Case,economic, report

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PVB-TREND ONLY

FORECAST WITH TREND ONLY Q = 39197.83+2419.22*T
Actual Sales Figures
Year Quarter T Sales Predicted Sales With Trend Only
1999 QI-1999
QII-1999
QIII-1999
QIV-1999
2000 QI-2000
QII-2000
QIII-2000
QIV-2000
2001 QI-2001 1 27,512 41,617
QII-2001 2 45,798 44,036
QIII-2001 3 76,968 46,455
QIV-2001 4 43,858 48,875
2002 QI-2002 5 30,580 51,294
QII-2002 6 53,198 53,713
QIII-2002 7 88,704 56,132
QIV-2002 8 51,590 58,552
2003 QI-2003 9 35,372 60,971
QII-2003 10 57,840 63,390
QIII-2003 11 93,388 65,809
QIV-2003 12 58,906 68,228
2004 QI-2004 13 39,382 70,648
QII-2004 14 75,219 73,067
QIII-2004 15 122,868 75,486
QIV-2004 16 54,996 77,905
2005 QI-2005 17 48,159 80,325
QII-2005
QIII-2005
QIV-2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4466968716
R Square 0.1995380951
Adjusted R Square 0.1423622447
Standard Error 23878.5565116386
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1989891187.32427 1989891187.32427 3.4899016603 0.0828158076
Residual 14 7982596455.11323 570185461.079517
Total 15 9972487642.4375
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 39197.825 12522.0206754688 3.1303114742 0.0073746375 12340.7617494231 66054.8882505769 12340.7617494231 66054.8882505769
TREND 2419.2191176471 1294.9965490296 1.868127849 0.0828158076 -358.2722416111 5196.7104769053 -358.2722416111 5196.7104769053

QI-2001 QII-2001 QIII-2001 QIV-2001 QI-2002 QII-2002 QIII-2002 QIV-2002 QI-2003 QII-2003 QIII-2003 QIV-2003 QI-2004 QII-2004 QIII-2004 QIV-2004 27512 45798 76968 43858 30580 53198 88704 51590 35372 57840 93388 58906 39382 75219 122868 54996

PVB-TREND AND DUMMIES

FORECAST WITH TREND AND DUMMIES Q = 23973.96 + 2211.83*T + 16345.16*D1 + 51601.59*D2
Actual Sales Figures
Year Quarter T Dummy 1 Dummy 2 Sales Predicted Sales With Trend & Dummies
1999 QI-1999
QII-1999
QIII-1999
QIV-1999
2000 QI-2000
QII-2000
QIII-2000
QIV-2000
2001 QI-2001 1 0 0 27,512 26185.79
QII-2001 2 1 0 45,798 44742.78
QIII-2001 3 0 1 76,968 82211.04
QIV-2001 4 0 0 43,858 32821.28
2002 QI-2002 5 0 0 30,580 35033.11
QII-2002 6 1 0 53,198 53590.1
QIII-2002 7 0 1 88,704 91058.36
QIV-2002 8 0 0 51,590 41668.6
2003 QI-2003 9 0 0 35,372 43880.43
QII-2003 10 1 0 57,840 62437.42
QIII-2003 11 0 1 93,388 99905.68
QIV-2003 12 0 0 58,906 50515.92
2004 QI-2004 13 0 0 39,382 52727.75
QII-2004 14 1 0 75,219 71284.74
QIII-2004 15 0 1 122,868 108753
QIV-2004 16 0 0 54,996 59363.24
2005 QI-2005 17 0 0 48,159 61575.07
QII-2005
QIII-2005
QIV-2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9541018617
R Square 0.9103103626
Adjusted R Square 0.8878879532
Standard Error 8633.4079829334
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 9078058841.64016 3026019613.88005 40.5982402783 0.0000014667
Residual 12 894428800.797337 74535733.3997781
Total 15 9972487642.4375
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 23973.9585798817 5024.8911420028 4.7710403872 0.0004554627 13025.6612920048 34922.2558677585 13025.6612920048 34922.2558677585
TREND 2211.8284023669 469.5954868833 4.7100716769 0.0005055015 1188.6677307918 3234.9890739419 1188.6677307918 3234.9890739419
DUMMY 1 16345.1642011834 5292.0723733942 3.0886131269 0.0093864898 4814.7290185047 27875.5993838622 4814.7290185047 27875.5993838622
DUMMY 2 51601.5857988166 5292.0723733942 9.750733202 0.0000004701 40071.1506161378 63132.0209814953 40071.1506161378 63132.0209814953

