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Q5. Phillips Curve

Period Unemployment rate(x) CPI growth (pi) natural rate unemployment(UEN) growth rate in oil prices
1960-01-01 5.1 1.39344 5.5 0.0
1960-04-01 5.2 1.82488 5.5 0.0
1960-07-01 5.5 1.35992 5.5 0.0
1960-10-01 6.3 1.39598 5.5 0.0
1961-01-01 6.8 1.50696 5.5 0.0
1961-04-01 7.0 0.86904 5.5 0.0
1961-07-01 6.8 1.20649 5.5 0.0
1961-10-01 6.2 0.70517 5.5 0.0
1962-01-01 5.6 0.89477 5.5 0.0
1962-04-01 5.5 1.30741 5.5 0.0
1962-07-01 5.6 1.20212 5.5 0.0
1962-10-01 5.5 1.30043 5.5 0.0
1963-01-01 5.8 1.22895 5.5 0.0
1963-04-01 5.7 1.03574 5.5 0.0
1963-07-01 5.5 1.36272 5.6 0.0
1963-10-01 5.6 1.39236 5.6 0.0
1964-01-01 5.5 1.48637 5.6 0.0
1964-04-01 5.2 1.46399 5.6 0.0
1964-07-01 5.0 1.07422 5.6 -1.7
1964-10-01 5.0 1.26611 5.6 0.0
1965-01-01 4.9 1.16392 5.6 0.0
1965-04-01 4.7 1.64622 5.7 0.0
1965-07-01 4.4 1.71659 5.7 0.0
1965-10-01 4.1 1.78566 5.7 0.0
1966-01-01 3.9 2.4193 5.7 0.0
1966-04-01 3.8 2.68974 5.8 0.0
1966-07-01 3.8 3.27391 5.8 0.6
1966-10-01 3.7 3.5685 5.8 1.1
1967-01-01 3.8 2.87078 5.8 0.7
1967-04-01 3.8 2.56672 5.8 0.3
1967-07-01 3.8 2.70718 5.8 1.6
1967-10-01 3.9 2.99243 5.8 0.8
1968-01-01 3.7 3.7401 5.8 0.0
1968-04-01 3.6 4.11855 5.8 0.0
1968-07-01 3.5 4.47761 5.8 0.0
1968-10-01 3.4 4.62397 5.8 0.0
1969-01-01 3.4 4.87427 5.8 2.0
1969-04-01 3.4 5.50198 5.8 7.0
1969-07-01 3.6 5.52286 5.9 0.0
1969-10-01 3.6 5.83355 5.9 0.0
1970-01-01 4.2 6.22578 5.9 0.0
1970-04-01 4.8 6.03848 5.9 0.0
1970-07-01 5.2 5.68597 5.9 -1.2
1970-10-01 5.8 5.6 5.9 2.5
1971-01-01 5.9 4.81102 5.9 4.9
1971-04-01 5.9 4.31496 5.9 0.0
1971-07-01 6.0 4.27075 6.0 0.0
1971-10-01 5.9 3.53535 6.0 0.0
1972-01-01 5.8 3.50587 6.0 0.0
1972-04-01 5.7 3.22581 6.0 0.0
1972-07-01 5.6 3.02948 6.1 0.0
1972-10-01 5.4 3.33415 6.1 0.0
1973-01-01 4.9 4.11294 6.1 0.0
1973-04-01 4.9 5.60817 6.1 0.0
1973-07-01 4.8 6.8371 6.1 14.0
1973-10-01 4.8 8.41693 6.2 6.2
1974-01-01 5.1 9.91565 6.2 134.6
1974-04-01 5.2 10.54788 6.2 0.0
1974-07-01 5.6 11.45759 6.2 0.0
1974-10-01 6.6 12.04798 6.2 10.4
1975-01-01 8.3 11.13531 6.2 0.0
1975-04-01 8.9 9.5394 6.2 0.0
1975-07-01 8.5 8.67963 6.2 0.0
1975-10-01 8.3 7.38337 6.2 0.0
1976-01-01 7.7 6.34048 6.2 5.4
1976-04-01 7.6 6.01504 6.2 3.5
1976-07-01 7.7 5.58903 6.2 4.7
1976-10-01 7.8 5.18573 6.2 9.0
1977-01-01 7.5 5.9034 6.2 0.0
1977-04-01 7.1 6.7961 6.2 0.0
1977-07-01 6.9 6.57417 6.2 4.6
1977-10-01 6.7 6.59522 6.3 2.2
1978-01-01 6.3 6.47466 6.3 0.0
