| | | | | | Crystal Ball Report - Full |
| | | | | | Simulation started on 4/9/2017 at 5:36 PM |
| | | | | | Simulation stopped on 4/9/2017 at 5:37 PM |
| | Run preferences: |
| | | Number of trials run | | 100,000 |
| | | Extreme speed |
| | | Monte Carlo |
| | | Random seed |
| | | Precision control on |
| | | Confidence level | | 95.00% |
| | Run statistics: |
| | | Total running time (sec) | | 26.33 |
| | | Trials/second (average) | | 3,798 |
| | | Random numbers per sec | | 486,097 |
| | Crystal Ball data: |
| | | Assumptions | | 128 |
| | | Correlations | | 36 |
| | | Correlation matrices | | 12 |
| | | Decision variables | | 0 |
| | | Forecasts | | 4 |
| | | | | | Forecasts |
| Worksheet: [wael Alturki (3) (1).xlsx]Sheet1 |
| Forecast: NPV Parent IRP | | | | | | | | | Cell: B101 |
| | Summary: |
| | | Certainty level is 51.669% |
| | | Certainty range is from $0 to ∞ |
| | | Entire range is from -$4,327,466 to $3,687,053 |
| | | Base case is $257,201 |
| | | After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $3,421 |
| | Statistics: | | | Forecast values |
| | | Trials | | 100,000 |
| | | Base Case | | $257,201 |
| | | Mean | | -$82,113 |
| | | Median | | $37,123 |
| | | Mode | | --- |
| | | Standard Deviation | | $1,081,705 |
| | | Variance | | $1,170,086,646,713 |
| | | Skewness | | -0.6855 |
| | | Kurtosis | | 3.63 |
| | | Coeff. of Variation | | -13.17 |
| | | Minimum | | -$4,327,466 |
| | | Maximum | | $3,687,053 |
| | | Range Width | | $8,014,519 |
| | | Mean Std. Error | | $3,421 |
| Forecast: NPV Parent IRP (cont'd) | | | | | | | | | Cell: B101 |
| | Percentiles: | | | Forecast values |
| | | 0% | | -$4,327,466 |
| | | 10% | | -$1,625,766 |
| | | 20% | | -$776,145 |
| | | 30% | | -$441,472 |
| | | 40% | | -$188,223 |
| | | 50% | | $37,117 |
| | | 60% | | $258,027 |
| | | 70% | | $494,427 |
| | | 80% | | $768,346 |
| | | 90% | | $1,152,751 |
| | | 100% | | $3,687,053 |
| Forecast: NPV Parent Randome Walk | | | | | | | | | Cell: B100 |
| | Summary: |
| | | Certainty level is 90.064% |
| | | Certainty range is from $0 to ∞ |
| | | Entire range is from -$3,289,885 to $9,218,044 |
| | | Base case is $4,255,363 |
| | | After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $6,120 |
| | Statistics: | | | Forecast values |
| | | Trials | | 100,000 |
| | | Base Case | | $4,255,363 |
| | | Mean | | $3,698,991 |
| | | Median | | $4,026,171 |
| | | Mode | | --- |
| | | Standard Deviation | | $1,935,335 |
| | | Variance | | $3,745,520,478,412 |
| | | Skewness | | -1.28 |
| | | Kurtosis | | 4.61 |
| | | Coeff. of Variation | | 0.5232 |
| | | Minimum | | -$3,289,885 |
| | | Maximum | | $9,218,044 |
| | | Range Width | | $12,507,928 |
| | | Mean Std. Error | | $6,120 |
| Forecast: NPV Parent Randome Walk (cont'd) | | | | | | | | | Cell: B100 |
| | Percentiles: | | | Forecast values |
| | | 0% | | -$3,289,885 |
| | | 10% | | $148,430 |
| | | 20% | | $2,886,985 |
| | | 30% | | $3,349,436 |
| | | 40% | | $3,702,725 |
| | | 50% | | $4,026,166 |
| | | 60% | | $4,346,257 |
| | | 70% | | $4,682,848 |
| | | 80% | | $5,082,942 |
| | | 90% | | $5,633,420 |
| | | 100% | | $9,218,044 |
| Forecast: NPV Parent RPPP | | | | | | | | | Cell: B102 |
| | Summary: |
| | | Certainty level is 80.295% |
| | | Certainty range is from $0 to ∞ |
| | | Entire range is from -$4,050,161 to $4,946,951 |
| | | Base case is $1,076,486 |
| | | After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $3,863 |
| | Statistics: | | | Forecast values |
| | | Trials | | 100,000 |
| | | Base Case | | $1,076,486 |
| | | Mean | | $686,899 |
| | | Median | | $853,670 |
| | | Mode | | --- |
| | | Standard Deviation | | $1,221,635 |
| | | Variance | | $1,492,391,798,245 |
| | | Skewness | | -0.9360 |
| | | Kurtosis | | 4.01 |
| | | Coeff. of Variation | | 1.78 |
| | | Minimum | | -$4,050,161 |
| | | Maximum | | $4,946,951 |
| | | Range Width | | $8,997,113 |
| | | Mean Std. Error | | $3,863 |
| Forecast: NPV Parent RPPP (cont'd) | | | | | | | | | Cell: B102 |
| | Percentiles: | | | Forecast values |
| | | 0% | | -$4,050,161 |
| | | 10% | | -$1,164,712 |
| | | 20% | | $13,115 |
| | | 30% | | $357,755 |
| | | 40% | | $618,524 |
| | | 50% | | $853,669 |
| | | 60% | | $1,087,142 |
| | | 70% | | $1,330,606 |
| | | 80% | | $1,619,131 |
| | | 90% | | $2,009,041 |
| | | 100% | | $4,946,951 |
| Forecast: NPV Project Prespective | | | | | | | | | Cell: B99 |
| | Summary: |
| | | Certainty level is 78.453% |
| | | Certainty range is from $0.00 to ∞ |
| | | Entire range is from $(4,039,514.38) to $4,887,169.80 |
| | | Base case is $1,005,935.97 |
| | | After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $3,836.99 |
| | Statistics: | | | Forecast values |
| | | Trials | | 100,000 |
| | | Base Case | | $1,005,935.97 |
| | | Mean | | $621,484.71 |
| | | Median | | $782,514.32 |
| | | Mode | | --- |
| | | Standard Deviation | | $1,213,362.68 |
| | | Variance | | $1,472,248,987,753.77 |
| | | Skewness | | -0.8878 |
| | | Kurtosis | | 3.93 |
| | | Coeff. of Variation | | 1.95 |
| | | Minimum | | $(4,039,514.38) |
| | | Maximum | | $4,887,169.80 |
| | | Range Width | | $8,926,684.18 |
| | | Mean Std. Error | | $3,836.99 |
| Forecast: NPV Project Prespective (cont'd) | | | | | | | | | Cell: B99 |
| | Percentiles: | | | Forecast values |
| | | 0% | | $(4,039,514.38) |
| | | 10% | | $(1,208,858.52) |
| | | 20% | | $(64,454.84) |
| | | 30% | | $281,069.95 |
| | | 40% | | $543,414.40 |
| | | 50% | | $782,500.02 |
| | | 60% | | $1,014,834.41 |
| | | 70% | | $1,260,464.34 |
| | | 80% | | $1,549,025.48 |
| | | 90% | | $1,947,015.03 |
