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profileiitriy00s
partial_solution_drink_at_home.xls

Sheet2

Created by Excel OM/QM
74 Data row
Problem title
0.1
Substantial Acceptance 10 50000
400000
0.8 295000 0.6
Market with Competitor 8 Moderate Acceptance 11 -50000
0 300000
0.3
Low Acceptance 12 -100000
0.9 354000 250000
R&D Success 6
-350000 0.1
Substantial Acceptance 17 450000
800000
0.2 590000 0.6
-6400 Market without Competitor 9 Moderate Acceptance 18 250000
orderly development of the pina colada 2 0 600000
0
0.3
Low Acceptance 19 150000
500000
0.1
R&D Failure 7 -100000
-100000
0.1
Substantial Acceptance 20 180000
400000
0.6 295000 0.6
Market with Competitor 15 Moderate Acceptance 21 80000
0 300000
0.3
Low Acceptance 22 30000
0.9 413000 250000
157700 R&D Success 13
1 -140000 0.1
3 Substantial Acceptance 23 580000
800000
0.4 590000 0.6
237700 Market without Competitor 16 Moderate Acceptance 24 380000
modest development effort followed by the crash program 3 0 600000
-80000
0.3
Low Acceptance 25 280000
500000
0.1
R&D Failure 14 -160000
-80000
a modest development effort for the first six months to see if a competitive product comes on the market 4 0
0
Do nothing 5 0
0
Problem Data
25 nodes max
Node Parnt Name Chldrn Decision Ch # Prob Profit
1 0 4 0
2 1 orderly development of the pina colada 2 1 0 0
3 1 modest development effort followed by the crash program 2 2 0 -80000
4 1 a modest development effort for the first six months to see if a competitive product comes on the market 0 3 0 0
5 1 Do nothing 0 4 0 0
6 2 R&D Success 2 1 0.9 -350000
7 2 R&D Failure 0 2 =1-F15 -100000
8 6 Market with Competitor 3 1 0.8 0
9 6 Market without Competitor 3 2 =1-I9 0
10 8 Substantial Acceptance 0 1 0.1 400000
11 8 Moderate Acceptance 0 2 0.6 300000
12 8 Low Acceptance 0 3 =1-(L5+L9) 250000
13 3 R&D Success 2 1 0.9 -140000
14 3 R&D Failure 0 2 =1-F43 -80000
15 13 Market with Competitor 3 1 0.6 0
16 13 Market without Competitor 3 2 =1-I37 0
17 9 Substantial Acceptance 0 1 0.1 800000
18 9 Moderate Acceptance 0 2 0.6 600000
19 9 Low Acceptance 0 3 =1-(L17+L21) 500000
20 15 Substantial Acceptance 0 1 0.1 400000
21 15 Moderate Acceptance 0 2 0.6 300000
22 15 Low Acceptance 0 3 =1-(L33+L37) 250000
23 16 Substantial Acceptance 0 1 0.1 800000
24 16 Moderate Acceptance 0 2 0.6 600000
25 16 Low Acceptance 0 3 =1-(L45+L49) 500000
Use the Decision Tree Creation Window to create the tree. Click on a node to edit the tree. Values are on top of nodes. For decision nodes, decision is displayed below the node. Values to the right of final nodes are the cumulative profits along the path

Sheet1