for Business Intelligence-I need you write Part b Task B (section a-c)

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MA

Year Tourism 12ma CentredMA Seasonality SeasIndex Deaseaonslised Values deaseas(values) Forecast erorr abserr sqerr abs%err AVER1
1 Jan-2006 461400 482282.811415613 482282.811415613 461400 0 0 0 0
2 Feb-2006 485000 424142.760159238 424142.760159238 485000 0 0 0 0
3 Mar-2006 473400 434218.46235175 434218.46235175 473400 0 0 0 0
4 Apr-2006 435000 473392.536368238 473392.536368238 435000 0 0 0 0
5 May-2006 342900 432006.034461756 432006.034461756 342900 0 0 0 0
6 Jun-2006 379700 457758 562375.573949518 562375.573949518 457758.333333333 78058 78058.3333333333 6093103402.77777 296387491.666666
7 Jul-2006 478200 456892 457325 1.0456458755 1.026976 465638.963938202 465638.963938202 478200 0 0 0 0 457325
8 Aug-2006 410200 458992 457942 0.8957472749 0.927718 442160.061929232 442160.061929232 410200 0 0 0 0 457941.666666667
9 Sep-2006 423500 462875 460933 0.9187879664 0.909900 465435.78490321 465435.78490321 423500 0 0 0 0 460933.333333333
10 Oct-2006 472900 462867 462871 1.0216673118 0.998730 473501.252264897 473501.252264897 472900 0 0 0 0 462870.833333333
11 Nov-2006 490000 464683 463775 1.0565468169 1.047237 467898.12135594 467898.12135594 490000 0 0 0 0 463775
12 Dec-2006 640900 466208 465446 1.3769593669 1.371490 467302.024960991 467302.024960991 640900 0 0 0 0 465445.833333333
13 Jan-2007 451000 466325 466267 0.9672576494 0.956700 471412.110854879 471412.110854879 451000 0 0 0 0 466266.666666667
14 Feb-2007 510200 468183 467254 1.0919110762 1.143483 446180.693264419 446180.693264419 510200 0 0 0 0 467254.166666667
15 Mar-2007 520000 468850 468517 1.1098858098 1.090235 476961.55560395 476961.55560395 520000 0 0 0 0 468516.666666667
16 Apr-2007 434900 467850 468350 0.9285790541 0.918899 473283.710497808 473283.710497808 434900 0 0 0 0 468350
17 May-2007 364700 468217 468033 0.7792180044 0.793739 459470.985034128 459470.985034128 364700 0 0 0 0 468033.333333333
18 Jun-2007 398000 465733 466975 0.85229402 0.813973 572173.200504099 572173.200504099 465733.333333333 67733 67733.3333333333 4587804444.44443 269578666.666666 466975
19 Jul-2007 479600 464508 465121 1.0311299035 467002.189679552 467002.189679552 479600 0 0 0 0 465120.833333333
20 Aug-2007 432500 466633 465571 0.9289671282 466197.529947326 466197.529947326 432500 0 0 0 0 465570.833333333
21 Sep-2007 431500 465608 466121 0.9257256255 474227.960296895 474227.960296895 431500 0 0 0 0 466120.833333333
22 Oct-2007 460900 464292 464950 0.991289386 461485.995282071 461485.995282071 460900 0 0 0 0 464950
23 Nov-2007 494400 465250 464771 1.063750056 472099.655506891 472099.655506891 494400 0 0 0 0 464770.833333333
24 Dec-2007 611100 463525 464388 1.315926893 445573.829698333 445573.829698333 611100 0 0 0 0 464387.5
25 Jan-2008 436300 467208 465367 0.9375402908 456046.793716151 456046.793716151 436300 0 0 0 0 465366.666666667
26 Feb-2008 535700 465650 466429 1.1485130826 468480.98271609 468480.98271609 535700 0 0 0 0 466429.166666667
27 Mar-2008 507700 462792 464221 1.0936605244 465679.580346395 465679.580346395 507700 0 0 0 0 464220.833333333
28 Apr-2008 419100 461900 462346 0.9064643169 456089.222969951 456089.222969951 419100 0 0 0 0 462345.833333333
29 May-2008 376200 459733 460817 0.8163767225 473959.376391113 473959.376391113 376200 0 0 0 0 460816.666666667
30 Jun-2008 377300 459367 459550 0.8210205636 564351.479827296 564351.479827296 459366.666666667 82067 82066.6666666666 6734937777.77777 309637533.333333 459550
31 Jul-2008 523800 460183 459775 1.1392528954 510041.173799311 510041.173799311 523800 0 0 0 0 459775
32 Aug-2008 413800 456833 458508 0.9024917759 446040.550039776 446040.550039776 413800 0 0 0 0 458508.333333333
33 Sep-2008 397200 454683 455758 0.8715145088 436531.50829647 436531.50829647 397200 0 0 0 0 455758.333333333
34 Oct-2008 450200 457150 455917 0.9874611588 450772.39113905 450772.39113905 450200 0 0 0 0 455916.666666667
35 Nov-2008 468400 456533 456842 1.0253005235 447272.40825127 447272.40825127 468400 0 0 0 0 456841.666666667
36 Dec-2008 606700 454892 455713 1.3313218312 442365.63979378 442365.63979378 606700 0 0 0 0 455712.5
37 Jan-2009 446100 448950 451921 0.9871197942 466290.338475303 466290.338475303 446100 0 0 0 0 451920.833333333
38 Feb-2009 495500 448492 448721 1.1042500441 433325.232286397 433325.232286397 495500 0 0 0 0 448720.833333333
39 Mar-2009 481900 451417 449954 1.070997972 442014.949318353 442014.949318353 481900 0 0 0 0 449954.166666667
40 Apr-2009 448700 453708 452563 0.9914652672 488301.680617077 488301.680617077 448700 0 0 0 0 452562.5
41 May-2009 368800 454550 454129 0.8121037517 464636.411517923 464636.411517923 368800 0 0 0 0 454129.166666667
42 Jun-2009 357600 457517 456033 0.7841532052 562078.676175136 562078.676175136 457516.666666667 99917 99916.6666666666 9983340277.77777 357302000 456033.333333333
43 Jul-2009 452500 457100 457308 0.9894855768 440614.034257709 440614.034257709 452500 0 0 0 0 457308.333333333
44 Aug-2009 408300 461558 459329 0.8889050155 440112.026537556 440112.026537556 408300 0 0 0 0 459329.166666667
45 Sep-2009 432300 464808 463183 0.9333237379 475107.177836263 475107.177836263 432300 0 0 0 0 463183.333333333
46 Oct-2009 477700 462633 463721 1.0301456516 478307.355058028 478307.355058028 477700 0 0 0 0 463720.833333333
47 Nov-2009 478500 462758 462696 1.0341567084 456916.838915953 456916.838915953 478500 0 0 0 0 462695.833333333
48 Dec-2009 642300 466183 464471 1.3828640119 468322.812657895 468322.812657895 642300 0 0 0 0 464470.833333333
49 Jan-2010 441100 470583 468383 0.9417499911 461064.040128797 461064.040128797 441100 0 0 0 0 468383.333333333
50 Feb-2010 549000 473733 472158 1.1627455479 480112.114077158 480112.114077158 549000 0 0 0 0 472158.333333333
51 Mar-2010 520900 476775 475254 1.0960450987 477787.065988649 477787.065988649 520900 0 0 0 0 475254.166666667
52 Apr-2010 422600 477483 477129 0.8857140362 459898.128434982 459898.128434982 422600 0 0 0 0 477129.166666667
53 May-2010 370300 480150 478817 0.7733648926 466526.201694921 466526.201694921 370300 0 0 0 0 478816.666666667
54 Jun-2010 398700 482508 481329 0.8283312702 592782.001187872 592782.001187872 482508.333333333 83808 83808.3333333333 7023836736.11111 334143825 481329.166666667
55 Jul-2010 505300 484475 483492 1.0451059136 492027.119360045 492027.119360045 505300 0 0 0 0 483491.666666667
