Monetary Economics problems

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Fair Model

Election year vote share Party Person Duration War Growth Inflation Goodnews
1916 51.682 1 1 0 0 2.229 4.252 3
1920 36.148 1 0 1 1 -11.463 0 0
1924 41.737 -1 -1 0 0 3.872 -5.161 -10
1928 41.244 -1 0 -1 0 -4.623 -0.183 -7
1932 59.149 -1 -1 -1.25 0 14.586 -7.164 -4
1936 62.226 1 1 0 0 11.836 2.475 9
1940 54.983 1 1 1 0 3.901 0.081 8
1944 53.778 1 1 1.25 1 4.233 0 0
1948 52.319 1 1 1.5 1 3.638 0 0
1952 44.71 1 0 1.75 0 0.726 2.349 7
1956 42.906 -1 -1 0 0 1.451 -1.897 -5
1960 50.087 -1 0 -1 0 -0.455 -1.938 -5
1964 61.203 1 1 0 0 5.087 1.269 10
1968 49.425 1 0 1 0 5.049 3.13 7
1972 38.209 -1 -1 0 0 -5.949 -4.795 -4
1976 51.049 -1 0 -1 0 -3.806 -7.632 -5
1980 44.842 1 1 0 0 -3.659 7.864 5
1984 40.877 -1 -1 0 0 -5.424 -5.249 -8
1988 46.168 -1 0 -1 0 -2.21 -2.955 -4
1992 53.621 -1 -1 -1.25 0 -2.949 -3.31 -2
1996 54.737 1 1 0 0 3.258 2.027 4
2000 50.262 1 0 1 0 2.014 1.641 7
2004 48.767 -1 -1 0 0 -1.989 -2.245 -1
2008 53.689 -1 0 -1 0 2.26 -3.052 -1
2012 52 1 1 0 0 1.01 1.58 1
2016 1 0 1 0 0.94 1.4 2

PBCc

real GDP growth 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
1949 -0.5 0 0 0
1950 8.7 1 0 0
1951 8.1 0 1 0
1952 4.1 0 0 1
1953 4.7 0 0 0
1954 -0.6 1 0 0
1955 7.1 0 1 0
1956 2.1 0 0 1
1957 2.1 0 0 0
1958 -0.7 1 0 0
1959 6.9 0 1 0
1960 2.6 0 0 1
1961 2.6 0 0 0
1962 6.1 1 0 0
1963 4.4 0 1 0
1964 5.8 0 0 1
1965 6.5 0 0 0
1966 6.6 1 0 0
1967 2.7 0 1 0
1968 4.9 0 0 1
1969 3.1 0 0 0
1970 0.2 1 0 0
1971 3.3 0 1 0
1972 5.2 0 0 1
1973 5.6 0 0 0
1974 -0.5 1 0 0
1975 -0.2 0 1 0
1976 5.4 0 0 1
1977 4.6 0 0 0
1978 5.6 1 0 0
1979 3.2 0 1 0
1980 -0.2 0 0 1
1981 2.6 0 0 0
1982 -1.9 1 0 0
1983 4.6 0 1 0
1984 7.3 0 0 1
1985 4.2 0 0 0
1986 3.5 1 0 0
1987 3.5 0 1 0
1988 4.2 0 0 1
1989 3.7 0 0 0
1990 1.9 1 0 0
1991 -0.1 0 1 0
1992 3.6 0 0 1
1993 2.7 0 0 0
1994 4 1 0 0
1995 2.7 0 1 0
1996 3.8 0 0 1
1997 4.5 0 0 0
1998 4.5 1 0 0
1999 4.7 0 1 0
2000 4.1 0 0 1
2001 1 0 0 0
2002 1.8 1 0 0
2003 2.8 0 1 0
2004 3.8 0 0 1
2005 3.3 0 0 0
2006 2.7 1 0 0
2007 1.8 0 1 0
2008 -0.3 0 0 1
2009 -2.8 0 0 0
2010 2.5 1 0 0
2011 1.6 0 1 0
2012 2.2 0 0 1
2013 1.7 0 0 0
2014 2.4 1 0 0
2015 2.6 0 1 0

