executive summary for an essay

Islamic State

David Jones

American Military University

HLSS320

Professor Justin Novak

10/29/2016

Terrorism is a global threat that continues to grow despite efforts by many countries to finish terrorist organizations. The United States is always faced with the threat of terror within its boundaries. Americans all over the world are always at risks of being kidnapped and killed by terrorists. Currently, Al-Qaeda and ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) is the most dangerous terrorist organizations in the world (BBC, 2014). The paper examines ISIS with the aim of developing a comprehensive profile to assess the threat it poses to the US and the rest of the world. The paper will also discuss the most qualified members of the IC team to collect the data on the terror group as well as the most effective analytical strategies that will be used to analyze the information collected. As shall be seen from the discussion below, the most appropriate data collection programs on this particular organization are HUMINT programs and active military specialists as well as specialists from the Department of Defense will be the most appropriate data collectors and gatherers.

Background Information

ISIS is a jihadist group that was formed as a branch of Al-Qaeda in Iraq in April 2013. Formerly it was known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The formation of an Al-Qaeda branch in Iraq is attributed to the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (BBC, 2015). Abu Musab al-Zarqawi swore allegiance to Osama Bin Laden and formed an Al-Qaeda branch in Iraq in 2004 (BBC, 2014). It was a significant force in Iraq for a while. The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2006 prompted Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) to create an umbrella organization called Islamic State in Iraq. The growth of ISIS has been characterized by excessive violence to both Muslims and non-Muslims. It is pertinent to note that ISIS remains one of the most dangerous jihadist group even after being disavowed by Al-Qaeda (BBC, 2014). The separation came after ISIS succeeded in taking over vast territories in Syria and Iraq. The exact size of ISIS is not clear even though there is the belief that the group has many fighters spread in Iraq and Syria. They also have loyal followers in different parts of the world.

The group is under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (BBC, 2014). There is very little known about the leader of ISIS. Many security officials believe that he is a native of Samarra, north of Baghdad. He was born in 1971 and joined the insurgency that formed after the United States of America invaded Iraq in 2003. In 2010, he was the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The group is the one that grew to become an independent organization called ISIS (BBC, 2015). The leadership of ISIS is one of the things that makes it attractive to young jihadists. Baghdadi is a skilled tactician and battlefield commander, which is the opposite of Al-Qaeda leadership. The level of violence meted out by ISIS is an example of the levels that Baghdadi can go to push an agenda.

Goals and Objectives

The goal of ISIS is to create a nation that is guided only by the Sharia law. In June 2014, ISIS declared the formation of a caliphate, which is a state governed by Sharia Law and guided by Caliph. ISIS demands that all Muslims all over the world must swear allegiance to the caliphate and migrate to areas within its territory (McCants, 2016). They are also expected to show utmost respect to Baghdadi who is the Caliph (BBC, 2015). The group has gone as far as commanding jihadists groups all over the world to accept it has the supreme authority. Unfortunately, many small groups within the Al-Qaeda network have taken ISIS as the supreme authority in the ongoing jihad. It is clear that the primary goal of ISIS is bringing the entire world under the rule of the Islamic law (Bejesky, 2016). In the process, the group is trying to unite all Muslims with the hope of forming a formidable force. The organization is dedicated to the cause of restoring the rule of God on earth and defending Muslims against apostates and infidels.

Territory

According to the US Director National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), Mathew Olsen, the IS (Islamic State) is in control of the area that Euphrates-Tigris basin. The area is approximately 210,000 sq km (BBC, 2015). It was reported in 2014. In 2015, the US defense department believed that ISIS had been pushed back to control 20-25% of their original region. The US-led coalition air strikes made it difficult for the IS to maintain control over larger territories. It is important to note that IS managed to get their hands on a new territories with significant strategic value in the same period.

Analysis believes the figures being floated by the US Department of Defense do not reflect the actual situation on the ground. The Islamic State controls a tiny part of the territory because they lack the capacity to cover the entire area. They take turns to patrol the other parts of the territory occasionally. There is no precise information on the exact number of people living under the control of the Islamic State. In March 2015, the International Committee of Red Cross claimed that over 10 million are under the control of the Islamic State (BBC, 2015).

Information coming out of the areas under the strict control of IS confirm that there is a very strict interpretation of the Sharia Law (Bejesky, 2016). Women must wear full veils and non-Muslims have the option of paying an individual tax, converting to Islam or dying. Public beheadings are common in these areas.

