English report editing

· Introduction

The kingdom Saudi Arabia is the fastest growing electricity consumer in the middle east, and the world's 15th largest consumer of primary energy, of which over 60 percent was petroleum-based, the remainder was made up of natural gas. 1 Saudi Arabia is a relatively rich and rapidly developing country, leading to a high increasing demand on electricity by about 15% annually. 3

In this table we can see the increase of the demand from 2000 to 2015, in 15 years the electricity generation capacity increased about 3 times more, also we can see an increase of the users by 44%.

2000		2015
25,790	Available Generation Capacity (MW)	69,154
21,673	Peak Load (MW)	62,260
114,161	Sold Energy (GWh)	285,674
3,622,391	Number of users	8,094,248

According to the Saudi electrical company over the next 25 years they will be equivalent US$117 billion invested by the government in the country’s power sector.3

When it comes to the power consumption for producing electricity Saudi Arabia consume about 45% of natural gas, 30% crude oil, 15% of diesel, and 10% of heavy fuel oil. In 200 power plants all around the country.

The following map shows the power plants in Saudi Arabia

From the 200 power stations there are only 45 power stations that are major and big enough to produce for the users, the rest are mostly owned by some certified private sectors and governmental major buildings providing significantly smaller capacity of power comparing to the other 45 power stations.

Power Station Name	MW capacity	Energy sources	Output MWh	CO2kg	Intensity KgMWh
Shoaiba power plant	4323	Heavy fuel oil	19,100,000	5,765,160,000	302
Rabigh Power plant “30%”	2661	Crude oil	16,100,000	4,688,290,000	291
Qurayyah Power plant "explosion” 5	2400	Crude oil and Natural gas	13,500,000	5,438,510,000	402

The following table shows the biggest three power stations in the country and as we can see the energy source for the biggest one is heavy fuel oil (the Shoaiba power plant). Those power stations facing issues with the high demand causing overload, earlier this year of 2016 Qurayyah power plant had an explosion from the overload and heat led to a fire afterward and power outages for some users.

Here are some examples of the biggest power stations in Saudi Arabia 4

Climate

Saudi Arabia is a large country with an area of 2,150,000 km2 (830,000 sq mi). It has a desert climate characterized by extreme heat during the day, and an abrupt drop in temperature at night. The highest average wind speed is 8 mph (gentle breeze) and the lowest average wind speed is 5 mph (light breeze). The daylight om Jun for more than 13 and a half hours a day and the annual daylight hours’ average in SA about 12 hours of light a day.2

Here are the average daylight hours in Saudi Arabia

The explosion at Qurayyah Power plan

Current Situation

· System Failures and Errors

The current system has a history of power outages because of the demand we mentioned. In 2011 Power outages in the capital Saudi Arabia (Riyadh) along with the Eastern region of the country due to overload from Jubail industrial city industrial city, after the incident Saudi electrical company has announced that they don’t have any problem covering the high demand.6

In July 15, 2010 a major hospital (Specialized Medical Center Hospital) in the heart of the capital Riyadh has a power outage twice in the same day along with the around neighborhood from 10:00am to 1:30pm and again from 7:00pm to 11:00. The hospital had 255 admitted patients, gladly the emergency generators were able to operate for the sensitive areas such as the critical care unit and the intensive care hospital crib. But the hospital wasn’t able to take any patients nor there were more than 15 ambulances outside the hospital to move the patients to different hospitals. The following photos shows patients families, the ambulances and the backup power generators.

In June 2014 far south of the country seven people died five for them wear newborn babies and kidney patients because of a power outage last for days. The power was cut because of attack from Yemen, and the backup generators weren’t able to work. 8

In 2009 factories in the west side of the country Jeddah blamed the Saudi electrical company for 12 power cuts in one month, in respond the Saudi electrical company announced that “the power cut was intentional since the because of the high load we have to make sure the major users such as hospitals are more important have power than the factories” those power cuts coast the factories about US $135 million.9

· System Cost

The use of oil and natural gas is dramatically increasing in the country, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries “OPEC” daily needs in Saudi Arabia is about 3.1 million oil barrels a day and from May 2013 until May 2014 had an estimated increase by 274,000 oil barrels a day. And for the natural gas the daily use was equivalent to 1.9 million oil barrels a day. Leading to a total estimated use of 5 million oil barrels a day. One third of that oil is used for electricity. 10

In the following graph it shows the usage of oil and natural gas, and as we can see if nothing changes we might be approaching around 7 million oil barrels a day. It has increased 7% yearly, and about nine times more since 1970.

The consumption of Saudi Arabia in 2013 was about 5 million barrels a day that’s as much as the US, China, Russia, Japan and India in which those countries have 5 to 40 times more population than Saudi Arabia.

Usage per person = 40 times the average usage

In 2013 the annual support to the energy sector from the government was about US$120 billion worth of fuel, US$40 billion worth of fuel was for the electricity sector only.10 This generous support from the government lead to what the experts called oil addiction.

