| 30% Extra Credit Question: You must answer all of the prior questions to be eligible for extra on this question |
| Use the following historical returns to answer the following questions. Use Solver's GRG Nonlinear Method |
| Q6a | "How should I allocate the money in my portfolio to maximize average return over 40 years?" What could be your worst return in any single year based on the historical record? |
| Q6b | "How should I allocate the money in my portfolio to maximize average return over 40 years but lose no more than 20% in any one year? How much did you have to give up in terms of the ending value? |
| Q6c | "How should I allocate the money in my portfolio to maximize minimum return over 40 years?" (Hint - Start with optimal solution to Q11A.) What could be your worst return in any single year based on the historical record? |
| Q6d | "How should I allocate the money in my portfolio to maximize minimum return over 40 years but lose no more than 20% in any one year? (Hint - Start with optimal solution to Q11b.) How much did you have to give up in terms of the ending value? |
| | | US Stocks | | | | International | | Bonds | | Cash |
| | | Large Cap | Mid Cap | Small Cap | Micro Cap | Developed | Emerging | LT Gov't | Intmed Term |
| | Year | S&P 500 Index | CRSP Deciles 3-5 Index | CRSP Deciles 6-7-8 Index | CRSP Deciles 9-10 Index | MSCI-EAFE | Emerging Markets | Long-Term Gov'tt Bonds | Five-Year US Treasury Notes | One-Month US Treasury Bills |
| | 1927 | 37.5% | 33.9% | 29.1% | 25.8% | 12.59% | 28.7% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| | 1928 | 43.6% | 40.1% | 31.8% | 46.7% | 9.11% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3.6% |
| | 1929 | -8.4% | -26.4% | -38.9% | -50.6% | -10.98% | -9.1% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| | 1930 | -24.9% | -36.3% | -39.3% | -45.5% | -22.94% | -9.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| | 1931 | -43.3% | -46.5% | -50.3% | -49.4% | -38.15% | -16.6% | -5.3% | -2.3% | 1.1% |
| | 1932 | -8.2% | -6.5% | -3.6% | 10.4% | 4.03% | -3.9% | 16.8% | 8.8% | 1.0% |
| | 1933 | 54.0% | 102.7% | 115.5% | 203.3% | 74.58% | 80.2% | -0.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| | 1934 | -1.4% | 10.8% | 21.6% | 25.6% | 7.23% | 22.7% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 0.2% |
| | 1935 | 47.7% | 41.7% | 58.5% | 65.4% | 4.72% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 0.2% |
| | 1936 | 33.9% | 35.5% | 53.2% | 79.6% | 10.47% | 16.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| | 1937 | -35.0% | -42.1% | -48.4% | -53.4% | -9.39% | -4.9% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| | 1938 | 31.1% | 38.3% | 42.9% | 23.3% | -9.66% | -4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | -0.0% |
| | 1939 | -0.4% | -1.5% | 4.5% | -1.8% | -13.01% | -15.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| | 1940 | -9.8% | -5.7% | -5.1% | -12.3% | 7.41% | -0.7% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| | 1941 | -11.6% | -8.6% | -9.8% | -14.9% | 27.60% | 18.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| | 1942 | 20.3% | 21.4% | 25.7% | 50.5% | -1.70% | 18.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| | 1943 | 25.9% | 38.0% | 58.0% | 102.4% | 11.88% | 22.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| | 1944 | 19.7% | 29.9% | 41.9% | 63.2% | -12.11% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| | 1945 | 36.4% | 56.4% | 63.7% | 83.7% | 1.30% | 18.5% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| | 1946 | -8.1% | -9.0% | -10.8% | -13.4% | -25.79% | -12.3% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| | 1947 | 5.7% | 1.4% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -5.90% | -1.9% | -2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| | 1948 | 5.5% | -0.0% | -4.1% | -6.6% | -8.44% | -14.