IS Fighters

In 2015 US Intelligence claimed that the Islamic State has between 20,000 and 32,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria (BBC, 2015). It seems the state of the US-led coalition air strikes in 2015 have led to the death of many foot soldiers. US intelligence claims about 10,000 IS fighters have been killed already (BBC, 2015). The substantial loss of manpower has prompted the Islamic State to turn to conscription to increase its soldiers. In some areas of Iraq, it’s believed that the about 70% of the fighters have enrolled because they fear being killed.

It is imperative to note that a huge number of ISIS fighters are not from Iraq and Syria. The organization has attracted many foreign militants. It is believed ISIS has about 28,000 foreign fighters, and 5,000 of them are Westerners (BBC, 2015). Most of the Westerners are from Arab countries in the area, which are Tunisia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Targeted Areas

ISIS has targeted many areas outside Syria and Iraq. There were reports of ISIS bringing down a Russian Airplane with no survivors. US intelligence claims the plane might have crashed because of a technical failure. Regardless, the attack has been linked with ISIS. The group has been linked to the twin blasts that killed 14 people in Beirut (BBC, 2015). The group claimed responsibility for the wave of attacks that took place on 13 November last year. A total of 1,200 people has been killed in attacks orchestrated by ISIS outside Iraq (Yourish, Watkins, Giratikanon, & Lee, 2016).

Weapons

ISIS has access to advanced weaponry, which includes rocket launchers, machine guns, surface to air missile systems, and anti-aircraft guns (Bejesky, 2016). The organization provides fighters with a wide variety of small arms. The group has accessed tanks and armored vehicles from Syrian and Iraqi armies. The group has close connections that have made it possible to maintain a continuous flow of ammunition and weapons with significant challenges. ISIS is considered one of the richest jihad groups in the world. As a result, it is relatively easy to access advanced weaponry from questionable sources. The group generates money for maintenance and purchase of ammunition by asking for kidnapping ransom, selling crude oil, collecting the tax, and receiving donations from wealthy supporters.

The group has access to advanced surveillance equipment. Some of these equipment has been taken from the Iraqi and Syria army. They have access to qualified personnel who can use the social media as a tool of communication all over the ISIS network.

Training and Communication Methods

ISIS had access to brilliant minds that are training members on how to use encrypted platforms to communicate (Meyer, 2015). ISIS has a team of geeks who are teaching fighters to take advantage of social media, Whatsapp, Instagram and Silent Circle to communicate (Meyer, 2015). They use encrypted language to avoid being identified by spies. It has been a challenge for security officials to thwart attacks because of an efficient communication network formed by ISIS.

ISIS utilizes Nazi methods to train child soldiers. They have created secret training camps that start with brainwashing before one is taught combat (Bulman, 2016). The training camps are under strict Sharia Laws, which means punishment is severe. Children are forced to maim and carry out executions in a bid to strengthen their resolve (Bulman, 2016). Videos have been leaked online to show how ISIS fighters are put through extreme violence to learn. The Islamic State is keen on producing the next generation of soldiers who are not sensitive to extreme violence.

Data Collection Programs

For the most part, data collection on ISIS future terror plans has been difficult owing to the mystification of the group. The group operates using the psychology of terror, and it is often difficult to know when they are the perpetrators of the terror attack or not. The psychology of terror that the group uses can be seen through the random shootings, suicide bombings, car bombs, and homemade explosives throughout the world (BBC 2014, 1).

The members of the group are difficult to track because they are always under the radar. Some of the faces of the terrorists from this group only become known once they have participated in a terror attack. These individuals are usually the low cadre members of the group making it difficult to track the true leaders of the Islamic State. Furthermore, the group uses random shootings and car bombs all over the world to demonstrate their significant presence around the globe. These small organized crimes are difficult to track and even when arrests are made; the true organizers are never caught.

To aid in the collection of this time-sensitive data, it has been determined that human intelligence programs are best suited for the task. Such programs use people on the ground to collect information about a group, in this case, the terrorist group ISIS. The terror group often conducts surprise attacks, which can be difficult if not impossible to predict. Thus, human intelligence can be useful in providing pertinent details such as time and place of the next attack (Nygaard 2014, 5). The law enforcement agencies can then use this intelligence to prevent the planned attack from occurring.

HUMINT can be described as the intelligence derived from information collected from and provided by humans (NATO 2015, 2-H-5; Sullivan 2012, 7). The information is gathered through interpersonal contact as opposed to other data collection techniques that are more technical including imagery intelligence, signals intelligence, and measurement and signature intelligence. Human intelligence can take many forms including espionage, military contacts, refugees, traveler debriefing, friendly diplomats, prisoners of war, traveler debriefing, as well as non-governmental organizations.

