WRITING

Borchers 1

Dylan Borchers

Professor Bullock

English 102, Section 4

31 March 2012

Against the Odds:

Harry S. Truman and the Election of 1948

“Thomas E. Dewey’s Election as President Is a Foregone

Conclusion,” read a headline in the New York Times during the

presidential election race between incumbent Democrat Harry S.

Truman and his Republican challenger, Thomas E. Dewey. Earlier,

Life magazine had put Dewey on its cover with the caption “The

Next President of the United States” (qtd. in “1948 Truman-Dewey

Election”). In a Newsweek survey of fifty prominent political writers,

each one predicted Truman’s defeat, and Time correspondents

declared that Dewey would carry 39 of the 48 states (Donaldson

210). Nearly every major media outlet across the United States

endorsed Dewey and lambasted Truman. As historian Robert H.

Ferrell observes, even Truman’s wife, Bess, thought he would be

beaten (270).

The results of an election are not so easily predicted, as the

famous photograph in fig. 1 shows. Not only did Truman win the

election, but he won by a significant margin, with 303 electoral

votes and 24,179,259 popular votes, compared to Dewey’s 189

electoral votes and 21,991,291 popular votes (Donaldson 204-07). In

fact, many historians and political analysts argue that Truman

would have won by an even greater margin had third-party

Progressive candidate Henry A. Wallace not split the Democratic

1”

1”

1 2 ”

1” 1”

Title centered.

Author named in signal phrase, page numbers in parentheses.

Last name and page number.

Double-spaced throughout.

BorchersREV.indd 1 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 2

vote in New York State and Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond not won

four states in the South (McCullough 711). Although Truman’s

defeat was heavily predicted, those predictions themselves,

Dewey’s passiveness as a campaigner, and Truman’s zeal turned

the tide for a Truman victory.

In the months preceding the election, public opinion polls

predicted that Dewey would win by a large margin. Pollster Elmo

Roper stopped polling in September, believing there was no reason

to continue, given a seemingly inevitable Dewey landslide. Although

the margin narrowed as the election drew near, the other pollsters

predicted a Dewey win by at least 5 percent (Donaldson 209). Many

Fig. 1. President Harry S. Truman holds up an Election Day edition

of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which mistakenly announced “Dewey

Defeats Truman.” St. Louis, 4 Nov. 1948 (Rollins).

No signal phrase; author and page number in parentheses.

Paragraphs indent 1–2 inch or 5 spaces.

Illustration close to the text to which it relates. Fig- ure number, caption, and parenthetical source docu- mentation included.

BorchersREV.indd 2 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 3

historians believe that these predictions aided the president in the

long run. First, surveys showing Dewey in the lead may have

prompted some of Dewey’s supporters to feel overconfident about

their candidate’s chances and therefore to stay home from the polls

on Election Day. Second, these same surveys may have energized

Democrats to mount late get-out-the-vote efforts (“1948 Truman-

Dewey Election”). Other analysts believe that the overwhelming

predictions of a Truman loss also kept at home some Democrats

who approved of Truman’s policies but saw a Truman loss as

inevitable. According to political analyst Samuel Lubell, those

Democrats may have saved Dewey from an even greater defeat (qtd.

in Hamby, Man of the People 465). Whatever the impact on the voters,

the polling numbers had a decided effect on Dewey.

Historians and political analysts alike cite Dewey’s overly

cautious campaign as one of the main reasons Truman was able to

achieve victory. Dewey firmly believed in public opinion polls. With

all indications pointing to an easy victory, Dewey and his staff

believed that all he had to do was bide his time and make no

foolish mistakes. Dewey himself said, “When you’re leading, don’t

talk” (qtd. in McCullough 672). Each of Dewey’s speeches was well

crafted and well rehearsed. As the leader in the race, he kept his

remarks faultlessly positive, with the result that he failed to deliver

a solid message or even mention Truman or any of Truman’s

policies. Eventually, Dewey began to be perceived as aloof and

stuffy. One observer compared him to the plastic groom on top of a

wedding cake (Hamby, “Harry S. Truman”), and others noted his

stiff, cold demeanor (McCullough 671-74).

