| The following article has the details for the Excel Sheet. Please respect copyright laws. |
| Author: Dr. A. N. M. Waheeduzzaman |
| Article Title: Market Potential Estimation in International Markets |
| Journal of Global Marketing, Vol. 21 (4), 2008, 307-320. |
| | | | Table 2 |
| | | | Comparison of Different Methods |
| A. Basic Statistics for Thailand | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| GDP measured at PPP (million US $) | 597380.00 | 640120.00 | 685621.00 | 733182.94 | 775523.91 |
| Per capita income | 9553.82 | 10138.64 | 10758.77 | 11402.49 | 11956.98 |
| Population ('000) | 62527.89 | 63136.70 | 63726.69 | 64300.27 | 64859.53 |
| Family size | 3.57 | 3.55 | 3.53 | 3.51 | 3.49 |
| Total households ('000) | 17514.82 | 17784.99 | 18052.89 | 18319.17 | 18584.39 |
| Ownership of washing machine per 100 households | 43.10 | 46.20 | 48.40 | 50.80 | 52.70 |
| Life expectancy at birth (years) | 71.29 | 71.67 | 72 | 72.29 | 72.54 |
| Female labor at as percentage of total (%) | 45.88 | 45.89 | 45.90 | 45.93 | 45.96 |
| Percentage of urban population (%) | 32.85 | 33.25 | 33.58 | 33.97 | 34.36 |
| Per capita energy consumption (%), 3% growth assumed | 1525.98 | 1571.76 | 1618.91 | 1667.48 | 1717.50 |
| Households with electricity (%), 3% growth assumed | 82.10 | 84.56 | 87.10 | 89.71 | 92.40 |
| Households with resident telephones (%), 3% growth assumed | 42.00 | 43.26 | 44.56 | 45.89 | 47.27 |
| Households with water supply (%), 3% growth assumed | 49.76 | 51.25 | 52.79 | 54.37 | 56.01 |
| Ownership per 100 households using time series equation | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.80 | 40.79 | 40.78 |
| Ownership per 100 households using multiple regession equation | 34.23 | 36.21 | 38.15 | 40.09 | 41.77 |
| B. Basic Statistics for South Africa |
| GDP measured at PPP for South Africa (million US $) | 606407.00 | 643808.00 | 683004.00 | 759455.21 | 845276.05 |
| Population, South Africa ('000) | 49466.6 | 50250.01 | 50924.13 | 51509.41 | 52028.18 |
| Total households ('000) | 12767 | 12976.6 | 13165.9 | 13332.9 | 13485.6 |
| Ownership of washing machine per 100 households | 43.7 | 45.7 | 47.9 | 49.5 | 50.8 |
| C. Comparison of Market Potential Estimations for Thailand ('000) |
| Method of Analogy | 5995.12 | 6263.38 | 6567.98 | 6801.21 | 7000.71 |
| Proxy Indicators | 7356.22 | 7693.78 | 8043.97 | 8407.50 | 8785.10 |
| Chain Ratio Method | 7155.32 | 7708.17 | 8300.78 | 8936.19 | 9617.67 |
| Time Series Analysis | 7146.04 | 7256.10 | 7364.86 | 7472.57 | 7579.46 |
| Multiple Regression Modeling | 5996.17 | 6440.46 | 6887.21 | 7343.28 | 7762.87 |
| Average of all five methods | 6729.78 | 7072.38 | 7432.96 | 7792.15 | 8149.16 |
| Yearly growth of average market potential | ... | 342.60 | 360.58 | 359.19 | 357.01 |
| Market potential as per Euromonitor data | 7548.89 | 8216.66 | 8737.60 | 9306.14 | 9793.98 |
| Time Series Equation: Yi = 39.9 + 0.06 t – 0.001 t*t |
| Multiples Regression Equation: Yi = -124.27 + 0.002 (INCOME) + 0.0001 (ENERGY) + 1.78 (LIFEXP) + 0.32 (URBAN) + 0.04 (FEMALE) |
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20170328222830waheeduzzaman_market_potential_estimation.xls
