.7 | $3,124.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Federal Government consumption and investment | 844.8 | 1,017.1 | 1,123.5 | 1,117.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Defense consumption and investment | 565.5 | 652.7 | 702.4 | 698.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| Consumption expenditures | 466.9 | 520.0 | 567.8 | 545.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| Compensation, military | 144.4 | 140.3 | 141.4 | 141.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Compensation, civilian | 91.1 | 69.9 | 79.0 | 80.0 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Consumption of fixed capital | 128.9 | 118.5 | 154.7 | 142.8 | -0.8 | 2.7 | -0.8 |
| Intermediate goods and services purchased | 129.9 | 211.1 | 216.5 | 207.2 | 5.0 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| Less own-account investment | 13.3 | 16.2 | 20.0 | 21.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Less sales to other sectors | 7.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | -8.1 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| Gross Investment | 101.1 | 133.2 | 134.1 | 153.3 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Own-account investment | 13.3 | 16.2 | 20.0 | 21.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Other investment | 87.7 | 117.0 | 114.0 | 132.0 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| Nondefense consumption and investment | 280.3 | 364.5 | 421.0 | 419.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Consumption expenditures | 210.3 | 270.4 | 315.8 | 308.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | -0.2 |
| Compensation | 133.2 | 133.6 | 148.0 | 147.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Consumption of fixed capital | 54.5 | 71.8 | 95.1 | 105.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Commodity credit corporation purchases | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 5.2 | -17.7 | … |
| Other | 50.4 | 85.7 | 91.5 | 73.3 | 5.5 | 0.7 | -2.2 |
| Less own-account investment | 14.8 | 15.2 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 0.2 | -1.6 | 0.1 |
| Less sales to other sectors | 6.8 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | -5.0 | 2.8 | -2.1 |
| Gross investment | 70.9 | 94.2 | 105.0 | 110.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Own-account investment | 14.8 | 15.2 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 0.2 | -1.6 | 0.1 |
| Other investment | 56.6 | 79.0 | 92.1 | 97.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| State and local government consumption and investment | 1,394.5 | 1,792.8 | 1,765.2 | 2,000.9 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
| Consumption expenditures | 1,152.6 | 1,431.8 | 1,460.0 | 1,638.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Compensation | 960.4 | 1,102.9 | 1,118.7 | 1,205.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Consumption of fixed capital | 95.9 | 141.6 | 173.4 | 204.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Intermediate goods and services purchased | 394.5 | 575.3 | 592.5 | 659.2 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Less own-account investment | 22.5 | 32.0 | 33.4 | 38.8 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Less sales to other sectors | 270.0 | 356.7 | 391.5 | 394.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Gross investment | 242.7 | 361.6 | 304.4 | 361.6 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 1.7 |
| Own-account investment | 22.5 | 32.0 | 33.4 | 38.8 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Other investment | 220.3 | 329.9 | 271.0 | 322.7 | 4.1 | -1.9 | 1.8 |
| Residual1 | 37.2 | 68.3 | 97.3 | 113.1 | … | … | … |
| 1 The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines. | |||||||
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||
Table 4.9
| Table 4.9 State and local government receipts and expenditures, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||||||
| Billions of current dollars | Percent distribution | Annual | |||||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Receipts | $934.1 | $1,575.1 | $2,205.9 | $3,464.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Tax receipts | 644.2 | 1,057.9 | 1,495.1 | 2,408.7 | 69.0 | 67.2 | 67.8 | 69.5 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| Personal taxes | 148.0 | 247.4 | 368.7 | 596.3 | 15.8 | 15.7 | 16.7 | 17.2 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Corporate income taxes | 30.0 | 41.7 | 57.3 | 88.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Taxes on production and imports | 466.3 | 768.7 | 1,069.1 | 1,724.2 | 49.9 | 48.8 | 48.5 | 49.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 4.9 |
| Sales taxes and other | 266.9 | 442.5 | 618.7 | 972.3 | 28.6 | 28.1 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Property taxes | 199.4 | 326.2 | 450.4 | 751.8 | 21.3 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 21.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 5.3 |
| Contributions for social insurance | 14.5 | 24.6 | 17.6 | 25.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.4 | -3.3 | 3.6 |
| Income receipts on assets | 63.5 | 76.9 | 81.0 | 102.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| Interest receipts | 58.2 | 66.4 | 63.7 | 77.2 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 1.9 |
| Dividends | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 |
| Rents and royalties | 4.5 | 8.5 | 13.3 | 19.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Transfer receipts | 204.1 | 422.5 | 626.8 | 927.8 | 21.8 | 26.8 | 28.4 | 26.8 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Federal grants-in-aid | 166.9 | 332.2 | 501.0 | 749.1 | 17.9 | 21.1 | 22.7 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| From business (net) | 11.9 | 36.5 | 52.2 | 79.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| From persons | 25.3 | 53.8 | 73.7 | 99.6 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Surplus of government enterprises | 7.8 | -6.7 | -14.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 0.0 | … | 8.0 | … |