Text quoted in another source.

Two or more works cited closely together.

BorchersREV.indd 3 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 4

As his campaign continued, observers noted that Dewey

seemed uncomfortable in crowds, unable to connect with ordinary

people. And he made a number of blunders. One took place at a

train stop when the candidate, commenting on the number of

children in the crowd, said he was glad they had been let out of

school for his arrival. Unfortunately for Dewey, it was a Saturday

(“1948: The Great Truman Surprise”). Such gaffes gave voters the

feeling that Dewey was out of touch with the public.

Again and again through the autumn of 1948, Dewey’s

campaign speeches failed to address the issues, with the candidate

declaring that he did not want to “get down in the gutter” (qtd. in

McCullough 701). When told by fellow Republicans that he was

losing ground, Dewey insisted that his campaign not alter its

course. Even Time magazine, though it endorsed and praised him,

conceded that his speeches were dull (McCullough 696). According

to historian Zachary Karabell, they were “notable only for taking

place, not for any specific message” (244). Dewey’s numbers in the

polls slipped in the weeks before the election, but he still held a

comfortable lead over Truman. It would take Truman’s famous

whistle-stop campaign to make the difference.

Few candidates in U.S. history have campaigned for the

presidency with more passion and faith than Harry Truman. In the

autumn of 1948, he wrote to his sister, “It will be the greatest

campaign any President ever made. Win, lose, or draw, people will

know where I stand” (91). For thirty-three days, Truman traveled

the nation, giving hundreds of speeches from the back of the

Ferdinand Magellan railroad car. In the same letter, he described the

BorchersREV.indd 4 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 5

pace: “We made about 140 stops and I spoke over 147 times, shook

hands with at least 30,000 and am in good condition to start out

again tomorrow for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Jersey City, Newark,

Albany and Buffalo” (91). McCullough writes of Truman’s campaign:

No President in history had ever gone so far in quest of

support from the people, or with less cause for the

effort, to judge by informed opinion. . . . As a test of his

skills and judgment as a professional politician, not to

say his stamina and disposition at age sixty-four, it

would be like no other experience in his long, often

difficult career, as he himself understood perfectly. More

than any other event in his public life, or in his

presidency thus far, it would reveal the kind of man he

was. (655)

He spoke in large cities and small towns, defending his

policies and attacking Republicans. As a former farmer and

relatively late bloomer, Truman was able to connect with the

public. He developed an energetic style, usually speaking from

notes rather than from a prepared speech, and often mingled with

the crowds that met his train. These crowds grew larger as the

campaign progressed. In Chicago, over half a million people lined

the streets as he passed, and in St. Paul the crowd numbered over

25,000. When Dewey entered St. Paul two days later, he was greeted

by only 7,000 supporters (“1948 Truman-Dewey Election”).

Reporters brushed off the large crowds as mere curiosity seekers

wanting to see a president (McCullough 682). Yet Truman persisted,

even if he often seemed to be the only one who thought he could

Quotations of 4 or more lines indented 1 inch (10 spaces).

Parenthetical reference after final punctua- tion.

Use the title if no author is given.

BorchersREV.indd 5 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 6

win. By going directly to the American people and connecting with

them, Truman built the momentum needed to surpass Dewey and

win the election.

The legacy and lessons of Truman’s whistle-stop campaign

continue to be studied by political analysts, and politicians today

often mimic his campaign methods by scheduling multiple visits

to key states, as Truman did. He visited California, Illinois, and

Ohio 48 times, compared with 6 visits to those states by Dewey.

Political scientist Thomas M. Holbrook concludes that his strategic

campaigning in those states and others gave Truman the electoral

votes he needed to win (61, 65).