· Environmental issues

In Saudi Arabia the generation of electricity is 100% of non-renewable resources. generation of electricity power from non-renewable resources produces more pollution than any other single industry, due to the use of fossil fuels such as crude oil, coal and natural gas. The 70k mw of electricity produces about 93 million tons of carbon emissions annually.

The pollution caused by generating electricity in Saudi Arabia is effecting the sea water, the air and the soil. Based on perceptions of visitors of a website called NUMBEO, the website gathers numerical facts about all countries around the world in the past 3 years. Saudi Arabia has water pollution by adding chemical materials to the cooling water drained back to the sea and the degree of cooling water drained into the sea in a scale of (0-100) = 62.50%, If the value is 0, it means it is perceived as very low, and if the value is 100, it means it is perceived as very high.

The air pollution caused by the emission of air-polluting gases and pollutants through the chimneys of the generation units. The 70k mw of electricity produces about 93 million tons of carbon emissions annually in SA. On the same scale the air pollution is 85.71% in Saudi. 12

Add to that the Soil Contamination by power transformers that use oils containing carcinogenic substances such as polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and spills, leakages. PCB are group of man-made compounds that were widely used in the past mainly in electrical equipment, was banded at the end of the 1970s in many countries because of the environment concern.22

The following table shows the air pollutant emissions by fuel type, amount of pollution using natural gas, oil and coal. In SA most of the major electricity power plants use oil in which as showing on the table has the more negative impact comparing to natural gas.

Fossil Fuel Emission Levels– Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input
Pollutant	Natural Gas	Oil	Coal
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)	117,000	164,000	208,000
Carbon Monoxide (CO)	40	33	208
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)	92	448	457
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)	1	1,122	2,591
Particulates	7	84	2,744
Mercury	0.000	0.007	0.016
Source: EIA – Natural Gas Issues and Trends 1998 11

Note:(Btu or BTU) is the British thermal unit it is a traditional unit of work equal to about 1055 joules.

· Monopolizing the Electricity

There is an absolute monopoly in Saudi Arabia for the four major sectors the electricity by the Saudi Electrical Company, the water by the National Water Company, the public transportation by Saudi transport Aljmaay and the natural gas by the gas and industrialization company. This monopoly causes high pricing for customers, low level of service and big challenge to those companies to cover the high demand and the fast growth.

The telecom and communication was monopolized 100% by the Saudi Telecom Company (STC). STC was providing very expensive service for the users and it had very bad network coverage around the country, until 2004 when the government allowed another companies to share the market. Two big telecoms company joined the market since (Mobily shares 38% of the market) and (Zain shares 17.3% of the market) and STC got to keep 44.4% of the market. This market share resulted to a great service and coverage and most importantly it didn’t hurt STC value nor there was a dramatic increase in their stock value from US$130 in 2004 to US$326.9 in 2006 (the highest price in the company history). And the prices for the service dropped down by 75% for the customers. Also having those two companies has opened a lot of job opportunities for the Saudi citizen, those two companies have 59,000 employees in total.

The Saudi Electricity Company “SEC” is the only electricity generator and provider in Saudi Arabia and they are the only ones who are authorized to sell electricity to the user. In 2012, the country demand for electricity was about 56k MW, where Saudi electrical company where able to deliver 54k MW (2000 MW short). So the user is forced to deal with only electricity provider that provides low level of service and the high cost to the user. This kind of monopoly is hurting SEC and the nation economy, where SEC thinks it is more profitable. Based on the SEC the company has no future plans for any long term plans or renewable energy plans to cover the high demand expect some integration to its current plants.

· Problem Summary

Saudi Arabia is growing fast, so it needs a sustainable reliable electricity sources that can cover the continuous increase need of electricity and it should be safe for the customer with no errors or power outages. The current system seems to be failing to achieves covering the increases of 15% annually on the demand.

So, when the demand is not covered a causing major power outages that are affecting the user’s life in hospitals as we mentioned in the previous examples in Riyadh and the south part of the country, also the intentional power cut by SEC to factories on the west side of the country Jeddah because of the lack of power capacity costing those factories a lot of money.

The current system is costing the government a lot of money and fuel, and the current system has a big daily increase of (274,000 oil barrels a day) in using fuel.

There is only one provider (Saudi Electric company) to the customer in our system

leaving zero room for competition for better quality, and causing high billing prices for the users. This kind of Monopoly is giving SEC no motive to use any new technology since they are the only one in business.

Our current system has a very high negative impact on the environment, since the system is using heavy fuel oil, crude oil, and natural gas. The percentage we mentioned earlier that says 45% of the 200 stations uses natural gas is based on the number of the plants, but looking closely the system uses heavy fuel oil and diesel more than natural gas since its used in the major big power plants. This system is causing water pollution, air pollution, oil contamination and also affecting our food indirectly.

· System Stakeholders

· The Government.

The Saudi government is the biggest stakeholder since it’s the main financial funder to our system, it provides all the financial support to the whole power sectors. It owns 74.3% from the Saudi Electrical company. The government also is the biggest user for the system paying the bills for the governmental buildings, public hospitals, and public schools etc. Meaning that it is the only stakeholder that can make all the major changes in our system.

· Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)

Saudi Electricity Company is the only electrical grid provider, it monopolizes the generation, transmission and distribution through 45 major power generation plants in the country, with more than 41,000 employees.

· The Ministry of Energy Industry and Minerals.

The ministry is primarily responsible for the policies concerning oil, gas and natural minerals in the country which is the world's largest holder of crude oil reserves. It closely monitors the activities of the Saudi Aramco together with the Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals. The ministry has the function of developing and implementing policies concerning petroleum and related products. The Ministry mainly provides the fossil fuel for our system.

· The Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture. (MOWE)

The ministry role is indicating the user by running awareness campaigns for water and electricity consumption, also provides some environmental facts. The MOWE started water saving awareness campaign called (resolution in your hand) and the National campaign to rationalization the consumption of electricity on their website, but unfortunately the link for those campaigns does not work.

· Users.

The electricity buyers and consumers, and based on SEC they are 5 categories of the consumers/users and the pricing is different for each category

1. Residential. (Houses, apartments…etc.)

2. Commercial. (malls, shops, restaurants...etc.)

3. Arboriculture and charities. (forms, nonprofit organizations…etc.)

4. Governmental. (ministries buildings, public schools, public hospitals…etc.)

5. Industrial, private educational facilities, private medical facilities.

The following table shows the most updated the pricing for the user based on the category

10 Halalah = US$ 2.6*10-2

· System’s Requirements

In this section I will talk about our new system’s requirements. Systems requirements shall include those tasks that go into determining the needs or conditions to meet our alternatives, taking account of the possibly conflicting requirements of the various stakeholders, analyzing, documenting, validating and managing the system’s requirements.

Our new system, shall manage and decrease power cuts from overload by 100% within 5 years, have zero negative impact on the user by having a fast responding safe exit, decrease the oil and gas demand for generating electricity in the country as low as 5% by 2050, promote the use of the clean energy for the user, rely 100% on clean energy by 2050, be open for renewable energy investors to provide of-grid solutions directly to the user, be environmentally friendly by cutting use of oil, gas in the country by one third, have strict environmental regulations for the process of generating electricity, help reduce 13 million tons of carbon emissions annually by 2019, and be profitable by selling energy to countries around Saudi Arabia by 2050.

· Requirements analysis

Requirements analysis is critical to the success or failure of the system. Our requirements should be documented, actionable, measurable, testable, traceable. In order to do so we in the next section we will verify and validate those requirements.

Requirements verification and validation

1) System shall relay 100% on clean energy by 2050 “the green phase”

Demonstration

In order to have a System that relies 100% on clean energy by 2050, our stakeholder the Saudi electric company has the biggest role since they are the only electricity provider and knows the grid system inside out. SEC should have a long/short term transformation plan, the transformation plan is divided into four phases. As follow:

· First phase shall have 14% of total power output from clean energy by 2019, 14% of the country needs =10,000 megawatts.

· Second phase shall have 25% of total power output from clean energy by 2021, by integrating the first phase to a power capacity of 17,500 megawatts.

· Third phase shall have 75% of total power output from clean energy by 2030, by building more renewable power plants with power capacity of 35 megawatts.

· Fourth phase (The green phase) shall have 100% of total power output from clean energy by 2050 by integrating the previous phases and building more renewable power plants with power capacity of that shall cover overcome the demand in 2050.

Inspection

· SEC should preform continuous technical inspection to the power plants through all the phases

· SEC should perform random safety inspection multiple times a year.

Testing

· Testing is a major concept that should be apply in every single phase of the project it’s a continuous process within the life cycle, starting from the requirements to design to performance for the power plants should be performed after every single phase, and should be reported to other stakeholders along with an annual performance report by SEC.

2) The system shall manage and eliminate power cuts caused by overload at 100% within 5 years.

Demonstration

By 2019 we should have our first phase operating, our first phase will cover 14% of the demand that should prevent at least 90% of the power cut, and by 2021 we should have our second phase operating which should lead to 100% prevention of power cuts.

3) The system shall decrease the oil and gas demand for generating electricity in the country as low as 2% by 2050.

Demonstration

· The clean energy plants will not use any type oil or gas since they run by renewable source of energy.

· The 2% should be used for backup power generators and portable power generators.

4) The system shall be profitable by selling energy to countries around Saudi Arabia by 2050

Demonstration

By 2050 the system shall have more capacity that can make SA sell the extra power to the neighbor countries that shares border with, where SA has the advantage of big empty lands and strong economy compare to the neighbor countries, which means the ability for more power plants.

5) The system shall promote the use of the clean energy for the users.

Demonstration

The government should provide financing option with zero interest rate to motivate the user who wants to have of-grid clean energy.

The ministry of environment, water and agriculture will have more affective campaigns about clean energy to educate the user more about it, and to show the different options of clean energy. For example, the user should know that he actually can save money by selling electricity to the grid (SEC) and make the meter run backward.

6) The system shall be open for renewable energy investors to provide off-grid solutions directly to the user.