| | | 100% | | $4,887,169.80 |
| End of Forecasts |
| | | | | | Assumptions |
| Worksheet: [wael Alturki (3) (1).xlsx]Sheet1 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N26 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 9.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N27 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -4.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 12.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N28 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -3.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 15.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: 2018 Sales 10' classic | | | | | | | | | Cell: C13 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | 100.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 130.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N30 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -6.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 18.00 |
| Assumption: Boat mold price | | | | | | | | | Cell: B9 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | MXN 20,000,000 |
| | | Maximum | | MXN 30,000,000 |
| Assumption: C14 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C14 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | 90.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 140.00 |
| Assumption: C15 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C15 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | 100.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 150.00 |
| Assumption: C16 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C16 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | 110.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 150.00 |
| Assumption: C17 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C17 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | 170.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 230.00 |
| Assumption: D14 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D14 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 35% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 6% |
| Assumption: D15 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D15 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 38% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 7% |
| Assumption: D17 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D17 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 37% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 3% |
| Assumption: Equipment price | | | | | | | | | Cell: B10 |
| | Custom distribution with parameters: |
| | | Value | Probability |
| | | MXN 15,000,000 | 0.30 |
| | | MXN 20,000,000 | 0.30 |
| | | MXN 25,000,000 | 0.10 |
| Assumption: Equipment price (cont'd) | | | | | | | | | Cell: B10 |
| Assumption: H2919' Classic growth in Sales 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H29 |
| | Discrete Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -5.00 |
| | | Maximum | | 11.00 |
| Assumption: Manufacturing Faculity price | | | | | | | | | Cell: B8 |
| | Triangular distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | MXN 115,000,000 |
| | | Likeliest | | MXN 130,000,000 |
| | | Maximum | | MXN 150,000,000 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2018 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.350% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.950% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2018 (C23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2018 (C24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.650% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.100% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2019 (D23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2019 (D24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2020 (E23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2020 (E24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2021 (F24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2021 (F23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2022 (G24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2022 (G23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2023 (H23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2023 (H24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2024 (I24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2024 (I23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2025 (J24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2025 (J23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2026 (K24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2026 (K23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2027 (L24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2027 (L23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2028 (M23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2028 (M24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: Mexican Expected inflation 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N25 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 5.950% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.300% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2029 (N23) | | | | | 0.75 |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2029 (N24) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2018 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 7.