Tom
Sanise
global_market_airbus.pdf
Global Market Forecast
Flying by Numbers 2015 2034
G lo
b a l M
a rk
e t F
o re
c a st 2
0 1 5 2
0 3 4
Introduction
For this year’s Global Market
Forecast we have chosen the
theme of equations and numbers.
It seemed appropriate as the
economists and data analysts
working on Airbus’ forecasts
spend much of their day either
searching for and evaluating new,
complementary and relevant
sources of data; then trying to find
ways to use these numbers more
effectively to improve the reliability
and validity of our analyses and
forecasts. They rely daily on
equations and ever more capable
software tools to achieve this.
But more than this, a key part of
their work is to check and challenge
the methodologies used and the
analyses produced against real
world behaviours of passengers
and airlines alike. Their aim is to
identify a market-based vision of
air transport over the next 20 years
backed up by rigorous data, clear
graphics and industry insight.
The numbers resulting from our
equations will in time become real
passengers and aircraft, and their
worldwide flows will drive aviation
infrastructure and investment.
It may sound a little geeky to quote
the philosopher and mathematician
Plato, but he got it right when he
said “A good decision is based on
knowledge and not on numbers”
Our aim is to apply knowledge to
numbers and through the GMF to
share this with you.
We hope that you find the 2015
Global Market Forecast informative
and useful. We seek to improve
our analyses continually, and
your questions, challenges and
suggestions help us advance
towards that goal. Don’t forget you
can download our App in several
formats from tablet to smartphone.
It complements the forecast
and includes our thoughts in an
interactive format.
As usual this is best read on
an aeroplane, perhaps taking
advantage of the quiet, smooth
comfort of your next A380 flight.
Enjoy!
“WE ARE FOCUSED ON OUR LONG-TERM FUTURE MORE THAN EVER BEFORE.” Fabrice Brégier CEO Airbus
002Flying by Numbers
Network and traffic forecast
018
Freighter forecast 080
Demand for air travel 012
Demand by region 050
P.052 Asia-Pacific P.056 Europe P.060 North America P.064 Middle East P.068 Latin America & Carribbean P.072 CIS P.076 Africa
Summary & methodology
088
Executive summary
004
Demand for passenger aircraft
042
Executive summary
Passenger traffic growth next 20 years
4.6% AAGR
Freight traffic growth
4.4% AAGR
Passenger deliveries (> 100 seats) 2015-2034
31,781
New freighters 2015-2034
804
Passenger & New freighter deliveries 2015-2034
32,585
Freighter fleet 2014
1,633 2034
2,687
+1,054
Passenger fleet 2014
17,354 2034
35,749
+18,395
Traffic > double
Pax fleet > double
Demand for 32,585 New pax & Freight aircraft
Value of Demand $4.9 trillion
007Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers006
World annual traf�c (trillion RPK)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2034202920242019201420092004199919941989198419791974
x 2
Air traf�c has doubled every 15 years
Air traf�c will double in the next 15 years
ICAO total traf�c Airbus GMF 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2034Beginning 2015
19,000
38,500
Growth
Replacement
Stay in service
19,500
13,100
5,900
Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034
32,600 New
aircraft
AIR TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometers
DEMAND FOR SOME 32,600 NEW PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT Source: Airbus Notes: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes
2014-2034
4.6%
New Deliveries
32,600 GMF 2015-2034
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
% units
% value
25%
43%
5%
12%
70%
45%
0
5,000
1,0000
1,5000
2,0000
2,5000
Very Large AircraftTwin-aisleSingle-aisle
22,900
8,100
1,600
SINGLE-AISLE: 70% OF UNITS; WIDE-BODIES: 55% OF VALUE Passenger aircraft (≥100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF May 2015
PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER DELIVERIES
009Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers008
• Passenger traffic to grow at 4.6% per year to 2034
• Traffic to double in the next 15 years as in the past
• Giving 15.2 trillion RPKs by 2034
• “Domestic China” to become the largest single passenger traffic flow
• International long–haul traffic expected to grow faster than
domestic and international short-haul, taking a 45% share by 2034
• Most deliveries to go to Asia-Pacific, 12,596 passenger and freighter
aircraft
• North America and Europe 37%, or 11,909 aircraft
• 1,552 passenger aircraft forecast to be converted to freighters
• Nearly 14,000 aircraft will be retired to be replaced by more
eco-efficient types
2015-
2024
2025-
2034
2015-
2034
SHARE OF 2015-2034
NEW DELIVERIES
AFRICA 460 657 1,117 3%
ASIA-
PACIFIC 4,986 7,610 12,596 39%
CIS 577 711 1,288 4%
EUROPE 3,375 2,990 6,365 20%
LATIN
AMERICA 1,111 1,399 2,510 8%
MIDDLE
EAST 1,174 1,187 2,361 7%
NORTH
AMERICA 2,972 2,572 5,544 17%
FREIGHTERS 463 341 804 2%
WORLD 15,118 17,467 32,585 100%
Asia-Pacific alone to take 39% deliveries
North America/Europe 37% deliveries
Single-aisle 70% of deliveries Wide-body 55% by value
11,834 Pax aircraft Replaced by more Eco-efficient types
NEW AIRCRAFT DEMAND PASSENGER AND FREIGHTERS DEMAND FOR MORE THAN 32,500 NEW AIRCRAFT Passenger aircraft (≥100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Converted
Remarketed & stay in service
31,781
32,585
1,552
3,968
804
11,834
13,135
1,301
Passenger Fleet
New Deliveries
Retired
Freighter Fleet
011Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers010
Flying by Numbers012 013Flying by Numbers
Demand for air travel
KEY DRIVERS FOR AIR TRAFFIC GROWTH
• Economic growth
• Increasing urbanisation
• Expanding middle class
• Rise in international students, migration and tourism
• Trade
• Growing mega-cities, centres for people, wealth, and aviation
• Liberalisation and bi-lateral air service agreements
AIR TRANSPORT GROWTH IS HIGHEST IN EXPANDING REGIONS
Yearly RPK growth 2015-2034