PCBd

inflation(t) inflation(t-1) Dummy:2nd year Dummy:3rd year Dummy:4th year
1949 -1.2 8.1 0 0 0
1950 1.3 -1.2 1 0 0
1951 7.9 1.3 0 1 0
1952 1.9 7.9 0 0 1
1953 0.8 1.9 0 0 0
1954 0.7 0.8 1 0 0
1955 -0.4 0.7 0 1 0
1956 1.5 -0.4 0 0 1
1957 3.3 1.5 0 0 0
1958 2.8 3.3 1 0 0
1959 0.7 2.8 0 1 0
1960 1.7 0.7 0 0 1
1961 1 1.7 0 0 0
1962 1 1 1 0 0
1963 1.3 1 0 1 0
1964 1.3 1.3 0 0 1
1965 1.6 1.3 0 0 0
1966 2.9 1.6 1 0 0
1967 3.1 2.9 0 1 0
1968 4.2 3.1 0 0 1
1969 5.5 4.2 0 0 0
1970 5.7 5.5 1 0 0
1971 4.4 5.7 0 1 0
1972 3.2 4.4 0 0 1
1973 6.2 3.2 0 0 0
1974 11 6.2 1 0 0
1975 9.1 11 0 1 0
1976 5.8 9.1 0 0 1
1977 6.5 5.8 0 0 0
1978 7.6 6.5 1 0 0
1979 11.3 7.6 0 1 0
1980 13.5 11.3 0 0 1
1981 10.3 13.5 0 0 0
1982 6.2 10.3 1 0 0
1983 3.2 6.2 0 1 0
1984 4.3 3.2 0 0 1
1985 3.6 4.3 0 0 0
1986 1.9 3.6 1 0 0
1987 3.6 1.9 0 1 0
1988 4.1 3.6 0 0 1
1989 4.8 4.1 0 0 0
1990 5.4 4.8 1 0 0
1991 4.2 5.4 0 1 0
1992 3 4.2 0 0 1
1993 3 3 0 0 0
1994 2.6 3 1 0 0
1995 2.8 2.6 0 1 0
1996 3 2.8 0 0 1
1997 2.3 3 0 0 0
1998 1.6 2.3 1 0 0
1999 2.2 1.6 0 1 0
2000 3.4 2.2 0 0 1
2001 2.8 3.4 0 0 0
2002 1.6 2.8 1 0 0
2003 2.3 1.6 0 1 0
2004 2.7 2.3 0 0 1
2005 3.4 2.7 0 0 0
2006 3.2 3.4 1 0 0
2007 2.8 3.2 0 1 0
2008 3.8 2.8 0 0 1
2009 -0.4 3.8 0 0 0
2010 1.6 -0.4 1 0 0
2011 3.2 1.6 0 1 0
2012 2.1 3.2 0 0 1
2013 1.5 2.1 0 0 0
2014 1.6 1.5 1 0 0
2015 0.1 1.6 0 1 0

Parti_a

real GDP growth Republican
1949 -0.5 0
1950 8.7 0
1951 8.1 0
1952 4.1 0
1953 4.7 1
1954 -0.6 1
1955 7.1 1
1956 2.1 1
1957 2.1 1
1958 -0.7 1
1959 6.9 1
1960 2.6 1
1961 2.6 0
1962 6.1 0
1963 4.4 0
1964 5.8 0
1965 6.5 0
1966 6.6 0
1967 2.7 0
1968 4.9 0
1969 3.1 1
1970 0.2 1
1971 3.3 1
1972 5.2 1
1973 5.6 1
1974 -0.5 1
1975 -0.2 1
1976 5.4 1
1977 4.6 0
1978 5.6 0
1979 3.2 0
1980 -0.2 0
1981 2.6 1
1982 -1.9 1
1983 4.6 1
1984 7.3 1
1985 4.2 1
1986 3.5 1
1987 3.5 1
1988 4.2 1
1989 3.7 1
1990 1.9 1
1991 -0.1 1
1992 3.6 1
1993 2.7 0
1994 4 0
1995 2.7 0
1996 3.8 0
1997 4.5 0
1998 4.5 0
1999 4.7 0
2000 4.1 0
2001 1 1
2002 1.8 1
2003 2.8 1
2004 3.8 1
2005 3.3 1
2006 2.7 1
2007 1.8 1
2008 -0.3 1
2009 -2.8 0
2010 2.5 0
2011 1.6 0
2012 2.2 0
2013 1.7 0
2014 2.4 0
2015 2.6 0

