For Eng.Kelvin Only

Forum 1 * 50 word reply

My current job role involves detecting fraud trends through real-time investigations utilizing different resources and practices. Fraud consists of many instances or incidents involved in repeated transgressions using the same method. Instances can be similar in content but usually are not identical.

Statistics comes into play through analysis techniques which include techniques for detection, validation or filling in missing or incorrect data. Calculation of parameters such as averages, quantiles, performance metrics, probability distributions, etc. Clustering and classification to find patterns and associations among groups of data and matching algorithms to detect anomalies in behavior of transactions or users compared to previously known models and profiles.

I am not sure if I will continue pursuing fraud after I earn my degree later this year but learning the material and seeing it in my day-day work really put things in a visual perspective for me and was really neat overall.  I believe statistics are everywhere and prior to this class, I always questioned when I would use this stuff and now I understand just where and why it’s important to each job role.  

Forum 2 *50 word reply

 I can't believe we are almost at the end of the course!  This is my last term here at American Public University and I am so thankful for everything that I have learned here.  Statistics was definitely a challenging course, probably the most challenging course during my entire time here. Some of the formulas and concepts were a little difficult for me to grasp at first but I was able to understand the majority of what we learned.  The topic that stuck out to me the most and that I will use the most has to do with Chapter 2 where we studied frequency distributions and graphs.

     In my day to day job I analyze a lot of data and one of the systems that I report off of most frequently is our customer relationship management tool.  I create and run queries for different data points and a lot of the data that I pull out needs to be displayed by the probability of close which is measured by 10, 25, 50 and greater than 75% increments.  The frequency distribution and graphs have really helped me to analyze how many opportunities are falling into each one of these buckets.  By using the excel Data Analysis tool I can create a summary table that lists my open opportunities by each probability percentage individually in Column A.  Next to it in Column B I can then enter the upper parameters of my "buckets" (10, 25, 50, 75%) I can then create a histogram using the Data Analysis tool which will give me a graph that will take each of my individual buckets (10, 25, 50 and greater than 75) and tell me how many opportunities fall into each bucket.  

Forum 3 *100 word reply with direct question

Topic: Problems and Needs

“In the business world, the rear view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” Warren Buffett

            As a human resource manager misconceptions of problem solving and needs especially within the organization starting from the top. Many CEO’s, managers, and supervisors feel they should not be questioned because of the position that they are in. One example is the higher ups in my line of work feel they have the right to neglect any and all questions or helpful advice in reference to the business, “Problems and needs” from their employees they consider beneath them. Our company does most of its training through the computer; every single employee employed has training this way. Getting the associates to break away from their daily work to do computer training is far from easy, and even harder when our management team including the Store Manager, puts a stop to it. The misconception is the management team thinking that it could always be that way. When the training is ignored they register as late, and this is a red flag at corporate level. When the amount of late training at our store was well over two hundred it fell on the shoulders of our Store Manager that this was unacceptable and he had to do something. Well he did, however there was nothing wrong with the way it was being handled the only problem was the resistance from management; it was like it was okay the training to be done as long as management was in control.

Another example is training employees, but managers are not being trained. As stated in the article by Kent (2007) the managers need to be managed and trained to be effective leaders (para. 1). It has always been in my opinion that leaders should take the low road and build their employees up to take their position. Communication and delegating is a very effective tool to have. When a CEO, manager, supervisor or individual utilizes their years of experience by always asking questions and looking for improvements to enhance blameless results.

The main issue and majority of the problem solving and need is communication. None of the higher ups are listening to the ‘little guy’. Many times the man who is lower on the totem pole so to speak usually gets blamed for the problem issues as well as needs. Asking the right question, communicating with all employees is a start of changing and correcting problems and needs.

Forum 4 * 100 word reply with direct question

 Many business leaders assume that the plan they have in place will work and continue to work as long as the plan is followed.  They get so involved with everyday operations and lose focus by assuming things like financials, cash flow, and inventory will all come together but, assumptions can cause big problems. Keep a good communication line open with your work force and be a good listener. As a business leader, you must make sure you have competent people in key positions to ensure your stakeholders are satisfied, delegate the everyday operations, and concentrate on strategic planning for the future. Another area that is critical is the internal and external environments. Make sure your people are doing their jobs correctly and that competition is not a threat.

With that said, a complete and controlled physical inventory was conducted in a business I own and it showed that we had much less inventory than our books indicated and that  the on hand inventory reflected. Something had happened to equipment and/or parts and repair. First assumption was that equipment and/or parts had left the store without being paid for.  After close inspection, the company had begun to package two units to each box and the boxes were inventoried as having one piece.  We had twenty units that had not been counted. I had the bookkeeper check the receiving ticket and found that twenty units had been received. The inventory could have been written off as shrink by assumption. Martin (2016) explained “Wrong conclusions can often lead to fatal errors for organizations by causing them to take actions that make their problems worse” (np). I could have reacted to the symptom instead by taking this incident, researching, and resolving the issue, the company’s books were back in balance and many dollars were saved.