Demonstration

The government shall open the electricity market for renewable energy providers just like the telecom and communication example we mentioned. The government also shall support renewable energy companies and provide the permits needed for them. On the other hand, SEC should welcome renewable energy providers and share expertise for the country’s good.

7) The system shall have shall have zero negative impact on the user by having fast responding safe exit

Demonstration

The Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture will provide training and awareness campaigns for the user about safety regulation and fire prevention. SEC shall work on high safety standards for distributing the electricity to the user and always have an emergency plan. The government will set strict safety rules for SEC, subject to big fines in case of violation. And SEC shall have some clear safety instruction for the users, subject to big fines in case of violation.

Inspection

· The government will perform random safety inspection on SEC.

· SEC will perform random safety inspection on their plants multiple times a year.

·

8) The system shall be environmentally friendly

Demonstration

The new system will be environmentally friendly by cutting the usage of oil, coals and natural gas. That means eliminating the burning that pollutes the air, the chemicals and the cooling water drained to the sea, and soil contamination from spills and leakages

9) The system shall help reduce 13 million tons of carbon emissions annually by 2019

Demonstration

The new system will have zero carbon emissions since it’s not using any fossil fuel.

Analysis

· The first phase will produce clean 10,000 mw which will prevent 13 million tons of carbon emissions a year.

10) The system shall have strict environmental regulations for the process of generating electricity.

Demonstration

The Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture should will have big fines applies to the user and SEC in case of the violation of the environmental regulation.

Inspection

· The Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture should perform a regular environmental inspection on SEC power plants.

· Alternative Solutions

In this section we came up with our possible alternatives based on our system requirements which are: expanding the current system by building more power stations similar to what we have, providing and promoting “Off-Grid” renewable energy solutions to the users, and using new technology called concentrated solar power (CSP). I will talk about each alternative solution and explain more about the technology of each one of them along with measures of effectiveness.

Alternative 1: More power stations (expanding the current system)

SEC is already taking this path by integrating the current power stations and building more power stations that uses (natural gas, oil and coal...etc.), but there is a major environmental issue when it comes to those kind of plants.

For example, when we talk about the coal plants which are considered the cheapest electrical power plants to build, we are talking about tremendous amount air pollution from burning coal causing smog, soot, acid rain, global warming, and toxic air emissions. Also the wastes generated by those plants such as ash, sludge, toxic chemicals, and waste heat that create more environmental problems. Coal also doesn’t pay for the carbon emissions that contribute to global warming; coal is the biggest single culprit in carbon emissions.14

Alternative 2: Renewable Energy Solutions “Off-Grid”

We mean by off-grid by renewable energy solutions is building wind and solar panels for individuals by private investors, this alternative can be achieved mostly from the user’s end. The challenging part of this alternative is that we are dealing with human system, the culture of change in Saudi Arabia has a history of resistant to any kind of change, yet it is still applicable but needs longer time.

There are different kind of renewable energy solutions that can operate in the country based on its climate and weather. Solar panels and wind turbines are the most applicable applications. Since we know that the country has a strong sun for long hours of the day that can make the solar panels work perfectly, and the wind turbine applications can be applied perfectly in the south part of the country since it has mountain climate with a great amount of wind.

But if we have a perfect condition for both systems we will definitely go for the solar options, the following table shows perfect comparison between solar and wind with the respect of maintenance, integration options, noise, predictability of the energy output the cost per Kwh.

Wind vs Solar13

	Wind Turbine	Solar Energy
Maintenance	Have a lot of moving parts that requires annual maintenance such as the gearbox.	There is very little maintenance, on an annual basis, checking connections, tighten bolts, clean the panels, etc.
Integration options	Wind turbines, at a minimum, need to be mounted 30 feet above anything within 500 feet.	Solar panels can more or less be mounted anywhere and they will produce power; as long as they are facing the sun.
More predictable energy output	Average wind speeds at a location are much more complex as there are many variables. Saudi Arabia wind speed approximately 6.0 - 8.0 (m/s)	Solar irradiance is so predictable; the inherent risk of the system is significantly lower than that of a wind turbine due to the fact that there are fewer variables.
Noise	At higher wind speeds, it’s not uncommon for small wind turbines to operate in the 90 - 100 dB range. As a reference, a lawn mower operates around 100 dB.	Solar panels are silent during operation.
Lower cost per kwh produced Annual energy output of 16,500 kwh	The gross installed cost of the system is around $55,000	The gross installed cost of the system is around $39,000

Alternative 3: New Technology (CSP) 17

Concentrated Solar Power is a system that generates solar power by using mirrors or lenses to concentrate a large area of sunlight, or solar thermal energy, onto a small area. This energy is stored in heat transfer fluids (such as synthetic oil) up to 750°F. In order to produce electricity, the heated synthetic oil is pumped into a generator, where the heat is transferred to steam. The steam drives a conventional steam turbine power system to generate electricity. This technology has been operating for an average of 5 years so far in many different countries, such as Spain, Australia, USA and Morocco.