+5.8%
China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe
6.3 billion
people 2014
EMERGING/ DEVELOPING
Yearly RPK growth 2015-2034
+3.8% Western Europe
North America
Japan
1 billion
people 2014
ADVANCED
LIBERALISATION AND GLOBALISATION HAVE DRIVEN WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH Sources: ICAO WASA database, Airbus
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945
Number of bilateral air services agreements in the World
More than
2,550 BILATERAL AIR SERVICE AGREEMENTS BETWEEN MORE THAN
170 COUNTRIES, ALMOST 15,000 POSSIBLE COUNTRY-PAIRS
015Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers014
MIDDLE CLASS TO GROW, DOUBLING IN EMERGING COUNTRIES Sources: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2015 * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices
• Economic and population growth in emerging markets will help to
drive traffic growth beyond more mature markets
• The middle classes set to double in emerging markets, also global
share of private consumption in emerging markets set to grow from
31% today to 43% in 3034, both factors to drive aviation growth
• Liberalisation and visa process simplification stimulating air
traffic growth
• By 2034, on a per capita basis, the people of China will be flying
as much as European’s today
• More than 2,500 air service agreements between +170 countries
enables almost 15,000 possible city pairs
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2034202420142004
28% 46% 55%37%
1,792
2,703
3,671
4,721
1,120 2,001
2,936
3,977
247 259 263 264
425 444 471 480
Middle Class*, millions of people
6,400 8,000 8,6007,200 World population
% of World population
History Forecast
Propensity to travel
74% OF THE POPULATION OF THE EMERGING COUNTRIES WILL TAKE A TRIP A YEAR IN
2034
2014 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
2034 trips per capita
100,00
10,00
1,00
0,10
0,01
0,00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
India 0.30 trips per capita
PRC 1.09 trips per capita
Europe 2.24 trips per capita
North America 2.16 trips per capita
BY 2034, PRC WILL REACH CURRENT EUROPEAN LEVELS Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2015
Emerging countries
North America
Europe
Flying by Numbers016 017Flying by Numbers
Network and traffic forecast
• The network is constantly evolving
• More routes, bigger existing routes, more connectivity
• By 2034, 70% of network growth and 84% of total RPKs will be
centred on todays routes/network
• Aviation Mega-Cities (AMCs) big today, bigger tomorrow
• More than 90% of international long-haul flying centred on just
47 cities
• 22% of global GDP focused on the AMCs, helping drive the share
of higher yield passenger up from these cities
• As traffic grows and O&D between the “big points” concentrates,
congestion is an issue at many key airports
• The trend to larger aircraft helping, more larger aircraft to come
• The A380 for example, already proven it helps increase pax, reduce
airline costs, and free up slots at congested airports
More services
SINCE 2004
+31%
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
201420122010200820062004
Base 100 in 2014
DESPITE A MAJOR CRISIS IN 2008, AIRLINES HAVE OFFERED MORE SERVICES* TO THEIR CUSTOMERS Notes: as of September *Service is defined as a new airport pair or a new airline operating an existing airport pair Sources: OAG, Airbus
ASKs: +57% Services: +31% City pairs: +26%
021Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers020
47 AVIATION MEGA-CITIES IN 2014 Sources: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF 2015
2014 Aviation Mega-Cities
10,000 230,000
+90% OF LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC ON ROUTES TO/FROM/ VIA 47 CITIES
22% OF WORLD GDP IN
2014
0.9M DAILY PASSENGERS: LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC TO/ FROM/ VIA MEGA-CITIES
AVIATION MEGA-CITIES
47
Flying by Numbers022 023Flying by Numbers
2014-2034 NEW SERVICES Source: Airbus
70% OF TRAFFIC GROWTH UNTIL 2034 WILL COME FROM THE EXISTING NETWORK Source: Airbus GMF 2015
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
20342014
Monthly Trillion RPK
Growth from new routes
Growth from existing network Base year Traffic
Flying by Numbers024 025Flying by Numbers
2014 Aviation Mega-Cities
THESE AIRPORTS ARE ALREADY LARGELY CONGESTED Sources: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF
39 OUT OF THE
47 AVIATION MEGA CITIES ARE SCHEDULE- CONSTRAINED TODAY IATA WSG level 3: airports
where conditions make it impossible to meet demand
IATA WSG level 2: airports with potential for congestion
IATA WSG level 1: airport infrastructure is adequate
*Aviation Mega-Cities International Airports
Flying by Numbers026 027Flying by Numbers
MORE SEATS , MORE SEATS FILLED, MORE MOVEMENTS & MORE CONNECTIVITY , BUT…
In the last 30 years:
• Airport movements up nearly 2.5 times
• Airport connectivity almost doubled
• Offered seats per aircraft have nearly doubled
• Worldwide average load factor ~80%, up 17 percentage points
since 1980
However since 2000:
• Average kilogrammes of fuel per passenger trip is down a third
• Therefore CO per passenger trip is also down a third
MORE MOVEMENTS, MORE CONNECTIVITY Sources: OAG, Airbus GMF 2015
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
20142010200520001995199019851980
Avg. number of movements per airport
x 2.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20142010200520001995199019851980
Avg. number of destinations per airport
x 1.9
Airport movements
Airport connectivity
029Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers028
MORE PRODUCTIVE SEATS Sources: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
LESS FUEL BURN, THEREFORE LESS EMISSIONS Sources: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
20142010200520001995199019851980
Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)
+46%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20142012201020082006200420022000
Kliograms per passenger trip (avg.)
