discussion

MISWANTING: Are you sure that’s what you want?

Negotiators often err in predicting how happy a particular outcome will make them.

In studies, groups of students, voters, newspaper readers, and job seekers all overestimated their unhappy

reactions to failed romances, political defeats, upsetting news, and personal rejections, respectively. We

accurately expect that we’ll be cheered by good fortune and upset by bad news, but we err in assuming how

strong and lasting that mood will be.

Why do we have so much trouble anticipating the strength of our feelings? Because, when we imagine a

certain outcome, we focus too much on how it will affect us and too little on other events in our lives that will

be occurring simultaneously. You might expect that you’ll be ecstatic if you procure your dream job. But if

someone in your family becomes seriously ill around the same time you get the job, you may be too

distracted and worried to enjoy your new role.

In addition, when making choices, we tend to focus on large differences between options and overlook

similarities that could affect us more. In a study with Elizabeth Dunn of the University of British Columbia, for

example, Wilson and Gilbert found that undergraduate students who were randomly assigned with groups of

friends to various dormitories underestimated how stable social factors would influence their happiness and

overestimated the effect of obvious physical differences between the dorms, such as location, on their

happiness.

Yet a keener understanding of what will make you happy can help you make better choices in negotiation. In

particular, keep in mind that vivid fears and desires as well as obvious differences between options are likely

to capture your attention. Balance these concerns by factoring other issues that will affect your happiness

into the equation. Research shows that money does not correlate strongly with lasting happiness, for

instance, but that friendships and other social ties do

For negotiators who agonize over hard choices, awareness of the impact bias can bring solace. Knowing that

you’re likely to bounce back from adversity may free you to take calculated risks, and overcoming unrealistic

expectations may promote greater long-term contentment.

■ We expect future events to affect our emotions more than they actually do.

■ In negotiation, miswanting often leads us to make poor choices.

■ Similarities between options may affect us just as much as differences.

■ Money may not bring happiness, but strong, close social ties can.

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