BUS 520 Module 4 Case (Revisions)
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module_4_case_excel.xlsx
Raw data
| Month | t | Sales (y(t)) | | Alpha |
| Jan | 1 | 420 | | 0.15 |
| Feb | 2 | 545 | | 0.9 |
| March | 3 | 301 |
| Apr | 4 | 510 |
| May | 5 | 485 |
| Jun | 6 | 525 |
| Jul | 7 | 460 |
| Aug | 8 | 500 |
| Sep | 9 | 402 |
| Oct | 10 | 584 |
| Nov | 11 | 422 |
| Dec | 12 | 514 |
| Jan | 13 | 441 |
| Feb | 14 |
| Mar | 15 |
| Apr | 16 |
MAPE 1
| | | | | Alpha | | | | | | Alpha |
| | | | | 0.15 | | | | | | 0.90 |
| t | Y(t) | | | F(T) | Y(T)-F(T) | PE | APE | | | F(T) | Y(T)-F(T) | PE | APE |
| 1 | 420 | | | 420.00 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | | 420.00 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 2 | 545 | | | 420.00 | 125.0 | 0.229 | 0.229 | | | 420.00 | 125.0 | 0.229 | 0.229 |
| 3 | 301 | | | 438.75 | -137.8 | -0.458 | 0.458 | | | 532.50 | -231.5 | -0.769 | 0.769 |
| 4 | 510 | | | 418.09 | 91.9 | 0.180 | 0.180 | | | 324.15 | 185.9 | 0.364 | 0.364 |
| 5 | 485 | | | 431.87 | 53.1 | 0.110 | 0.110 | | | 491.42 | -6.4 | -0.013 | 0.013 |
| 6 | 525 | | | 439.84 | 85.2 | 0.162 | 0.162 | | | 485.64 | 39.4 | 0.075 | 0.075 |
| 7 | 460 | | | 452.62 | 7.4 | 0.016 | 0.016 | | | 521.06 | -61.1 | -0.133 | 0.133 |
| 8 | 500 | | | 453.72 | 46.3 | 0.093 | 0.093 | | | 466.11 | 33.9 | 0.068 | 0.068 |
| 9 | 402 | | | 460.67 | -58.7 | -0.146 | 0.146 | | | 496.61 | -94.6 | -0.235 | 0.235 |
| 10 | 584 | | | 451.87 | 132.1 | 0.226 | 0.226 | | | 411.46 | 172.5 | 0.295 | 0.295 |
| 11 | 422 | | | 471.69 | -49.7 | -0.118 | 0.118 | | | 566.75 | -144.7 | -0.343 | 0.343 |
| 12 | 514 | | | 464.23 | 49.8 | 0.097 | 0.097 | | | 436.47 | 77.5 | 0.151 | 0.151 |
| | 472.333 | | | 443.612 | 28.721 | 0.033 | 0.153 | | | 464.347 | 7.986 | -0.026 | 0.223 |
| | | | | | ME | MPE | MAPE | | | | ME | MPE | MAPE |
MAPE 2
| | | Alpha | | | | | | Alpha |
| | | 0.15 | | | | | | 0.9 |
| Month | Y(t) | F(t) | Y(t)-F(t) | PE | APE | | Y(t) | F(t) | Y(t)-F(t) | PE | APE |
| Feb | 541 | 541 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 541 | 541 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar | 529 | 541 | -12 | -0.02 | 0.02 | | 529 | 541 | -12 | -0.02 | 0.02 |
| Apr | 621 | 539.2 | 81.8 | 0.13 | 0.13 | | 621 | 530.2 | 90.8 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| | 563.667 | 540.400 | 23.267 | 0.036 | 0.051 | | 563.667 | 537.400 | 26.267 | 0.041 | 0.056 |
| | | | ME | MPE | MAPE | | | | ME | MPE | MAPE |