: How can you make a difference?
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ua1171_sp17_part1.pdf
Contemporary Issues in Designing and Managing Sustainable Cities
Urban Affairs 1171:001
Lesson 1 • Sustainability: An Introduction • Ecology and Limits to Growth • The New Normals
Problems of Sustainability
How do we achieve a sustainable future? small scale, local, autonomous boycott consumer is global dictator, choices you make – organic foods
How do we achieve a sustainable future? small scale, local, autonomous boycott consumer is global dictator, choices you make – organic foods
Why be sustainable?
1. Climate Change
2. Loss of bio-diversity, extinction of species
3. We live on a planet of finite resources
4. Direct health impacts to humans (air, water pollution, toxic chemicals)
5. Food (GMOs, toxic farming methods, processing, and the env effects of industrial ag.)
6. Economically makes sense
Economy
Environment Equity
Sustainability -Triple Bottom Line
Sustainability ...?
“Meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.
Brundtland Commission, 1987
Sustainability ...?
1987 is more than generation ago, and things have only become much worse
Who is the present generation?
Everyone on the planet born in a certain time frame?
Does everyone of a particular this generation receive an equal share or consume an equal share?
consider: Africa burns about 2% of the fossil fuel on the planet China burns the most coal with far less regulation, but supplies us with over 50% of goods to the US
Is being "sustainable" enough?
Environment Equity
Why be sustainable? 1. Climate Change – Global warming
- Impact on Human settlement – cities, coastal areas, etc.
- Impact on biodiversity (6th mass extinction)
- Impact on food supply, cost of food
- Impact on economy
- Impact on human health
Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC)
Climate Change caused by human activities a.k.a. "Global Warming"
Our atmosphere creates conditions conducive to life
Climate Change Science in History "Greenhouse Effect"
1827Joseph Fourier – Theory 1896 Svante Arrhenius = proved "theory" 1938 Guy Stewart Callender temperature and CO2 level in the atmosphere had been rising over the past half-century 1960 Charles David Keeling demonstrated that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere was rising 1975 Manabe and Wetherald Three-dimensional global climate model that gave a Doubling CO2 in the atmosphere gave a roughly 2 °C rise in global temperature 1979 Confirmed by US Research Council 1980 James Hanson presents to UN 1982 EXXON report 1982 Oeschager and Dansgaard Greenland Ice Cores: CO2 fluctuations and earth temp change, also demonstrated increased CO2 in last 100 years tied to temp increase 1988 Formation of IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Extreme weather events
Planet is warming faster in far Northern hemisphere
Melting permafrost releases methane, a very harmful greenhouse gas
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/18/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-record-low
Since 1992, the combined ice melt from Greenland and Antarctica has accounted for 20% of the total sea level rise.
Greenland looses approx. 200 billion tons per year.
http://www.nature.com/news/grim-picture-of-polar-ice-sheet-loss-1.11921
Receding Glaciers
Ocean acidification - Dying coral reefs
scientific consensus ???
NAS - National Academy of Science "Strong Evidence on Climate Change Underscores Need For Actions to Reduce Emissions and Begin Adapting to Impacts"
AAAS - The American Association for the Advancement of Science "AAAS and 17 other scientific organizations sent a letter to members of the U.S. Senate, asserting that “rigorous scientific research” and “multiple independent lines of evidence” clearly support the reality of global climate change tied to human activities ….global climate change is real, it is caused largely by human activities, and the need to take action is urgent.”
InterAcademy Council (represents over 100 National Councils of Science around the globe) "Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases."
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Established by United Nations Environment Programme World Meteorological Organization
2007: 90% probability – "very likely" that humans are causing climate change
2013: 95% probability – "extremely likely" that humans are causing climate change
70% of US Citizens believe climate change is due to human activities - burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, etc. (lowest among developed countries)
57% believe climate change is due to human activity + natural causes (sun spots, volcanoes, normal cycles)
48% believe there is consensus among the scientific community
http://closup.umich.edu/files/ieep-nsee-2015-fall-climate-belief.pdf
Why be sustainable?