The latest technology of CSP is called the power tower systems using molten salt for heat transfer, power tower system uses a central receiver system, which allows for higher operating temperatures and thus greater efficiencies. Also has Computer-controlled flat mirrors (called heliostats) track the sun along two axes and focus solar energy on a receiver at the top of a high tower.  The focused energy is used to heat a molten salt (over 1,000° F) to produce steam and run a central power generator.  When using molten salt as a transfer fluid and thermal energy storage medium, energy storage can be efficiently incorporated, allowing for 24-hour power generation.  Also when using salt, the energy storage has an efficiency of up to 93%. Once the salt is cooled to 290°C (still warm enough to be molten), then it returns to the tank to be reheated. 18

(CSP) power tower systems using molten salt

Cost Analysis for alternative solutions

It’s known that call typically is the cheapest alternative for countries trying to build power stations, until Dubai made this statement a myth. June 27, 2016 Dubai has announced that they would build a massive 800 megawatt (CSP) solar plant that will produce electricity at an average cost of 2.99 cents a kilowatt hour. That price of less than 3 cents a kilowatt hour is one-third cheaper than a coal plant, substantially below what even coal-fired power plants charge.3

The estimated cost for building the plant is US$13.6 billion to build (CSP) plant with a capacity of 5000 megawatts. The Saudi government spends annually US$120 billion on energy as we mentioned and about US$40 billion on electricity alone.

In order for the Saudi government to cover 14% (10,000 megawatts) of its electricity generated by (CSP) plant, which is supposed to be done by the first phase based on the system’s requirement. The government have to spend about US$27.2 billion which is about 34% of the annual electricity budget.

The price there was offered to Dubai by the developers to build this plant was the lowest price in the history of power generating and any solar plant in the world, the developers does not benefit from any obvious subsidies.

The price was 50% less comparing to the pervious lowest price for similar projects. The interesting part that the price was offered by a Saudi company called Abdul Latif Jameel, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures which is a company that Abdul Latif Jameel has a 100% acquisition of it now, and an Emirati company called Masdar. 16

In order for us to know the possible cost for each alternative when it comes to billing the user, I was able to contact one of my old colleagues from undergraduate, who now works at the Saudi Electrical Company as an electrical projects engineer to provide me with 9 months’ bill for a major public hospital (King Fahd University hospital) located in the east side of the country.

Current bills for 9 months

Bill Date	Electricity used in (KW)	Cost in US Dollars
Jan 2016	2,082,840	$177,735.68
Feb 2016	1,949,280	$167,680.00
Mar 2016	3,609,720	$308,029.44
Apr 2016	2,062,680	$176,015.36
May 2016	1,043,760	$89,067.52
Jun 2016	3,615,720	$308,541.44
Jul 2016	3,613,080	$308,316.16
Aug 2016	3,138,600	$267,827.20
Sep 2016	4,718,880	$402,677.76
Total from Jan-Sep	25,834,560	$2,205,890.56

1kw=$0.085

Looking at the table we can see that the government paid about US$2,205,890.56 for 9 month bills only for one hospital (King Fahd University hospital), the country has about 200 public hospitals. So assuming that the average bills for those 200 hospitals in 9 moths is about US$1.5 million each. When using;

the first alternative (More power stations) the user (the government) will pay

(200x1,500,000) =US$300,000,000

the second alternative (Off-Grid Solar) the user (the government) will pay

(200x0) =US$0

the third alternative (CSP) the user (the government) will pay

(200x1,500,000x0.66) $ 1,470,446.65

So the first alternative will not change anything about price of billing, where and the second alternative we have zero dollars for billing, and in the third alternative the price of billing drops down by 33.33%.

· System Architecture

OV-1 Current Operational Concept

The operational concept describes the scenario of our current system showing the main operational concepts of the operations. And it also describes the intersections between our system architecture and its environment and between the architecture and external systems.

As we can see the following operational concept we have the government as a big building and the Saudi the electrical company, the users, The Ministry of Energy Industry and Minerals and MOWE are inside it, and the external of our system is the environment. It also shows the type of activities that happens within the system, and the interactions between our stakeholders in the system.

For example, as we can see The Saudi Electrical Company has the activity of generating, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and billing. Those different activities cannot happen without interaction from the Ministry of energy to get the fuel, and the payment from the customer for the bills in order to distribute electricity.

OV-2 Operational Node connectivity (Current System)

The operational node connectivity shows the operational nodes, activities performed at each node, and connectivites and information flow between nodes. The following model shows how the stakeholders in our systems is connected and on each arrow is the number that will tell us about the kind of information that has been exchanged, based on that arrow direction. The use of this model make our system more logical because it describes who or what not how.

OV-3 Operational information exchange matrix (Current System)

The Operational information exchange matrix is a model that is created from the information contained in previous model (OV-2). So if we look at the model below we can see what kind of information that has been exchanged from the source for the distillation.

Let’s say for example need line number 002, we have the source which is the Saudi Electric Company and a destination which is the user, and then the type of information which is the power (electricity).

OV-1 Future Operational Concept

Here we can see future proposed operational concept model below after applying the second and the third alternative. Our external system (the environment) is not affected by any emissions. Also since our source of energy is the sun and we’re not using any fuel so don’t have to deal with The Ministry of Energy Industry and Minerals anymore. We also can see renewable energy companies within our system sharing the delivery of energy to the users.