Parti_b

inflation (GDP deflator) lagged inflation Republican
1949 -1.2 8.1 0
1950 1.3 -1.2 0
1951 7.9 1.3 0
1952 1.9 7.9 0
1953 0.8 1.9 1
1954 0.7 0.8 1
1955 -0.4 0.7 1
1956 1.5 -0.4 1
1957 3.3 1.5 1
1958 2.8 3.3 1
1959 0.7 2.8 1
1960 1.7 0.7 1
1961 1 1.7 0
1962 1 1 0
1963 1.3 1 0
1964 1.3 1.3 0
1965 1.6 1.3 0
1966 2.9 1.6 0
1967 3.1 2.9 0
1968 4.2 3.1 0
1969 5.5 4.2 1
1970 5.7 5.5 1
1971 4.4 5.7 1
1972 3.2 4.4 1
1973 6.2 3.2 1
1974 11 6.2 1
1975 9.1 11 1
1976 5.8 9.1 1
1977 6.5 5.8 0
1978 7.6 6.5 0
1979 11.3 7.6 0
1980 13.5 11.3 0
1981 10.3 13.5 1
1982 6.2 10.3 1
1983 3.2 6.2 1
1984 4.3 3.2 1
1985 3.6 4.3 1
1986 1.9 3.6 1
1987 3.6 1.9 1
1988 4.1 3.6 1
1989 4.8 4.1 1
1990 5.4 4.8 1
1991 4.2 5.4 1
1992 3 4.2 1
1993 3 3 0
1994 2.6 3 0
1995 2.8 2.6 0
1996 3 2.8 0
1997 2.3 3 0
1998 1.6 2.3 0
1999 2.2 1.6 0
2000 3.4 2.2 0
2001 2.8 3.4 1
2002 1.6 2.8 1
2003 2.3 1.6 1
2004 2.7 2.3 1
2005 3.4 2.7 1
2006 3.2 3.4 1
2007 2.8 3.2 1
2008 3.8 2.8 1
2009 -0.4 3.8 0
2010 1.6 -0.4 0
2011 3.2 1.6 0
2012 2.1 3.2 0
2013 1.5 2.1 0
2014 1.6 1.5 0
2015 0.1 1.6 0

Parti_d

real GDP growth Dem - 2nd 2 yrs Rep - 1st 2 yrs Rep - 2nd 2 yrs
1949 -0.5 0 0 0
1950 8.7 0 0 0
1951 8.1 1 0 0
1952 4.1 1 0 0
1953 4.7 0 1 0
1954 -0.6 0 1 0
1955 7.1 0 0 1
1956 2.1 0 0 1
1957 2.1 0 1 0
1958 -0.7 0 1 0
1959 6.9 0 0 1
1960 2.6 0 0 1
1961 2.6 0 0 0
1962 6.1 0 0 0
1963 4.4 1 0 0
1964 5.8 1 0 0
1965 6.5 0 0 0
1966 6.6 0 0 0
1967 2.7 1 0 0
1968 4.9 1 0 0
1969 3.1 0 1 0
1970 0.2 0 1 0
1971 3.3 0 0 1
1972 5.2 0 0 1
1973 5.6 0 1 0
1974 -0.5 0 1 0
1975 -0.2 0 0 1
1976 5.4 0 0 1
1977 4.6 0 0 0
1978 5.6 0 0 0
1979 3.2 1 0 0
1980 -0.2 1 0 0
1981 2.6 0 1 0
1982 -1.9 0 1 0
1983 4.6 0 0 1
1984 7.3 0 0 1
1985 4.2 0 1 0
1986 3.5 0 1 0
1987 3.5 0 0 1
1988 4.2 0 0 1
1989 3.7 0 1 0
1990 1.9 0 1 0
1991 -0.1 0 0 1
1992 3.6 0 0 1
1993 2.7 0 0 0
1994 4 0 0 0
1995 2.7 1 0 0
1996 3.8 1 0 0
1997 4.5 0 0 0
1998 4.5 0 0 0
1999 4.7 1 0 0
2000 4.1 1 0 0
2001 1 0 1 0
2002 1.8 0 1 0
2003 2.8 0 0 1
2004 3.8 0 0 1
2005 3.3 0 1 0
2006 2.7 0 1 0
2007 1.8 0 0 1
2008 -0.3 0 0 1
2009 -2.8 0 0 0
2010 2.5 0 0 0
2011 1.6 1 0 0
2012 2.2 1 0 0
2013 1.7 0 0 0
2014 2.4 0 0 0
2015 2.6 1 0 0