1. Climate Change
2. Loss of bio-diversity, extinction of species
3. We are running our of stuff
4. Direct health impacts to humans (air, water pollution, toxic chemicals)
5. Food (GMOs, toxic farming methods, processing, and the env effects of industrial ag.)
6. Economically makes sense
The last major extinction occurred 65 million years ago when it was presumed an asteroid struck the earth
Extinction Rates before humans
0.0001% or one in every 1 million
today
about 0.1% (or one in every 1000) 1000 times higher
considering exponential rates:
in 200 years loose 1 million species ( if total was 5 million)
in 71 years loose 1 million species (if total was 14 million)
these estimates are considered to be low due to the projected increase in human population growth and climate change
Why is extinction a problem for humans?
Bees and bats are responsible for the majority of fruit and vegetable pollination, insect control
Causes of extinction:
1) Loss of habitat 2) Changing climate / seasonal weather patterns 3) Chemicals – pesticides, insecticides 4) Introduction of invasive species
Why be sustainable?
1. Climate Change
2. Loss of bio-diversity, extinction of species
3. We are running our of stuff
4. Direct health impacts to humans (air, water pollution, toxic chemicals)
5. Food (GMOs, toxic farming methods, processing, and the env effects of industrial ag.)
6. Economically makes sense
Fossil fuels
The economy of fossil fuels
Western society is built upon overconsumption, which is driven by the burning of fossil fuels
We are dependent on long-distance supply chains, our food supplies through industrial agriculture, consumer goods are made in 3rd world economies where there is little or no environmental regulation
Overconsumption has been the driving force behind environmental degradation and climate change
We have few alternatives to replace fossil fuels on the scale that is needed
James Hansen Former Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Keystone XL Pipeline
Before After
Ecology
and
Limits to Growth
Ecology (from Greek oikos: "house" + logos: "study of"
The study of interactions between organisms and their environment (in other words, everything).
This includes energy resources such as food, water, etc., and as well, habitat.
Ecology (from Greek oikos: "house" + logos: "study of"
The study of interactions between organisms and their environment.
This includes energy resources such as food, water, etc., as well, habitat.
What is human ecology?
How does that differ from other species?
Food = Waste: • The waste of one organism becomes food for
something else. • There is no such thing as waste in nature
Everything in nature has a purpose.
"We are not alone..."
The human body
"... is more like a complex ecosystem—a social network— containing trillions of bacteria and other microorganisms that inhabit our skin, genital areas, mouth and especially intestines."
Microbiome The body has about 10 trillion human cells.
We have ten times more bacteria cells in our bodies as our own cells (= 2 - 3 lbs)
At least 500 species of micro flora exist in our intestines alone, which vary from person to person
How many people can the Earth Support? ... and at what lifestyle?
Carrying capacity The maximum number of individuals an environment can sustain given available resources – food, habitat, water, etc.
Overshoot When a population has increased beyond it’s carrying capacity.
Increasing carrying capacity If a species can adapt or “evolve” through developing a new resource (find new food, higher quality food source), then the species can develop a higher carrying capacity.
Humans adapt primarily through technological developments
http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html
As birth rates increase, death rates are decreasing
• Arable Land: Food production (soil) • Water • Waste (pollution, including CO2) • Material Resources: Energy, Raw materials
Ecological Foot Print: The sum of all the biologically productive land required to support human activities, and the area needed to absorb the wastes from these activities.
Mathis Wackernagel Global Footprint Network
Ecological Foot Print:
Can be applied to any scale of human activities, whether person, demographic or entire country
How much space each of us needs to sustain our particular way of life.
Factors: • where you live • what you eat • how you live
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/resources/footprint-calculator/
Ecological Foot Print: the amount of biologically productive land and water needed to supply each person with resources, and absorb the wastes from such resource use. (Miller, p.8)
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/resources/footprint-calculator/
http://www.facingthefuture.org/IssuesSolutions/ConsumptionWaste/ EcologicalFootprintTour/tabid/509/Default.aspx#.VDwA5NTF8xg
At the current rate of consumption, we need at least another half of planet to compensate for the amount or resources currently being used
Overshoot When a population has increased beyond it’s carrying capacity.