OV-2 Operational Node connectivity

The future operational node connectivity shows different kind of information exchanged between the need lines also it has different sources and destinations. For instant, he future map shows how the Ministry of environment, water and agriculture has more to offer than the current OV-2 with two need lines and directed to the user and to the Saudi electrical company.

OV-3 Operational information exchange matrix (Future System)

Our future operational information exchange matrix shows the information that has been exchanged and we can see the difference of information comparing to the current OV-3, for example the type of energy source used to produce electricity in needline#008 from the current system shows that SEC receives oil and gas from the ministry of industry and minerals, where in our future OV-3 it shows at need line #007 SEC receives Solar energy from the sun.

· Systems Thinking

(Systems Thinking is a critical leadership skill. Some people can think globally while acting locally. Such people consider the potential consequences of their decisions on other parts of larger systems) - P. Checkland, Wiley, 1999

System thinking is a way of thinking or reasoning and problem-solving, it starts from the identification of “the system” for a given problem, recognition of system properties, and the system interface onto other related systems.23 In the following table we will identify and characterize our system.

System Identification/Characterization

What is in the system?	The Saudi Government. Saudi Electricity Company “SEC”. the Ministry of Energy Industry and Minerals Saudi, the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture.
What is outside of your system?	Electricity users The environment
What are the internal processes?	Billing, power generation, national awareness campaigns, Environmental rules, regulations and legislation.
What are the products?	Electricity
Who is the customer for the system?	The government, Saudi Electricity Company “SEC” and the electricity users.
Who is the supplier for the system?	The SEC
What is the next bigger entity containing your system?	The government
How does the system satisfy a mission or capability need?	By investing aggressively in concentrated solar power plants.

Systems Thinking Conceptual Model

A conceptual model for systems thinking leadership is proposed in which the three processes, characterized as discovery, framing, and action, can be enacted either individually or sequentially for enhancing organizational performance.

The model draws upon boundary critique, critical systems thinking, systemic intervention, total systems intervention, systems dynamics, soft systems methodology, complexity theory and complex adaptive systems, yet uses language more readily identifiable to community college practitioners.

Conceptual model shows the stakeholders for the whole system and four hours subsystems

· Risk Management

We are going to apply risk management so we can identify any potential problems before they occur, so we start by determining the risk sources categories across the life of our project, then we identify the risks and evaluate them, and after that we develop a mitigation plan to mitigate the possible risk impacting our project.

The first risk that I believe is a common risk in every single kind of project, is the project delivery on time (meeting the deadlines), based on my experience working as a project engineer in Saudi Arabia at Schneider Electric, there is a huge number projects that passed their deadlines or left unfinished. So, to prevent such thing on our project the government should get involved from the early stages of the project (during the planning process) with all stakeholder. The stakeholders should have a clear project scope with sign-off from everyone on the project statement. The stakeholders should also put a lot of time on setting priorities. Every stakeholder should set up calendar reminders for milestones that is accessible for the other stakeholders. Stakeholders should hold the regular status meeting with each other and within their subsystems, and setting up reminders to ensure everyone attends.

Lack of funding is a major risk that could lead to incompletion of our project, so the big question here is who is going to provide us with the funding and will he give us more if we need? In our case our funder is the government, so in order to get the government to provide us with the funding we should make sure that our project goes with the government vision, luckily earlier this year 2016 the former vice president prince Mohammed bin Salmen announced in a statement that the government is going for the renewable energy, and it would support projects that are made us rely less on oil. The prince believes that by 2030 we will barely rely oil, he called it (2030 vision). I also believe that with a clear cost analysis showing the return of investment will make the government agree provide the funding.

The concentrated solar power is considered a new technology, especially to the Saudi Electrical Company, since the generation power plants run by SEC are all traditional oil and natural gas power plants. It might be kind of challenging to introduce completely new technology to a very large company that has been running on the same technology for about 82 years now. Acquisition and merging of companies that uses the new technology is always great idea, because it will provide great information sharing between employees, so we are kind of training SEC indirectly. We also still must provide Full training on the new technology.

Getting project approvals from the government’s agencies and ministries could be a deal breaker for the project delivery time. Based on my experience as a project engineer sometimes it would take us two weeks to a month to get one paper of approval signed, causing a delay on the project delivery. But when we had all stakeholders in one room in the regular paces (stakeholders meetings), scheduled our approvals to be ready and signed in advance and by assigning some people to get the paperwork and the approvals done. We sure have no problem at all with our approvals.

The user may not be very welcoming to the idea of installing new system (off-grid system), because of the lack of education on renewable energy and the culture of adopting to new changes by Saudis. So, the Ministry of environment, water and agriculture should provide some effective campaigns that works, promoting the new technology, and educating people about their off-grid system options with the facts that motivate them to switch over, such as the ability to sell electricity back to the grid SEC. The government also promote for off-grid system installation by offering loans for the cost of installation with 0% interest rate.