1978-04-01 6.0 7.02937 6.3 0.0
1978-07-01 6.0 8.02397 6.3 0.0
1978-10-01 5.9 8.92895 6.3 0.0
1979-01-01 5.9 9.78376 6.3 4.5
1979-04-01 5.7 10.75434 6.3 14.0
1979-07-01 5.9 11.72253 6.3 44.7
1979-10-01 6.0 12.64148 6.2 20.5
1980-01-01 6.3 14.20954 6.2 16.2
1980-04-01 7.3 14.42577 6.2 10.2
1980-07-01 7.7 12.93487 6.2 -4.2
1980-10-01 7.4 12.53929 6.2 -4.0
1981-01-01 7.4 11.26112 6.2 4.6
1981-04-01 7.4 9.87393 6.2 -1.8
1981-07-01 7.4 10.85387 6.2 -3.6
1981-10-01 8.2 9.58313 6.2 -1.9
1982-01-01 8.8 7.58191 6.1 -11.4
1982-04-01 9.4 6.90677 6.1 11.2
1982-07-01 9.9 5.81573 6.1 -0.7
1982-10-01 10.7 4.44293 6.1 -2.1
1983-01-01 10.4 3.59408 6.1 -12.4
1983-04-01 10.1 3.29905 6.1 3.0
1983-07-01 9.4 2.52681 6.1 3.4
1983-10-01 8.5 3.23384 6.1 -5.5
1984-01-01 7.9 4.62551 6.1 1.2
1984-04-01 7.4 4.40519 6.1 0.6
1984-07-01 7.4 4.2957 6.0 -4.2
1984-10-01 7.3 4.1543 6.0 -5.7
1985-01-01 7.2 3.64175 6.0 -1.4
1985-04-01 7.3 3.60676 6.0 3.0
1985-07-01 7.2 3.35249 6.0 -0.2
1985-10-01 7.0 3.51377 6.0 5.0
1986-01-01 7.0 3.10539 6.0 -41.8
1986-04-01 7.2 1.67859 6.0 -19.5
1986-07-01 7.0 1.66821 6.0 -0.4
1986-10-01 6.8 1.34587 6.0 11.6
1987-01-01 6.6 2.03802 6.0 18.4
1987-04-01 6.3 3.6998 6.0 6.4
1987-07-01 6.0 4.16317 6.0 5.2
1987-10-01 5.8 4.40494 6.0 -8.6
1988-01-01 5.7 3.96512 5.9 -10.6
1988-04-01 5.5 3.97994 5.9 3.4
1988-07-01 5.5 4.14205 5.9 -12.0
1988-10-01 5.3 4.30666 5.9 -2.8
1989-01-01 5.2 4.67509 5.9 25.4
1989-04-01 5.2 5.15961 5.9 10.2
1989-07-01 5.2 4.70588 5.9 -5.4
1989-10-01 5.4 4.6276 5.9 5.4
1990-01-01 5.3 5.23231 5.9 7.1
1990-04-01 5.3 4.58373 5.9 -18.4
1990-07-01 5.7 5.56421 5.9 47.6
1990-10-01 6.1 6.27647 5.8 22.4
1991-01-01 6.6 5.25958 5.8 -31.5
1991-04-01 6.8 4.84687 5.8 -5.5
1991-07-01 6.9 3.85227 5.8 4.2
1991-10-01 7.1 2.96486 5.7 0.6
1992-01-01 7.4 2.89388 5.7 -13.2
1992-04-01 7.6 3.07302 5.7 12.3
1992-07-01 7.6 3.07467 5.6 2.1
1992-10-01 7.4 3.12198 5.6 -5.5
1993-01-01 7.1 3.17307 5.6 -3.2
1993-04-01 7.1 3.12525 5.5 -0.5
1993-07-01 6.8 2.81747 5.5 -9.8
1993-10-01 6.6 2.76978 5.5 -7.7
1994-01-01 6.6 2.53937 5.4 -9.7
1994-04-01 6.2 2.38237 5.4 20.2
1994-07-01 6.0 2.85493 5.4 3.6
1994-10-01 5.6 2.60333 5.4 -4.5
1995-01-01 5.5 2.84049 5.3 4.2
1995-04-01 5.7 3.09558 5.3 5.2
1995-07-01 5.7 2.6642 5.3 -7.6
1995-10-01 5.6 2.62608 5.3 1.5
1996-01-01 5.5 2.78391 5.2 9.0
1996-04-01 5.5 2.82709 5.2 9.9
1996-07-01 5.3 2.89991 5.2 2.9
1996-10-01 5.3 3.23162 5.2 10.3
1997-01-01 5.2 2.94453 5.2 -7.2
