The future of WMD threats manifests themselves in the past threats. Large stockpiles of nuclear weapons remain and the list of nuclear capable states is expanding although slowly. Despite previous treaties and agreements Russian President Putin announced, “to upgrade his nuclear arsenal (Holehouse, 2015)” and to “this year put 40 new nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles into service (Holehouse, 2015).” Even though most of these types of actions and talk may be political grandstanding it does not appear that nuclear stockpiles are going to decrease much in the near future. Yet, what is the likelihood of a NPT member state actually using a WMD? I agree with Davidge (2015), “It’s unlikely these countries [NPT states] will be dropping a nuke any time soon.” Not to mention that chemical and biological weapons are so frowned upon in the international community, there use would only be possible by a non-state actor. The last use of chemical weapons by a state was probably Iraq, and we all saw what happened to them.
Thus, if a nuclear or other WMD attack is not likely to come from an NPT member state with the largest nuclear stockpiles, where is the future threat? Terrorism is the next option. Although, if Al Qaeda or ISIS were to have a nuclear weapon randomly falls into their hands, they would attempt to use it. However, “The odds are stacked against a terrorist successfully acquiring a nuclear bomb (Mowatt-Larssen, 2010).” Even a large-scale biological or chemical attack is unlikely. Most assumptions are that terrorists would employ small-scale forms of chemical, biological, and radiological weapons (Mowatt-Larssen, 2010). Although, nuclear terrorism is a threat, it seems more likely that conventional munitions would be used in a terrorist attack. Since 9/11 through a constant global anti-terrorism presence, a serious reduction in the amount of active terrorists (because of war), and the threat for terrorist leadership to receive a hellfire missile curiosity of an unmanned aerial vehicle has reduced the likelihood of large-scale attacks being executed across international boarders. Smaller, loan wolf attacks seem to be the most likely course of action for terrorist organizations for the near future, until a large-scale attack can be planned and executed (like that of 9/11). In today’s counterterrorism global effort, I think it will take some time for any large-scale attack to be planned, resourced, and executed.
If one of the original five NPT states and terrorism isn’t the future of WMD threats what is? All signs point to Asia and its nation states being the near future regional threat for global nuclear chaos. By 2030, the possibility of a nuclear Iran would have destabilized the Middle Eastern region, causing a Middle Eastern arms race, and Israel to increase its own nuclear capability and formally announce a nuclear program, increasing destabilization. North Korea further relies on its nuclear arsenal for international legitimacy and deterrence, citing Muammar Qadhafi’s western assisted overthrow after his abandonment of his nuclear weapons program. Other former soviet states take note of the Russian aggression in the Crimea after Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons. China continues conventional military buildup in the South China Sea, destabilizing the South Pacific. Japan, in range of a North Korean missile, unsupported by Russia, and having witnessed Chinese military build up for twenty years has a huge incentive to develop nuclear weapons. South Korea is in the same predicament. Pakistan and India maintain nuclear stockpiles in light of an Asian and Middle East arms race. Non-nuclear states, will maintain chemical weapon stockpiles citing the exception to use in the CWC (Caves & Carus, 2014). Non-state actors continue destabilization in whatever countries offer the best opportunities. I think it would be a good idea to keep an eye on Asia for the foreseeable future.
Thanks,
Mike
References
Caves, J.P., Carus, W. S. (2014). The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Their Nature and Role in 2030. National Defense University Press. Washington D.C. Retreived from http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/occasional/cswmd/CSWMD_OccationalPaper-10.pdf
Davidge, J. (2015). Nuclear Bombs Explained: How Likely is Nuclear War? Senses of Reason. London, UK. Retrieved from https://www.scenesofreason.com/nuclear-bombs-explained/
Holehouse, M. (2015). Nato Updates Cold War Playbook as Putin Vows to Build Nuclear Stockpile. The Telegraph. UK. Retrieved from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/predictions/politics/11697512/Nato-updates-Cold-War-playbook-as-Putin-vows-to-build-nuclear-stockpile.html
Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf. (2010). “Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype or Reality?” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. Retrieved from http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20014/proliferation_and_terrorism.html
dqbnez
michael_moratz_.docx
0
