homeland security progress

Welcome to Week 7 of the Chemical, Biological, Radiological and nuclear Threats to the Homeland course!

To put things in perspective so far for this term, “Over 11,500 terrorist attacks occurred in 72 countries in 2010, resulting in approximately 50,000 victims, including almost 13,200 deaths. Although the number of attacks rose by almost 5 percent over the previous year, the number of deaths declined for a third consecutive year, dropping 12 percent from 2009” (The American-Israeli Cooperative Enterprise 2012). How many of you would have guessed that deaths directly related to terrorism would be declining?

Now let's dive into this week topic -- Nuclear Weapons and Materials Hazards  

Is it possible for terrorist organization to develop and employ a suitcase nuclear weapon? Have they are done so? This week we will delve deep into the technical understanding of these weapons, materials, and associated hazards.

In his article titled, How Many and Where Were the Nukes? What the U.S. Government No Longer Wants You to Know about Nuclear Weapons During the Cold War , Burr (2006) discloses that, “Declassification decisions on U.S. nuclear weapons information by federal agencies have taken a surprising turn. Security reviewers are treating as ‘classified’ information that has been available in the public record for decades.” He goes on later to say, “excessive secrecy continues to abound in another category of historical nuclear information: the overseas deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons during the Cold War. Information on the deployments that has been publicly available for many years is also being classified by U.S. government agencies” (Burr 2006).  This  certainly makes us wonder why, because this information was once publicly available.

In the 20th and 21st Century, nuclear weapons are undoubtedly the ultimate weapon of mass destruction. Nuclear weapons ended WWII, and were the primary threat of the Cold War. One to four kilograms of plutonium – that’s all scientists in the Department of Energy estimate is needed to make a small nuclear weapon. They say that the average head weighs eight pounds (FAS n.d.). That’s a weight that a head and four kilograms of plutonium have in common. The explosion that destroyed Nagasaki weighed in at a “hefty” 6.2 kilograms (FAS n.d.). How much money would it take a terrorist organization to build its own nuclear weapon? That answer is not easily determined for several reasons. Black markets drive the price of such a “hot” commodity even higher than it would be in the mainstream market where official researchers and scientists purchase their materials. On the other hand, desperation to acquire materials at any cost is much higher, so “deals” and trades are more common for terrorists who are looking to purchase nuclear materials needed. No matter what one thing is for sure – the price is not low. This poses a problem for terrorists; even though many larger organizations, like al-Qaeda, are well-funded, the price of building a “stable” nuclear bomb may be too high for them. In this case, dirty bombs have been created as a substitute to a pure nuclear bomb because the cost and risk of acquiring materials for a pure device are exceptionally high.

Though on a much larger scale, the United States spent approximately $409 billion “developing, testing, and building the actual bombs and warheads” from 1940-1996 (NTI 2007). This is, obviously, not indicative of how much a terrorist organization or country would have to spend on a nuclear bomb.  

It does gives an idea of how much research and development has gone into creating these weapons in the most pristine environments throughout the years. At the estimated needed weigh of plutonium, the cost of that material, alone, would cost anywhere from four to 16 million. This is no small investment for any organization, so the likelihood of any of them having the capabilities to do so are lower than, say, a country. Given that much of the research and development to create a bomb has been conducted since the early 1940’s, those particular costs can be kept down by reusing pre-existing plans.

There are other issues to consider other than acquiring materials, however. Finding a location secure enough to develop a bomb without detection and recruiting scientists willing to participate in their creation also pose severe problems to the process. Some of the materials like plutonium and uranium give off very specific signatures; even though they make be slight, the possibility of getting caught moving them is, indeed, a factor. These issues are just a scratch in the surface of details that must be considered when creating a nuclear weapon of mass destruction. While terrorist organizations can use meticulous planning techniques, the atomic bomb possess a much larger challenge than, probably, ANY other of type of weapon. It’s not an impossible task, but it’s highly improbable.  

Kim-Jong Il was the leader of North Korea recognized for his nuclear ambitions. He was preceded by  his  father,  Kim-Il  Song,  and  was  recently succeeded by his son, Kim-Jung Un after his untimely death. For the past two decades the United States has been in a “battle” to secure North Korea’s nuclear technology. For this week’s discussion I wanted to focus on this country because of the possible detrimental effects this could have on the entire world – they certainly have been in the news lately! We all know the stories and images that come out of the North, we’ve seen the stories, we’ve heard about the Korean conflict, and we also know about Kim Jong-Il -- his rhetoric, downright hatred of western society and his dictatorship. Today, North Korea possesses the 5th  largest  Army  in  the  world,  with  over  one  million soldiers and another one to two million able to be deployed at any time. Nuclear technology in the hands of an evil dictator with three million people at his command can be a major ingredient in a recipe for World War III. According to GlobalSecurity.org, North Korea has two reasons for obtain nuclear weapons: 1.) They want to make them and then give them up to the United States in an effort to maintain peace and increase foreign diplomacy and 2.) they are trying to build up a nuclear arsenal in anticipation (Global Security 2005). Anticipation of what?  We just don’t know – and still don’t know even with all of the latest actions of testing missiles.

