FOR ZEEK THE GEEK

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Dr. Roger Selbert, Editor & Publisher E-mail: [email protected]

L A JOL L A I NSTITU TE Steve PonTell

Tell me if this sounds familiar:

Small businesses are an important and growing driver of US economic growth and dynamism. They employ over half of America’s private sector workers, produce over half of America’s non-farm private GDP, and create roughly 75% of new private sector jobs. The next decade will see the growth of small business continue, and the social and economic impacts of small business increase.

It should sound familiar because it has been true for at least a quarter century, and we have been writing about the phenomena over that time. But it is still quite true: small businesses remain important and growing drivers of the American economy, and will continue to be so into the future.

The paragraph quoted above is actually from the Intuit Future of Small Business Report, a research project released last year in conjunction with the Institute for the Future. Here’s a sum- mary of findings:

Demographic TrenDs anD small Business

The changing Face of small Business entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs will no longer come predomi- ■ nantly from the middle of the age spectrum; people nearing retirement and their children just entering the job market will become the most entrepreneurial generations ever.

Entrepreneurship will reflect an upswing in ■ the number of women.

Immigrant entrepreneurs will help drive a new ■ wave of globalization.

The rise of personal Businesses

Contract workers and accidental and social ■ entrepreneurs will fuel a proliferation of personal businesses.

The emergence of entrepreneurial education

Entrepreneurship will be a widely adopted ■ curriculum at educational, trade, and voca- tional institutions.

Technology TrenDs anD small Business

The connected World: small Business management on my Time, on my Terms

Small businesses will use intelligent devices to ■ gain customer insight and improve delivery of goods and services.

Mobile devices will become central to ■ business management.

A new wave of analytical tools will increase ■ small business productivity and ease manage- ment burdens.

Beyond Web 2.0: Technology Fuels small Business Formation, operations, and innovation

High-tech will no longer be a high hurdle as ■ costs and complexity fall.

Small business relationships will become ■

Trend Analysis That Builds Business Decisions

i n T h i s i s s u e :

no. 1012 page 1 april 2008

1 – T h e F u T u r e o F s m a l l B u s i n e s s 2 – T h e F u T u r e o F m e D i a

1 – T h e F u T u r e o F s m a l l B u s i n e s s

Growth Strategies Group is a consulting firm which uses trend research to assist organizations i n r e s p o n d i n g t o o u t s i d e c h a l l e n g e s , m a p p i n g strategies, and pursuing their visions for future growth.

increasingly virtual as online social networks expand.

Virtual worlds will be widely adopted venues ■ for reaching customers and experimenting with new product ideas and business models.

small Business marketing: The mindset shifts from push to pull

A small business’s online presence will ■ be the most important factor in customer acquisition.

Small businesses will increasingly market ■ themselves through the connected world of cars and cell phones.

The neW arTisan economy

Barbell economics: Brain meets Brawn to create opportunities for small Business

Small businesses will be better positioned ■ than large corporations to provide custom- ers with highly targeted, customized, and relevant products.

Outsourced innovation from big businesses ■ will increase opportunities for small business.

lightweight Business infrastructure: Barriers Down, small Business opportunities up

Small businesses will reclaim manufacturing, ■ fueling small-scale and specialized production.

Plug-and-play infrastructure will make small ■ businesses more competitive and successful.

The shift to variable cost structures for core ■ business operations will reduce risk and increase opportunities for small businesses.

Borderless Business: small Businesses Will Drive the next Wave of globalization

Almost half of US small businesses will be ■ involved in global trade by 2018.

Social networks will fuel borderless commerce. ■

Globalization will increase small business ■ diversity and amplify economic value.

For the complete report go to http://www.intuit. com/futureofsmallbusiness

Trend Analysis That Builds Business Decisions

no. 1012 page 2 april 2008

2 – T h e F u T u r e o F m e D i a

hoW generaTions use meDia

Deloitte’s State of the Media Democracy Survey (Second Edition, 2008) sheds light on how dif- ferent generations (Millenials, Generation X, Boomers, Matures) are consuming media. Some highlights:

TV content has the opportunity to dominate ■ the future, but will not necessarily be viewed on TV sets.

36% of consumers use their cell phone as an ■ entertainment device.

Gaming is ubiquitous: 62% of males, and 56% ■ of all Americans, state that videogames, PC games and Internet games have become an important entertainment source to them.

All consumers rate TV advertising as hav- ■ ing the most impact on their buying deci- sions – online advertising is tied for #2 with magazines.

Traditional advertising is an important driver of ■ web site traffic – but the dominance of “some- one’s recommendation” presents extraordinary potential for social networks as an ad platform.

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