1997-04-01 5.0 2.30179 5.1 -12.8
1997-07-01 4.9 2.22505 5.1 -0.6
1997-10-01 4.7 1.89075 5.1 0.8
1998-01-01 4.6 1.48278 5.1 -20.1
1998-04-01 4.4 1.58313 5.1 -8.2
1998-07-01 4.5 1.59639 5.1 -2.9
1998-10-01 4.4 1.52536 5.1 -9.1
1999-01-01 4.3 1.68704 5.0 1.9
1999-04-01 4.3 2.1128 5.0 34.0
1999-07-01 4.2 2.34625 5.0 23.1
1999-10-01 4.1 2.61983 5.0 13.3
2000-01-01 4.0 3.258 5.0 17.5
2000-04-01 3.9 3.29343 5.0 0.1
2000-07-01 4.0 3.4689 5.0 9.4
2000-10-01 3.9 3.44351 5.0 1.4
2001-01-01 4.2 3.40976 5.0 -10.3
2001-04-01 4.4 3.32491 5.0 -2.9
2001-07-01 4.8 2.67803 5.0 -4.4
2001-10-01 5.5 1.87508 5.0 -23.2
2002-01-01 5.7 1.23195 5.0 5.6
2002-04-01 5.8 1.31765 5.0 21.4
2002-07-01 5.7 1.57628 5.0 7.8
2002-10-01 5.9 2.25352 5.0 -0.1
2003-01-01 5.9 2.97641 5.0 20.3
2003-04-01 6.1 2.00594 5.0 -14.9
2003-07-01 6.1 2.21689 5.0 4.3
2003-10-01 5.8 2.00165 5.0 3.1
2004-01-01 5.7 1.81767 5.0 13.4
2004-04-01 5.6 2.78587 5.0 8.4
2004-07-01 5.4 2.67523 5.0 14.5
2004-10-01 5.4 3.38513 5.0 10.0
2005-01-01 5.3 3.03535 5.0 3.3
2005-04-01 5.1 2.92294 5.0 6.4
2005-07-01 5.0 3.81957 5.0 19.2
2005-10-01 5.0 3.6745 5.0 -5.2
2006-01-01 4.7 3.69086 5.0 5.4
2006-04-01 4.6 3.92426 5.0 11.4
2006-07-01 4.6 3.34028 5.0 0.0
2006-10-01 4.4 1.9654 5.0 -15.0
2007-01-01 4.5 2.43148 5.0 -3.1
2007-04-01 4.5 2.66512 4.9 11.9
2007-07-01 4.7 2.34881 4.9 15.8
2007-10-01 4.8 4.03147 4.9 20.4
2008-01-01 5.0 4.1372 4.9 8.0
2008-04-01 5.3 4.31058 5.0 26.5
2008-07-01 6.0 5.2525 5.0 -4.4
2008-10-01 6.9 1.5958 5.1 -50.4
2009-01-01 8.3 -0.18424 5.2 -26.5
2009-04-01 9.3 -0.94229 5.3 38.2
2009-07-01 9.6 -1.60696 5.4 14.3
2009-10-01 9.9 1.4875 5.5 11.5
2010-01-01 9.8 2.35241 5.7 3.7
2010-04-01 9.6 1.77512 5.7 -1.3
2010-07-01 9.5 1.20273 5.7 -2.3
2010-10-01 9.5 1.22978 5.8 12.0
2011-01-01 9.0 2.14837 5.8 10.5
2011-04-01 9.1 3.34611 5.8 8.5
2011-07-01 9.0 3.71626 5.9 -12.3
2011-10-01 8.6 3.34458 5.9 5.1
2012-01-01 8.3 2.85214 5.8 9.5
2012-04-01 8.2 1.90143 5.8 -9.4
2012-07-01 8.0 1.65286 5.7 -1.2
2012-10-01 7.8 1.91811 5.7 -4.5
2013-01-01 7.7 1.72653 5.5 7.2
2013-04-01 7.5 1.3975 5.4 -0.3
2013-07-01 7.3 1.4989 5.3 12.5
2013-10-01 6.9 1.24588 5.2 -7.9
2014-01-01 6.7 1.4338 5.1 1.2
2014-04-01 6.2 2.04063 5.0 4.7
2014-07-01 6.1 1.75719 4.9 -5.3
2014-10-01 5.7 1.2122 4.9 -25.2
2015-01-01 5.6 -0.10269 4.9 -33.8
2015-04-01 5.4 0.02576 4.9 19.3
2015-07-01 5.2 0.13948 4.9 -19.6
2015-10-01 5.0 0.40991 4.9 -9.8
2016-01-01 4.9 1.06283 4.9 -20.5
2016-04-01 4.9 1.08811 4.8 36.3