question in description

profilejcass69
migration_2.ppt
Home>Business & Finance homework help>Economics homework help>question in description

UCD Economics

Migration in Ireland

  • Traditionally large net outflows from Ireland with some short term respite in good periods

  • Change in nature of inward migration from late 80s early 90s

  • Large net inflows during celtic tiger years

  • Increasingly large net outflows in last few years

  • Many commentators seriously overestimated net outward migration in early years of current recession. Could be that networks for outward migrants no longer existed?

UCD Economics

Net-Migration, Natural Increase and Population Change (% of Population)

Source: CSO Statbank population statistics

UCD Economics

Source: CSO Statbank population statistics

Share of Net-Migration and Population by Age Group

UCD Economics

  • Ireland had a fairly ad hoc migration system pre 2007 based on work permits

  • Surge in migration from EU 2004 accession countries

  • Ireland, UK and Sweden adopted a fairly open policy

  • Other European countries continued to restrict movement

  • From 2007 Ireland adopted a more restrictive policy towards non-EEA migrants

  • Needed high skills or specific skills to be eligible

UCD Economics

UCD Economics

  • Barrett and Duffy 2006 show that immigrants are concentrated in low skill occupations given their education.

  • Barrett & McCarthy (2007) show that immigrants earn 15% less than natives (other things equal)

  • Non English speaking immigrants 20% less.

  • From new EU member states 32% less.

  • All this suggests new immigrants are different to traditional immigrants to Ireland.

UCD Economics

  • Composition

  • Early years of boom many immigrants from U.S. and U.K. (many returning home)

  • Over time share of EU and others increased.

  • Note 2005 EU accession this increased dramatically.

UCD Economics

  • The international literature suggests that immigrants suffer a large pay penalty on arrival but there earnings rise faster than natives with similar characteristics

Earnings

Age

Immigrants who arrive at year zero

Natives of same age

UCD Economics

  • At each skill level higher ability workers tend to emigrate.

  • They face language/cultural barriers etc. Absence of a network.

  • Over time they overcome these barriers and catch up with natives.

  • This could explain some of earnings gap for recent migrants to Ireland?.

UCD Economics

Barrett & Kelly (2010) look at how migrants have done in the recent downturn

Migration rose rapidly in boom and fell rapidly in downturn

UCD Economics

UCD Economics

Does not look like faster employment loss for migrants was due to composition effects

UCD Economics

Faster job loss led initially to higher unemployment rates for migrants

UCD Economics

Most of those who lost jobs left the country

UCD Economics

Immigrants (Especially non-English speaking or from accession states suffer a pay penalty)

Tend to be in low skill jobs given education level.

Is consistent with a story where immigrants have to overcome barriers in early years of arrival in a new country.

No evidence that EU accession increased unemployment for natives or existing migrants

  • Immigrants did worse in employment loss during recession compared with natives

  • This is in contrast to evidence from UK and Germany that there is no difference between natives & migrants in terms of effect of recent recession

  • During boom years Immigrants met increased labour demand, during recession first to be let go

Conclusions

-.01

0

.01

.02

.03

19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

year

Nat. IncreaseNet-Mig

Pop. Change

-.04

-.02

0

.02

.04

.06

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

year

15-2425-44

45-64

By Age Group

Net-Migration Share of Population

500

1000

1500

200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

year

15-2425-44

45-64

By Age Group

Net-Migration

Table 1: Average Earnings per hour (€) for Natives and Immigrants

2006 2009

Irish:

Hourly Earnings 21.55 23.16

Sample 43,947 57,875

All Immigrants:

Hourly Earnings 19.52 17.89

Sample 6,439 8,433

UK

Hourly Earnings 22.99 23.69

Sample 1,312 1,823

EU15 excl. UK & Ireland

Hourly Earnings 19.41 22.44

Sample 629 1,097

EU10 (2004 enlargement)

Hourly Earnings 12.10 12.78

Sample 1,773 3,478

EU2 (2007 enlargement)

Hourly Earnings 14.26 15.70

Sample 81 173

Non-EU, English Speaking

Hourly Earnings 21.52 20.83

Sample 287 307

Non-EU, Non-English speaking

Hourly Earnings 23.15 18.96

Sample 2,357 1,555

Note: 2009 wage data is expressed in 2006 prices.

Figure 3: Annual rates of employment change , Irish and EU NMS nationals, Q3 2007 to Q3 2012

Source: Central Statistics Office

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Q3 07Q3 08Q3 09Q3 10Q3 11Q3 12IrishAll non-IrishEU NMS