The 1948 election also had an effect on pollsters, who, as

Elmo Roper admitted, “couldn’t have been more wrong” (qtd. in

Karabell 255). Life magazine’s editors concluded that pollsters as

well as reporters and commentators were too convinced of a

Dewey victory to analyze the polls seriously, especially the

opinions of undecided voters (Karabell 256). Pollsters assumed that

undecided voters would vote in the same proportion as decided

voters--and that turned out to be a false assumption (Karabell 258).

In fact, the lopsidedness of the polls might have led voters who

supported Truman to call themselves undecided out of an

unwillingness to associate themselves with the losing side, further

skewing the polls’ results (McDonald, Glynn, Kim, and Ostman

152). Such errors led pollsters to change their methods significantly

after the 1948 election.

After the election, many political analysts, journalists, and

historians concluded that the Truman upset was in fact a victory

Work by 4 authors.

BorchersREV.indd 6 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 7

for the American people, who, the New Republic noted, “couldn’t be

ticketed by the polls, knew its own mind and had picked the rather

unlikely but courageous figure of Truman to carry its banner” (qtd.

in McCullough 715). How “unlikely” is unclear, however; Truman

biographer Alonzo Hamby notes that “polls of scholars consistently

rank Truman among the top eight presidents in American history”

(Man of the People 641). But despite Truman’s high standing, and

despite the fact that the whistle-stop campaign is now part of our

political landscape, politicians have increasingly imitated the style

of the Dewey campaign, with its “packaged candidate who ran so

as not to lose, who steered clear of controversy, and who made a

good show of appearing presidential” (Karabell 266). The election of

1948 shows that voters are not necessarily swayed by polls, but it

may have presaged the packaging of candidates by public relations

experts, to the detriment of public debate on the issues in future

presidential elections.

BorchersREV.indd 7 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 8

Works Cited

Donaldson, Gary A. Truman Defeats Dewey. Lexington: UP of

Kentucky, 1999. Print.

Ferrell, Robert H. Harry S. Truman: A Life. Columbia: U of Missouri P,

1994. Print.

Hamby, Alonzo L., ed. “Harry S. Truman (1945-1953).” American

President: A Reference Resource. Miller Center, U of Virginia, 11

Jan. 2012. Web. 17 Mar. 2012.

---. Man of the People: A Life of Harry S. Truman. New York: Oxford UP,

1995. Print.

Holbrook, Thomas M. “Did the Whistle-Stop Campaign Matter?” PS:

Political Science and Politics 35.1 (2002): 59-66. Print.

Karabell, Zachary. The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the

1948 Election. New York: Knopf, 2000. Print.

McCullough, David. Truman. New York: Simon, 1992. Print.

McDonald, Daniel G., Carroll J. Glynn, Sei-Hill Kim, and Ronald E.

Ostman. “The Spiral of Silence in the 1948 Presidential

Election.” Communication Research 28.2 (2001): 139-55. Print.

“1948: The Great Truman Surprise.” The Press and the Presidency.

Dept. of Political Science and International Affairs, Kennesaw

State U, 29 Oct. 2003. Web. 20 Mar. 2012.

“1948 Truman-Dewey Election.” American Political History. Eagleton

Inst. of Politics, Rutgers, State U of New Jersey, 2012. Web. 19

Mar. 2012.

Rollins, Byron. Untitled photograph. “The First 150 Years: 1948.” AP

History. Associated Press, n.d. Web. 23 Mar. 2012.

Heading centered.

Alphabetized by authors’ last names.

Multiple works by a single author listed alpha- betically by title.

Alphabetized by title for works with no author.

Double- spaced.

Each entry begins at the left margin; subsequent lines are indented.

BorchersREV.indd 8 1/16/14 12:00 PM

Borchers 9

“Against the Odds: Harry S. Truman and the Election of 1948.” Reprinted by permission of Dylan Borchers.

Truman, Harry S. “Campaigning, Letter, October 5, 1948.” Harry S.

Truman. Ed. Robert H. Ferrell. Washington: CQ P, 2003. 91.

Print.

Every source used is in the list of works cited.

BorchersREV.indd 9 1/16/14 12:00 PM