56 Aug-2010 446100 484358 484417 0.9209014278 480857.15169827 480857.15169827 446100 0 0 0 0 484416.666666667
57 Sep-2010 468800 482025 483192 0.970215408 515221.478069952 515221.478069952 468800 0 0 0 0 483191.666666667
58 Oct-2010 486200 484692 483358 1.0058790063 486818.16208753 486818.16208753 486200 0 0 0 0 483358.333333333
59 Nov-2010 510500 485350 485021 1.0525321077 487473.450922872 487473.450922872 510500 0 0 0 0 485020.833333333
60 Dec-2010 670600 484033 484692 1.3835599952 488957.306816728 488957.306816728 670600 0 0 0 0 484691.666666667
61 Jan-2011 464700 483242 483638 0.960843607 485732.168324307 485732.168324307 464700 0 0 0 0 483637.5
62 Feb-2011 547600 484467 483854 1.1317459634 478887.784460203 478887.784460203 547600 0 0 0 0 483854.166666667
63 Mar-2011 492900 480792 482629 1.0212810042 452104.520686898 452104.520686898 492900 0 0 0 0 482629.166666667
64 Apr-2011 454600 481058 480925 0.9452617352 494722.406972416 494722.406972416 454600 0 0 0 0 480925
65 May-2011 378200 481217 481138 0.7860538827 476479.096627111 476479.096627111 378200 0 0 0 0 481137.5
66 Jun-2011 382900 480900 481058 0.7959533667 590806.095310094 590806.095310094 480900 98000 98000 9604000000 375242000 481058.333333333
67 Jul-2011 495800 482725 481813 1.0290310027 482776.658972314 482776.658972314 495800 0 0 0 0 481812.5
68 Aug-2011 460800 482458 482592 0.9548445028 496702.478149659 496702.478149659 460800 0 0 0 0 482591.666666667
69 Sep-2011 424700 486008 484233 0.8770565155 466754.611212262 466754.611212262 424700 0 0 0 0 484233.333333333
70 Oct-2011 489400 486175 486092 1.0068059865 490022.230616284 490022.230616284 489400 0 0 0 0 486091.666666667
71 Nov-2011 512400 486900 486538 1.0531562315 489287.749760783 489287.749760783 512400 0 0 0 0 486537.5
72 Dec-2011 666800 489333 488117 1.3660668556 486186.597353704 486186.597353704 666800 0 0 0 0 488116.666666667
73 Jan-2012 486600 488842 489088 0.994913998 508623.355082005 508623.355082005 486600 0 0 0 0 489087.5
74 Feb-2012 544400 491167 490004 1.1110109608 476089.316764307 476089.316764307 544400 0 0 0 0 490004.166666667
75 Mar-2012 535500 494550 492858 1.0865191147 491178.678895991 491178.678895991 535500 0 0 0 0 492858.333333333
76 Apr-2012 456600 495833 495192 0.922067213 496898.924381006 496898.924381006 456600 0 0 0 0 495191.666666667
77 May-2012 386900 498825 497329 0.7779555794 487439.8796537 487439.8796537 386900 0 0 0 0 497329.166666667
78 Jun-2012 412100 502683 500754 0.822958704 617567.846421562 617567.846421562 502683.333333333 90583 90583.3333333334 8205340277.77778 373293916.666667 500754.166666667
79 Jul-2012 489900 501692 502188 0.9755320473 477031.636205197 477031.636205197 489900 0 0 0 0 502187.5
80 Aug-2012 488700 505992 503842 0.9699475695 526776.261006377 526776.261006377 488700 0 0 0 0 503841.666666667
81 Sep-2012 465300 509750 507871 0.9161778339 511374.901335215 511374.901335215 465300 0 0 0 0 507870.833333333
82 Oct-2012 504800 509350 509550 0.9906780493 505441.810410912 505441.810410912 504800 0 0 0 0 509550
83 Nov-2012 548300 510950 510150 1.0747819269 523568.448856044 523568.448856044 548300 0 0 0 0 510150
84 Dec-2012 713100 513483 512217 1.392184297 519945.504758438 519945.504758438 713100 0 0 0 0 512216.666666667
85 Jan-2013 474700 516292 514888 0.9219489694 496184.76501732 496184.76501732 474700 0 0 0 0 514887.5
86 Feb-2013 596000 519192 517742 1.1511532457 521214.60836063 521214.60836063 596000 0 0 0 0 517741.666666667
87 Mar-2013 580600 521108 520150 1.116216476 532545.921507026 532545.921507026 580600 0 0 0 0 520150
88 Apr-2013 451800 523600 522354 0.8649304032 491675.28260039 491675.28260039 451800 0 0 0 0 522354.166666667
89 May-2013 406100 525850 524725 0.773929201 511629.193919275 511629.193919275 406100 0 0 0 0 524725
90 Jun-2013 442500 531858 528854 0.8367145952 653410.57428738 653410.57428738 531858.333333333 89358 89358.3333333334 7984911736.11112 395410625 528854.166666667
91 Jul-2013 523600 538283 535071 0.9785620284 509846.427264832 509846.427264832 523600 0 0 0 0 535070.833333333
92 Aug-2013 523500 541217 539750 0.9698934692 564287.646074971 564287.646074971 523500 0 0 0 0 539750
93 Sep-2013 488300 542483 541850 0.901171911 536652.40559206 536652.40559206 488300 0 0 0 0 541850
94 Oct-2013 534700 548700 545592 0.9800369629 535379.825726455 535379.825726455 534700 0 0 0 0 545591.666666667
95 Nov-2013 575300 554033 551367 1.043407291 549350.590236882 549350.590236882 575300 0 0 0 0 551366.666666667
96 Dec-2013 785200 555075 554554 1.4159121817 572516.071148963 572516.071148963 785200 0 0 0 0 554554.166666667
97 Jan-2014 551800 560342 557708 0.9894060516 576774.285520449 576774.285520449 551800 0 0 0 0 557708.333333333
98 Feb-2014 631200 561617 560979 1.1251754744 551997.753015486 551997.753015486 631200 0 0 0 0 560979.166666667
99 Mar-2014 595800 564050 562833 1.0585726977 546487.874670834 546487.874670834 595800 0 0 0 0 562833.333333333
100 Apr-2014 526400 568500 566275 0.9295836828 572859.381940783 572859.381940783 526400 0 0 0 0 566275
101 May-2014 470100 571425 569963 0.8247911047 592260.241471192 592260.241471192 470100 0 0 0 0 569962.5
102 Jun-2014 455000 573675 572550 0.7946904201 704784.127109624 704784.127109624 573675 118675 118675 14083755625 539971250 572550
103 Jul-2014 586800 573517 573596 1.0230199836 571386.332160052 571386.332160052 586800 0 0 0 0 573595.833333333
104 Aug-2014 538800 581225 577371 0.9331957364 580779.720544784 580779.720544784 538800 0 0 0 0 577370.833333333
105 Sep-2014 517500 587933 584579 0.8852522113 568743.845779011 568743.845779011 517500 0 0 0 0 584579.166666667
106 Oct-2014 588100 590100 589017 0.9984437339 588847.719300034 588847.719300034 588100 0 0 0 0 589016.666666667
107 Nov-2014 610400 591483 590792 1.0331899288 582867.374031971 582867.374031971 610400 0 0 0 0 590791.666666667
108 Dec-2014 812200 594317 592900 1.3698768764 592202.691017814 592202.691017814 812200 0 0 0 0 592900
109 Jan-2015 549900 597708 596013 0.9226316562 574788.292148776 574788.292148776 549900 0 0 0 0 596012.5
110 Feb-2015 723700 600650 599179 1.2078190302 632890.95984998 632890.95984998 723700 0 0 0 0 599179.166666667
111 Mar-2015 676300 605183 602917 1.1217138908 620325.192413368 620325.192413368 676300 0 0 0 0 602916.666666667
112 Apr-2015 552400 608275 606729 0.9104556536 601154.108252447 601154.108252447 552400 0 0 0 0 606729.166666667