PVB-TREND,DUMMIES & MORE

FORECAST WITH TREND, DUMMIES & MORE Q = 17082.68 + 707.75*T - 5690.14*UR - 2630.37*IR + 146.35*HS + 24473.19*D1 + 44668.40*D2
Actual Sales Figures
Year Quarter T Unemployment Rate (%) Interest Rate (%) House Sales Dummy 1 Dummy 2 Sales Predicted Sales With Trend, Dummies & More
1999 QI-1999
QII-1999
QIII-1999
QIV-1999
2000 QI-2000
QII-2000
QIII-2000
QIV-2000
2001 QI-2001 1 3.90 9.50 357 0 0 27,512 22,857
QII-2001 2 4.23 8.62 348 1 0 45,798 47,130
QIII-2001 3 4.40 7.34 461 0 1 76,968 86,998
QIV-2001 4 4.83 6.57 429 0 0 43,858 37,923
2002 QI-2002 5 5.53 5.16 366 0 0 30,580 29,136
QII-2002 6 5.70 4.75 369 1 0 53,198 54,877
QIII-2002 7 5.83 4.75 475 0 1 88,704 90,535
QIV-2002 8 5.73 4.75 459 0 0 51,590 44,802
2003 QI-2003 9 5.87 4.45 403 0 0 35,372 37,344
QII-2003 10 5.83 4.25 375 1 0 57,840 59,143
QIII-2003 11 6.13 4.24 490 0 1 93,388 95,196
QIV-2003 12 6.13 4.00 511 0 0 58,906 54,940
2004 QI-2004 13 5.87 4.00 472 0 0 39,382 51,457
QII-2004 14 5.67 4.00 425 1 0 75,219 70,898
QIII-2004 15 5.57 4.00 540 0 1 122,868 109,191
QIV-2004 16 5.43 4.42 532 0 0 54,996 63,722
2005 QI-2005 17 5.43 4.94 460 0 0 48,159 52,516
QII-2005
QIII-2005
QIV-2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9660369767
R Square 0.9332274404
Adjusted R Square 0.8887124007
Standard Error 8601.6053108063
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 9306599117.13148 1551099852.85525 20.9643178177 0.0000820708
Residual 9 665888525.306025 73987613.9228917
Total 15 9972487642.4375
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 17082.6821990134 122087.088255044 0.1399221035 0.8918028432 -259097.49898231 293262.863380337 -259097.49898231 293262.863380337
TREND 707.7472864822 1395.0276053367 0.5073356855 0.6241170187 -2448.0244032314 3863.5189761958 -2448.0244032314 3863.5189761958
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -5690.1370949809 13726.670912124 -0.4145314717 0.6881908468 -36742.024020216 25361.7498302542 -36742.024020216 25361.7498302542
INTEREST RATE -2630.3656541858 6893.1214700397 -0.3815928191 0.7116164869 -18223.6897616742 12962.9584533026 -18223.6897616742 12962.9584533026
HOUSE SALES 146.3542917684 91.889506229 1.5927204071 0.1456869226 -61.5142129334 354.2227964702 -61.5142129334 354.2227964702
DUMMY 1 24473.1939554966 7505.8797395477 3.2605363801 0.0098303032 7493.7143395768 41452.6735714164 7493.7143395768 41452.6735714164
DUMMY 2 44668.4016314116 6796.1413492653 6.5726122127 0.0001024588 29294.461798782 60042.3414640411 29294.461798782 60042.3414640411

FV-TREND ONLY

FORECAST WITH TREND ONLY Q = 457.23-7.94*T
Actual Sales Figures
Year Quarter T Sales Predicted Sales With Trend Only
1999 QI-1999
QII-1999
QIII-1999
QIV-1999
2000 QI-2000
QII-2000
QIII-2000
QIV-2000
2001 QI-2001 1 270 449.29
QII-2001 2 590 441.35
QIII-2001 3 252 433.41
QIV-2001 4 497 425.47
2002 QI-2002 5 464 417.53
QII-2002 6 495 409.59
QIII-2002 7 370 401.65
QIV-2002 8 567 393.71
2003 QI-2003 9 541 385.77
QII-2003 10 351 377.83
QIII-2003 11 331 369.89
QIV-2003 12 137 361.95
2004 QI-2004 13 285 354.01
QII-2004 14 344 346.07
QIII-2004 15 360 338.13
QIV-2004 16 382 330.19
2005 QI-2005 17 580 322.25
QII-2005
QIII-2005
QIV-2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.2993843156
R Square 0.0896309684
Adjusted R Square 0.024604609
Standard Error 124.674920992
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 21425.2970588235 21425.2970588235 1.3783790027 0.2599630271
Residual 14 217613.702941176 15543.8359243697
Total 15 239039
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 457.225 65.3800801407 6.993338017 0.0000063142 316.9986744593 597.4513255407 316.9986744593 597.4513255407
TREND -7.9382352941 6.7614469223 -1.1740438674 0.2599630271 -22.4400966442 6.563626056 -22.4400966442 6.563626056

QI-2001 QII-2001 QIII-2001 QIV-2001 QI-2002 QII-2002 QIII-2002 QIV-2002 QI-2003 QII-2003 QIII-2003 QIV-2003 QI-2004 QII-2004 QIII-2004 QIV-2004 270 590 252 497 464 495 370 567 541 351 331 137 285 344 360 382

