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Sheet2
| Created by Excel OM/QM | |||||||||||||
| 74 | Data row | ||||||||||||
| Problem title | |||||||||||||
| 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Substantial Acceptance | 10 | 50000 | |||||||||||
| 400000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.8 | 295000 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
| Market with Competitor | 8 | Moderate Acceptance | 11 | -50000 | |||||||||
| 0 | 300000 | ||||||||||||
| 0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Low Acceptance | 12 | -100000 | |||||||||||
| 0.9 | 354000 | 250000 | |||||||||||
| R&D Success | 6 | ||||||||||||
| -350000 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||
| Substantial Acceptance | 17 | 450000 | |||||||||||
| 800000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.2 | 590000 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
| -6400 | Market without Competitor | 9 | Moderate Acceptance | 18 | 250000 | ||||||||
| orderly development of the pina colada | 2 | 0 | 600000 | ||||||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||||
| 0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Low Acceptance | 19 | 150000 | |||||||||||
| 500000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| R&D Failure | 7 | -100000 | |||||||||||
| -100000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| Substantial Acceptance | 20 | 180000 | |||||||||||
| 400000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.6 | 295000 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
| Market with Competitor | 15 | Moderate Acceptance | 21 | 80000 | |||||||||
| 0 | 300000 | ||||||||||||
| 0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Low Acceptance | 22 | 30000 | |||||||||||
| 0.9 | 413000 | 250000 | |||||||||||
| 157700 | R&D Success | 13 | |||||||||||
| 1 | -140000 | 0.1 | |||||||||||
| 3 | Substantial Acceptance | 23 | 580000 | ||||||||||
| 800000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.4 | 590000 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
| 237700 | Market without Competitor | 16 | Moderate Acceptance | 24 | 380000 | ||||||||
| modest development effort followed by the crash program | 3 | 0 | 600000 | ||||||||||
| -80000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.3 | |||||||||||||
| Low Acceptance | 25 | 280000 | |||||||||||
| 500000 | |||||||||||||
| 0.1 | |||||||||||||
| R&D Failure | 14 | -160000 | |||||||||||
| -80000 | |||||||||||||
| a modest development effort for the first six months to see if a competitive product comes on the market | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||||
| Do nothing | 5 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||||
| Problem Data | |||||||||||||
| 25 | nodes | max | |||||||||||
| Node | Parnt | Name | Chldrn | Decision | Ch # | Prob | Profit | ||||||
| 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 2 | 1 | orderly development of the pina colada | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 3 | 1 | modest development effort followed by the crash program | 2 | 2 | 0 | -80000 | |||||||
| 4 | 1 | a modest development effort for the first six months to see if a competitive product comes on the market | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 5 | 1 | Do nothing | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 6 | 2 | R&D Success | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | -350000 | |||||||
| 7 | 2 | R&D Failure | 0 | 2 | =1-F15 | -100000 | |||||||
| 8 | 6 | Market with Competitor | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | 0 | |||||||
| 9 | 6 | Market without Competitor | 3 | 2 | =1-I9 | 0 | |||||||
| 10 | 8 | Substantial Acceptance | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 400000 | |||||||
| 11 | 8 | Moderate Acceptance | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 300000 | |||||||
| 12 | 8 | Low Acceptance | 0 | 3 | =1-(L5+L9) | 250000 | |||||||
| 13 | 3 | R&D Success | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | -140000 | |||||||
| 14 | 3 | R&D Failure | 0 | 2 | =1-F43 | -80000 | |||||||
| 15 | 13 | Market with Competitor | 3 | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | |||||||
| 16 | 13 | Market without Competitor | 3 | 2 | =1-I37 | 0 | |||||||
| 17 | 9 | Substantial Acceptance | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 800000 | |||||||
| 18 | 9 | Moderate Acceptance | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 600000 | |||||||
| 19 | 9 | Low Acceptance | 0 | 3 | =1-(L17+L21) | 500000 | |||||||
| 20 | 15 | Substantial Acceptance | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 400000 | |||||||
| 21 | 15 | Moderate Acceptance | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 300000 | |||||||
| 22 | 15 | Low Acceptance | 0 | 3 | =1-(L33+L37) | 250000 | |||||||
| 23 | 16 | Substantial Acceptance | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 800000 | |||||||
| 24 | 16 | Moderate Acceptance | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 600000 | |||||||
| 25 | 16 | Low Acceptance | 0 | 3 | =1-(L45+L49) | 500000 |
Use the Decision Tree Creation Window to create the tree. Click on a node to edit the tree. Values are on top of nodes. For decision nodes, decision is displayed below the node. Values to the right of final nodes are the cumulative profits along the path