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| | 1949 | 18.8% | 22.4% | 21.3% | 21.5% | -8.18% | -3.9% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| | 1950 | 31.7% | 30.3% | 36.6% | 45.9% | 5.37% | 7.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| | 1951 | 24.0% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 9.8% | 10.31% | 9.5% | -3.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| | 1952 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.5% | -0.91% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| | 1953 | -1.0% | -0.8% | -2.9% | -6.0% | 11.94% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| | 1954 | 52.6% | 56.0% | 57.5% | 65.2% | 33.79% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| | 1955 | 31.5% | 18.5% | 20.8% | 22.1% | 6.22% | 12.1% | -1.3% | -0.7% | 1.6% |
| | 1956 | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | -4.03% | 12.1% | -5.6% | -0.4% | 2.5% |
| | 1957 | -10.8% | -12.4% | -17.8% | -15.1% | -0.62% | 1.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% |
| | 1958 | 43.4% | 56.1% | 61.9% | 70.9% | 23.20% | 2.0% | -6.1% | -1.3% | 1.5% |
| | 1959 | 12.0% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 18.7% | 47.20% | 16.5% | -2.3% | -0.4% | 3.0% |
| | 1960 | 0.5% | 2.4% | -3.4% | -5.0% | 11.87% | 16.3% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% |
| | 1961 | 26.9% | 29.0% | 29.5% | 30.8% | 6.80% | -12.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| | 1962 | -8.7% | -13.1% | -16.8% | -16.5% | -10.21% | 20.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| | 1963 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 18.7% | 11.9% | 5.91% | 9.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| | 1964 | 16.5% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 18.3% | -2.51% | -4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| | 1965 | 12.5% | 26.1% | 35.0% | 38.0% | -6.37% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| | 1966 | -10.0% | -5.9% | -7.1% | -8.3% | -11.84% | -1.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| | 1967 | 24.0% | 39.9% | 63.9% | 103.4% | 23.84% | 11.2% | -9.2% | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| | 1968 | 11.1% | 21.1% | 31.8% | 50.2% | 22.68% | 26.5% | -0.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% |
| | 1969 | -8.5% | -14.7% | -22.2% | -32.4% | 2.26% | 19.3% | -5.1% | -0.7% | 6.6% |
| | 1970 | 4.0% | -2.0% | -9.9% | -16.8% | -14.37% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 16.9% | 6.5% |
| | 1971 | 14.3% | 21.2% | 20.3% | 17.7% | 31.77% | 36.7% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 4.4% |
| | 1972 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 5.6% | -1.4% | 39.09% | 29.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| | 1973 | -14.7% | -25.9% | -34.3% | -40.8% | -11.39% | 13.9% | -1.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% |
| | 1974 | -26.5% | -25.1% | -25.9% | -26.8% | -19.56% | -12.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% |
| | 1975 | 37.2% | 57.1% | 60.9% | 71.5% | 31.02% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| | 1976 | 23.8% | 39.8% | 50.7% | 53.4% | 2.33% | 16.1% | 16.8% | 12.9% | 5.1% |
| | 1977 | -7.2% | 3.9% | 17.1% | 21.8% | 16.14% | 24.2% | -0.7% | 1.4% | 5.1% |
| | 1978 | 6.6% | 10.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 31.43% | 19.4% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 7.2% |
| | 1979 | 18.4% | 33.0% | 46.3% | 43.7% | 9.42% | 35.9% | -1.2% | 4.1% | 10.4% |
