DCF VALUATION ON A BANK

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table_1a.ddm_stock_valuation_model.xlsx

Data Input Sheet

STOCK VALUATION MODEL - Dividend Discount Model - DDM)
(Dividends & Repurchases)
ENTER DATA IN YELLOW-CODED CELLS
NAME OF COMPANY International Bancshares (IBOC) OUTPUT BELOW & IN SUBSEQUENT WORKSHEETS
BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THE DECIMAL POINTS
LAST YEAR 2016 Year
NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING (Mil.) 66,313,490.00 Millions of Shares WATCH DECIMAL POINT
MARKET PRICE OF STOCK / SHARE $38.70 Dollars Per Share
NET INCOME AFTER TAXES $133,932,000.00 Millions of Dollars
TOTAL SALES $549,616,000.00 Millions of Dollars
BOOK VALUE OF EQUITY $1,724,667,000.00 Millions of Dollars
RISK FREE RATE (10 Yr. T- Bond) 2.38% Annual Percentage Rate
DIVIDENDS PAID (TOTAL) $39,570,000.00 Millions of Dollars (Find on Statement of Cash Flows)
STOCK REPURCHASES (TOTAL) $7,790,000.00 Millions of Dollars (Find on Statement of Cash Flows)
REQUIRED INFORMATION FOR CALCULATION OF REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN
BETA OF STOCK 0.59
MARKET RISK PREMIUM 5.50% Expected Market Risk Premium % Should be Between 5% & 6%
REQUIRED INFORMATION FOR VARIABLE GROWTH RATE VALUATIONS Terminal
2017 2018 2019 2020 Terminal
EXPECTED GROWTH RATE (DIVIDENDS & STOCK REPURCHASES) 5.40% 7.50% 5.00% 5.00% 2.30% The Terminal Growth Rate Should
Not Exceed 2% to 3%
OUTPUTS AND VALUATIONS
COMPUTER-GENERATED CALCULATIONS
EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.02
LAST CASH DIVIDEND & STOCK REPURCHASE PAYMENT PER SHARE $0.71
EXPECTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (DIVIDENDS & STOCK REPURCHASES) 4.71% Geometric Mean of Annual Rates
REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN (k) 5.63% CAPM
REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN (k) 6.65% Dividend Discount Model
REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN (k) 6.14% Average of CAPM and Dividend Discount Model
SUSTAINABLE RATE OF GROWTH 5.02% (ROE * (1-Payout Ratio))
COMPUTER-GENERATED CALCULATIONS
STOCK VALUE - CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL $19.05
STOCK VALUE - VARIABLE GROWTH MODEL $21.59

Must be positive values in each cell

All Data Required

Required Data

Stock Expected Return

EXPECTED RETURN COMMON STOCK
INPUTS FORMULA
k = ( D1 / P0 ) + g
LAST DIVIDEND & STOCK REPURCHASE PER SHARE $0.71
PRICE OF STOCK $38.70
EXPECTED GROWTH RATE (DIVIDENDS & STOCK REPURCHASES) 4.71%
OUTPUT
ESTIMATED REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN (k) 6.65%

Stock Price - Constant Growth

PRICE OF COMMON STOCK - CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL
INPUTS FORMULA
P0 = D1 / ( k - g )
LAST CASH/STOCK REPURCHASE PAYMENT PER SHARE $0.71
REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN (ROR) 6.14%
EXPECTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2.30%
(Dividends + Stock Repurchases) k must > g
OUTPUT
PRICE OF STOCK $19.05

Stock Price - Variable Growth

PRICE OF STOCK - VARIABLE GROWTH MODEL
INPUTS
LAST YEAR (e.g., 1996) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
LAST CASH & STOCK REPURCHASE PAYMENT PER SHARE $0.71
EXPECTED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (DIVIDENDS + STOCK REPURCHASES) 5.40% 7.50% 5.00% 5.00% 2.30%
REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN 6.14%
(ROR or k)
FORMULA
P0 = Present Value of Dividends Plus Present Value of Future Stock Price
OUTPUT
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DIVIDENDS $0.75 $0.81 $0.85 $0.89 $0.91
FUTURE PRICE $23.79
NON-DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS $0.75 $0.81 $0.85 $24.68
PRESENT VALUE $21.59

Sheet8