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The Ukrainian Crisis

Mie Hee Christensen

Introduction

Since the Maidan protest and the ousting of president Yanukovych in 2014, Ukraine has experienced conflict and an ongoing civil war in the eastern part of the country. The internal division of the country has become an issue involving international actors, particularly Russia on one side and the European Union and the US on the other. Though the Ukrainian crisis has somewhat drifted out of the attention of international media, tension in the region still very much exist, most recently seen in August were Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to carry out ”acts of terrorism” in Crimea and in September where Russia staged the “Kavkaz 2016” – military drills on land, air and sea involving 12,000 soldiers.

Background

In November 2013 President Viktor Yanukovych and his cabinet abandoned preparations for a trade agreement with the European Union – an agreement that would bring Ukraine closer to the EU. It is believed that Yanukovych had been under pressure from Russia, who welcomed the decision and hoped Ukraine instead would foster closer relations with Russia.

This decision lead to protest in the capital Kiev. In early December 2014 800,000 people gathered in the Maidan Square (Independence Square) in Kiev.

President Putin tried to help Yanukovych out economically by buying 15 bn.$ Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas by a third. But this didn’t appease the protesters.

Background continued

The protest continued and spread to western part of Ukraine where regional government offices were stormed. The Maidan Square turned into a war zone with clashes between the protesters and the military. February 20 became the most violent day in almost 70 years. 88 people were killed.

In late February President Yanukovych signed compromise deal with opposition leaders, then fled to Russia. Parliament set elections for 25 May where the pro-European Petro Poroshenko was elected president.

Background continued

In late February 2014 conflict erupted in Crimea, a peninsula with the largest population of ethnic Russians in Ukraine. In March 97 % of the Crimean population voted to join Russia, but the referendum was not internationally recognized. On March 18 2014 the Russian Federation annexed Crimea.

Pro-Russian protest started in the eastern part of Ukraine. This marked the beginning of the conflict in Donbass – an area consisting of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where the fight between separatists and the Ukrainian government still goes on today.

Background – ethnicity and linguistics

The crisis in Ukraine aggravated the issues of internal diversion, which has always been played a big role since the country’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Western Ukraine is mostly Ukrainian speaking and is more oriented towards the EU.

Eastern and Southern Ukraine are primarily Russian speaking and feel stronger ties with Russia.

From this, it is clear that Ukraine is not a homogeneous nation state, but contains several nations.

Key issues and debates

In the eyes of the EU and the US, Russia’s involvement in the conflict have been viewed as part of an aggressive foreign policy adopted by the Putin administration. Besides annexing Crimea, Russia has supported the separatists in Donbass and Putin have used the historical term ”Novorossiya” (“New Russia”) referring to an area of Eastern and Southern Ukraine as a part of Russia.

These action can and have been viewed as irredentism – an attempt to absorb ethnic Russians and Russian speaking provinces back into Russia.

Key issues and debates

Other debates have revolved around the threat to Ukraine as a state. With Russia and the European Union pulling from each side, analysts fear that Ukraine might separate along ethno-linguistic lines. Predictions have also been made that Ukraine will end as a failed state if the country doesn’t open up to Russian investment again.

Discussion

Should the European Union (and the rest of the Western world) continue it’s support to and strengthen the ties to Ukraine in order to oppose Russia and its expansionist foreign policy? Why?

Faced with the risk of a failed Ukrainian state or secessions, what role should the EU and the West play in the further development of Ukraine?