113 May-2015 486700 613158 610717 0.7969325656 613173.91942997 613173.91942997 486700 0 0 0 0 610716.666666667
114 Jun-2015 489000 620367 616763 0.7928497598 762146.824690938 762146.824690938 620366.666666667 131367 131366.666666667 17257201111.1111 642383000 616762.5
115 Jul-2015 627500 626250 623308 1.0067248686 611017.251926436 611017.251926436 627500 0 0 0 0 623308.333333333
116 Aug-2015 574100 632342 629296 0.91228953 618830.062295398 618830.062295398 574100 0 0 0 0 629295.833333333
117 Sep-2015 571900 638867 635604 0.8997738372 628530.63845607 628530.63845607 571900 0 0 0 0 635604.166666667
118 Oct-2015 625200 643733 641300 0.974894745 625994.888805273 625994.888805273 625200 0 0 0 0 641300
119 Nov-2015 669000 648342 646038 1.0355436023 638824.16976964 638824.16976964 669000 0 0 0 0 646037.5
120 Dec-2015 898700 653908 651125 1.380226531 655272.78800506 655272.78800506 898700 0 0 0 0 651125
121 Jan-2016 620500 661283 657596 0.9435887038 648583.624801447 648583.624801447 620500 0 0 0 0 657595.833333333
122 Feb-2016 796800 666158 663721 1.2005047303 696818.456278105 696818.456278105 796800 0 0 0 0 663720.833333333
123 Mar-2016 754600 672433 669296 1.1274536048 692144.595882194 692144.595882194 754600 0 0 0 0 669295.833333333
124 Apr-2016 610800 678192 675313 0.9044701527 664708.416583264 664708.416583264 610800 0 0 0 0 675312.5
125 May-2016 542000 682483 680338 0.7966634207 682844.183955299 682844.183955299 542000 0 0 0 0 680337.5
126 Jun-2016 555800 688575 685529 0.8107605439 845943.662046471 845943.662046471 688575 132775 132775 17629200625 737963450 685529.166666667
127 Jul-2016 716000 697350 692963 1.0332449447 697192.593433193 697192.593433193 716000 0 0 0 0 692962.5
128 Aug-2016 632600 628986.74628716 583522.542043355 -49077 49077.4579566447 2408596879.48623 310463999.033734
129 Sep-2016 647200 630639.482736877 573818.837317392 -73381 73381.1626826082 5384795036.65142 474922884.881841
130 Oct-2016 694300 632292.219186593 631489.334026217 -62811 62810.665973783 3945179760.07014 436094453.855975
131 Nov-2016 720500 633944.955636309 663890.308774047 -56610 56609.6912259528 3204657140.69772 407872825.28299
132 Dec-2016 971800 635597.692086026 871715.804980598 -100084 100084.195019402 10016846092.6817 972618207.198551
133 Jan-2017 725800 637250.428535742 609657.530326143 -116142 116142.469673857 13489073261.9428 842962044.892856
134 Feb-2017 638903.164985458 730574.853857253
135 Mar-2017 640555.901435175 698356.219348787 mae mse mape
136 Apr-2017 642208.637884891 590124.9724449 11507.1226255557 1110049475.07834 60723670.4772878
137 May-2017 643861.374334607 511057.827084315 rmse
138 Jun-2017 645514.110784323 525430.828050696 33317.404987
139 Jul-2017 647166.84723404 664624.763636383
140 Aug-2017 648819.583683756 601921.829090193
141 Sep-2017 650472.320133472 591864.735183205
142 Oct-2017 652125.056583189 651296.987670189
143 Nov-2017 653777.793032905 684659.980377279
144 Dec-2017 655430.529482621 898916.34084076
145 Jan-2018 657083.265932338 628631.607274748
146 Feb-2018 658736.002382054 753253.364587314
147 Mar-2018 660388.73883177 719978.665277727
148 Apr-2018 662041.475281486 608349.349900669
149 May-2018 663694.211731203 526799.92187187
150 Jun-2018 665346.948180919 541574.215161516
151 Jul-2018 666999.684630635 684992.609924071
152 Aug-2018 668652.421080352 620321.116137032
153 Sep-2018 670305.157530068 609910.633049019
154 Oct-2018 671957.893979784 671104.641314161
155 Nov-2018 673610.630429501 705429.651980511
156 Dec-2018 675263.366879217 926116.876700923
157 Jan-2019 676916.103328933 647605.684223352
158 Feb-2019 678568.83977865 775931.875317376
159 Mar-2019 680221.576228366 741601.111206668
160 Apr-2019 681874.312678082 626573.72735644
161 May-2019 683527.049127798 542542.016659424
162 Jun-2019 685179.785577515 557717.602272336
163 Jul-2019 686832.522027231 705360.456211761

MA
Tourism
CentredMA

WES ADD
Tourism
Deaseaonslised Values
Deasonalised

WES MULT
Tourism
Tourism - Australia
Tourism
Forecast
Forecast
deaseas(values)
Tourism
CentredMA
Level Trend Seasonal forecasts alpha 0.603373488 error AbsErr SqErr Abs%Err
time Year Tourism beta 0.1761958237
1 Jan-2006 461400 3642 gamma 0.7278304307
2 Feb-2006 485000 27242
3 Mar-2006 473400 15642
4 Apr-2006 435000 -22758
5 May-2006 342900 -114858
Jun-2006 379700 -78058
Jul-2006 478200 20442
Aug-2006 410200 -47558
Sep-2006 423500 -34258
Oct-2006 472900 15142
Nov-2006 490000 32242
Dec-2006 640900 457758 38811.1111111111 183142
Jan-2007 451000 466876.764685594 33579.3849437669 -10564.4416317808 500211 -49211 49211.1111111111 2421733456.79012 10.9115545701
Feb-2007 510200 489898.431178663 31719.1590451763 22190.4522625361 527698 -17498 17497.816296028 306173575.129542 3.4295994308
Mar-2007 520000 511203.812193743 29884.2948475543 10659.3188390864 537259 -17259 17259.2568905059 297881948.412475 3.3190878636
Apr-2007 434900 490748.793477118 21014.7180306836 -46842.5771931047 518330 -83430 83429.7737079639 6960527140.96207 19.1836683624
May-2007 364700 492331.760821415 17590.9247129728 -124155.222563985 396905 -32205 32205.1781744681 1037173501.24924 8.830594509
Jun-2007 398000 489489.833228401 13990.7414708104 -87834.187687419 431864 -33864 33864.3522010542 1146794349.99705 8.5086312063
Jul-2007 479600 476737.709330859 9278.7602796998 7646.861862281 523922 -44322 44322.2413658785 1964461079.69519 9.2415015358
Aug-2007 432500 482421.488143065 8645.3395589243 -49278.3093164008 438458 -5958 5958.1362772257 35499387.8979934 1.3776037635
Sep-2007 431500 475796.353179062 5954.7457223896 -41564.3096414073 456808 -25308 25308.4943686557 640519887.208276 5.8652362384
Oct-2007 460900 460034.018398301 2128.2868352361 4751.3886567504 496893 -35993 35992.7655681183 1295479173.24152 7.8092353153
Nov-2007 494400 462159.908694257 2127.8645750238 32240.5200710469 494404 -4 3.9719002036 15.7759912275 0.0008033779
Dec-2007 611100 442367.552378497 -1734.3868000512 172654.198562426 647429 -36329 36329.4399359475 1319828206.05962 5.9449255336
Jan-2008 436300 444392.952345359 -1071.9280737978 -8765.6165198802 430069 6231 6231.2760533351 38828801.2528669 1.4282090427
Feb-2008 535700 485670.918491873 6389.946421064 42452.2537775115 465511 70189 70188.5234659024 4926428826.32353 13.1022071058
Mar-2008 507700 495065.554012015 6919.360091775 12096.8764826314 502720 4980 4979.8162479762 24798569.8636079 0.9808580358