-33%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
20142010200520001995199019851980
World passenger load factors (%)
+17 percentage
points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20142012201020082006200420022000
-33%
Kliograms per passenger trip (avg.)
Yearly offered seats per aircraft Fuel consumption
Load factors Co2 emissions
LESS FUEL AND LESS CO !
Flying by Numbers030 031Flying by Numbers
PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST – 4.6% PER ANNUM (2014-2034)
• Aviation remains resilient to crises, growing 85% since 2001
• Domestic China will be the largest flow by 2034, forecast to grow
nearly four times
• Half of the top 20 traffic flows will include Asia-Pacific
• Airlines in the Asia-Pacific will fly 36% of total traffic, North American
and European airlines forecast to fly 38% of RPKs combined
• Middle Eastern carriers will grow from an 9% share to 13% of
traffic in the next 20 years
• Despite perturbations Airbus’ historical traffic forecasts continue to
track the long term trend
AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer
World annual traf�c (trillion RPK)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014201120072003
2001
199919951991198719831979197519711967
85%
World traffic
85% GROWTH SINCE 9/11
Asia-Pacific leading growth
50% OF THE TOP TWENTY TRAFFIC FLOWS WILL INVOLVE ASIA-PACIFIC
Annual O&D traf�c per �ow (billion RPK)
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
Middle East - USA Australia & New Zealand - Western Europe
Central Europe - Western Europe Indian Subcontinent - USA
Western Europe - PRC Domestic Brazil
South America - USA Asia Emerging - Western Europe Western Europe - South America
PRC - USA Indian Subcontinent - Middle East
Domestic India Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic Asia Emerging Western Europe - USA
Intra Western Europe Domestic USA Domestic PRC x3.8
x1.4
x1.7 x1.7
x3.7
x2.4 x5.8
x3.4 x4.1
x2.2 x2.4 x2.8
x2.9
x3.0
x3.8 x2.5
x2.4 x4.1
x2.5 x3.1
DOMESTIC PRC WILL BE THE LARGEST O&D TRAFFIC FLOW IN 2034 Source: Airbus GMF 2015
2014
2034
Flying by Numbers032 033Flying by Numbers
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Europe
Asia-Paci�c
RPK traf�c by airline domicile (billions)
ASIA-PACIFIC TO LEAD IN WORLD TRAFFIC BY 2034 Source: Airbus GMF 2015
2014 traffic 2015-2034 traffic
% of 2014 world RPK
20-year growth % of 2034 world RPK
29% 5.7% 36%
25% 3.6% 21%
25% 2.5% 17%
9% 6.7% 13%
5% 5.2% 6%
4% 4.9% 4%
3% 5.3% 3%
20-YEAR WORLD ANNUAL TRAFFIC GROWTH
4.6%
035Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers034
DESPITE “UPS AND DOWNS” GMF TRAFFIC FORECASTS TRACK THE LONG TERM TREND Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
GMF long term validity
GMF 2000 LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH OUR LATEST FORECAST
World annual traf�c (RPKs - trillions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20262022201820142010200620021998
GMF 2000
GMF 2015
GMF 2008
Historical
037Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers036
PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST
• Traffic between emerging markets forecast to grow the fastest at
6.6% AAGR. They will also have the largest share of RPKs with 36%
• Advanced to Emerging traffic flows will also grow strongly at
5.0% AAGR between 2014 and 2034
• Traffic to and from the emerging regions will account for 70% of
World RPKs by 2034
• International long haul traffic will continue to represent about 45% of
the World RPKs in the next 20 years, and will grow most strongly
at 4.7% AAGR to 2034
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20342014
Share of the World traf�c by type of �ow (RPKs) 2014-2034 AAGR
+5.0%
+2.6%
+6.6%
34% 32%
30% 43%
36% 25%
Advanced - Emerging
Emerging- Emerging
Advanced - Advanced
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
203420142002
World annual traf�c (trillion RPK)
23%
45%
44%
32%
24%
ICAO total traf�c
Airbus GMF 2015
2014-2034 AAGR
International Short-Haul +4.5%
Domestic +4.5%
International Long-Haul +4.7%
32%
Long-Haul demand leads the market
INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC WILL CONTINUE TO REPRESENT ABOUT
45% OF WORLD RPKs IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS
EMERGING REGIONS WILL DRIVE WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH
TRAFFIC FROM / TO / WITHIN EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
70% OF WORLD RPKs
2034
EMERGING REGIONS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST SHARE OF ORIGIN AND DESTINATION TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE Source: Airbus GMF 2015
INTERNATIONAL LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC WILL STILL REPRESENT THE LARGEST SHARE OF TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE Sources: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 2015 Long-haul: O&D distance >2000 NM
Flying by Numbers038 039Flying by Numbers
FREIGHT TRAFFIC FORECAST
• Freight traffic (main deck and belly hold) will grow on average 4.4%
per annum over the next 20 years
• As for passenger traffic, growth involving the emerging markets
will be strong, with 6.1% AAGR between emerging countries, and