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.750% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2018 (C25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 7.850% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 1.950% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2019 (D25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2020 (E25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2021 (F25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2022 (G25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2023 (H25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2024 (I25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2025 (J25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2026 (K25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2027 (L25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2028 (M25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N23 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 8.000% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 2.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2029 (N25) | | | | | 0.75 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2018 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N21 |
| | Uniform distribution with parameters: |
| | | Minimum | | -0.02 |
| | | Maximum | | 0.02 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2018 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 0.150% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.030% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2018 (C25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2018 (C22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 0.650% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2019 (D22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2019 (D25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2020 (E25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2020 (E22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2021 (F25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2021 (F22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2022 (G25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2022 (G22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2023 (H22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2023 (H25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2024 (I25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2024 (I22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2025 (J22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2026 (K22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2025 (J25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2026 (K25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2027 (L25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2027 (L22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2028 (M22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2028 (M25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N24 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Nominal Intersest Rate 2029 (N22) | | | | | 0.85 |
| | | Mexican Expected inflation 2029 (N25) | | | | | 0.42 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2018 | | | | | | | | | Cell: C22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 0.850% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2018 (C24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2019 | | | | | | | | | Cell: D22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.250% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.350% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2019 (D24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2020 | | | | | | | | | Cell: E22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.450% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2020 (E24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2021 | | | | | | | | | Cell: F22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2021 (F24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2022 | | | | | | | | | Cell: G22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2022 (G24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2023 | | | | | | | | | Cell: H22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2023 (H24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2024 | | | | | | | | | Cell: I22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2024 (I24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2025 | | | | | | | | | Cell: J22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2025 (J24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2026 | | | | | | | | | Cell: K22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2025 (J24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2027 | | | | | | | | | Cell: L22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2027 (L24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2028 | | | | | | | | | Cell: M22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2028 (M24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2029 | | | | | | | | | Cell: N22 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 1.500% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 0.150% |
| | Correlated with: | | | | | | Coefficient |
| | | US Expected Infliation 2029 (N24) | | | | | 0.85 |
| Assumption: Variable Costs 10' classic | | | | | | | | | Cell: D13 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 40% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 5% |
| Assumption: variable Costs 19' classic | | | | | | | | | Cell: D16 |
| | Normal distribution with parameters: |
| | | Mean | | 42% |
| | | Std. Dev. | | 5% |
| End of Assumptions |
| | | | | | Sensitivity Charts |
| End of Sensitivity Charts |