FV-TREND AND DUMMIES

FORECAST WITH TREND AND DUMMIES Q = 454.88 - 7.29*T + 48.48*D1 - 60.98*D2
Actual Sales Figures
Year Quarter T Dummy 1 Dummy 2 Sales Predicted Sales With Trend & Dummies
1999 QI-1999
QII-1999
QIII-1999
QIV-1999
2000 QI-2000
QII-2000
QIII-2000
QIV-2000
2001 QI-2001 1 0 0 270 447.59
QII-2001 2 1 0 590 488.78
QIII-2001 3 0 1 252 372.03
QIV-2001 4 0 0 497 425.72
2002 QI-2002 5 0 0 464 418.43
QII-2002 6 1 0 495 459.62
QIII-2002 7 0 1 370 342.87
QIV-2002 8 0 0 567 396.56
2003 QI-2003 9 0 0 541 389.27
QII-2003 10 1 0 351 430.46
QIII-2003 11 0 1 331 313.71
QIV-2003 12 0 0 137 367.4
2004 QI-2004 13 0 0 285 360.11
QII-2004 14 1 0 344 401.3
QIII-2004 15 0 1 360 284.55
QIV-2004 16 0 0 382 338.24
2005 QI-2005 17 0 0 580 330.95
QII-2005
QIII-2005
QIV-2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4358143354
R Square 0.1899341349
Adjusted R Square -0.0125823313
Standard Error 127.0293057787
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 45401.6656804734 15133.8885601578 0.9378700825 0.4526632819
Residual 12 193637.334319527 16136.4445266272
Total 15 239039
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 454.8772189349 73.9347004849 6.1524184984 0.0000492822 293.7873449608 615.9670929091 293.7873449608 615.9670929091
TREND -7.2943786982 6.9094833481 -1.0557053734 0.3118943182 -22.3488496635 7.760092267 -22.3488496635 7.760092267
DUMMY 1 48.4778106509 77.8659228258 0.6225805704 0.5452095495 -121.1774609959 218.1330822977 -121.1774609959 218.1330822977
DUMMY 2 -60.9778106509 77.8659228258 -0.7831129259 0.4487406268 -230.6330822977 108.6774609959 -230.6330822977 108.6774609959

FV-TREND,DUMMIES & MORE

FORECAST WITH TREND, DUMMIES & MORE Q = 1833.56 - 17.99*T - 122.14*UR - 86.48*IR - 0.37*HS + 17.92*D1 - 51.82*D2
Actual Sales Figures
Year Quarter T Unemployment Rate (%) Interest Rate (%) House Sales Dummy 1 Dummy 2 Sales Predicted Sales With Trend, Dummies & More
1999 QI-1999
QII-1999
QIII-1999
QIV-1999
2000 QI-2000
QII-2000
QIII-2000
QIV-2000
2001 QI-2001 1 3.90 9.50 357 0 0 270 386
QII-2001 2 4.23 8.62 348 1 0 590 424
QIII-2001 3 4.40 7.34 461 0 1 252 385
QIV-2001 4 4.83 6.57 429 0 0 497 445
2002 QI-2002 5 5.53 5.16 366 0 0 464 486
QII-2002 6 5.70 4.75 369 1 0 495 500
QIII-2002 7 5.83 4.75 475 0 1 370 357
QIV-2002 8 5.73 4.75 459 0 0 567 409
2003 QI-2003 9 5.87 4.45 403 0 0 541 421
QII-2003 10 5.83 4.25 375 1 0 351 453
QIII-2003 11 6.13 4.24 490 0 1 331 287
QIV-2003 12 6.13 4.00 511 0 0 137 334
2004 QI-2004 13 5.87 4.00 472 0 0 285 363
QII-2004 14 5.67 4.00 425 1 0 344 404
QIII-2004 15 5.57 4.00 540 0 1 360 286
QIV-2004 16 5.43 4.42 532 0 0 382 303
2005 QI-2005 17 5.43 4.94 460 0 0 580 266
QII-2005
QIII-2005
QIV-2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.5223733682
R Square 0.2728739358
Adjusted R Square -0.2118767737
Standard Error 138.9690162345
Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 65227.5127413725 10871.2521235621 0.5629160112 0.7507034749
Residual 9 173811.487258627 19312.3874731808
Total 15 239039
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1833.5636696609 1972.4600160881 0.9295821739 0.3768467638 -2628.4508840658 6295.5782233876 -2628.4508840658 6295.5782233876
TREND -17.9861405421 22.5383061566 -0.7980253892 0.4454008392 -68.9713312517 32.9990501675 -68.9713312517 32.9990501675
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -122.1364955984 221.7704584092 -0.5507338375 0.5952202114 -623.8161265857 379.543135389 -623.8161265857 379.543135389
INTEREST RATE -86.4761805248 111.3664571743 -0.7765011361 0.4573741146 -338.4046093171 165.4522482676 -338.4046093171 165.4522482676
HOUSE SALES -0.370930494 1.4845826821 -0.2498550593 0.8083090304 -3.7292898422 2.9874288541 -3.7292898422 2.9874288541
DUMMY 1 17.9247193346 121.2662852676 0.1478128838 0.8857489968 -256.3986764894 292.2481151586 -256.3986764894 292.2481151586
DUMMY 2 -51.8236984389 109.7996296472 -0.4719842736 0.6481716208 -300.2077171179 196.5603202401 -300.2077171179 196.5603202401