between advanced and emerging
• 80% of all freight traffic is linked to these emerging markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
20342032203020282026202420222020201820162014201220102008200620042002200019981996
Billion Freight tonne kilometres
History Forecast Advanced Advanced
2.6%
Emerging Emerging
6.1%
Advanced Emerging
4.9%
Emerging Advanced
4.9%
80%
Growth Rate 2014-2034
Annual growth rate 2014-2034
4.4% INCLUDES BELLY AND MAIN DECK
Flying by Numbers040 041Flying by Numbers
Demand for passenger aircraft
• Average aircraft size is increasing
• Average aircraft size per flight has grown from 139 seats to over 170
seats since the early 1970’s
• A second period of average aircraft size growth is beginning with
today’s backlog
• Single-aisle aircraft range from 100 to 240 seats, with the A321
offering this highest seating configuration, with the possibility on
the range side of flying 4000nm
• For wide-body types there is operational overlap with the single-aisle,
with lower seating limits around 200 seats increasing to 600 or even
higher with the A380
• This overlap has developed as the capability of both segments of
today’s aircraft have grown, leaving an already seamless coverage
between the single-aisle and widebody markets
• With international long-haul traffic growing the fastest, the “big
points” like Aviation Mega-Cities will grow in importance. This
will have an effect on the size and type of aircraft selected by airlines in
the coming years
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
2014201220072002199719921987198219771972
Average capacity per �ight, aircraft above 100seats
WIDE-BODIES OFFER 10% OF SEATS OPERATED BELOW 2,000NM Note: September 2014 Sources: OAG, Airbus
AVERAGE AIRCRAFT CAPACITY PER FLIGHT HAS INCREASED OVER TIME Sources: Airbus, OAG September month for each year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
60005600520048004400400036003200280024002000160012008004000
Single-Aisle
Single-Aisle operates 15%
of seats over 2,000nm
Wide-Bodies operates 10% of seats below 2,000nm
Wide-Body
Share of global seats offered
Sector Length (nm)
Flying by Numbers044 045Flying by Numbers
AMC to AMC
TO REPRESENT
77% OF ALL LONG HAUL TRAFFIC
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
203420242014
Monthly international long-haul passengers (Millions)
Long-haul, �ight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traf�c
Sources: Sabre (September 2014 data), Airbus
Flying by Numbers046 047Flying by Numbers
Aviation Mega-City to Aviation Mega-City
Aviation Mega-City to Secondary City
Secondary City to Secondary City
1% 85% 14%
7% 59 % 34 %
1% 88 % 11 %
2% 76 % 22 %
GLOBAL NETWORK NORTH AMERICA
LCCs
OTHERS*
14,116 (44%) 5,544 (17%)
1% 79% 20%
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
2,510 (8%)
3% 75% 22%
AFRICA
1,117 (4%)
16% 38%
46%
MIDDLE EAST
1,117 (7%)
2% 85% 13%
CIS
1,288 (4%)
5% 66% 29%
ASIA-PACIFIC
3% 79% 18%
EUROPE
6,365 (20%)
9,321 (29%)
8,345 (26%)
*Charters, Regional, Small and Major network airlines
12,596 (40%)
10%
47%43%
US$ 4.7 trillion
1,275
22,927
7,579
31,781 aircraft
New deliveries
Market value Fleet evolution
17,354
18,395
13,386
3,968
Beginning 2015
2034
Growth
Replaced
Stay in service & remarketed
US$ 2.2 trillion
US$ 2.0 trillion
US$ 0.5 trillion
New deliveries by neutral category
1,296
3,478
7,459 6,872
3,822
2,574 2,610
1,463 932 1,275
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 VLA
35,749
VLA TA SA
Flying by Numbers048 049Flying by Numbers
Demand by region
NEW DELIVERIES
37% REPLACEMENT
63% FOR GROWTH
33% WILL BE TWIN-AISLE WITH MANY OF THESE TO BE USED ON MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONS, AS WELL AS LONG-HAUL
• Asia-Pacific will continue to lead world economic growth, both in
terms of real GDP with an average growth of 4.5% per year and in trade
with an average of 5.3% growth per year
• “Asia developed” countries delivered 39% of the total traffic to/
from/within Asia-Pacific in 2004, today it accounts for 28% of the
total traffic
• Conversely, PRC has increased its share of the region’s traffic from
23% in 2004 to 31% in 2014
• Airlines domiciled in the PRC increased their market share from 26%
of Asia-Pacific’s total Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) in 2004 to 33%
in 2014
• Ten of the top 20 traffic flows forecast include Asia/Pacific
• Asia-Pacific have experienced growth in low cost operations in
recent years
• The Indian subcontinent and “Asia emerging” countries LCCs have
captured ~60% of the total domestic traffic
• In more mature markets in the region the LCC share is significantly
smaller ~25% shareAsia- Pacific
12,596
053Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers052
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segment
624 1,089
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
2,554
8,329
Asia- Paci�c
6.0%
North America
4.9%
Latin America
5.9%
Middle East
6.3%
CIS
5.9%Europe 4.4%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 626
5,275
New deliveries
12,596
13,222
Growth 7,947
Fleet in service evolution Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
5.3%
Intra-regional & domestic 6.0% Inter-regional 5.1%