The Saudi Electric company might feel threatened by the fact that they will share the business with different investors and lose the monopoly of the electricity, which means less money and high competition. But when we look back at the example that we provide earlier about the communication and telecom company and how they made more based on their stock market. Also, that should motivate the SEC to invests (acquire and merge) with other companies and intensive training seeking high quality.

The concentrated solar power plants are effecting the wildlife. The insects are attracted by to the bright light caused by concentrated solar technology, and birds that hunt them can be killed (burned) flying near the point where light is being focused. This kill raptors too when hunting other birds. Federal wildlife officials called those (CSP) plants “mega traps" for wildlife. In over six months, 133 singed birds were counted dead at Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project. Until there has been a change on the system by focusing no more than four mirrors on any one place in the air during standby, so in three months, the death rate dropped to zero. 18

In the following table, we summarized our system’s risks and described them, the table also shows measurement of the impact of the risk and the likelihood in a range from 1 to 5 where 1 is a very low impact and likelihood and 5 is very high. Based on our risk impact and likelihood we categorize our risk as high (red), medium (yellow) or low(green). Finally, the table shows the type of response that we must apply to mitigate the risk.

The below charts are called risk reporting matrix, this chart on the left is showing where our risks standing reported from the previous table without any response to those risks (before mitigation), where the chart on right shows our risks after responding to them (after mitigation).

· Lean

Lean is simply creating value with no waste, and in order to do so, we must understand the type of wastes affecting our main value to eliminate that waste. By applying the 6 lean principles, we will be able drive our system with no waste. I will emphasize some of those principles on our project

1. Specify value:

Value is defined by customer in terms of specific products. Capture the sense of value perfectly. Value handshake: Is the value for both sides the customer (the user) and the provider (the electricity provider). Where the value for the user is the low-cost (cheaper bills), high-quality (no power outages), availability/short delivery (availability for the high) demand, and nicely serviced. The value for the provider is profit, repeat business, and growth.

Northrop-Grumman

2. Make value flow continuously

The electricity provider should make sure that the service run continuously without backflow, stoppages.

3. Pursue perfection.

For us to pursue perfection we must make the imperfections visible in the entire process for our internal and external customers (stakeholders and the sub-systems for each stakeholder, and the users), it must be visible to correct due to the simple system, and getting the internal customers to meet regularly.

Our perfection is about covering the need of electricity for the customer “the user” and prevent the power outage by100%

In case of any complaints or major issues we should have a customer satisfaction department to get the feedback and fix the issue.

Our system should have the employees rewarded for their (Kaizen). Workers attempt to not care that much about Kaizen, since sometimes (Kaizen means I must work more) to them or (why would I do it I'm getting the same salary?) so when they get reward for Kaizen can be an effective way from continuous improvement.

4. Respect People.

Respect for people is one of the two major pillars of lean thinking after Continuous Improvement. It promotes the best human relations at work based on respect for people. It calls for a vision which throws and inspires the best people and it promotes a learning environment.21,22 So, when applying lean while switching to the new system, it should not leads to layoffs and firings.

In lean, there’s something we call (Selling Monuments) where we can sell the old system. Last year Saudi Arabia paid a financial support of US$21 billion its neighbors and countries in need. So, why not give it the old system instead of money for country those country.

Before applying lean to anything we must understand that the lean is a culture, it's more than some principles that must be memorized or hanged on the wall. We must know that lean starts from the big management going down to the workers, because the workers can not be lean unless they have lean management. 

· Ethical Issues

· Utilitarianism:

Utilitarianism is Right action consists in producing the most good for the most people, giving equal consideration to everyone affected. So, it is “The most good” and “The least harm”. Our system should have a concept of utilitarianism in its mission.

· Conflicts of interest:

Conflicts of interest in where some situations where professional or other employees have an interest that if pursued, might keep them from meeting their obligations to their employers or clients. Such as monopolizing the Electricity by SEC or resisting the change to the new system since profitable enough for me and changing it will not add any extra personal value.

· Environmental ethics:

Environmental ethics is the study of moral issues concerning the environment, and a moral perspective, belief, or attitude concerning these issues. Our current system is hurting the environment badly and causing climate changing. That’s why in our requirements we have to change the situation to clean energy.

There is very interesting documentary called (Before the flood) done by National Geography released this year November 2016, the documentary involves scientists, activists and world leaders, talking about our attitude toward the environment and discuss the danger of climate change and possible solutions. Dr. Piers Sellers an astronaut and the director of earth sciences division at NASA, have done a great model simulation showing the future effects of on our plants from our current way dealing with the environment. See the following link

Before the flood. Dr. Piers Sellers “Astronaut” (Director, Earth sciences Division, NASA/GSFC)

In our system, the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture should take an action in this regard and should do more than just awareness campaigns. It should set a very strict environmentally regulations and rules for power generation. The government should work with the ministry to make it effective.

· Tragedy of the commons:

The ways in which the marketplace harms public goods (such as clean air and water) by creating unintended “externalities,” that is, harmful effects such as pollution that are not factored into the cost of products. Unfortunately, our current system is harming the public goods by polluting our order, the air that we breathe, and the food that we eat.

