problems
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complete_prob_4.docx
Complete Prob 4, and 2
4. The following data are monthly sales of jeans at a local department store. The buyer would like to forecast sales of jeans for the next month, July.
· (a)Forecast sales of jeans for March through June using the naïve method, a two-period moving average, and exponential smoothing with an α = 0.2. (Hint: Use naïve to start the exponential smoothing process.)
· (b)Compare the forecasts using MAD and decide which is best.
· (c)Using your method of choice, make a forecast for the month of July.
|
Month |
Sales |
|
January |
45 |
|
February |
30 |
|
March |
40 |
|
April |
50 |
|
May |
55 |
|
June |
47 |
1. Jack, the owner and manager of Jack’s Box Company, wants to monitor usage at Work Center 3, which is a bottleneck in the system. He has collected data on the planned and actual input and output.
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Input Information (in hours)
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4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
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Planned input |
40 |
50 |
50 |
60 |
60 |
|
Actual input |
45 |
45 |
45 |
55 |
60 |
|
Deviation |
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|
|
|
|
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Cumulative deviation |
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Output Information (in hours)
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|||||
|
|
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
Planned output |
70 |
70 |
70 |
70 |
70 |
|
Actual output |
60 |
60 |
60 |
60 |
60 |
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Deviation |
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|
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Cumulative deviation |
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Backlog 75 hours |
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· (a)Complete the input/output record.
· (b)Describe your concerns based on the results of the input/output analysis.
2. Since Jack believes that Work Center 3 is his bottleneck, he has asked you to do the following:
· (a)Calculate the percentage of planned output needed to complete the planned inputs (planned input + backlog/planned output) at Work Center 3.
· (b)Calculate the percentage of planned input that actually happened (actual input + backlog/planned input + backlog).
· (c)Calculate the percentage of available output that was actually accomplished (actual output/planned output) at Work Center 3.
· (d)Given your results, do you believe that Jack is correct in assuming that Work Center 3 is his bottleneck? Justify your answer.
Complete Prob 4, and 2
4. The following data are monthly sales of jeans at a local department store. The buyer would like to
forecast sales of jeans for the next month, July.
·
(a)
Forecast sales of jeans for March through June using the naïve method, a two
-
period moving
average, a
nd exponential smoothing with an
á
= 0.2. (
Hint
: Use naïve to start the exponential
smoothing process.)
·
(b)
Compare the forecasts using
MAD
and decide which is best.
·
(c)
Using your method of choice, make a forecast for the month of July.
Month
Sales
January
45
February
30
March
40
April
50
May
55
June
47
Complete Prob 4, and 2
4. The following data are monthly sales of jeans at a local department store. The buyer would like to
forecast sales of jeans for the next month, July.
(a)Forecast sales of jeans for March through June using the naïve method, a two-period moving
average, and exponential smoothing with an α = 0.2. (Hint: Use naïve to start the exponential
smoothing process.)
(b)Compare the forecasts using MAD and decide which is best.
(c)Using your method of choice, make a forecast for the month of July.
Month Sales
January 45
February 30
March 40
April 50
May 55
June 47