2015 5,275
2034 13,222
Total traf�c 5.6%
Real GDP 4.5%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
12,596
Total RPK traf�c growth
Asia- Paci�c
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0% 4.1% 4.6%
6.4%
4.8% 5.6%
2034Beginning 2015
Africa
7.3%
Replacement 4,649
Results Flying by Numbers054 055Flying by Numbers
• Whilst the Eurozone economy has had difficulty gaining momentum,
consumer spending is accelerating
• Air transport is a core industry in Europe. In 2014, it accounted
for 4.1% of the region’s GDP, supporting more than 12 million jobs
according to a recent ACI report
• Tourism is a major driver for European international traffic. The
UNWTO reported that Europe attracted 588 million visitors in 2014, a
4% increase versus 2013
• Over the next 20 years, we forecast that the passenger traffic from /
to / after the to i.e. to / within the region will grow at a yearly average rate
of 4.6% in Central Europe, and 3.3% in Western Europe
• Europe leads the long haul market. 60% of the World’s long haul
flights (those over 6000km) depart or arrive in Europe
• Europe’s average propensity to travel in 2014 was 1.2 trips per
capita (The US stands at 1.6 trips per capita)
Europe 6,365 NEW DELIVERIES
51% REPLACEMENT
49% FOR GROWTH
79% WILL BE SINGLE- AISLES DUE TO THE EUROPEAN POPULATION LANDSCAPE
Flying by Numbers056 057Flying by Numbers
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segment
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
787
5,052
370 156
Europe
2.9% Asia-
Paci�c
4.4%
North America
2.8%
Latin America
3.5%
Middle East
4.6% Africa
4.7%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 843
2034
4,093
Beginning 2015
New deliveries
6,365
7,208
Growth 3,115
Fleet in service evolution Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
3.4%
Intra-regional & domestic 2.9% Inter-regional 3.9%
2015 4,093
2034 7,208
Total traf�c 3.6%
Real GDP 1.7%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
6,365
Total RPK traf�c growth
World
Europe
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0% 4.1%
4.6%
CIS
4.6%
3.9% 3.4% 3.6%Replacement
3,250
Results Flying by Numbers058 059Flying by Numbers
• Consumer spending sustained by strong employment growth,
improved household finances, low gasoline prices, the housing market
and capital expenditure recovery have helped drive US economic
activity
• US real GDP growth is forecast to average 2.5% per year in the
2014-2034 period, with greater business fixed investment and R&D
spending offsetting the slowdown in labour force growth
• By 2034, North America is forecast to still account for 21% of the
World economy (in real terms)
• For a third consecutive year, airlines in the region achieved collective
profitability in 2014, this mainly due to effects of consolidation and
lower fuel costs
• With the return of profitability in 2010, the number of single-aisle
aircraft has increased and with a stabilisation in the number of
twin-aisle aircraft meeting market needs
• The domestic US air transport market, the largest single market
today, will remain enormous, and is forecast to be the second biggest
flow in the world with 90 billion RPKs by 2034
• Traffic between the US and China is forecast to be the most
dynamic of the North American regions flows with an average yearly
growth of 7.3%
North America
5,544 NEW DELIVERIES
65% REPLACEMENT
35% FOR GROWTH
85% WILL BE SINGLE- AISLES DUE TO THE IMPORTANCE OF THE US DOMESTIC MARKET
061Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers060
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segment
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
582
4,733
194 35
North America
1.8% Asia-Paci�c 4.9%
Africa
4.8%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 551
2034
4,182
Beginning 2015
New deliveries
5,544
6,095
Growth 1,913
Fleet in service evolution Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
4.6%
Intra-regional & domestic 1.8% Inter-regional 4.2%
2015 4,182
2034 6,095
Total traf�c 3.4%
Real GDP 2.5%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
5,544
CIS
4.4%Europe 2.8%
Total RPK traf�c growth
North America
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1% 4.6%
3.1% 3.4%
3.7%
Latin America
4.5%
Middle East
7.1%
Replacement 3,631
Results Flying by Numbers062 063Flying by Numbers
• The region’s medium-term economic outlook remains supported by its
substantial petroleum resources, close proximity to energy-hungry
Asian economies, growing tourism potential and strategically
important geopolitical location
• Air transport has been both a major driver and indicator of the growing
importance of the Middle East in the global economy
• Over the past ten years, Middle Eastern airlines have spearheaded
growth in the region. They have extended their presence to five
continents, enabling air traffic to grow twice as fast as the economy
• Since 2003 the capacity in terms of available seats has quadrupled to
over 90 billion ASK
• The Middle East is the only region in the world where the twin-aisle fleet
is bigger than the single aisle in numbers of aircraft
• This aircraft capacity has been a key enabler of airline growth in
the region in recent years