North Korea has had ties with terrorism in the past, and even was linked to a bombing of a Korean Airlines flight that killed everyone on board in 1987.  More recently, they attacked and sunk a South Korean ship and then shelling an island, killing a total of 50 people, including two civilians (New York Times 2010). In response South Korea and the United States, (as allies) prepared for joint military drills. These drills have intimidated North Korea, which considers the drills as a rehearsal for invasion. In response, North Korea threatened to enlarge its nuclear arsenal and "mercilessly" attack both countries (New York Times 2010). In addition to the terrorist activity we see here, North Korea also has strong alliances with known terrorists in the Middle East.

The capabilities of North Korea’s nuclear program are mostly unknown or classified. North Koreas first nuclear plant was built in 1987 (New York Times 2010). From that reactor (capacity of five megawatts) it is capable of producing enough uranium fuel for the creation of one nuclear bomb each year (Associated Press 2011). There are also two or three more plants under construction, temporarily halted due to the 1994 Agreed Framework (Associated Press 2011). Signed on October 21, 1994, this agreement halted the nuclear weapons program in North Korea, and encouraged nuclear material as an energy source instead. The goal of the treaty was to strengthen diplomacy between the United States and North Korea. In 2003, under President Bush, all talks with North Korea fell through when Kim Jong-Il announced they had nuclear weapons and refused to halt its program. With those plants built- the potential capability of producing increases to 30 nuclear weapons a year (Sharma 2008). North Korea has also quickly and secretly built a new uranium enrichment plant that could contain up to 2,000 centrifuges, this according to U.S. nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University, who said he was "stunned" by the sophistication of the facility, located near North Korea's nuclear facilities based at Yongbyon (Global Security 2005). The technology for a more sophisticated nuclear plant was bought from Pakistan in the sometime in the late 1990s (Global Security 2005). It has been noted that North Korea’s reactors are not being used as power plants because satellite imagery shows that there are no electric power lines coming from these facilities. Roughly three thousand scientists are working on the country’s nuclear research and development projects, but experts say it is hard to estimate the rate at which these programs are developing (Associated Press 2011).

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) speculated that North Korea produced sufficient plutonium for eight bombs, and expended one of these bombs in a test in Pakistan in 1998 (Global Security 2005). As of 2005, their plutonium bomb inventory would exist of seven weapons. Taking the mid-point of the DIA's estimate of between four and eight uranium bombs, the plausible uranium bomb stockpile as of early 2005 would be six weapons, increasing at a rate of one bomb every two months. Thus, the early 2005 stockpile would be 13 weapons, growing to about 20 weapons by the end of the year (Global Security 2005). Other evidence that supports that North Korea is in possession of nuclear weapons is that they have tested them. In 2006 and in 2009, North Korea tested nuclear weapons, the first test was thought to be around one kiloton and the second test though successful the actual yield of the weapon is still debated. The weapon went off underground triggering seismic activity, registered as a 4.7 on the Richter scale (Sharma 2008).

This all relates to instability in the area. As of today President Obama is working with China, Russia, and Japan to pressure the North to give up their nuclear program. The greater threat to the western way of life is the ability of Kim Jong-Il to sell a weapon to the highest bidder- including members of Al Qaeda or Hezbollah, and Hamas. North Korea has already been known for selling other weapons and technologies to these organizations, which only increases the threat. All it would take is a softball sized mass of enriched material to create havoc among a populous- either in the form of a dirty bomb, or worse, a nuclear bomb.  

References:

Associated Press. 2011. North Korea threatens to Attack South Korea [Article]. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/26/north-korea-threatens-south-korea/

Burr, William. 2006. How Many and Where Were the Nukes? What the U.S. Government No Longer Wants You to Know about Nuclear Weapons During the Cold War.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB197/index.htm

FAS n.d. Nuclearn Weapon Design.  http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/design.htm

Global Security. 2005. Nuclear Weapons Program [Article]. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nuke.htm  

NTI. 2007. The Costs of U.S. Nuclear Weapons. http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_atomic_audit.html

The New York Times. 2010, December 14. North Korea's Nuclear Program [Article]. http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/northkorea/nuclear_p rogram/index.html

The American-Israeli Cooperative Enterprise (2010). Incidents of Terrorism — 2010. http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Terrorism/terrorstats2010.html

Sharma, V. 2008, June 28. State Sponsors: North Korea. http://www.cfr.org/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/state- sponsors-north-korea/p9364