Apr-2008 419100 480237.923566771 3087.6311815677 -57247.1653017997 455142 -36042 36042.3369106858 1299050049.98338 8.5999372252
May-2008 376200 493600.804817533 4898.0873310161 -119239.1517862 359170 17030 17029.6678156468 290009585.911276 4.5267591216
Jun-2008 377300 478367.514042166 1351.0225837707 -97465.8053082918 410665 -33365 33364.7044611301 1113203503.77855 8.8430173499
Jul-2008 523800 501702.209223534 5224.4538845915 18164.6876784572 487365 36435 36434.6015117824 1327480187.32238 6.9558231218
Aug-2008 413800 480469.728938304 562.8525765215 -61936.3137509571 457648 -43848 43848.353791725 1922678130.24428 10.5965088912
Sep-2008 397200 455529.026883359 -3930.7672385095 -53766.1810128185 439468 -42268 42268.2718734184 1786606807.16521 10.6415588805
Oct-2008 450200 447887.724899217 -4584.5479643053 2976.1275866918 456350 -6150 6149.6483015995 37818174.2333655 1.3659814086
Nov-2008 468400 438992.859555301 -5344.0078853233 30178.3001571579 475544 -7144 7143.6970059584 51032406.9129384 1.5251274564
Dec-2008 606700 433888.360635808 -5301.8074058103 172768.788768991 606303 397 396.9497675964 157569.117994866 0.0654276854
Jan-2009 446100 444442.643308257 -2508.0305541446 -1179.4594376935 419821 26279 26279.0632898826 690589167.393656 5.8908458395
Feb-2009 495500 448639.982857397 -1326.5723457246 45660.3580861176 484387 11113 11113.1334683756 123501735.48593 2.2428120017
Mar-2009 481900 460883.107091756 1064.351520276 18589.1358798753 459410 22490 22489.7130056963 505787191.078586 4.6668837945
Apr-2009 448700 488495.715107863 5742.0434407973 -44545.4687901428 404700 44000 43999.7066897672 1935974188.78555 9.8060411611
May-2009 368800 490497.683565732 5083.0578485594 -121028.54603028 374999 -6199 6198.6067624601 38422725.7956166 1.6807502067
Jun-2009 357600 471135.103100425 775.8384704915 -109161.529241998 398115 -40515 40514.9361059995 1641460047.67322 11.3296801191
Jul-2009 452500 449238.803087398 -3218.897644174 7317.4735748441 490076 -37576 37575.6292493737 1411927913.48639 8.3040064639
Aug-2009 408300 460631.44419039 -644.4055394011 -54945.5974015063 384084 24216 24216.4083077332 586434431.326852 5.9310331393
Sep-2009 432300 475722.501741568 2128.1173408123 -46237.7364734076 406221 26079 26079.14236183 680121666.328598 6.03264917
Oct-2009 477700 475964.023038609 1795.7069969307 2073.5082228991 480827 -3127 3126.7466690718 9776544.7325515 0.6545419027
Nov-2009 478500 459997.603078691 -1333.9055925202 21680.2224757538 507938 -29438 29438.0301926976 866597621.626175 6.1521484206
Dec-2009 642300 465220.867160146 -178.559680812 175905.988350717 631432 10868 10867.5137448377 118102854.994237 1.6919685108
Jan-2010 441100 451307.80845992 -2598.5210483545 -7750.5665953945 463863 -22763 22762.84804164 518147250.966792 5.1604733715
Feb-2010 549000 481671.794957621 3209.3351192444 61430.8764694601 494370 54630 54630.3545023164 2984475633.04877 9.9508842445
Mar-2010 520900 495397.769501241 5062.3230649561 23620.6965140708 503470 17430 17429.7340432598 303795628.81877 3.346080638
Apr-2010 422600 480358.931817449 1520.5824899287 -54162.6292768484 455915 -33315 33314.6237760539 1109864157.34002 7.883252195
May-2010 370300 487580.809536129 2525.1268987951 -118300.82936345 360851 9449 9449.0317229025 89284200.5004177 2.5517233926
Jun-2010 398700 500819.190398214 4412.7575051381 -104035.900727923 380944 17756 17755.5928070738 315261075.930612 4.4533716597
Jul-2010 505300 500857.839180161 3642.0578157945 5224.7334538617 512549 -7249 7249.421478196 52554111.7685302 1.4346767224
Aug-2010 446100 502415.664201099 3274.8247017662 -55942.7737103939 449554 -3454 3454.2995944496 11932185.6882149 0.7743330183
Sep-2010 468800 511330.370272586 4268.5482451553 -43539.4025345597 459453 9347 9347.2475705423 87371037.1450084 1.9938668026
Oct-2010 486200 496609.290619811 922.6551163238 -7011.8526356071 517672 -31472 31472.4267406401 990513644.94496 6.473144126
Nov-2010 510500 492275.254414194 -3.5519409712 19165.2212425377 519212 -8712 8712.1682118885 75901874.9522408 1.7065951443
Dec-2010 670600 493733.259609766 253.9683225558 176605.252921471 668178 2422 2422.3091760604 5867581.74442627 0.3612152067
Jan-2011 464700 480992.577461855 -2035.6348205074 -13967.7020436999 486237 -21537 21536.6613369276 463827781.541513 4.6345300919
Feb-2011 547600 483308.581380456 -1268.8942485172 63512.8660946999 540388 7212 7212.180889192 52015553.1784268 1.3170527555
Mar-2011 492900 474340.409943388 -2625.4747344861 19937.0692211275 505660 -12760 12760.3836460097 162827390.793352 2.5888382321
Apr-2011 454600 494068.531600571 1313.1355939297 -43467.8178358165 417552 37048 37047.6940679466 1372531635.75217 8.1495147532
May-2011 378200 496056.939976003 1432.1158378744 -117977.753159384 377081 1119 1119.1621689485 1252523.96040539 0.2959180775
Jun-2011 382900 491121.561820393 310.1899889219 -107082.352243779 393453 -10553 10553.1550859542 111369082.268202 2.7561125845
Jul-2011 495800 490914.971308662 219.1354229482 4977.4859902303 496656 -856 856.4852631762 733567.006038012 0.172748137
Aug-2011 460800 506585.697449308 2941.6411766022 -48550.1445202487 435191 25609 25608.6669787837 655803824.430248 5.5574364103
Sep-2011 424700 484615.292614669 -1447.7572898751 -55458.2736652845 465988 -41288 41287.936091351 1704693666.68348 9.721670848
Oct-2011 489400 491158.805256632 -39.7289019944 -3188.5248990802 476156 13244 13244.3173108137 175411941.029519 2.7062356581
Nov-2011 512400 492395.635092973 185.1954163811 19775.9755373138 510284 2116 2115.7024028248 4476196.6573185 0.412900547
Dec-2011 666800 491141.131027068 -68.4736197504 175916.445884562 669186 -2386 2386.0834308254 5693394.13885943 0.3578409464
Jan-2012 486600 496801.715608168 940.9625088528 -11226.7025141733 477105 9495 9495.044636382 90155872.6468859 1.951303871
Feb-2012 544400 487572.489614068 -850.9822313946 58647.0607695501 561256 -16856 16855.544211721 284109370.673283 3.0961690323
Mar-2012 535500 504123.657615762 2215.2039627082 28262.9203347649 506659 28841 28841.4233961991 831827703.518819 5.385886722
Apr-2012 456600 502555.080042143 1548.5174582941 -45278.1229588057 462871 -6271 6271.0437426532 39325989.6222693 1.373421757
May-2012 386900 504570.702500621 1630.8194085461 -117754.272346158 386126 774 774.1556589472 599316.984279954 0.2000919253
Jun-2012 412100 514033.810785135 3010.8359983383 -103335.087096262 399119 12981 12980.8303346114 168501956.175966 3.1499224301