• Long haul traffic has been growing at 11 percent over the past 20
years, outperforming short haul
• A third of all passengers travelling on Middle East carriers are on a
connecting flights, but no necessarily connecting in the Middle East
• However, the share of connecting traffic passing through the Middle
East, i.e. not starting or finishing the journeys there, is just 19% of the
regions total origin and destination traffic
Middle East
2,361 NEW DELIVERIES
25% REPLACEMENT
75% FOR GROWTH
62% WILL BE WIDE- BODIES DUE TO THE POSITION THE REGION IS CREATING FOR ITSELF AS A MAJOR GLOBAL HUB, AND THE SUCCESS OF ITS AIRLINES
065Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers064
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segment
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
547
886
551
377
Middle East
5.8%
Asia- Paci�c
6.3%
North America
7.1%
Africa
6.6%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 431
2034
1,018
Beginning 2015
New deliveries
2,361
7,792
Growth 1,774
Fleet in service evolution Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
4.2%
Intra-regional & domestic 5.8% Inter-regional 6.0%
2015 1,018
2034 2,792
Total traf�c 6.0%
Real GDP 3.8%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
2,361
CIS
5.3%Europe 4.6%
Total RPK traf�c growth
Middle East
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1% 4.6%4.8%
6.0% 7.1%
Latin America
7.7%
Replacement 587
Results Flying by Numbers066 067Flying by Numbers
• The region’s real GDP growth is expected to average 3.6% per year
over the 2014-2034 period, above that forecast globally
• Together with the regions large and growing urban populations
propensity to travel in the region is expected to develop further,
with countries like Chile, Brazil and Colombia, reaching the levels
achieved by more mature economies by 2034
• Traffic growth to/from/within Latin America and the Caribbean is
expected to expand at an annual 4.7% rate, above the 4.6% world
annual rate
• Three out of the top twenty largest traffic flows continue to be
linked to the region
• Traffic within the region (domestic and intra-regional) will help to drive
passenger growth, representing more than 35% of the total by 2034,
above the current share which is ~30%
• The LCC’s steady expansion was mainly concentrated on the Brazilian
and Mexican domestic markets. It is expected however, that airlines
offering low-cost services will find new markets, flying longer, thus
also stimulating intra-regional traffic
• Between 1994-2014, airlines in the region have expanded their
average aircraft size per single-aisle flight at an annual rate of 0.8%,
close to the 0.9% registered worldwide over the same period
Latin America & Caribbean
2,510 NEW DELIVERIES
39% REPLACEMENT
61% FOR GROWTH
79% WILL BE SINGLE- AISLES DRIVEN BY STRONG GROWTH IN AIR TRAVEL DOMESTICALLY AND AROUND THE REGION
Flying by Numbers068 069Flying by Numbers
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segment
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
382
1,992
108 28
Latin America
5.3%
Asia- Paci�c
5.9%
North America
4.5% Middle East
7.7% Africa
5.0%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 291
2034
1,266
Beginning 2015
New deliveries
2,510
2,801
Growth 1,535
Fleet in service evolution Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
4.2%
Intra-regional & domestic 5.3% Inter-regional 4.3%
2015 1,266
2034 2,801
Total traf�c 4.7%
Real GDP 3.6%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
2,510
CIS
5.3%Europe 3.5%
Total RPK traf�c growth
Latin America
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1% 4.6%4.4%
4.7%4.9% Replacement 975
Results Flying by Numbers070 071Flying by Numbers
1,288 NEW DELIVERIES THE MAJORITY WILL BE FOR GROWTH
85% WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES
THE CIS PASSENGER FLEET IS FORECAST TO MORE THAN DOUBLE TO
2,016 AIRCRAFT
• In 2014, a number of the countries in the region maintained solid
economic performance. Uzbekistan and Moldovan real GDP grew
by 6.9 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. In 2015, CIS countries
excluding Russia will continue to grow at 2.4 percent according to
the IMF
• In the longer term, air travel consistently outperforms the
economy. Over the past fifteen years, real GDP grew on average at
4.3 percent, while traffic increased by 8.5 percent
• Travel and tourism have the potential to become a much stronger
driver for the region’s economies
• The share of Russian tourism in the world is less than one percent,
while its economy represents 2.4 percent of global GDP
• Over the past ten years, the number of passengers flying to and from
emerging economies has reached 34 million in 2013, compared to less
than ten million in 2004
• Travel to the Asia-Pacific from the region has increased by a
multiple of four
• On average, the yearly growth in travel with developing markets was
15.8 percent, 4.3 percent above the rate with developed countries
• With further strengthening of trade with fast-growing economies the
trend is likely to continue
• Preliminary figures for 2014 suggest that China is taking the lead
in terms of tourist visits to Russia (10-15 percent growth).