| | 1980 | 32.4% | 31.4% | 33.1% | 34.6% | 23.47% | 34.4% | -3.9% | 3.9% | 11.2% |
| | 1981 | -4.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 8.2% | -3.86% | -5.1% | 1.9% | 9.5% | 14.7% |
| | 1982 | 21.4% | 24.4% | 29.4% | 27.2% | -1.30% | -24.3% | 40.4% | 29.1% | 10.5% |
| | 1983 | 22.5% | 26.4% | 28.8% | 34.1% | 23.84% | 21.6% | 0.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| | 1984 | 6.3% | -1.0% | -2.2% | -14.0% | 2.95% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 9.8% |
| | 1985 | 32.2% | 31.1% | 32.8% | 28.3% | 50.79% | 24.8% | 31.0% | 20.3% | 7.7% |
| | 1986 | 18.5% | 16.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 65.31% | 11.7% | 24.5% | 15.1% | 6.2% |
| | 1987 | 5.2% | 1.3% | -6.9% | -13.8% | 24.24% | 22.3% | -2.7% | 2.9% | 5.5% |
| | 1988 | 16.8% | 21.7% | 24.8% | 21.9% | 27.46% | 40.4% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| | 1989 | 31.5% | 24.8% | 19.2% | 8.2% | 11.14% | 65.0% | 18.1% | 13.3% | 8.4% |
| | 1990 | -3.1% | -10.5% | -17.8% | -27.4% | -23.08% | -10.6% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% |
| | 1991 | 30.5% | 41.9% | 48.6% | 50.1% | 12.04% | 59.9% | 19.3% | 15.5% | 5.6% |
| | 1992 | 7.6% | 16.1% | 17.4% | 28.1% | -12.27% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| | 1993 | 10.1% | 16.3% | 18.3% | 20.1% | 32.21% | 74.8% | 18.2% | 11.2% | 2.9% |
| | 1994 | 1.3% | -2.6% | -1.5% | -3.1% | 7.35% | -7.3% | -7.8% | -5.1% | 3.9% |
| | 1995 | 37.6% | 34.1% | 29.4% | 33.2% | 11.41% | -5.2% | 31.7% | 16.8% | 5.6% |
| | 1996 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 19.3% | 6.87% | 6.0% | -0.9% | 2.1% | 5.2% |
| | 1997 | 33.4% | 23.3% | 28.0% | 24.0% | 2.27% | -11.6% | 15.9% | 8.4% | 5.3% |
| | 1998 | 28.6% | 5.8% | 0.5% | -8.2% | 18.76% | -25.3% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
| | 1999 | 21.0% | 30.7% | 32.9% | 31.5% | 27.93% | 66.5% | -9.0% | -1.8% | 4.7% |
| | 2000 | -9.1% | -7.7% | -11.0% | -13.3% | -13.37% | -30.8% | 21.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% |
| | 2001 | -11.9% | -2.8% | 13.2% | 33.7% | -21.40% | -2.6% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
| | 2002 | -22.1% | -18.6% | -21.6% | -13.9% | -15.80% | -6.2% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 1.6% |
| | 2003 | 28.7% | 41.5% | 51.6% | 78.2% | 39.42% | 55.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| | 2004 | 10.9% | 18.2% | 21.1% | 16.6% | 20.38% | 25.6% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| | 2005 | 4.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 14.47% | 34.0% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| | 2006 | 15.8% | 13.9% | 16.2% | 18.0% | 25.71% | 32.1% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| | 2007 | 5.5% | 4.9% | 0.0% | -7.9% | 12.44% | 39.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 4.7% |
| | 2008 | -37.0% | -38.2% | -37.6% | -41.5% | -43.56% | -53.3% | 25.9% | 13.1% | 1.6% |
| | 2009 | 26.5% | 41.8% | 44.1% | 61.1% | 33.7% | 78.5% | -14.9% | -2.4% | 0.1% |
| | 2010 | 15.1% | 27.4% | 30.5% | 29.1% | 8.9% | 18.9% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 0.1% |
| | 2011 | 2.1% | -0.9% | -4.0% | -10.2% | -12.2% | -18.4% | 28.2% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| | 2012 | 16.0% | 16.4% | 18.1% | 17.3% | 16.4% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| | 2013 | 32.4% | 39.3% | 43.0% | 49.2% | 21.0% | -2.6% | -11.4% | -1.1% | 0.0% |
| | 2014 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | -4.3% | -2.2% | 23.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| | 2015 | 1.4% | -3.8% | -7.1% | -11.4% | -3.0% | -14.9% | -0.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% |