Jul-2012 489900 497663.003490207 -404.1286059693 -4295.4299561304 522022 -32122 32122.1327737041 1031831413.93148 6.5568754386
Aug-2012 488700 521388.546733565 3847.4188006243 -37005.590970973 448709 39991 39991.2696360106 1599301647.10011 8.1831941142
Sep-2012 465300 522534.244973115 3371.3869210156 -56750.8796272413 469778 -4478 4477.6918689051 20049724.4728588 0.962323634
Oct-2012 504800 515094.924551882 1466.5854362967 -8360.7788193761 522717 -17917 17917.1069950506 321022723.07209 3.5493476615
Nov-2012 548300 523779.374071763 2738.3429437061 23229.2764750409 536337 11963 11962.5144745071 143101752.552791 2.1817462109
Dec-2012 713100 532953.200348783 3872.2482303912 178995.426088721 702434 10666 10665.8370999689 113760081.043073 1.4957000561
Jan-2013 474700 506114.494631746 -1538.8935963405 -25919.991946757 525599 -50899 50898.7460650014 2590682350.98949 10.7222974647
Feb-2013 596000 524352.577909094 1945.7271337975 68109.1193498228 563223 32777 32777.3381950441 1074353899.1523 5.4995533884
Mar-2013 580600 542009.411309695 4713.9584433834 35779.7116424978 554561 26039 26038.7746223431 678017783.833181 4.4848044475
Apr-2013 451800 516768.744032819 -563.9215083905 -59609.556176605 501445 -49645 49645.2467942724 2464650529.26422 10.9883237703
May-2013 406100 520820.297744551 249.3059496884 -115546.053305022 398451 7649 7649.4498217298 58514082.575162 1.8836369913
Jun-2013 442500 536012.439796213 2882.1712647744 -96185.8654808794 417735 24765 24765.4834020223 613329168.135841 5.5967194129
Jul-2013 523600 532257.996792744 1712.8275473421 -7470.6388559466 534599 -10999 10999.1811048572 120981984.977449 2.100683939
Aug-2013 523500 549981.199035098 4533.7887041374 -29345.6182550289 496965 26535 26534.7666308867 704093840.155619 5.0687233297
Sep-2013 488300 548804.595817011 3527.6414958718 -59482.9484985098 497764 -9464 9464.108111994 89569342.3555116 1.9381749154
Oct-2013 534700 546738.085062925 2541.9752324053 -11037.2342065737 543971 -9271 9271.4584935068 85959942.5968188 1.7339552073
Nov-2013 575300 550963.87250199 2838.6559110783 24034.8763318517 572509 2791 2790.6632296293 7787801.26120493 0.4850796506
Dec-2013 785200 585420.533383002 8409.6163398391 194122.683258894 732798 52402 52402.0454982114 2745974372.39662 6.673719498
Jan-2014 551800 584109.707633457 6696.9150393771 -30570.6214673015 567910 -16110 16110.1577760841 259537183.570324 2.9195646568
Feb-2014 631200 574083.678736463 3750.4021581722 60108.226383665 658916 -27716 27715.7420226566 768162355.866453 4.3909603965
Mar-2014 595800 567085.71075722 1856.5842286048 30637.2822139648 613614 -17814 17813.7925371327 317331204.556006 2.9898946857
Apr-2014 526400 579240.227900899 3671.0370007663 -54682.6330618905 509333 17067 17067.2611907801 291291404.554308 3.2422608645
May-2014 470100 584561.363719506 3961.7775211274 -114756.583216779 467365 2735 2734.7884033569 7479067.61113546 0.5817460973
Jun-2014 455000 565994.818933521 -7.618783878 -106964.272451095 492337 -37337 37337.2757597544 1394072161.15994 8.2059946725
Jul-2014 586800 583052.677214145 2999.2470039752 694.1349978089 558517 28283 28283.4387063038 799952905.053246 4.8199452465
Aug-2014 538800 575247.733932199 1095.5937973638 -34514.7541674951 556706 -17906 17906.3059630914 320635793.243844 3.3233678476
Sep-2014 517500 576729.257943912 1163.5930893636 -59298.3047928824 516860 640 639.6207689471 409114.72806843 0.1235982162
Oct-2014 588100 590711.148608691 3422.1235888251 -4904.4726964307 566856 21244 21244.3831732986 451323816.413931 3.6123759859
Nov-2014 610400 589446.177324147 2596.2770469507 21792.3917222794 618168 -7768 7768.1485293674 60344131.574313 1.2726324589
Dec-2014 812200 607751.200088563 5364.0924376019 201638.345189966 786165 26035 26034.8623700086 677814058.62529 3.205474313
Jan-2015 549900 593418.363485175 1893.5758012799 -39994.3821172557 582545 -32645 32644.6710588635 1065674548.5414 5.9364740969
Feb-2015 723700 636510.181085281 9152.5339491463 79819.0335406147 655420 68280 68279.8343298802 4662135776.11589 9.4348258021
Mar-2015 676300 645662.716694675 9152.5342416749 30637.2830082903 676300 0 0.0027516078 0.0000075713 0.0000004069
Apr-2015 552400 626014.654798664 4077.9894827523 -68461.9345973089 600133 -47733 47732.6178744589 2278402809.14911 8.6409518238
May-2015 486700 612814.404234624 1033.6357459861 -123023.150980443 515336 -28636 28636.0610646373 820023993.297634 5.8837191421
Jun-2015 489000 603057.44878797 -867.6213571834 -112126.902039664 506884 -17884 17883.7675295149 319829141.049732 3.6572121737
Jul-2015 627500 617042.491880675 1749.356089391 7800.2150622981 602884 24616 24616.0375714048 605949305.716814 3.9228745134
Aug-2015 574100 612651.259384833 667.4100257427 -37452.6454985069 584277 -10177 10177.0938025713 103573238.266335 1.7727040241
Sep-2015 571900 624106.767375142 2568.227832538 -54136.8680595336 554020 17880 17879.6353823063 319681361.404219 3.1263569474
Oct-2015 625200 628744.251002042 2932.8220616279 -3914.4619547046 621771 3429 3429.4774887501 11761315.8458439 0.5485408651
Nov-2015 669000 641047.786266084 4583.9025927859 26275.6976302787 653469 15531 15530.5352140506 241197524.034864 2.3214551889
Dec-2015 898700 676663.166801901 10051.5194089316 216484.985503331 847270 51430 51429.9659511644 2645041397.73793 5.7227067933
Jan-2016 620500 670894.049873799 7263.9893584038 -47563.5767800332 646720 -26220 26220.3040935765 687504346.759625 4.2256735042
Feb-2016 796800 701582.764247152 11391.3280768643 91026.3136893366 757977 38823 38822.9272271825 1507219678.48711 4.8723553247
Mar-2016 754600 719604.337117947 12559.5495195237 33809.4445091308 743611 10989 10988.624667694 120749872.087453 1.4562184823
Apr-2016 610800 700244.251313653 6935.4430821137 -83733.5032108478 663702 -52902 52901.9520401623 2798616529.65963 8.6610923445
May-2016 542000 681743.553753768 2453.7013304845 -135192.768933066 584157 -42157 42156.5434153231 1777174152.72802 7.7779600397
Jun-2016 555800 674380.155416951 723.9693684667 -116823.776224917 572070 -16270 16270.3530445885 264724388.195549 2.9273755028
Jul-2016 716000 695073.168688749 4242.4315070941 17354.1658209064 682904 33096 33095.660152284 1095322720.91548 4.622298904
Aug-2016 632600 681659.109151292 1131.4315242204 -45900.1829382593 661863 -29263 29262.9546973368 856320517.618384 4.625822747
Sep-2016 647200 693980.902918567 3103.1266169005 -48782.9727824897 628654 18546 18546.327384021 343966259.435288 2.8656253684