Inbound tourism from Korea has increased by 70 percent after a visa
simplification process introduced in 2013
CIS
073Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers072
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segment
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
138
1,101
25 24
CIS
4.3%
Asia- Paci�c
5.9%
North America
4.4%
Latin America
5.3%
Middle East
6.6% Africa
5.0%
Europe
4.6%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 728
Replacement 194
2034
922
Beginning 2015
New deliveries
1,288
2,016
Growth 1,094
Fleet in service evolution Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
2.0%
Intra-regional & domestic 4.3% Inter-regional 5.1%
2015 922
2034 2,016
Total traf�c 4.8%
Real GDP 2.1%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
1,288
Total RPK traf�c growth
World
CIS
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0% 4.1% 4.6%
5.5%
4.2% 4.8%
Results Flying by Numbers074 075Flying by Numbers
11,117 NEW DELIVERIES
9% REPLACEMENT
91% FOR GROWTH
75% WILL BE SINGLE-AISLES AS INTER-REGIONAL FLYING GROWS
FLEET SET TO GROW
170% BY 2034
• Covering about 30 million km2, Africa is comprised of 54 countries,
more than any other continent, even surpassing Europe with 47, and
Asia with 44
• Africa’s population doubled between 1982-2009 according to the
UN, and is today estimated at 1.1 billion representing approximately
15% of the World’s population
• Growing faster even than China and India. It is estimated that one in
five people will live in Africa by the end of our forecast period in 2034
• There are 54 African cities with more than 1 million people and this
number is forecasted to grow to 93 by 2030
• According to the United Nations, the share of Africans living in urban
areas will reach 50% by 2034
• Inter-continental traffic with Africa is largely focused on Europe
which accounts for almost 60% of the total
• In recent years, Asia-Pacific and the Middle-East have gained
importance representing more than 33% of traffic in 2013 compared
to 25% ten years ago
• Domestic traffic within African countries remains the primary market
for African air travellers
• However, Intra-regional traffic between African countries
has grown faster than domestic traffic over the last 10 years,
supported by the growing African urban population and African intra-
regional trade
Africa
077Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers076
Number of new aircraft New deliveries by segmentFleet in service evolution
31 58
Small Twin-Aisle
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
Very Large
Single- Aisle
194
834
Africa
6.4%
Asia- Paci�c
7.3%
North America
4.8%
Latin America
5.0%
Middle East
6.6%
Europe
4.7%
Domestic and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service & Remarketed 498
598
New deliveries
1,117
1,615
Growth 1,017
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats ** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
5.0%
Intra-regional & domestic 6.4% Inter-regional 5.5%
2015 598
2034 1,615
Total traf�c 5.6%
Real GDP 4.6%
Fleet in service 20 year
new deliveries
1,117
Total RPK traf�c growth
World
Africa
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0% 4.1% 4.6%
6.2%
5.1% 5.6%
2034Beginning 2015
CIS
5.0%
Replacement 100
Results Flying by Numbers078 079Flying by Numbers
Freighter forecast
FREIGHTER DELIVERIES
EXPRESS AND REGIONAL TRAFFIC WILL BOOST THE SMALL AND MID SIZE MARKET
BELLY CAPACITY WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT LARGE FREIGHTER PROSPECTS
FREIGHT FORECAST 2014
• After having stagnated for almost three years, the air freight industry
resumed its progress in 2014 by posting 4.6% growth compared to
2013
• In the summer of 2014, total air freight traffic surpassed the peak it
reached in 2011
• Air freight is forecast to grow at 4.4% over the next 20 years. This will be
largely driven by emerging markets where both general and express
cargo are expected to continue to expand
• Just over 50% of the cargo traffic in 2014 was transported in the “belly”
hold of passenger aircraft, that is in the space below the main deck
where passenger luggage is also stowed
• Due to the addition of more cargo capable passenger aircraft, the
market share for belly capacity is expected to continue to grow in the
future, especially on inter-continental traffic
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Large freightersMid-size freightersSmall freighters
Conversion and new build
609
1,129
617
FREIGHTER DELIVERIES OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Source: Airbus GMF 2015
083Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers082
North America
Latin America
Middle East Asia-Paci�c
Europe & CIS
991
795
462 337
804
309
172 65
Africa
89 50 169
77
THE FUTURE FREIGHTER FLEET DISTRIBUTION WILL REFLECT THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF EMERGING MARKETS Sources: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND
The North American fleet is mainly a replacement market
The Asia-Pacific fleet is set to triple as a growth market
World fleet
2015 1,633
2034 2,687
Flying by Numbers084 085Flying by Numbers
THREE KEY FUTURE TRENDS FOR THE CARGO INDUSTRY:
• Express will continue to develop more rapidly than
general cargo, this driven by both international traf-
fic and domestic and regional traffic in emerging
regions such as China and South East Asia
• Medium haul regional traffic will surge with the
development of cargo networks in regions such as
intra-Asia, within Africa and Latin America. This will
drive the need for mid-sized freighter aircraft
• Belly capacity will continue to grow especially on
long haul routes where new cargo friendly pas-
senger wide-bodies are expected to progressively
replace large freighters thanks to very competitive
economics
2,355 Conversions & New build
74% Small & Mid-size deliveries
Fleet to > Double
Flying by Numbers086 087Flying by Numbers
Summary & methodology
Africa Asia- Pacific
CIS Europe Lat. & Caribb.