Three causes of overshoot 1) growth, acceleration, rapid change
2) there is some form of limit or barrier, beyond which the moving system may not safely go
3) there is a delay or mistake in the perceptions and the responses that strive to keep the system within its limits.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6080074.stm
We passed the sustainability era even before the definition was created...
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/humanity-has-overshot-the-earths-capacity-36727
We have been operating at a deficit for even longer
The book was translated into 35 languages, and it was selected as one of the most influential environmental books of the 20th century.
"The intent of the project is to examine the complex of problems troubling men of all nations: poverty in the midst of plenty; degradation of the environment; loss of faith in institutions; uncontrolled urban spread; insecurity of employment; alienation of youth; rejection of traditional values; and inflation and other monetary and economic disruptions."
Conceptual diagram for Limits to Growth computer model
Conclusions (Limits to Growth, 1972)
1) Growth trends in population, industrialization, food production, pollution, resource depletion, limits to growth on the planet will be reached within 100 years (2072).
2) It is possible to alter these growth trends towards a sustainable future so that every individual has the equal opportunity to reach their potential
3) The sooner we begin to adapt, the sooner we have a chance for success.
http://dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2011/10/limits-to-growth.html
http://www.ecoglobe.ch/scenarios/e/adx0.htm
"It is far too late to achieve sustainable development, as that term is commonly understood. A precipitous decline in resource and energy use is coming in the next decades, and the most important goal now is to adopt policies that will reduce its negative impacts on the values that are most important to us."
Dennis Meadows, 2012
The New Normals
How is continued economic growth possible if the substance that drives the economy is soon becoming exhausted?
"Instead of focusing on achieving climate policy within the economic growth paradigm, the US environmental community must embrace strategies that are appropriate to these “new normals.”
http://www.postcarbon.org/report/1882095-climate-after-growth
Our “New Normals”
The New Energy Normal
The New Climate Normal
The New Economic Normal
A circular argument: Supplies of accessible fossil fuels and cost effective production will will become scarce. Cost will increase effecting the economy, the more we burn, the more our climate be effected All three are interconnected
The New Energy Normal
"You know, the world’s not running out of oil. There’s all kinds of oil left in all kinds of places. We’re never going to run out of oil. But what the world is going to run out of, indeed, what the world has already run out of, is the oil you can afford to burn."
- Jeff Rubin, energy expert & former chief economist, CIBC World Markets
World Peak Oil http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/70890-12-economic-bubbles-may-burst.html
Energy Profit ratio "net energy" (investment: return)
Light sweet crude 1930 1 : 50 - 100
Tar Sands 2013 1 : 2.5 – 4
2003 2013
Price of a barrel of oil, in July $30 $105
Average extent of arctic sea ice in September (millions of km2) 6.0 3.6
Federal government debt per household $61,110 $145,980
Keystone XL Pipeline Why is this a very bad idea?
1) Destroys / pollutes thousands of square miles of old growth forest
2) Very costly, part subsidized US Taxpayers
3) Creates few permanent jobs
4) Spills very likely, endangers largest aquifer in the world
5) Oil is too expensive to use in US, for export
The New Climate Normal
Weather instability will only increase and effect agriculture and the economy as a whole. Food prices increase, as well shortages.
"My sick joke is that Eastern Australia had average rainfall for the last seven years. The first six were the driest six years in the record books, and the seventh was feet deep in unprecedented floods. Such “average” rainfall makes farming difficult."
- Jeremy Grantham CEO
The New Economic Normal
Debt is creating a false sense of growth Fossil fuel based economy is ending
"We are stealing the future, selling it in the present, and calling it GDP. We can just as easily have an economy that is based on healing the future instead of stealing it."
- Paul Hawken