Oct-2016 694300 697766.102487197 3223.3050224396 -3588.1322903428 693170 1130 1130.4324192371 1277877.45446224 0.1628161341
Nov-2016 720500 696907.522424764 2504.0939177479 24322.768421852 727265 -6765 6765.1051399149 45766647.554103 0.9389458903
Dec-2016 971800 733142.244677138 8447.2897603739 232623.002111736 915897 55903 55903.3981541573 3125189925.18224 5.7525620657
Jan-2017 725800 760761.14919318 11825.2482135034 -38391.1464811489 694026 31774 31774.0423425215 1009589766.78435 4.3777958587
Feb-2017 863612.711096021 1
Mar-2017 818221.090129318 2
Apr-2017 712503.390622843 3 MAE MSE MAPE
May-2017 672869.373114128 4 22805.0699172361 810256316.5619 4.465962542
Jun-2017 703063.614035781 5 RMSE
Jul-2017 849066.804295107 6 405128158.28095
Aug-2017 797637.703749445 7
Sep-2017 806580.162118718 8
Oct-2017 863600.250824368 9
Nov-2017 903336.399750067 10
Dec-2017 1123461.88165345 11
Jan-2018 864272.981274073 12
Feb-2018 1005515.68965806 13
Mar-2018 960124.068691359 14
Apr-2018 854406.369184884 15
May-2018 814772.351676169 16
Jun-2018 844966.592597822 17
Jul-2018 990969.782857148 18
Aug-2018 939540.682311486 19
Sep-2018 948483.140680759 20
Oct-2018 1005503.22938641 21
Nov-2018 1045239.37831211 22
Dec-2018 1265364.8602155 23
Jan-2019 1006175.95983611 24
Feb-2019 1147418.6682201 25
Mar-2019 1102027.0472534 26
Apr-2019 996309.347746925 27
May-2019 956675.33023821 28
Jun-2019 986869.571159862 29
Jul-2019 1132872.76141919 30
Errors
Tourism
forecasts
Winters (Additive) Forecast
Tourism
Level
Smoothing
Tourism
y = 59.715x - 2E+06
level trend seasonal forecasts alpha 0.4813629324 error AbsErr SqErr Abs%Err
time dates Sales Col D Col E Col F beta 1.7810208679
Jan-2006 461400 1.007955435 gamma 0.0275104353
Feb-2006 485000 1.0595110229
Mar-2006 473400 1.0341701407
Apr-2006 435000 0.9502830824
May-2006 342900 0.749085216
Jun-2006 379700 0.8294769802
Jul-2006 478200 1.044656023
Aug-2006 410200 0.8961060239
Sep-2006 423500 0.9251606561
Oct-2006 472900 1.0330778613
Nov-2006 490000 1.070433817
Dec-2006 640900 457758 38811.1111111111 1.4000837414 500519.870382844
Jan-2007 451000 472920.55165485 -3308.0604501159 1.0064614291 497559.610932179 -46560 46559.6109321787 2167797370.15585 10.3236387876
Feb-2007 510200 475355.342969935 6920.0783850202 1.0598904279 498754.840369415 11445 11445.1596305852 130991678.969578 2.2432692337
Mar-2007 520000 492164.154297595 24532.118113047 1.0347860419 491007.726417424 28992 28992.2735825759 840551927.486928 5.5754372274
Apr-2007 434900 488275.078539225 -26086.6212628538 0.9486435533 346218.54035077 88681 88681.4596492304 7864401285.51808 20.3912300872
May-2007 364700 474064.662308302 -4934.8522694114 0.7496414528 389132.378158271 -24432 24432.3781582713 596941102.468773 6.6993085161
Jun-2007 398000 474275.877446286 4230.4011708301 0.8297437503 499874.4660058 -101874 101874.4660058 10378406823.9669 25.5965994989
Jul-2007 479600 469164.087317585 -12408.2364856399 1.0440394483 409301.66939163 70298 70298.3306083697 4941855286.32365 14.6577002937
Aug-2007 432500 469217.341046367 9785.937631498 0.8968114373 443154.987573667 -10655 10654.9875736666 113528760.19499 2.4635809419
Sep-2007 431500 472939.165425261 -1014.3746167563 0.924809041 487535.053590888 -56035 56035.0535908875 3139927230.93364 12.9861074371
Oct-2007 460900 459514.179778176 -23117.9318452827 1.032250842 467133.301386359 -6233 6233.3013863595 38854046.1731912 1.3524194807
Nov-2007 494400 448657.798150335 -1279.8550350965 1.0713009353 626366.584426039 -131967 131966.584426039 17415179405.0749 26.6922703127
Dec-2007 611100 442129.137183513 -10628.0879311073 1.3995910741 434289.162667882 176811 176810.837332118 31262072198.0849 28.9332085309
Jan-2008 436300 432462.777667232 -8915.2295550396 1.0065277712 448913.992022903 -12614 12613.9920229032 159112794.753866 2.8911281281
Feb-2008 535700 462962.53497198 61283.6845506276 1.0625650651 542482.670480227 -6783 6782.670480227 46004618.8433425 1.2661322532
Mar-2008 507700 508065.977829397 32466.3364471979 1.033809246 512772.495300228 -5072 5072.4953002283 25730208.5708382 0.9991127241
Apr-2008 419100 493000.797444947 -52188.2869133671 0.9459325785 330451.330796419 88649 88648.6692035811 7858586551.56595 21.1521520409
May-2008 376200 470188.839013955 131.5671363122 0.7510297011 390245.417644738 -14045 14045.4176447379 197273756.815116 3.7334975132
Jun-2008 377300 462810.32343356 -13244.0469018714 0.8293446574 469364.927343303 -92065 92064.9273433032 8475950846.7277 24.4009878991
Jul-2008 523800 474664.012292967 31455.5442262482 1.0456757129 453893.806929181 69906 69906.1930708187 4886875829.65458 13.3459704221
Aug-2008 413800 484599.232768539 -6872.6014578777 0.8956309656 441805.907748336 -28006 28005.9077483357 784330868.808289 6.7679815728
Sep-2008 397200 454509.264692913 -48223.2159019979 0.9234087746 419389.115942734 -22189 22189.1159427337 492356866.320077 5.5863836714
Oct-2008 450200 420653.891272964 -22633.7886146291 1.0332958997 426399.308234476 23801 23800.6917655241 566472928.517487 5.2866929732
Nov-2008 468400 416892.088563499 10977.6121013656 1.0727383888 598842.613925574 -130443 130442.613925574 17015275527.7363 27.8485512224
Dec-2008 606700 430572.10029552 15790.6422369942 1.3998514455 449276.496366847 157424 157423.503633153 24782159496.1375 25.9475034833
Jan-2009 446100 444843.611466595 13085.0381075023 1.0064258881 486578.985362397 -40479 40478.985362397 1638548255.96915 9.073971164
Feb-2009 495500 461970.045161757 20282.8479846018 1.0628405904 498557.499849207 -3057 3057.4998492065 9348305.32789798 0.6170534509
Mar-2009 481900 474496.817250694 6469.1149613322 1.0333083616 454961.344432293 26939 26938.6555677065 725691163.795525 5.5900924606
Apr-2009 448700 477779.680691461 794.3345127963 0.945745596 359423.299602556 89277 89276.7003974443 7970329233.85503 19.8967462441
May-2009 368800 484583.892034318 11498.0505607011 0.7513057857 411422.908707906 -42623 42622.9087079064 1816712346.72252 11.5571878275
Jun-2009 357600 464842.393470089 -44140.2383348891 0.8276926102 439918.025977456 -82318 82318.0259774555 6776257400.82505 23.0195822085
Jul-2009 452500 426494.099842517 -33824.6639453779 1.0460966302 351686.906027423 100813 100813.093972577 10163279916.3237 22.2791367895
Aug-2009 408300 423096.526935156 20366.6201431181 0.8975401085 409497.761226799 -1198 1197.7612267992 1434631.95642358 0.2933532272