Parti_e

inflation (GDP deflator) lagged inflation Dem - 2nd 2 yrs Rep - 1st 2 yrs Rep - 2nd 2 yrs
1949 -1.2 8.1 0 0 0
1950 1.3 -1.2 0 0 0
1951 7.9 1.3 1 0 0
1952 1.9 7.9 1 0 0
1953 0.8 1.9 0 1 0
1954 0.7 0.8 0 1 0
1955 -0.4 0.7 0 0 1
1956 1.5 -0.4 0 0 1
1957 3.3 1.5 0 1 0
1958 2.8 3.3 0 1 0
1959 0.7 2.8 0 0 1
1960 1.7 0.7 0 0 1
1961 1 1.7 0 0 0
1962 1 1 0 0 0
1963 1.3 1 1 0 0
1964 1.3 1.3 1 0 0
1965 1.6 1.3 0 0 0
1966 2.9 1.6 0 0 0
1967 3.1 2.9 1 0 0
1968 4.2 3.1 1 0 0
1969 5.5 4.2 0 1 0
1970 5.7 5.5 0 1 0
1971 4.4 5.7 0 0 1
1972 3.2 4.4 0 0 1
1973 6.2 3.2 0 1 0
1974 11 6.2 0 1 0
1975 9.1 11 0 0 1
1976 5.8 9.1 0 0 1
1977 6.5 5.8 0 0 0
1978 7.6 6.5 0 0 0
1979 11.3 7.6 1 0 0
1980 13.5 11.3 1 0 0
1981 10.3 13.5 0 1 0
1982 6.2 10.3 0 1 0
1983 3.2 6.2 0 0 1
1984 4.3 3.2 0 0 1
1985 3.6 4.3 0 1 0
1986 1.9 3.6 0 1 0
1987 3.6 1.9 0 0 1
1988 4.1 3.6 0 0 1
1989 4.8 4.1 0 1 0
1990 5.4 4.8 0 1 0
1991 4.2 5.4 0 0 1
1992 3 4.2 0 0 1
1993 3 3 0 0 0
1994 2.6 3 0 0 0
1995 2.8 2.6 1 0 0
1996 3 2.8 1 0 0
1997 2.3 3 0 0 0
1998 1.6 2.3 0 0 0
1999 2.2 1.6 1 0 0
2000 3.4 2.2 1 0 0
2001 2.8 3.4 0 1 0
2002 1.6 2.8 0 1 0
2003 2.3 1.6 0 0 1
2004 2.7 2.3 0 0 1
2005 3.4 2.7 0 1 0
2006 3.2 3.4 0 1 0
2007 2.8 3.2 0 0 1
2008 3.8 2.8 0 0 1
2009 -0.4 3.8 0 0 0
2010 1.6 -0.4 0 0 0
2011 3.2 1.6 1 0 0
2012 2.1 3.2 1 0 0
2013 1.5 2.1 0 0 0
2014 1.6 1.5 0 0 0
2015 0.1 1.6 1 0 0