| Expenditures | 961.0 | 1,683.4 | 2,430.7 | 3,686.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Consumption expenditures | 682.2 | 1,187.6 | 1,620.4 | 2,438.1 | 71.0 | 70.5 | 66.7 | 66.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| Government social benefit payments to persons | 206.7 | 385.0 | 615.1 | 982.5 | 21.5 | 22.9 | 25.3 | 26.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Medicaid | 144.9 | 300.1 | 503.0 | 818.3 | 15.1 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 22.2 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Other | 61.8 | 84.9 | 112.1 | 164.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Interest payments | 71.8 | 110.5 | 194.8 | 265.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 |
| Subsidies | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Net state & local government saving | -27.0 | -108.4 | -224.8 | -222.2 | … | … | … | … | 14.9 | 7.6 | -0.1 |
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||||||
Table 4.10
| Table 4.10 Personal income, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||||||
| Billions of current dollars | Percent distribution | Annual | |||||||||
| Category | rate of change | ||||||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Sources | |||||||||||
| Personal income | $5,934.7 | $10,048.3 | $14,728.6 | $22,685.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Compensation of employees | 4,010.1 | 6,739.5 | 9,221.6 | 14,303.3 | 67.6 | 67.1 | 62.6 | 63.1 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Wage & salary disbursements | 3,236.6 | 5,421.9 | 7,446.0 | 11,581.8 | 54.5 | 54.0 | 50.6 | 51.1 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Supplements to wages & salary | 773.5 | 1,317.6 | 1,775.6 | 2,721.5 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 4.4 |
| Proprietors' income | 459.5 | 962.1 | 1,380.2 | 1,750.6 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| Rental income | 117.4 | 255.4 | 640.3 | 894.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 3.4 |
| Personal income on assets | 1,029.3 | 1,503.8 | 2,125.3 | 3,407.0 | 17.3 | 15.0 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.8 |
| Personal interest income | 794.2 | 941.7 | 1,264.7 | 2,243.8 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 5.9 |
| Personal dividend income | 235.2 | 562.1 | 860.6 | 1,163.3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Personal current transfer receipts | 826.4 | 1,416.7 | 2,522.7 | 4,094.9 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 17.1 | 18.1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Federal social benefits | 606.5 | 1,014.9 | 1,863.5 | 3,043.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| State & local social benefits | 206.7 | 385.0 | 615.1 | 982.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Other, from business (net) | 13.3 | 16.8 | 44.2 | 69.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 |
| Less: Social insurance contribution | 510.6 | 833.6 | 1,167.0 | 1,774.2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Use | |||||||||||
| Personal income | 5,934.7 | 10,048.3 | 14,728.6 | 22,685.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Personal consumption | 4,741.0 | 8,260.0 | 11,930.3 | 18,235.3 | 79.9 | 82.2 | 81.0 | 80.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Personal taxes | 690.5 | 1,046.0 | 1,742.9 | 2,810.6 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Personal interest payments | 121.9 | 221.8 | 256.8 | 483.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 6.5 |
| Personal transfer payments | 49.8 | 110.5 | 170.3 | 231.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| To government: | 30.9 | 67.0 | 94.8 | 127.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Federal | 5.6 | 13.2 | 21.1 | 27.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
| State & local | 25.3 | 53.8 | 73.7 | 99.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| To the rest of the world (net) | 19.0 | 43.6 | 75.6 | 104.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| Personal savings | 331.4 | 410.0 | 628.3 | 924.4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| Addenda | |||||||||||
| Disposable personal income | 5,244.2 | 9,002.3 | 12,985.8 | 19,874.5 | … | … | … | … | 5.6 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Disposable personal income, | |||||||||||
| chained 2009 dollars | 7,010.6 | 10,035.6 | 11,939.5 | 15,108.2 | … | … | … | … | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Per capita disposable income | 19,900.7 | 30,709.4 | 40,698.0 | 57,791.4 | … | … | … | … | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| Per capita disposable income, | |||||||||||
| chained 2009 dollars | 26,603.3 | 34,233.8 | 37,418.4 | 43,931.3 | … | … | … | … | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Savings rate (percent) | 6.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | … | … | … | … | -3.3 | 0.7 | -0.4 |
| Note: Dash indicates data not computable or not applicable. | |||||||||||
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||||||
Table 4.11
| Table 4.11 Labor supply and factors affecting productivity, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024 | |||||||
| Levels | Annual | ||||||
| rate of change | |||||||
| 1994 | 2004 | 2014 | 2024 | 1994-2004 | 2004-14 | 2014-24 | |
| Category | |||||||
| Labor supply (in millions, unless noted): | |||||||
| Total population | 263.5 | 293.1 | 319.1 | 343.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and older | 196.8 | 223.4 | 247.9 | 269.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Civilian labor force | 131.0 | 147.4 | 155.9 | 163.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Civilian labor force participation rate (percent) | 66.6 | 66.0 | 62.9 | 60.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Civilian household employment | 123.1 | 139.2 | 146.3 | 155.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Nonfarm payroll employment | 114.4 | 131.7 | 139.0 | 148.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Unemployment rate (percent) | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 1.1 | -1.7 |
| Productivity: | |||||||
| Private nonfarm business output per hour | |||||||
| (billions of chained 2009 dollars) | 40.6 | 53.8 | 62.1 | 74.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Source: Historical data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. | |||||||