Sep-2009 432300 455349.705688872 41536.8290762235 0.9241232601 513430.818964478 -81131 81130.8189644784 6582209785.84697 18.7672493557
Oct-2009 477700 480241.262293565 11891.2514523851 1.0322343397 527929.439857904 -50229 50229.439857904 2522996628.43879 10.5148502947
Nov-2009 478500 469952.362121474 -27612.0614442075 1.0712376923 619210.70928822 -140711 140710.70928822 19799503708.394 29.4066268105
Dec-2009 642300 450279.949359169 -13471.3814578667 1.4005830712 439615.450872491 202685 202684.549127509 41081026455.0218 31.5560562241
Jan-2010 441100 437518.61215767 -12206.7778201362 1.0064743008 452038.681117818 -10939 10938.6811178181 119654744.597309 2.4798642298
Feb-2010 549000 469225.837252316 66004.9777645369 1.0657889307 553058.476533156 -4058 4058.4765331565 16471231.7701818 0.7392489131
Mar-2010 520900 520249.905986496 39323.6661612146 1.0324264106 529214.241508535 -8314 8314.2415085345 69126611.8622385 1.596130065
Apr-2010 422600 505309.355488506 -57322.0360896002 0.9427352328 336575.464964615 86025 86024.5350353848 7400220628.05415 20.3560187022
May-2010 370300 469594.688046986 -18838.8616267527 0.7523304552 373087.26651938 -2787 2787.2665193795 7768854.65005397 0.7527049742
Jun-2010 398700 465651.477708202 7690.6041582254 0.8284774047 495161.55675673 -96462 96461.5567567304 9304831931.93191 24.1940197534
Jul-2010 505300 478007.301721558 15999.4580735987 1.0463992503 443390.880795424 61909 61909.119204576 3832739040.6864 12.2519531377
Aug-2010 446100 495459.697164895 18587.1698488697 0.897618124 475042.66661296 -28943 28942.6666129603 837677950.668966 6.4879324396
Sep-2010 468800 510795.148940719 12795.7921042148 0.9239488851 540468.549317875 -71669 71668.5493178748 5136380961.32866 15.2876598374
Oct-2010 486200 498283.830991807 -32276.6990068902 1.0306804062 499204.404653711 -13004 13004.404653711 169114540.397461 2.674702726
Nov-2010 510500 471082.831746186 -23236.7718128261 1.0715798079 627245.610062705 -116746 116745.610062705 13629537468.9132 22.8688756244
Dec-2010 670600 462746.423004096 3301.0857555868 1.4019198238 469064.840497853 201535 201535.159502147 40616420515.5557 30.0529614528
Jan-2011 464700 463959.951809765 -416.896735168 1.006340071 494039.05701622 -29339 29339.0570162201 860780266.601012 6.3135478838
Feb-2011 547600 487733.822901849 42667.3655759265 1.0673557769 547600.195173395 -0 0.1951733945 0.0380926539 0.0000356416
Mar-2011 492900 504897.534094503 -2755.1750886381 1.0308806343 473387.293722843 19513 19512.7062771568 380745706.258593 3.9587555847
Apr-2011 454600 492549.520546763 -19840.2205667844 0.9421910118 355633.602810873 98966 98966.3971891271 9794347772.59607 21.7699949822
May-2011 378200 487147.938014574 5875.2950770242 0.7529913957 408458.608602116 -30259 30258.6086021161 915583394.536052 8.0006897414
Jun-2011 382900 478173.139757856 -20573.0310407768 0.8277147762 478832.410679878 -95932 95932.4106798781 9203027418.8528 25.0541683677
Jul-2011 495800 465405.512389423 -6671.4442178749 1.0469194255 411768.01368735 84032 84031.98631265 7061374723.64939 16.9487669045
Aug-2011 460800 485028.301856493 40159.1346807061 0.8990604832 485246.346445233 -24446 24446.3464452326 597623854.520335 5.3051967112
Sep-2011 424700 493643.736078189 -16020.8540878832 0.922198896 492276.546028969 -67577 67576.5460289688 4566589573.20534 15.911595486
Oct-2011 489400 476279.436802736 -18413.5580018377 1.0305942334 490639.830435347 -1240 1239.8304353465 1537179.50841154 0.2533368278
Nov-2011 512400 467640.735469532 -1004.3342941743 1.0722437205 654186.821312138 -141787 141786.821312138 20103502697.8002 27.6711204747
Dec-2011 666800 470967.259885594 6709.0154447251 1.4023019395 480704.776816381 186095 186095.223183619 34631432091.7611 27.9087017372
Jan-2012 486600 480496.13911257 11731.2516855768 1.0065151247 525381.749109698 -38782 38781.7491096976 1504024064.00753 7.96994433
Feb-2012 544400 500804.363177665 27007.0184769836 1.0678976074 544110.531892203 289 289.4681077969 83791.7854314924 0.0531719522
Mar-2012 535500 523790.750416371 19846.1903394403 1.0306460855 512209.839240195 23290 23290.1607598054 542431588.217577 4.3492363697
Apr-2012 456600 515226.018817198 -30754.2545097825 0.9406510325 364803.069969254 91797 91796.9300307463 8426676363.06973 20.1044524815
May-2012 386900 498597.613683039 -5595.8219948484 0.7536237242 408064.867654736 -21165 21164.8676547355 447951622.84247 5.470371583
Jun-2012 412100 495348.449249748 -1416.3759078753 0.8278310034 517107.082434761 -105007 105007.082434761 11026487361.4607 25.480971229
Jul-2012 489900 481422.532813567 -23696.1286367503 1.0461130885 411523.722101083 78376 78376.2778989174 6142840937.28833 15.9984237393
Aug-2012 488700 499047.094092036 49896.8823786804 0.90126698 506235.529093858 -17536 17535.5290938577 307494780.601529 3.5881991189
Sep-2012 465300 527576.735186927 11841.3797625901 0.9210918243 555921.198635571 -90621 90621.1986355712 8212201642.14765 19.4758647401
Oct-2012 504800 515540.773813722 -30684.6630704585 1.0291794204 519883.920108498 -15084 15083.9201084977 227524645.83954 2.9880982782
Nov-2012 548300 497612.956301402 -7964.4549227141 1.0730584877 686635.043138649 -138335 138335.043138649 19136584160.1718 25.2298090714
Dec-2012 713100 498733.027957325 8215.2764889191 1.4030590583 510251.135864903 202849 202848.864135097 41147661680.8989 28.4460614409
Jan-2013 474700 489946.077068057 -22066.0452725765 1.0054798247 499647.966518431 -24948 24947.9665184307 622401033.404738 5.2555227551
Feb-2013 596000 511311.440439588 55286.1998452914 1.0705862705 583961.640007073 12038 12038.3599929272 144922111.31931 2.0198590592
Mar-2013 580600 565027.587369312 52489.9028389429 1.0305611982 580868.464759423 -268 268.4647594228 72073.3270519502 0.0462391938
Apr-2013 451800 551468.79358423 -65144.20414668 0.9373116958 366505.748250393 85294 85294.2517496074 7275109381.52541 18.8787631141
May-2013 406100 511614.670570246 -20102.0418982197 0.7547279303 406889.39258704 -789 789.3925870397 623140.656473195 0.1943837939
Jun-2013 442500 512219.302301845 16776.9759414812 0.8288229413 553389.930426318 -110890 110889.930426318 12296576669.9537 25.0598712828
Jul-2013 523600 515288.61276851 -7636.6623194903 1.045288229 457529.940288565 66070 66070.0597114346 4365252790.27254 12.6184224048
Aug-2013 523500 542886.283999603 55116.4210009889 0.9030007801 550815.402456638 -27315 27315.4024566379 746131211.368102 5.217841921
