Exercises: 2.1 and 14.1

Moving Averages

Moving Average
Periods of Moving Average =			3
MAD =	51.22222
MAPE =	0.023087
Period	Actual	Forecast	Error
1	2160
2	2186
3	2246
4	2251	0	2251
5	2243	0	2243
6	2162	0	2162
7		0
8
9
10
11
12
13
Periods of Moving Average =			4
MAD =	50.875
MAPE =	0.023099
Period	Actual	Forecast	Error
1	2160
2	2186
3	2246
4	2251
5	2243	0	2243
6	2162	0	2162
7		0

Actual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2160 2186 2246 2251 2243 2162 Forecast-Moving Average=3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0 0 0 Forecast-Moving Average=4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0

Periods

2.1 Answers

EX2.1
Months	Visits	Naïve	3-MA	4-MA
July	2160
August	2186
September	2246
October	2251
November	2243
December	2162
January
	Answers
a.			January forecast
b.			January forecast using 3-MA
c.			January forecast using 4-MA
	In 1-2 sentences, explain which you explain which of the three results you have the most confidence in projecting accurately and why that is.
d.

Single Channel Template

		Single Channel, Poisson Arrival, and Exponential Service Time (M/M/1)
		Arrival rate	λ	18
		Service rate	μ	20
		Average Number of customers waiting for service	Lq	8.1000
		Average Number of customers in the system (waiting or being served)	L	9.0000
		Average time customers wait in line	Wq	0.4500
		Average time customers spend in the system	W	0.5000
		System utilization	ρ	90%
		Service time	1/μ	0.0500
		Probability of zero units in system	P0	0.1000
			n	3
		Probability of 3 units in system	P3	0.0729

System Utilization 0.9 Average Time Customers Spend in Line 0.44999999999999996 Average Time customers spend in system 0.49999999999999994

14.1 Answers

	EX14.1	Answers
Arrival rate=		18
Service rate=		20	per hour
Nurse agent=		1
A.	System Utilization
B.	Average Number in Line
C.	Average Time in Line
D.	Average Time in the System