· Safe exits:

Safe exits mean that we have to design procedures in our system to ensure that if a our system fails it will fail safely and the user can safely escape the failures. So the system must have a clear safe exits for all situations from generating powers to distributing to the user and for our system to do that we should have high safety standards, training for the employees, education for the users, backup solutions.

· Lessons Learned and Conclusion

· CSP is the new promising technology so we should take the initiative of using it, promoting it, and improve it.

· Can we do it? can we achieve 100% of reliance on clean energy? Yes and it has been done before by Costa Rica, see the following link “ Costa Rica has been running on 100% renewable energy for 2 months straight” 2016

· “Ethics” is a major factor affecting the current situation, so we must take this under consideration as a major factor in our system.

· “Systems thinking” We have a soft system (common good and culture of change) and it is more challenging than the engineering or the technical part of the system.

· “Environment” A carbon tax should be applied from the government on the users and SEC.

· (National security) the government is having some conflicts on the south and the north of the country which leads to a threat for its infrastructures (power generation plants). So, having an off-grid system for the sensitive buildings (hospitals, ministries, and governmental buildings) in the country will be a very good alternative, this also should prevent hacking through the grid system

· References

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2) Climate of the world: Saudi-Arabia. (1999). Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/climate/Saudi-Arabia.htm

3) Saudi electricity company. (2016). Retrieved November 9, 2016, from https:// www.se.com.sa/en-us/invshareholder/Pages/BackgroundOnBusinessSegment.asp

4) قائمة بمحطات توليد الطاقة في السعودية (2016). . In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%85%D8%A9_%D8%A8%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%AA_%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AF_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A9_%D9%81%D9%8A_% D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9

5) mohammedgamal. (2013, May 19). بالصور .. إنفجار في محطة توليد القرية للكهرباء - صحيفة الأحساء الآن. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from أخبار الأحساء, http:// now.ahsaweb.net/67480

6) مساءً00, التعليقات, *الاسمالمستعار, *كلمةالمرور, المستعارسجلاسمك, *إسمالعرض, … s, var. (2015, January 13). انقطاع الكهرباء عن بعض أحياء منطقتي الرياض والشرقية بسبب خروج 2200 ميجاوات من محطة التوليد بالجبيل. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.ajel.sa/local/114743

7) انقطاع الكهرباء عن مستشفى خاص يربك مستشفيات الرياض. (2009). Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.alriyadh.com/543996

8) حجة: وفاة 7 بينهم 5 مواليد ومؤسسة المياه تغلق أبوابها جراء انقطاع الكهرباء. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.almashhad-alyemeni.com/news38402.html

9) ميرفت. انقطاع التيار الكهربائي يكبد مصانع جدة خسائر 500 مليون ريال خلال شهر. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.sauress.com/alhayat/33211

10) اليومصحيفة. (1435). اليوم: 450 مليار ريال تكلفة الدعم السنوى للطاقة بالمملكة. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.alyaum.com/article/4011467

11) natgas. (2013, September 20). Natural gas and the environment NaturalGas.Org. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http://naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas /

12) Hasoony. (2013, January 14). Pollution in saudi arabia. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// esslerosey.blogspot.com/2013/01/pollution-in-saudi-arabia.html

13) Anderson, T. (2016). Solar vs wind 1. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.iowawindandsolar.com/solar-vs-wind.html

14) Reichmuth, D. (2016, November 8). Coal generates 44% of our electricity, and is the single biggest air polluter in the U.S. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/coalvswind/c01.html#. WCK_JeErLVp

15) Clifford, M. L. (2016, June 29). Watch out, coal! Dubai announces plans for world’s lowest cost solar plant. Forbes. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/mclifford/2016/06/29/cheaper-than-coal-dubai-to-build-worlds-lowest-cost-solar-plant/# 7adcbef82a34

16) أرقام. (2016, May 2). تحالف تقوده “عبداللطيف جميل” يقدم أفضل عرض لتنفيذ المرحلة الثالثة من مشروع للطاقة الشمسية بدبي. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from http:// www.argaam.com/ar/article/articledetail/id/424471

17) Science, S. (2011, March 19). Zero carbon Australia: We can do it. Retrieved November 9, 2016, from https:// www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=647

18) Concentrated solar power (2016). . In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_solar_power

19) Rechtin, E., & Rechtin, E. (1990). Systems architecting: Creating and building complex systems. United States: Prentice Hall PTR.

20) Womack, J. P., & Jones, D. T. (1996). Lean thinking: Banish waste and create wealth in your corporation. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster.

21) The Toyota way: 14 management principles from the world’s greatest manufacturer (2003). . United States: McGraw-Hill Education.

22) Applications, M. Video. Retrieved November 19, 2016, from http://www.greenfacts.org/en/pcbs

23) Checkland, P., & Checkl, P. B. (1981). Systems thinking, systems practice. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Saudi Electricity Company

Saudi Electricity Company

The Goernment Saudi Oil Company Private Investors 74.3 6.9 18.8

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