Sep-2013 488300 565332.132258895 -3070.5508185347 0.9195140518 578668.048508459 -90368 90368.0485084585 8166384191.22712 18.5066656786
Oct-2013 534700 541697.053680061 -39696.4038983362 1.028021332 538676.058063159 -3976 3976.0580631589 15809037.7216108 0.743605398
Nov-2013 575300 518429.771110121 -10435.7959710428 1.0740664311 712745.548402209 -137446 137445.548402209 18891278775.584 23.8911087089
Dec-2013 785200 532851.722272658 33836.3704030849 1.4049991387 569793.444085399 215407 215406.555914601 46399984330.9902 27.4333362092
Jan-2014 551800 558073.919824213 18494.3487947287 1.0050197974 617266.072416412 -65466 65466.0724164116 4285806637.63085 11.8640943125
Feb-2014 631200 582833.318363981 29652.5331291369 1.0709273772 631204.153007205 -4 4.153007205 17.2474688447 0.0006579542
Mar-2014 595800 595948.990858598 200.0392493436 1.0297135686 558777.458335805 37023 37022.5416641951 1370668591.27706 6.2139210581
Apr-2014 526400 579521.36146971 -29414.1855800349 0.9365145563 415181.250322377 111219 111218.749677623 12369610279.8538 21.1281819296
May-2014 470100 585134.16949276 32969.6209671984 0.756067071 512298.60161052 -42199 42198.6016105202 1780721977.88339 8.9765159776
Jun-2014 455000 584825.967754866 -26298.8757091699 0.8274250339 583821.794903748 -128822 128821.794903748 16595054842.2232 28.3124823964
Jul-2014 586800 559898.577439474 -23856.2316028178 1.0453641228 484046.656472353 102753 102753.343527647 10558249606.1105 17.5107947389
Aug-2014 538800 565229.729257106 28127.1073486833 0.904382903 545599.94897593 -6800 6799.9489759305 46239306.0752577 1.2620543756
Sep-2014 517500 578646.595024465 1927.8601203521 0.9188211796 596842.924680696 -79343 79342.9246806963 6295299696.88665 15.3319661219
Oct-2014 588100 576480.649178819 -5363.2937342634 1.027804944 613417.97971401 -25318 25317.9797140104 641000096.799041 4.3050467121
Nov-2014 610400 569764.791466265 -7772.2384047824 1.0739908555 789599.052997361 -179199 179199.052997361 32112300595.1511 29.3576430205
Dec-2014 812200 569735.802024725 6018.6495841721 1.4055651357 578644.62232202 233555 233555.37767798 54548114442.3039 28.7558948138
Jan-2015 549900 561986.965906818 -18501.529749878 1.0042900184 582033.432691258 -32133 32133.4326912583 1032557496.52363 5.8435047629
Feb-2015 723700 607162.054864145 94907.8569655821 1.0742564536 722930.914301818 769 769.0856981816 591492.811147551 0.1062713415
Mar-2015 676300 680271.234670126 56083.9580515054 1.0287355371 689607.356575477 -13307 13307.3565754767 177085739.026883 1.9676706455
Apr-2015 552400 665831.424496463 -69520.3448411436 0.9335743749 450851.171396928 101549 101548.828603072 10312164590.6561 18.3832057573
May-2015 486700 619134.844796123 -28870.7428411047 0.7568932055 488399.294570896 -1699 1699.2945708965 2887602.03867826 0.3491462032
Jun-2015 489000 590613.56845048 -28248.3357200513 0.8274395456 587876.43821288 -98876 98876.4382128803 9776550033.66553 20.2201305139
Jul-2015 627500 580610.850192649 4247.4897280595 1.0463378322 528935.883318919 98564 98564.1166810809 9714885097.12173 15.7074289532
Aug-2015 574100 608897.197324495 47061.1964049083 0.9054412073 602708.465070591 -28608 28608.4650705908 818444273.695216 4.9831849975
Sep-2015 571900 639818.089806673 18314.9783041227 0.9181341514 676432.421239471 -104532 104532.421239471 10927027090.1862 18.2780942891
Oct-2015 625200 634138.837820054 -24419.24655312 1.0266522301 654833.265440518 -29633 29633.2654405183 878130420.668214 4.7398057326
Nov-2015 669000 616069.124742941 -13110.5949308605 1.0743189518 847497.48777514 -178497 178497.48777514 31861353142.0362 26.6812388304
Dec-2015 898700 620493.81921581 18120.1214220175 1.4067425107 641353.606191311 257346 257346.393808689 66227166406.337 28.6354060096
Jan-2016 620500 628618.66751626 318.3314120487 1.0038166983 675639.630015456 -55140 55139.6300154562 3040378798.2414 8.8863223232
Feb-2016 796800 683227.676716546 97011.1614858596 1.0767866612 802659.420274669 -5859 5859.4202746687 34332805.9551989 0.7353690104
Mar-2016 754600 757751.014424267 56959.8780631204 1.0278306112 760593.21217094 -5993 5993.2121709395 35918592.1258979 0.7942237173
Apr-2016 610800 737475.589332262 -80597.8085954893 0.9306763274 497186.329053425 113614 113613.670946575 12908066225.9567 18.60079747
May-2016 542000 685378.023442768 -29838.2815956197 0.7578261189 542419.506136494 -420 419.5061364945 175985.398556505 0.0773996562
Jun-2016 555800 663323.843775762 -15974.633622823 0.8277273567 677345.969259595 -121546 121545.969259595 14773422643.2544 21.8686522597
Jul-2016 716000 665131.820140253 15696.5658504824 1.0471670108 616450.075795954 99550 99549.9242040456 9910187409.03122 13.9036206989
Aug-2016 632600 689414.227688447 30988.1290826762 0.9057754418 661426.00647612 -28826 28826.0064761203 830938649.361331 4.5567509447
Sep-2016 647200 712943.890943072 17704.4458003244 0.9178494506 750121.744338327 -102922 102921.744338327 10592885457.6439 15.9026180992
Oct-2016 694300 704475.385711006 -28910.1261631405 1.0255216571 725772.561508002 -31473 31472.5615080025 990522127.874998 4.5329917194
Nov-2016 720500 673202.818054631 -33117.6837618066 1.0742072046 900434.96890137 -179935 179934.96890137 32376593033.5368 24.9736251078
Dec-2016 971800 664505.012399474 10374.6287379463 1.4082748263 677455.453142295 294345 294344.546857705 86638712264.8678 30.2885930086
Jan-2017 725800 698062.432257519 51663.6634992342 1.0048048287 807295.059471225 -81495 81495.0594712247 6641444718.21845 11.228308001
Feb-2017 807295.059471225 1
Mar-2017 823692.926059066 2 MAE RME MAPE
Apr-2017 793916.626559435 3 69622.2368819597 8840301322.09405 12.8333437176
May-2017 685618.238195499 4 RMSE
Jun-2017 791622.510027601 5 4420150661.04702
Jul-2017 1055590.85501477 6
Aug-2017 959857.551418996 7
Sep-2017 1020071.94118071 8
Oct-2017 1192717.99456801 9
Nov-2017 1304838.48942767 10
Dec-2017 1783386.7546828 11
Jan-2018 1324359.28529133 12
Feb-2018 1474863.98417326 13
Mar-2018 1460910.86402908 14
Apr-2018 1370902.40982075 15
May-2018 1155443.12138035 16
Jun-2018 1304783.64155834 17
Jul-2018 1704796.66391798 18
Aug-2018 1521405.68300287 19
Sep-2018 1589105.52307383 20
Oct-2018 1828504.46423654 21
Nov-2018 1970808.24397371 22
Dec-2018 2656466.39556979 23
Jan-2019 1947302.06791805 24
Feb-2019 2142432.90887529 25
Mar-2019 2098128.80199908 26
Apr-2019 1947888.19308206 27
May-2019 1625268.00456521 28
Jun-2019 1817944.77308908 29
Jul-2019 2354002.47282119 30