For ISIS, the ground HUMINT sources will be essential during the preparation and collection phases of intelligence gathering. The ground sources have direct contact with members of the terror group and can gain access to critical information about the structure of the group, the leaders of each terror cell, as well as plans for future attacks in different parts of the world. The information gathered using such sources is considered high profile and can be directly used in military operations against ISIS.

In-depth reports indicate that the majority of funding for ISIS originates from the northeastern regions of Africa as well as Southwestern regions of Asia. For data collection to be most useful, it is imperative that HUMINT sources be placed in Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. Geospatial imagery confirms that these areas have high volumes of ISIS militant activities. Human sources placed in these areas can extract crucial information that could lead to the capture of the leaders of the group as well as the prevention of future terrorist attacks around the globe. The human sources set up in these areas need to be highly trained in dealing with the difficult terrain as most of these regions experience extreme temperatures (Sanchez 2015, 1).

As with other data collection programs, HUMINT programs have several limitations. Most of these limitations are linked to psychological connotations. For instance, perception, a psychological principle, affects the way a human source will receive and process firsthand information. The reason the source is providing such information to the law enforcement officers can also affect the credibility and reliability of the information provided (Nygaard 2014, 35). Other limitations include gaining sources that can provide information that fulfills intelligence requirements as well as the time and financial resources required to target, recruit, and operate the human sources on the ground.

Collectors of Intelligence

HUMINT collectors need to be able to manage a large number of human sources while at the same time attempt to gain personal access to documents, conversations, places, and information that qualify as integral intelligence (Sullivan 2012, 12). Furthermore, these collectors need to understand political psychology extensively to actually ‘target, recruit, and obtain information from a human source (Sullivan 2012, 12). HUMINT programs require the collectors to exercise political discretion, especially when operating in hostile territories such as ISIS-controlled regions. Also, the collectors of the intelligence need to be aware of why the human source is providing the information to judge the source’s credibility as well as the credibility of the information provided.

The best collectors of intelligence on the ISIS terror organization would be private intelligence specialists contracted using the Department of Defense as well as intelligence specialists from the military. These specialists need to be experts in Arabic and Farsi languages and cryptology. They also need to demonstrate high-level expertise in communication signals.

For most espionage cases, locals are usually targeted and recruited to offer information to the law enforcement agencies. However, it will not be prudent to recruit local nationals as human sources when attempting to gather intelligence on ISIS. HUMINT spies operate under US law among other international treaties. Thus, the way they extract information on the ground needs to be legal and ethical. The ISIS counter spies do not operate under such laws, and they use extreme methods to get information on their enemies. Recruiting local nationals as human sources will only expose the intelligence collectors to the ISIS counterspy operatives, putting their lives and the success of the mission in serious jeopardy.

Intelligence Analysis Strategies

The analysis process should begin by translating the information received by the intelligence collectors. Several linguists need to be contracted to translate the information to ensure that it is accurately translated. Cross-translation reduces the chances of misinterpretation of the intelligence collected. Other types of information sources such as film or electronic data also need to be transcribed into a document format for more exhaustive analysis.

Different strategies may be used to analyze the intelligence gathered. One of these strategies is the analysis of competing hypotheses, whereby the intelligence personnel evaluates competing theories on observed data. The main benefit of this analytical strategy is its unbiased take on different theories and observations. The method also helps the collectors and other personnel to overcome cognitive traps, which are a common occurrence in the field of intelligence gathering on terrorist groups (Thomason 2010, 12). Furthermore, the method is auditable as it requires the analysts to create a matrix. Mistakes can be noted easily every time the analysts go through the matrix to check for accuracy.

Recommendations

1. The Department of Defense and other concerned agencies need to dissolve the policy of using local nationals as HUMINT operatives in the areas controlled by ISIS. It has been discovered that ISIS recruits hundreds if not thousands of counterspies to gain information on US undercover military operations targeted at the terrorist group.

2. A law should also be put in place to increase the signing bonuses of military recruits who are proficient in Farsi and Arabic languages and cryptology. Such recruits will be instrumental in the intelligence collection and analyses phases owing to their familiarity with the languages used. The directive will act as an incentive for more military students to take up Arabic and Farsi courses during their training periods.

3. The Homeland Security Budget for the next year needs to be created before the current fiscal year ends. Preparing the budget in advance will help the Homeland Security Department to consider all the human, time, and space resources needed to effectively carry out intelligence programs in different regions controlled by ISIS over a one-year period. Budget constraints often hamper the effectiveness of the HUMINT programs in hostile nations.

Conclusion

ISIS is a very dangerous jihadist that is threating world peace every day. The group has grown without major obstacles because of the lack of a strong government since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The group continues to grow every day because of the war in Syria. It is imperative for the relevant organizations to come up with methods that can help Americans save from any ISIS attack.

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