all instructions in the paper

BIO 112 Fall 2016

Name: Section: KM

Assignment #5

Global Climate Change

In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a Synthesis Report that

provides an integrated view of climate change as part of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

The report is at http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf.

Use the report to answer the following questions. Remember, this is an “OPEN-RESOURCE”

assignment.

1a. Using Figure SPM.2 on page 5, list the five categories of total annual anthropogenic

GHG emissions for 2010 and provide the percentage of each (2 points).

2010 GHG Emissions Category Percentage

1b. According to the report (page 5, 2 nd

paragraph), how likely is it that human influence

has increased the global average surface temperature by increasing GHG emissions from

1951 to 2010? (1 point).

2. Based on Section SPM 2.2 ‘Projected Changes in the Climate System’ (pages 10-13 and

Figures SPM.6 and SPM.7), complete the table by listing the projected increase in global

mean surface temperatures in degrees Celsius at the end of the 21 st

century (2081-2100)

relative to the 1986-2005 average for each climate model (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and

RCP8). See page 10, 3 rd

paragraph for information.

Then convert the degrees Celsius to degrees Fahrenheit using http://www.metric-

conversions.org/temperature/celsius-to-fahrenheit.htm [or °F = (°C x 1.8) + 32] and record in the

table. (3 points)

Global Average Surface Temperature Change in 2100 by Model Temperature Change/Increase RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

Degrees Celsius (C ) 1.7

Degrees Fahrenheit (F )

(Note: use the highest value in range, i.e., if range is 0.3 to 0.7, put the highest value, 0.7, in the

table)

BIO 112 Fall 2016

Assignment #5 Global Climate Change

3. The global average surface temperature for 2005 was 14.77 degrees Celsius (= 58.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Complete the table by adding the 2005 temperature to the temperature change (from the table for Question 2) to determine the projected global average surface temperature in 2100 for each model. (2 points)

Projected Global Average Surface Temperature in 2100 by Model Temperature RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

Degrees Celsius (C ) 14.77+1.7 = 16.47

Degrees Fahrenheit (F )

4. Based on SPM 2.4 ‘Climate Change Beyond 2100’page 16, explain, in your own words, why

‘climate change impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of

greenhouse gases are stopped’ by discussing the impacts on ONE of the following topics:

A) ocean acidification, B) permafrost loss, or C) sea level rise (2 points).

Visit the EPA (http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/), NASA (http://climate.nasa.gov/) and NOAA

(http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html) websites (and other websites) for more information.

BONUS: Define “RCP” and describe the level of (A) Radiative forcing, (B) CO2 equivalent (ppm), (C )

Temperature anomaly (°C), and (D) Pathway each model scenario (RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6)

represents (see Table 4: http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#ecpconcentrations)