Middle East
North America
20 year new
deliveries
Single-Aisle 834 8,329 1,101 5,052 1,992 886 4,733 22,927
Small Twin-Aisle
194 2,554 138 787 382 547 582 5,184
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
58 1,089 25 370 108 551 194 2,395
Very Large Aircraft
31 624 24 156 28 377 35 1,275
TOTAL 1,117 12,596 1,288 6,365 2,510 2,361 5,544 31,781
Africa Asia- Pacific
CIS Europe Lat. & Caribb.
Middle East
North America
20 year new
deliveries
Single-Aisle 834 8,329 1,101 5,052 1,992 886 4,733 22,927
Small Twin-Aisle
198 2,579 140 796 389 552 718 5,372
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
62 1,179 39 413 132 596 314 2,734
Very Large Aircraft
36 726 32 192 29 423 113 1,550
TOTAL 1,130 12,813 1,312 6,453 2,542 2,457 5,878 32,585
Africa Asia- Pacific
CIS Europe Lat. & Caribb.
Middle East
North America
20 year new deliveries
Small - - - - - - - -
Mid-size 6 72 13 37 31 30 223 412
Large 7 145 11 51 1 66 111 392
TOTAL 13 217 24 88 32 96 334 804
NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
SUMMARY RESULTS
NEW PASSENGER & FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGIONNEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Africa Asia- Pacific
CIS Europe Lat. & Caribb.
Middle East
North America
20 year new deliveries
Small 38 319 8 81 84 5 74 609
Mid-size 24 113 22 122 37 25 375 718
Large 10 77 14 28 - 19 77 225
TOTAL 72 509 44 231 121 49 526 1,552
CONVERTED FREIGHT AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES BY REGION
Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats and freight aircraft ≥10 tons
Flying by Numbers090 091Flying by Numbers
SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT
Disclaimer This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as anticipates, believes, estimates, expects, intends, plans, projects, may, forecast and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp- up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.
These factors include but are not limited to:
• Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cy- clical nature of some of Airbus Group businesses;
• Significant disruptions in air travel (inclu- ding as a result of terrorist attacks);
• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar;
• The successful execution of internal per- formance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts;
• Product performance risks, as well as pro- gramme development and management risks;
• Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues;
• Competition and consolidation in the ae- rospace and defence industry;
• Significant collective bargaining labour disputes;
• The outcome of political and legal pro- cesses, including the availability of govern- ment financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procu- rement budgets;
• Research and development costs in connection with new products;
• Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions;
• Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technologi- cal risks and uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation/publication speaks as of the date of this presentation/publication release. Airbus Group undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise.
093Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers092
AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France © AIRBUS S.A.S. 2015 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its logo and the product names are registered trademarks.
Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support 20150603. Photos by K. Ginn, P. Powietrzynski, M. Buschbell Steeger, BFG Images, Nikada, L. Patrizi, O. Korshakov, S. Ramadier, A. Doumenjou, C. Koshorst.
Reference D14029465 issue 2. August, 2015. Printed in France by Art & Caractère.
Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.
This brochure is printed on Stucco Old mill - Premium white and Offset standard. This paper is produced in factories that are accredited EMAS and certified ISO 9001-14001, PEFC and FSC CoC. It is produced using pulp that has been whitened without either chlorine or acid. The paper is entirely recyclable and is produced from trees grown in sustainable forest resources.
The printing inks use organic pigments or minerals. There is no use of basic dyes or dangerous metals from the cadmium, lead, mercury or hexavalent chromium group.
The printer, Art & Caractère (France 81500), is engaged in a waste management and recycling programme for all resulting by-products.
G lo
b a l M
a rk
e t F
o re
c a st 2
0 1 5 2
0 3 4
Get the GMF app
#AGMF
Find us on Facebook
